By  Gomin Dayasri

 In a Rajapakse almanac, a general or presidential election is an event slotted to a season of festivity – to sync with times of good cheer when the spirits are soaring and money jingles in the pocket with allowances, bonuses and advances. So, 2014 maybe the election year or become the year that leaps to an election in 2015.

 Stimulating elections according to a successful doctrine is likely between New Year (April 2014) and Wesak (May 2014) or weighted between Christmas (December 2014) and New Year (April 2015). Though it would truncate his present term: those lost days can be tagged to the succeeding term from a judgment in court.

  Mahinda Rajapakse will advance elections to calibrate it to a climate in a manageable economy on the polling date. His concerns would be (a) economy (b) northern nationalism and the (c) outcome in Geneva in March 2014. He could adroitly convert (b) and (c) to his advantage.

 Bashings by the West/India/TNA make a stressed nation rally around the national flag that features the portly figure of Mahinda Rajapakse than the iconic lion emblem – much to his vantage. He does need fear are the economic sanctions that might be imposed, wistfully, seeking a regime change. Before it impacts, elections will be held according to a Rajapakse calendar featuring the pin up boy in many poses. Sanctions take time to materialize. A government heavily into the bond market should fear a hasty manipulated recall according to western dictates-that would surely hurt.

 Government picked its candidate with the 18^th Amendment jettisoning the two-term presidency and kick-started the campaign with the Budget in November 2013. An early start can make a campaign look stale at the time it need peak. Flip side is an election can be positioned instantly for the most favorable moment as the candidate is on the campaign trail.

 One thing is for sure – UNP cannot afford to forfeit the presidential election twice and remain a credible alternate government- a man in a green shirt has to emerge. Green tunic comes easier than finding a suitable wearer. Slotting late has pitfalls if deep rifts surface again, on an eve to an election, to spell doom.

 A maverick candidate from the south is a certainty- inserted as a spoiler to split and extract the Sinhala Buddhist bulk protest vote and siphon it off Rajapakse’s traditional winning slate. Yet such a spoiler can drain much of the dissatisfied UNP vote, unless the UNP nominee is not well ahead.  It happened when the JHU won 10 seats in 2005 picking the UNP’s middle class disenchanted vote. A spoiler candidate is likely to pick votes from both camps and end as a non-entity; but a wild card act is hard to sustain in a presidential election- easier at a general election.

  A relevant factor in the equation is the substantially orchestrated vote from the North/East flowing after a long duration that is assuredly anti–government and will tilt towards a formidable southern candidate appealing to Tamil sentiments. UNP will target this vote that can be a bounty or if mishandled backfire in the South. Rajapakse will have to build formidable majorities in the Southern districts to cover the emerging threat from North/East. Northern vote has been reduced with many taking residence elsewhere the majorities can be wiped out with a strong southern showingelsewhere.  UNP stands to gain in a close call. Though the image of a war hero fades with time, President’s charisma stands strong.

  Coming results of the elections to the Western Provincial Council is the trend-setter to the future where economic hardship hurt the urban people most, where voters are conscious and concerned of bribery and corruption living in the midst of the opinion makers and is the homeland of the UNP where the minority vote can swing marginal electorates and trading community is present in abundance-both leaning towards the opposition. It’s bound to be a prelude to a national election in a pulse checking operation of the people. If the UNP is to make an impact in the coming elections, they need win or be beaten by a whisker in the Western Province to set the momentum. Southern Province will reflect whether the majorities obtained are sufficient for the President to offset the North/East vote.

 Beneath it all, is the economic well being of the people. Urban population bares great strain but eases it with their own skills making homes an business haven of many ventures as reflected in the numerous commercial sign boards displaying services held out as cottage industry. This is absent in the North because of the social backwardness of an enterprising community reawakening after a long internment that gassed them to sleep and presented a lost generation.

 This upward mobility in the South has contributed greatly in making Sri Lanka a truly middle-income nation with several family members becoming contributors to the household income. Number of vehicles that congest roads –motorcycles, three wheelers, light vehicles and vans- reflect it. Yet the cost of living has reached unbearable levels for the fixed wage earners that form the bulk of the urban lower middle class, which delivered a motivated patriotic vote after the war. Still, if economic conditions toughen in the coming months the mood will change. Economy will remain cosmetically rigged until the twin elections are over-thunderbolts will strike thereafter.

 By holding the Commonwealth Conference in Colombo we unnecessarily re- focused the spotlight on Sri Lanka. Cameron deserves the local battering received – yet it will make Britain more determined to press for international inquiry in 2014 after the lashing. Supporting encores will be received from India, Europe, and U.S.A and South American states with a liberal outlook on human rights. It will be the toughest test we will encounter and to make it worse our Foreign Ministry is not alive to the task; spending their time jetting around seeing the wonders of the world. Importance is to place the impending danger on a slow track by diplomatic maneuvers and attend to the necessary domestic chores at home however belatedly and make the hands of our friendly nations stronger to defend us. Instead we behave like a bunch of mixed-up morons.  

 North bewilders a government unable to distinguish Northern nationalism from the TNA’s quest to lead to separatism.

 Northern nationalism emanates from the bosom of the people in the search of ethnic value, belief, tradition and vision; on another plateau, TNA is fostering disharmony exploiting northern nationalism to a forbidden pitch to create ethic rifts on which they hope to thrive. TNA is a party of many shades of political ideology where eventually a moderate Wigneswaran has already morphed into a radical Sridharan since he is an odd man out without a political base (Had Wigneswaram being out of politics he could have contributed much with his intellectual ideology in fostering ethnic harmony- now a square peg in a round hole)) Till the government comprehends the true spirit of northern nationalism – the aspiration of the bulk of the peninsula that shudders of a thought of igniting terrorism again; and are helpless with the TNA still pursuing separatism. Government will continue to play blind mans puff attending to wayward development without adding value to the personal economy of the individual. It will incur great expenditure to which the flow of votes will not be proportionate. Much of it originates due to intellectual incapacity.  

 Difference lies with the Lankan voter whose gratitude and obligation is more steadfast than the British who booted Churchill after winning the war. It has much to do with the Sinhala Buddhist civilization of amiable tolerance and lasting gratitude until the tiger is at the gate and lived for ages on the splendor and grandeur of the past and thrives presently on living with with glory and pride after winning the war: a view that has permeated to the patriotic Christian/Islamic population. After 30 years of war, people know the difference between those who brought peace and ended terrorism and those who cohabit with foreign forces trying to disgrace an emerging nation. The state of the economy lies in between and could make the difference.

 It is the state of mind of the people at election time that matters in a coming election year.