Why the Northern Provincial Election Will be the Waterloo of UPFA
Posted on May 7th, 2013

Dilrook Kannangara

When 13A Nazis join Regime Change agents it creates real change. This is the latest ploy of the two and apparently a seamless one. It has the potential to work better than all previous attempts because it attacks the heart of the success of UPFA since 2004. UPFA’s election success is no match to the UNP’s 17 year rule. However, the common theme running in both is that ruling parties remained better than the opposition in national popularity. This can only be broken piecemeal, province by province.

Twenty Years Ago

After winning all national and provincial elections from 1977 to 1989, UNP’s collapse started in May 1993 with the Provincial Council election. PA won the Western Provincial Council while retaining a commanding stake in North Western Provincial Council and the Southern Provincial Council. Soon the Southern Provincial Council collapsed as UNP’s Fransiscu abduction didn’t work. UNP’s defeat was earth shattering and ignited a national wave that continued till November 1994.

However, it all started from the defeat at the Western Provincial Council election that proved to the voters UNP regime was not invincible. It was this perceived invincibility that saved the UNP regime for 17 years. It marked the beginning of the end of the UNP. Even if Premadasa survived the attack, UNP would have lost the election badly. In fact, had the UNP not got the sympathy votes it gathered in hundreds of thousands following his death, its defeat would have been far worse. It was 13A Nazis that pushed Premadasa into this trap and they are back. Premadasa’s prominent advisor of cock-and-bull theories is back advising the government the need to implement 13A. He has trapped the government to his 13A promise he made to UNHRC in 2009. He is on the verge of taking his second regime victim. No wonder he is the favoured regime change agent of the West and India.

Manipulating Premadasa

When the 13A was inserted into the Constitution, Prime Minister Premadasa was not a supporter of it. UNP parliamentary group voted for it in fear of President Jayawardena threatening to dissolve the parliament the very moment which would have ended not just the time in power but also the lives of most UNP MPs at a time when both LTTE and JVP were hunting them day and night. When Premadasa took over, he was no fan of provincial administration. He quickly introduced Grama Niladhari officers to decentralise power undercutting provincial councils.

Provincial Councils were introduced mainly for the benefit of the North and the East. But Preamadasa dissolved the North-East Provincial Council and never held elections for it. The lame argument of war doesn’t hold water as the NEPC elections of 1988 and 1994 were held amidst full scale war!

Premadasa was wise enough not to hold an election for the north-east. However, he was caught off-guard when a prominent advisor and 13A advocate advised him to hold provincial elections as scheduled. Buoyant by winning Local Government (LG) elections in 1991 despite the No Confidence Motion and David Gladstone affair, Premadasa ventured into provincial elections. People came to know the puffiness of the UNP by 1993 when it was getting extremely unpopular but few thought the main opposition was any more popular. Had Premadasa survived, UNP would have suffered even worse defeats. President Wijetunga was very efficient in turning back the unpopularity by large measure yet lost the 1994 election.

Unwinnable Northern Provincial Election

It is crystal clear the Northern Provincial election scheduled for September this year is unwinnable. Since 2009, TNA has strengthened its position further. At last year’s Eastern Provincial election, TNA won almost all Tamil votes in Trincomlaee and Digamadulla districts. TNA votes percentage equalled the Tamil population percentage of each of these districts which basically means TNA has emerged the sole representative of Tamils in these two districts in 2012. In addition, TNA won all Tamil majority electorates where it contested in 2010, 2011 and 2012 local government elections.

UPFA was defeated not only by the TNA in past elections in the north. UNP and DNA also defeated it in 2005 and 2010 respectively when the best candidate was put forward by the UPFA. TNA and ACTC constituent parties have won the north at every General Election held since 1947 barring only the 1994 election which was only held in army camps in the north.

If a free and fair election is held in the north, where Tamil nationalism sells faster than any other commodity or ideology, with the participation of Tamil political parties, there is no doubt local versions of ADMK and AIADMK will win the poll.

Thereafter it will be difficult to contain the fallout of the UPFA from its invincible position. It is this fallout that injects hope to the now hopeless UNP and JVP for a strong comeback. UNP and JVP will consequently do well at other provincial elections that are due soon (Western, Central and North-Western).    

This is what brought 13A Nazis and Regime Change agents together in Geneva in 2009. After winning the election, TNA, TULF and ACTC led Northern Provincial Council will be clamouring for all the provincial powers as stated in the Constitution (13A) which include land and police powers. In addition, rehabilitation, prisons, irrigation, relief services and agriculture are also provincial powers. Even a pro-government Chief Justice cannot creatively interpret the Constitution. He has to interpret it as it is, which may end his career too. Legal battles for power will attract international actors. Government response, whatever it may be, will be heavily criticised and unpopular in other provinces. It will further devalue the UPFA popularity.

All in all the Northern Provincial Election will be the waterloo of the UPFA. 13A will once again prove that it is still the best regime change tool around.

16 Responses to “Why the Northern Provincial Election Will be the Waterloo of UPFA”

  1. Lorenzo Says:

    Can’t wait till the govt LOSES the north PC election to see BR’s poker face. Stupidity comes with a HEAVY price tag.

    IF govt. win the north PC election THIS TIME, people will say 13 amenmend is harmless. So it is good if govt. loses. The defeat will penetrate even the THICKEST heads.

  2. Vijendra Says:

    As they say, “a donkey can be taken to water; but you can not make it drink!”. The current MR government loses all its glory of the past and credibility as a fair and farsighted of the Singhalese as a patriotic government

  3. Vijendra Says:

    As they say, “a donkey can be taken to water; but you can not make it drink!”. The current MR government will lose all its glory of the past and the credibility of the Singhalese as a government that is playing fair by them. The 13A is the noose by which this government will hang itself to die. Mother Lanka will suffer fools!

  4. mario_perera Says:

    Dear Dilrook,

    My first ever contribution to Lankaweb was to debate your assertion that the EALAM WAR WAS WINNABLE. I lost. Ever since I consider your vision of the future as prophetic.

    I agree with Lorenzo that “Stupidity comes with a HEAVY price tag”, and direct the same reproach to the government as Vijendra: “Mother Lanka will suffer fools!”

    Yet, as the saying goes: hope springs eternal in the human breast. I would still like to believe that a third force will rise and put an end to this folly. The only such third force at this juncture is the Maha Sangha. We have historical precedents in the aborted pacts of the past that were attempted betrayals of Mother Lanka. But this situation outdoes the rest in its gravity.

    Mario Perera
    Kadawata

  5. mario_perera Says:

    Judas sold Christ for 30 pieces of silver. MR and family are selling Mother Lanka for an International Booze which is the Commonwealth Party. They will come see, party and enjoy on the back of the poor population. They might even condescend to say a word or two of praise for the road construction projects of MR. But once they get back and the effects of intoxication wane, they will all join in the same chorus as before. MR would ultimately have given too much for too little. Already the absence of the queen has taken the glamour out of the party.

    One cannot but help comparing this situation with that of the 1976 Non-Aligned Summit that Sirima B convoked while the country was reduced to eating manioc and sweet potato. Just one year later she was thrown out without even the consolation of the seat of leader of the opposition.

    The lessons of history are there to see, but the people concerned do not want to learn. What matters if the passing glory of the few.

    The only winner of this exercise will be the TNA, TN and India. Mother Lanka would have been reduced to a worm under their triumphant heel.

    Mario Perera
    Kadawata

  6. lingamAndy Says:

    Why the Northern Provincial Election Will be the Waterloo of UPFA- NO
    it is starting point of United mother Lanka for two party politics that is UNP & SLFP !!! (all other minority party will joint with these two with their identity ) !
    begining of end of Tamil party politic ( they will win this time not next time as what happened in EP ) !

  7. Fran Diaz Says:

    NP PC elections with 13-A in place is a recipe for suicide of a Nation ! Add LLRC & CHOGM for Arsenic & Cadmium in the political waters of GoSL !

  8. Fran Diaz Says:

    I do not wish sound as being in the way of forging genuine friendships with any groups of people or other countries – but when once bitten by different groups, it is sound policy to have protective measures in place, prior to proceeding ….

  9. lingamAndy Says:

    when once bitten by different groups, it is sound policy to have protective measures in place, prior to proceeding …. ! different group !!!
    13A untouchable !!!

  10. Fran Diaz Says:

    Andy,

    Transfer the ’13-A Untouchable’ to Tamil Nadu Nilgiri Mts. along with Tamil Eelam. That’s where it belongs and that’s where it should stay.

  11. lingamAndy Says:

    Tamil Nadu Nilgiri Mts.- I do not know where ther are,but I only know Mother Lanka , Japanaya , Nagadiva !!!

  12. Fran Diaz Says:

    Andy,

    You really ought to visit the Nilgiri Mts. It is a great pity that Sri Lanka Tamils do not know Tamil Nadu which is the true Homeland of ALL Tamil People.

    The Nilgiris are truly beautiful and apt for Eelam. I mean what I say.

  13. lingamAndy Says:

    Fran Diaz
    We ve more beautful place in Mother lanka I ‘ve not visited yet
    eg: Thirukonamali ( Capital of TE) I ‘ve not visted yet , Polanaruvai our last Kigtom time histroty (Eellalan ) not visted yet etc….
    also so many my sinhala sakothrays place I ‘ve visted yet in mother Lanka …
    do you thing I need to visit India before visiting these my own land ??? NO

    I am Lanka putha(lvavan) !

  14. lingamAndy Says:

    Also
    Eelam for Eelavar not for Tamils , We are Eelavar in sinhala it means Hela !

  15. Fran Diaz Says:

    Andy,

    What you say is not logical. Eelam was never meant for the others of Lanka. Eelam was a Tamil ONLY state.

    Please let us stay with ‘Sri Lanka’ for ALL Sri Lankans without confusing one and all with word play.

    13-A and ‘Lanka Putha’ are not compatible either.

  16. Fran Diaz Says:

    Re “Eelam’ :

    Dear Andy,

    Let us transfer the word Eelam to join Valhalla, Utopia, Nirvana, Heaven, that Blissful state of the human Heart. We are One with you in seeking that state of being in our Hearts. We are brothers and sisters in the truest sense in our Hearts of human love, affection, compassion and kindness to each other.

    Isn’t that what the Saivant Hindu Gurus teach as the Goal to reach in our common brief life on earth ? In this beautiful Goal of Bliss of the Heart, we are all One. I am a Buddhist, Saivant Hindu, Christian, Islamist, all at once.

    Let us seek that Goal of Bliss, Andy, and everything else will fall into place. True Liberation for all.

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