FORECAST RESULTS OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Posted on January 24th, 2010

By DR M D P DISSANAYAKE

For the Presidential Election there are 22 electoral districts with 14,288,502 voters eligible to vote. In 2005 election North and East voters did not participate. With their participation in this election, about 80% or 11.3 million voters are likely to cast their ballots.

Even though the election is seen as a two cornered contest, the presence of Mr Sivajilingam of TNA cannot be ignored. He is a popular MP in the area, in as much as Douglas Devanandan and Karuna Muralitharan. Mr Sivajilingam is expected to cut into the votes of both leading candidates. Devanandan and Karuna’s presence will also be a significant factor for the President Mahinda Rajapakse. Mr Sambandan has not been able to attract many supporters for Sarath Fonseka in the North and East. In fact, the secret agreement with TNA leader became a liability for SF rather than an asset. The secret agreement is now in the public arena jointly signed by SF, RW and Sambandan, without the signature of JVP.

SF is likely to win Batticaloa, Jaffna, Kandy. Nuwaraeliya and Puttalam Districts. Digamadulla, Trincomalee and Wanni will be too close to call. In Colombo District, Colombo North, East, West , Central, Borella, Dehiwela, Motaruwa will be likely winners for SF. Avissawella, Homagama, Kesbewa, Kolonnawa, Kotte, Kaduwela, Maharagama and Ratmalana are likely to be won by MR.

MR is likely to score heavily in Anuradhapura, Badulla, Galle, Gampaha, Hambantota, Kalutara, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Matale, Matara, Moneragala, Polonnaruwa, and Ratnapura Districts.

With these assumptions, Sivaji , SF and MR are likely to score 3.2%, 35.4%, 61.4% respectively with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%. During the cooling-off period of 48 hours leading up to the election date, it is possible voter sentiments may favour the incumbent President to some extent. .

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