Block All Avenues of Violent Regime Change
Posted on April 11th, 2012

– Kumar Moses

Peaceful regime change is a right of the people. But violent undemocratic regime change is a threat to that right.

Having failed to secure a regime change in the island through peaceful means, western destabilization agents (including Australian) will surely try out militant means. If their regime change tactics work, this country will lose all hope of prosperity following 30 years of war and will end up like Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, Nicaragua, Columbia, Iran or Indonesia in 1998. That affects everybody adversely except for warlords and hence it must be averted using whatever means that work.

There are two essential ingredients to avert violent regime change. The first is to remain popular among people. If rulers and their henchmen keep abusing their power, that makes the regime unpopular in a day. If the cost of living increases relative to the cost of dying that turns people into rebels overnight. If corruption spirals out of control that too drives people into extreme measures against the regime. It is up to the government to reduce these incidents and take control of the situation so that people will not rebel against it. Extreme economic conditions led to a violent regime change in Sri Lanka in 2001. Once the movement was in motion, using violence exacerbated the situation. It is the task of the government to keep people reasonably happy and safe to avoid a mass rebellion.

At the same time the military must be geared to prevent any violent move by any quarter to change the regime. Although the military has successfully routed the JVP twice and completely annihilated the LTTE, new warfare methods can still destabilise the nation. There are a few weak points that must be guarded to avoid easy means of violent regime change.

Close to 20 heads of state have died from plane crashes the most recent was the Polish President in 2010. Following these tragic events violent protests break up aiding rebels. This is one area any violent regime change agent must be looking at in Sri Lanka. LTTE used Surface to Air Missiles (SAMs). These missiles can be donated to terrorist groups easily. They can be smuggled into the island with relative ease especially through the northern border that is violated daily. Once in the island, they can be fired with ease without any harm on the persons firing it. If a presidential plane or a helicopter is brought down, that essentially brings down the government. This possibility must be blocked by stringent military checks and modern counterflares on planes and helicopters used in VIP travel. Complacency after the annihilation of the LTTE should not lead to take risks.

Countering violent regime change tactics also involve retaliation. If a regime is changed violently by a group with aid from western governments, independent armed groups should be created well in advance. These groups can get into action when the new rebel government starts to loose its gloss. These groups should be provided with SAMs and small arms. Similar groups were used very successfully against the second JVP insurrection (1989) and against Tamil terror groups in the east in 1990. They operated in coordination with security forces. Certain types of attacks that are not traditionally carried out by a legitimate army can be delegated to these groups. Violent regime change cannot be met entirely through peaceful means. Violent means must be used to counter and re-change regimes that grab power using force.

One major drawback in the Libyan, Afghan and Syrian response to violence has been the inability to hunt down rebel leaders. In order to avoid this danger, all potential troublemakers should be identified. Access to them must be maintained at all times without allowing them to save themselves. If violence is unleashed against democratically elected governments, rebel leaders behind such violence should be handled without delay.

Conventional thinking does not offer solutions to modern problems facing small nations. By definition smaller nations are thought to be easily submissible. Driven by this mentality, powerful nations seeking regime change provide weapons to small groups within these nations to take on government troops. It is a matter of time since they tried these tactics in Sri Lanka after their peaceful means and conspiracies failed.

Peaceful existence of the nation demands the continuation of Long Range Recognisance Patrol (LRRP) and other deep space operators. Modern counter-insurgency trained combat troops are a must. Developed secret services with sufficient decentralisation and at the same time with required coordination are needed. However, these powers should not be used against peaceful and legitimate regime change activities which are a right of the people.

It is very likely that a rebellion that tried to grab power in the island will have the complete blessing of the LTTE Rump. It would be foolish to launch any violent attempt on the government that either goes against the LTTE Rump or ignores the vast resources it has. This makes it very difficult to control as the trouble will not concentrate on a city, district or province but will spread right throughout the country. At present there is a large military concentration on the north for good reasons. North still is the potentially most dangerous part of the country. However, rapid deployment capabilities must be maintained. Sufficient numbers of Mi-8, Mi-17 and Mi-24 military helicopters and military transport planes should be maintained to move a large number of armed troops within minutes to any part of the country. Distribution of food, medicine and access to hospitals and medical care should be strictly controlled by the government in case of a rebellion denying these to terrorist groups.

These means can not only overcome violent regime change operations but also deter them from recurring. It is foolhardy to think peaceful times will just continue without groups of psychopaths causing havoc. In fact peaceful times are more prone to violence! A look at the past 100 years indicates that all violent incidents that stopped the nation occurred during peaceful times. These include the riots of 1915, 1939, 1953, 1956, 1958, 1977, 1981 and 1983; insurgencies in 1971 and 1988-89 (when the IPKF engaged the LTTE and relative peace prevailed in areas outside the north and the east). Peaceful times are sure attractions for those who cannot fathom the idea of normalcy and economic development. If they launch their onslaughts during war, Emergency Regulations, public sentiment and the readiness of security forces work against them. That is why violence acts by nameless rebel groups take place during times of peace. Needless to say similar events around the world “inspire” these crackpots. Che Guvara inspired the JVP to launch their first insurrection and Palestinian terrorist groups inspired the LTTE.

Arabic Spring and other violent regime change events sweeping the world provide the ideal backdrop to any potential troublemakers in the island. Now is the time to be vigilant. There is a new enemy in the neighbourhood. In 2005 the then Indian High Commissioner Nirupama Rao made it no secret India expected a regime change at the Presidential Election. TNA leaders, UPF leader Chandrasekaran, UNP Jayalath and Mano Ganesan frequently travelled to Tamil Nadu during this time for obvious reasons. Similarly US ambassador Patricia Butenis hoped and worked tirelessly for regime change in 2010. Their failure to achieve it peacefully indicates violent means are now back on the table.

8 Responses to “Block All Avenues of Violent Regime Change”

  1. Susantha Wijesinghe Says:

    Ranil and Chandrika are leaving for India soon. News. People who cross to countries to discuss regime changes in Sri Lanka, and start rebbelions, will have to be on the classified lists of unpatriotic perpeTRAITORS. There has to be a seperate code of punishment ready for them. Jail should not be an option.

    It is time the government keep close tab on the likely Rebel Leaders, and physically not lose sight of them, 24/7/365. There should be small contingents of service personnel detailed on this job, right now, preferably in civvies. IT IS BEST TO GET READY TO MEET THE START OFF, rather than be complacent.

    There has to be a time the malignant, cantankerous, rebel groups looking for violent regime changes, has to be put down for good. THERE SHOULD BE NO REBEL LEADERS IN SRI LANKA.

  2. Dilrook Says:

    Going through what happens in lawless Middle East, it is better to use force to nip it in the bud.

  3. Lorenzo Says:

    “Ranil and Chandrika are leaving for India soon. News.”

    Oh! Fantastic! These two TOGETHER totally stuffed things up. In to their old habits.

    “Jail should not be an option.”

    Agree. Crims operate FROM jail! That is their HEADQUARTERS! No rent, telephones, staff (jailors), safety, not subject to police action, free food, etc.

  4. Marco Says:

    Tsunami warning in Sri Lanka

    http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/?region=3&id=indian.TSUIOX.2012.04.11.0845

  5. Marco Says:

    EVALUATION

    EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A
    WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THAT CAN AFFECT COASTLINES ACROSS
    THE ENTIRE INDIAN OCEAN BASIN.

    HOWEVER – IT IS NOT KNOWN THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS
    WATCH IS BASED ONLY ON THE EARTHQUAKE EVALUATION. AUTHORITIES IN
    THE REGION SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THE
    POSSIBILITY OF A WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI.

    ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
    WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
    ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
    LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
    SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

    SRI LANKA DONDRA_HEAD 5.9N 80.6E 1039Z 11 APR
    TRINCOMALEE 8.7N 81.3E 1051Z 11 APR
    COLOMBO 6.9N 79.8E 1120Z 11 APR
    JAFFNA 9.9N 80.0E 1231Z 11 APR

  6. aravinda Says:

    Regime change specialists have realised Sri Lankan government is popular, can not be defeated in polls. Like Kumar Moses points out, attempts may be made on President’s life. Any harm to him could destabilise Sri Lanka in short term. That is the time they will reignite terrorism. We must bring forward mandatory death penalty for terrorism. The TNA/LTTE baboons are already gloating of regime change.

  7. Voice123 Says:

    By all means be prepared to counter violent regime change events but we must go further and “creatively engage” the West and India where violent regime change is likely to originate. Give them a bit here and there if they will return some benefit to us. Think of these countries like cobras. Its better not to shake your fist at it angrily and wait for it to bite you – instead better to charm it or hypnotise it with all kinds of tantalising possibilities and possibly profit from the spectacle.

  8. Vis8 Says:

    How did the Australian High-Commissioner in Sri Lanka have the passport of the former terrorist Gunasekeran (aka Mudalige) (now pretending to be jvp-like) in her possession?????

    “Many an eye brow has been raised over Australian High Commissioner Robyn Mudie having in her possession the Australian passport issued to Noel Mudalige, the leader of the Frontline Socialist Party (FSP), who walked into the Crime Detective Bureau (CDB) headquarters, at Dematagoda yesterday.

    Immigration and Emigration sources told The Island that when Mudalige declared that he didn’t have his passport with him the police had requested HC Mudie to issue him with an emergency travel document.

    But, when HC Mudie returned yesterday morning to accompany the Australian to the BIA, she produced the original passport of Mudalige.”

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