Jayalalitha as PM Poses an Existential Threat to Sri Lanka
Posted on December 20th, 2013
Dilrook Kannangara
A couple of years ago it was only a hypothesis, but now it is a possibility. India goes to polls next year. Congress cannot retain its position of power as recent state elections show. BJP is more likely to win a higher number of seats. If BJP wins but fails to get the numbers, Modi will have to compromise by allowing a small party leader to PM post and Jayalalitha is at the top of the queue. If Congress can amass support from various small parties she still has a very strong chance of becoming Prime Minister. A third avenue is to get small parties combined and then bargain for the two big parties’ support. Even in this case she has a strong possibility of getting the top job.
Kamaraj and Moopanar came close to becoming PM but couldn’t. This time around, Tamils are determined to make it a reality.
“In the past, people from Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka were elected for the Prime Minister’s post. The time is now ripe for a Tamil to lead the country,” said a resolution passed by the AIADMK’s executive committee and general council.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Time-is-ripe-for-Tamil-to-lead-the-country-AIADMK-says/articleshow/27666187.cms
To take matters into her own hands, she has decided to contest all 39 Lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu alone without being an affiliate of the two major parties. This gives the maneuverability in power politics. She is immensely popular among Tamils thanks to her ultra-racist political stance.
In order to form a government, a coalition must obtain 272 seats in 543 member Lok Sabha. According to predictions no party or election coalition can win an outright majority. UPA (Congress coalition) and NDA (BJP coalition) will obtain between 130 to 160 seats as per predictions.
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-10-17/india/43142991_1_ysr-congress-seats-times-now-cvoter
Although many small parties will have seats and will be willing to join any coalition, five medium sized parties hold the key to any coalition that can obtain an outright majority. Three out of five would be socialist/communist parties each with around 25 to 30 seats. All India Trinamool Congress is also likely to win around 25 seats. However, BJP finds them out of reach due to their political ideologies going against that of the BJP. However, Jayalalitha’s AIADMK which is very flexible in its policy with an expected win of 31 seats will be a strong coalition partner. Unlike BJP leaders, the AIADMK leader has won the confidence of its growing Muslim minority.
Previous coalition governments too had to compromise on the post of Prime Minister. It is more likely to happen this time too unless BJP comes close to winning an outright majority.
Needless to say a Tamil Prime Minister is going to be a disaster for Sri Lanka. It poses an existential threat to the island nation and its native Sinhala population.
Quoted from the above article; [quote] lambasting the Congress-led government at the Centre for its “ineffectiveness” in handling the rise in price of essential commodities, “threats” posed by neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka, Jayalalithaa said the government had to be thrown out. “A strong government is needed to put down these countries. The administration at the Centre struggles with none to lead,” she said [ends].
It is crystal clear she is going to “put down” Sri Lanka if she comes to power. This may mean total anarchy in the island and a possible Indian invasion and attacks. Tamil Elam may become a reality if she ever becomes Indian Prime Minister.
Jayalalitha has another powerful trick up her sleeve – USA. It is no secret USA backs Jayalalitha for the top post. Between Modi and Jayalalitha, USA will certainly opt for the latter. Given India’s growing strategic defence ties with USA, the parties will consider this factor with high importance.
Sri Lanka must prepare for this dangerous possibility unless this disaster can be averted early.
December 20th, 2013 at 2:36 pm
Dilrook,
Indeed, Jayalolita, with a foot in both the BJP and the USA camps, can pose a serious threat to Sri Lanka with National elections looming in both countries.
As we recall, when she was Secretary of Defence, Billary Clinton visited Jayalolita and other TN politicians to orchestrate the last UNHCR vote against Sri Lanka. Unfortunately, Billary Clinton may become the next President of the US in the Presidential elections scheduled for 2016, giving Jayalolita greater power to undermine Sri Lanka.
Billary’s agenda in Tamil Nadu has far greater dimensions than throwing Sri Lanka to the wolves as a dispensible pawn in her great game of geopolitics. She saw that the Congress party was heading towards defeat, and decided to create a ally in the opposition so that whoever (Congress/BJP) wins the Lok Sabha elections, she is well poised to influence India’s Foreign and Economic Policy, and to moderate the impact of the BJP’s Hindu Nationalist policies aimed at the Evangelical Christian Movement, should the BJP rise to power.
She intends to use India as a counter to China and as a foil to Pakistan in its support for the Taliban in Afghanistan. Ahmed Karzai, who wants to reduce dependence on the US, has recently requested India to step in as its main supplier, not only of reconstruction aid, but also of military weapons, to defend against the Taliban/Al-Quaida forces. Little does he know that India is slowly becoming a puppet of the USA and will not buffer Afghanistan from US policies.
As a related subject, I am posting an Opinion article published in The Hindu newspaper in India on the Fish Poaching Issue. It is UNUSUALLY SUPPORTIVE of Sri Lanka. In this article The Hindu castigates the Tamil Nadu politicians of being emotional and obstructive but also of undermining international law.
WHY THIS SUDDEN TURNAROUND by The Hindu? All of a sudden The Hindu has woken up to these INCONTROVERTIBLE FACTS, while in the past they hid the facts and supported the Indian Tamil Fishermen on the same issue? Why?
The Reason, of course boils down Politics of the looming Lok Sabha Elections. The Hindu supports the Congress Party and castigated Sri Lanka on the Fish Poaching issue to support Karunanidhi who is a Congress Party ally. Now that the BJP, allied to Jayalolita, seems destined to govern India, it wants to attack Jayalolita.
BOTTOM LINE IS: Irrespective of whether the Congress or the BJP is in power, the Racist demagogues of Tamil Nadu will be an ally of the governing Coalition through either Karunanidhi or Jayalotlita. There is little to chosse between these two racist demagogues.
The Hindu’s suppor for Sri Lanka is just an ABERRATION reflecting the IMPENDING CHANGE OF THE GUARD in the Lok Sabha election. After the elections, The Hindu will revert to its usual political role of supporting Congress party’s interests through Karunanidhi’s DMK … which will mean supporting the Indian Tamil Fishermen’s Interests at Sri Lanka’s expense, DAMN the ILLEGALITY of it, and the UNDERMINING of India long-term interest in having a friendly ally in Sri Lanka.
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A sea of conflict
TheHindu.com
December 19, 2013
Dec 19 (Hindu) Tamil Nadu fishermen entering Sri Lankan waters interfere with the livelihood of Sri Lankan Tamils struggling to make a living from the sea after a brutal war
The haunting image – from a reporting assignment over a month ago – of an army of Indian trawlers charging towards the shore of Analativu, a small island in the northern tip of Sri Lanka, remains vivid in my memory.
Though there were no arrests reported that night, the Sri Lankan Navy, on several occasions before and after that, have arrested Indian fishermen on charges of trespassing. Not just in Analativu, but at different points off Sri Lanka’s northern and eastern coasts.
Indian fishermen have, over decades, fished in Sri Lankan waters – some have faced arrests; but the year 2013 has been particularly bad. A total of 600 fishermen from India – all from Tamil Nadu – were arrested by the Sri Lankan Navy this year, a sharp increase compared to the last few years (See box). Nearly 400 of the fishermen arrested this year have been released, while about 200 fishermen are currently in Sri Lankan prisons. A total of 107 trawlers were apprehended from the fishermen, of which the Indian side has retrieved about 40 so far.
Satellite images have, beyond doubt, established that Indian fishermen frequently cross the agreed-upon International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL) that defines the two nations’ respective fishing zones on either side of it.
However, many including Tamil Nadu politicians, passionately argue in defence of the fishermen, usually on three major grounds: that the fishermen erroneously stray into Sri Lankan waters without intending to; that it would take time to deter fishermen away from a zone where they traditionally held fishing rights; and that it is, at the end of the day, about their livelihood.
The argument that the fishermen naively stray into Sri Lankan territory falls flat, for, virtually all the trawlers found trespassing are equipped with GPS monitors that would clearly indicate where they are headed.
Change of course
Even if Indian fishermen traditionally held fishing rights across Palk Strait earlier – they had the zone virtually to themselves during Sri Lanka’s 30-year civil war that ended in 2009 – four years is not too short a time to change their course. The idea of “traditional fishing rights” is also questionable, particularly when Indian fishermen are found coming all the way around, off the island’s north-eastern coast, near Mullaitivu.
And to all those staunch defenders of livelihood issues who argue that it is, after all, a question of survival for those “poor fishermen” and therefore has to be dealt with with more lenience: you are right. It is, indeed, a very serious livelihood issue. And that is precisely why it should not get enmeshed in shrill political rhetoric.
So far, every case of arrest plays out in a predictable fashion with all the actors playing their part well, exactly by the book.
The moment news of an arrest is out, Tamil Nadu politicians put out a strong statement condemning the “atrocity of the Sri Lankan Navy” and urging New Delhi to take a strong position that is not diluted by its diplomatic compulsions. Both the ruling AIADMK and the DMK in the Opposition and all other political parties in Tamil Nadu share the same position on the issue.
Soon, New Delhi assures Tamil Nadu that it would do its best to get the fishermen released soon, a cue for backdoor diplomatic exchanges. New Delhi and the Indian mission in Sri Lanka, in particular, seem to have had a very hard time throughout 2013 – caught between Tamil Nadu’s unreasonable demands and an increasingly strained diplomatic equation with Sri Lanka that effectively weakens its leverage vis-�-vis pushing for the rights of the Sri Lankan Tamils.
The Sri Lankan government, on its part, soon highlights how poaching by Indian fishermen has severely affected the Sri Lankan economy. Some forces within the Sri Lankan government also tend to use the fishing conflict to bait the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), which formed the northern provincial government recently, provoking it to take on Tamil Nadu in this matter.
The issue gets further complicated when Sri Lankan fishermen are simultaneously caught poaching in Indian waters – as many as 171 fishermen were arrested in October and November 2013 alone. The fishermen arrested there, it is reliably learnt, are Sinhala fishermen using well-equipped longliners.
Following these parallel arrests, the two countries virtually end up with a barter deal on the release of the arrested fishermen.
The Tamil Nadu government and Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, who has been strongly criticising New Delhi for its stance, has, in the last few years, taken no serious measures to deter its fishermen from poaching in Sri Lankan waters.
If Tamil Nadu politicians care for Sri Lankan Tamils as much as they claim to, how come they completely miss the larger point about Sri Lankan Tamil fishermen being the worst-hit in this maritime mess? If it is about Tamil Nadu fishermen’s livelihood, what is it then, for Sri Lankan Tamil fishermen on this side of Palk Strait who are struggling to cope with the after-effects of a brutal war?
2013 has shown that diplomatic trade-offs can, at best, be a myopic response to an acute problem. If the livelihood concern flagged by many is for real, then Tamil Nadu has the biggest responsibility.
It has to change its strategy from resorting to unreasonable, emotional outbursts to finding ways to equip its own fishermen in the best, long-term interest of their livelihood by, say, offering training in deep-sea fishing methods. It should actively discourage the fishermen from crossing the IMBL.
The TNA might want to open up channels of communication with the Tamil Nadu government to engage with it, particularly on the fisheries conflict.
An amalgam of Tamil political parties with varying degrees of Tamil nationalism among its constituents, the TNA has repeatedly emphasised how deeply it values the solidarity expressed by Tamil Nadu in support of Sri Lankan Tamils. However, only an ongoing dialogue between the party and Tamil Nadu will help get across certain specific realities about Sri Lankan Tamils.
Political stakes
Unlike earlier, the TNA also has political stakes with regard to this issue, as the Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP), a member of the ruling coalition in Sri Lanka that had a strong support base among fishermen, seems to be losing ground to the TNA, going by its performance in the recent Northern Provincial Council (NPC) elections.
In Kayts, an island off Jaffna, for instance, the EPDP secured 31.48 per cent of the votes in the September elections to the NPC, as compared to the 71.99 per cent that it cornered in the 2010 parliamentary elections. The fisheries issue, therefore, offers new political space for the TNA provincial administration as well. Even if the TNA does its bit, the future of several thousand fishermen in Sri Lanka’s Northern Province – in Jaffna alone there are nearly 20,000 Tamil-speaking fishermen whose lives are tied to the sea – is, clearly, in Tamil Nadu’s hands.
December 20th, 2013 at 2:59 pm
There is NO CHANCE this FAT see-yu-en-tee can become Endia’s PM!!
North Endians will NEVER allow a stinky South Endian to become PM. It is a DISASTER for Endia.
December 20th, 2013 at 3:30 pm
The article failed to prove that if Jayalalithaa becomes Prime Minister of India she will be an existential threat to Sri Lanka. Jayalalithaa nor India have the power to destroy Sri Lanka in the same manner that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel. No Indian leader including this woman has claimed that if she comes to power the nation of Sri Lanka will be wiped out.
That was stated by Ahmadinejad about Israel. India does not have the support of the world to annihilate Sri Lanka and especially when Sri Lanka has a strategic partnership with China. Any such move by India will give carte blanche to both Pakistan and China to do the same to India or at least claim the Indian lands using military force. China is well aware of the strategic importance of Sri Lanka and if Jayalalithaa is foolish enough to launch attacks on Sri Lanka she might as well be launching attacks on China for all Colombo has to do is invite under a military agreement with both China and Russia that their warships be anchored in the harbors of Sri Lanka. A strike on their warships by India means a regional war where India’s only ally the US is 17 thousand miles away, deep in debt and run by a President who cannot win a war even if it is handed to him on a silver platter.
On the contrary if India becomes belligerent with Sri Lanka the UN, and world powers will charge India of undue aggression upon another nation. India will lose in the Security Council and it may even lead to the balkanization of India itself. Why do I make such a claim because to date all that India has done against Sri Lanka such as the two human rights violations have backfired on her with the region siding Sri Lanka.
In the case of the Maldives the relationship with India is tepid and the Maldive island nation would not tolerate any kind of invasion into another island nation. India will lose this strategic nation. As for Pakistan she will be one of the first to come to Sri Lanka’s aid and so will China. China also holds in her power the sources of the Indian rivers which originate in Tibet and in a war situation China can shut off the water supply to India. Russia who has always shown a keen interest in being a power in the Indian Ocean would not help India destroy Sri Lanka. If India under Jahalalithaa were to attack Sri Lanka she will be isolated not only in that region but by Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, China, many of the ASEAN nations and finally it will be the worst thing to do for the Sri Lankan Tamils will receive the full wrath of the rest of Sri Lanka. They will find themselves with no land to live on except be refugees to distant lands.
In simple words a belligerent India hell bent on destroying Sri Lanka led by a Tamil would end up with the final chapter of the Sri Lankan Tamils in Sri Lanka.
December 20th, 2013 at 3:43 pm
“In simple words a belligerent India hell bent on destroying Sri Lanka led by a Tamil would end up with the final chapter of the Sri Lankan Tamils in Sri Lanka.”
I FULLY AGREE with this statement.
This is the SL’s MAD (mutually assured destruction) SAFETY NET against Endia. Thanks to this CAPABILITY of SL, Endia will NEVER attack SL until SL maintains this capability.
ALL Tamil population centers MUST come within our MBRL range. It NOT about attacking them but about DETERRING any attack by Tamil-Endia axis of evil.
December 20th, 2013 at 7:23 pm
@Ananda,
That is true. However, the woman is far more dangerous and ultra-racist than the man. She has been viciously anti-Sri Lankan in her ranting and influencing the centre than the man.
As you point out, her special relationship with Clinton who is set to be the next President of USA opens up a worse case for Sri Lanka.
December 20th, 2013 at 8:49 pm
USA will never choose a woman as a puppet, let alone this FAT lollita.
Im portant statement is “SL maintains this capability”, by Lorenzo.
We need a up to date hidden force. ENdia is a goo scared country.
Our stupid leaders even more goo scared without knowing that this enemy is in fact scared of us.
The day they realise that, all out problems, including hanuman problem will be over.
It is all in brains of our fools, out of greed, living in constant fear.
No GREED no FEAR. This is the core of Buddhism. Fools should learn real Buddhism.
December 20th, 2013 at 8:59 pm
Mr BM,
I must disagree with your post above on several counts.
1. “The article failed to prove that if Jayalalithaa becomes Prime Minister of India she will be an existential threat to Sri Lanka.”
India has already posed an EXISTENTIAL THREAT to Sri Lanka by seeding Tamil terrorism in Sri Lanka and CREATING a separatist movement in Sri Lanka that bedevils Sri Lanka to this day. Yesterday the prime initiator of that threat was Indira Gandhi and her son Rajiv. Today it could be Jayalalitha. India’s Separatist CREATION may still split Sri Lanka in two …. this time under the supervision of the UN and the Hegemons of the West. Jayalalitha functions as a MEANS of making that a reality, and in that sense she is n EXISTENTIAL THREAT to Sri Lanka as Dilrook quite rightly points out.
2. You said regarding wiping out Sri Lanka by India, “That was stated by Ahmadinejad about Israel”.
India/Jayalalitha does not have to make foolish threats like Ahmedinejad did against Israel to pose an EXISTENTIAL threat. Ahmadinejad by his foolish statements compromised Iran’s National Interests and gave the West a means of DEMONIZING Iran. Iran has every right as a Sovereign Nation to develop nuclear technology for economic-security or for military-security related reasons, just as the nuclear powers among its critics have done. The current nuclear powers developed their nuclear arsenals in response to a perceived threat from other nuclear powers. Iran is being threatened EVERDAY with military attacks by Israel and the US, and NATO; are they less significant than Ahmedinejad’s ravings?
Furthermore, given the fact that the United Nations today is a US Puppet, and that “Coalitions of the Willing” can always be created to circumvent the UN in those rare instances when it does not rubber stamp unilateral actions by the US, what makes you so confident that ” the support of the world” is required to annihilate Sri Lanka by India aligned with the US?
Do you not see the recent games that were played in the so-called “Arab Uprising” to undermine and destroy nations opposed to the Western Neo-Colonialists? See what is happening now in Syria, where Seymour Hersh of “Abu Gharib expose” fame has exposed that the chemical weapons used were used by the rebels sponsored by the Sunni-powers (Saudi Arabia and Qatar) and the Western Hegemons. Without a mighty protector like China, Sri Lanka can be demonized and manipulated into the cross-hairs of their global sniper rifle.
3. You said Sri Lanka should ” invite under a military agreement with both China and Russia that their warships be anchored in the harbors of Sri Lanka” and “Russia who has always shown a keen interest in being a power in the Indian Ocean would not help India destroy Sri Lanka.”
ABSOLUTELY WRONG! Russia was an ally of India long before the USA became enamoured of India, and despite inroads the US has made into India, bot India and Russia still value and preserve that alliance. Therefore, Russia will not defend SRi Lanka against India, but China may.
4. You said “Why do I make such a claim because to date all that India has done against Sri Lanka such as the two human rights violations have backfired on her with the region siding Sri Lanka.”
In what way have India’s actions against SL at the UN “back fired” significantly against India? Please explain.
5. You said “As for Pakistan she will be one of the first to come to Sri Lanka’s aid and so will China. ” implying they will wage war against India in defence of Sri Lanka!
I can assure you that they WILL NOT MAKE WAR ON INDIA to rescue Sri Lanka. Countries will go to war only to preserve their ESSENTIAL INTERESTS. You have to understand this ESSENTIAL FACT that all nations consider before making war: GAIN/BENEFIT in making war must exceed the RISK/LOSS in making war.
Sri Lanka is not valuable enough for ANY OTHER NATION IN THE WORLD to go to war in defence of it. Short of WAR, they will help Sri Lanka, but they will not fight a war on Sri Lanka’s behalf: the RISK to their own countries EXCEEDS the GAIN to their own countries.
The only way in which Sri Lanka can change that is by first becoming an economic and military power comparable to Israel, in its own right that would make Sri Lanka a VERY VALUABLE ALLY. Then the RISK to Pakistan and China will be REDUCED and the POTENTIAL for GAIN INCREASED sufficiently to contemplate making war on Sri Lanka’s behalf. Sri Lanka will have to become MUCH STRONGER ECONOMICALLY and TECHNOLOGICALLY to even contemplate making the expenditures necessary to become a military power like Israel.
December 20th, 2013 at 9:18 pm
INDEED, Bureaucracy, Inefficiency and Waste of Public Funds EXPLODES under the Provincial Council System. The ONLY beneficiaries are the Provincial Councillors profiting from their stranglehold on the citizens of their feudal fiefdoms.
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‘Country bogged down in PC quagmire’
Island.lk
December 19, 2013
Chief Government Whip Water Supply and Drainage Minister, Dinesh Gunawardena told Parliament yesterday (19) that the country was bogged down in a quagmire because of the Provincial Council system introduced by the UNP.
He said the provincial council system had created a lot of administrative problems. “While 400 schools under the purview of the Education Minister, 9,000 schools are under the Provincial Councils,” he said The Provincial Council system was being continued by the government without change owing to political imperatives, the Minsiter added.
Speaker Chamal Rajapaksa said the Provincial Council education ministers, too, could be summoned to the Education Ministry’s Consultative Committees as a solution to such administrative problems. (SI)
December 21st, 2013 at 9:29 am
India needs well educated, politically & economically savvy, sincere leaders. Ms Jayalalitha does not fit that bill for India or the region. She is very much from the old school of leaders and highly outdated.
December 21st, 2013 at 1:55 pm
The author has missed the forth coming timeline of UN Geneva 2014 prior to the Indian Election.
It is more than likely Sri Lanka will face yet another Resolution in Geneva and in the event of a “mechanism” set in motion by the UN, India will be the likely nominated Head of the “mechanism”.
Under those circumstances it is unlikely India (coerced by Jayalalitaha or otherwise) will make a unilateral attempt/threat on Sri Lanka.
In my view Modi/ BJP (with or without Jayalalitaha) is bad news for Sri Lanka. Unlike Manmohan Sigh, Modi is not going to pussyfoot around issues.