Jayalalitha as PM Poses an Existential Threat to Sri Lanka
Posted on December 20th, 2013
A couple of years ago it was only a hypothesis, but now it is a possibility. India goes to polls next year. Congress cannot retain its position of power as recent state elections show. BJP is more likely to win a higher number of seats. If BJP wins but fails to get the numbers, Modi will have to compromise by allowing a small party leader to PM post and Jayalalitha is at the top of the queue. If Congress can amass support from various small parties she still has a very strong chance of becoming Prime Minister. A third avenue is to get small parties combined and then bargain for the two big parties’ support. Even in this case she has a strong possibility of getting the top job.
Kamaraj and Moopanar came close to becoming PM but couldn’t. This time around, Tamils are determined to make it a reality.
“In the past, people from Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka were elected for the Prime Minister’s post. The time is now ripe for a Tamil to lead the country,” said a resolution passed by the AIADMK’s executive committee and general council.
To take matters into her own hands, she has decided to contest all 39 Lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu alone without being an affiliate of the two major parties. This gives the maneuverability in power politics. She is immensely popular among Tamils thanks to her ultra-racist political stance.
In order to form a government, a coalition must obtain 272 seats in 543 member Lok Sabha. According to predictions no party or election coalition can win an outright majority. UPA (Congress coalition) and NDA (BJP coalition) will obtain between 130 to 160 seats as per predictions.
Although many small parties will have seats and will be willing to join any coalition, five medium sized parties hold the key to any coalition that can obtain an outright majority. Three out of five would be socialist/communist parties each with around 25 to 30 seats. All India Trinamool Congress is also likely to win around 25 seats. However, BJP finds them out of reach due to their political ideologies going against that of the BJP. However, Jayalalitha’s AIADMK which is very flexible in its policy with an expected win of 31 seats will be a strong coalition partner. Unlike BJP leaders, the AIADMK leader has won the confidence of its growing Muslim minority.
Previous coalition governments too had to compromise on the post of Prime Minister. It is more likely to happen this time too unless BJP comes close to winning an outright majority.
Needless to say a Tamil Prime Minister is going to be a disaster for Sri Lanka. It poses an existential threat to the island nation and its native Sinhala population.
Quoted from the above article; [quote] lambasting the Congress-led government at the Centre for its “ineffectiveness” in handling the rise in price of essential commodities, “threats” posed by neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka, Jayalalithaa said the government had to be thrown out. “A strong government is needed to put down these countries. The administration at the Centre struggles with none to lead,” she said [ends].
It is crystal clear she is going to “put down” Sri Lanka if she comes to power. This may mean total anarchy in the island and a possible Indian invasion and attacks. Tamil Elam may become a reality if she ever becomes Indian Prime Minister.
Jayalalitha has another powerful trick up her sleeve ” USA. It is no secret USA backs Jayalalitha for the top post. Between Modi and Jayalalitha, USA will certainly opt for the latter. Given India’s growing strategic defence ties with USA, the parties will consider this factor with high importance.
Sri Lanka must prepare for this dangerous possibility unless this disaster can be averted early.