LOOKING AHEAD AT 2014
Posted on December 23rd, 2013

By  Gomin Dayasri

 In a Rajapakse almanac, a general or presidential election is an event slotted to a season of festivity ” to sync with times of good cheer when the spirits are soaring and money jingles in the pocket with allowances, bonuses and advances. So, 2014 maybe the election year or become the year that leaps to an election in 2015.

 Stimulating elections according to a successful doctrine is likely between New Year (April 2014) and Wesak (May 2014) or weighted between Christmas (December 2014) and New Year (April 2015). Though it would truncate his present term: those lost days can be tagged to the succeeding term from a judgment in court.

  Mahinda Rajapakse will advance elections to calibrate it to a climate in a manageable economy on the polling date. His concerns would be (a) economy (b) northern nationalism and the (c) outcome in Geneva in March 2014. He could adroitly convert (b) and (c) to his advantage.

 Bashings by the West/India/TNA make a stressed nation rally around the national flag that features the portly figure of Mahinda Rajapakse than the iconic lion emblem – much to his vantage. He does need fear are the economic sanctions that might be imposed, wistfully, seeking a regime change. Before it impacts, elections will be held according to a Rajapakse calendar featuring the pin up boy in many poses. Sanctions take time to materialize. A government heavily into the bond market should fear a hasty manipulated recall according to western dictates-that would surely hurt.

 Government picked its candidate with the 18th Amendment jettisoning the two-term presidency and kick-started the campaign with the Budget in November 2013. An early start can make a campaign look stale at the time it need peak. Flip side is an election can be positioned instantly for the most favorable moment as the candidate is on the campaign trail.

 One thing is for sure ” UNP cannot afford to forfeit the presidential election twice and remain a credible alternate government- a man in a green shirt has to emerge. Green tunic comes easier than finding a suitable wearer. Slotting late has pitfalls if deep rifts surface again, on an eve to an election, to spell doom.

 A maverick candidate from the south is a certainty- inserted as a spoiler to split and extract the Sinhala Buddhist bulk protest vote and siphon it off Rajapakse’s traditional winning slate. Yet such a spoiler can drain much of the dissatisfied UNP vote, unless the UNP nominee is not well ahead.  It happened when the JHU won 10 seats in 2005 picking the UNP’s middle class disenchanted vote. A spoiler candidate is likely to pick votes from both camps and end as a non-entity; but a wild card act is hard to sustain in a presidential election- easier at a general election.

  A relevant factor in the equation is the substantially orchestrated vote from the North/East flowing after a long duration that is assuredly anti”government and will tilt towards a formidable southern candidate appealing to Tamil sentiments. UNP will target this vote that can be a bounty or if mishandled backfire in the South. Rajapakse will have to build formidable majorities in the Southern districts to cover the emerging threat from North/East. Northern vote has been reduced with many taking residence elsewhere the majorities can be wiped out with a strong southern showingelsewhere.  UNP stands to gain in a close call. Though the image of a war hero fades with time, President’s charisma stands strong.

  Coming results of the elections to the Western Provincial Council is the trend-setter to the future where economic hardship hurt the urban people most, where voters are conscious and concerned of bribery and corruption living in the midst of the opinion makers and is the homeland of the UNP where the minority vote can swing marginal electorates and trading community is present in abundance-both leaning towards the opposition. It’s bound to be a prelude to a national election in a pulse checking operation of the people. If the UNP is to make an impact in the coming elections, they need win or be beaten by a whisker in the Western Province to set the momentum. Southern Province will reflect whether the majorities obtained are sufficient for the President to offset the North/East vote.

 Beneath it all, is the economic well being of the people. Urban population bares great strain but eases it with their own skills making homes an business haven of many ventures as reflected in the numerous commercial sign boards displaying services held out as cottage industry. This is absent in the North because of the social backwardness of an enterprising community reawakening after a long internment that gassed them to sleep and presented a lost generation.

 This upward mobility in the South has contributed greatly in making Sri Lanka a truly middle-income nation with several family members becoming contributors to the household income. Number of vehicles that congest roads ”motorcycles, three wheelers, light vehicles and vans- reflect it. Yet the cost of living has reached unbearable levels for the fixed wage earners that form the bulk of the urban lower middle class, which delivered a motivated patriotic vote after the war. Still, if economic conditions toughen in the coming months the mood will change. Economy will remain cosmetically rigged until the twin elections are over-thunderbolts will strike thereafter.

 By holding the Commonwealth Conference in Colombo we unnecessarily re- focused the spotlight on Sri Lanka. Cameron deserves the local battering received ” yet it will make Britain more determined to press for international inquiry in 2014 after the lashing. Supporting encores will be received from India, Europe, and U.S.A and South American states with a liberal outlook on human rights. It will be the toughest test we will encounter and to make it worse our Foreign Ministry is not alive to the task; spending their time jetting around seeing the wonders of the world. Importance is to place the impending danger on a slow track by diplomatic maneuvers and attend to the necessary domestic chores at home however belatedly and make the hands of our friendly nations stronger to defend us. Instead we behave like a bunch of mixed-up morons.  

 North bewilders a government unable to distinguish Northern nationalism from the TNA’s quest to lead to separatism.

 Northern nationalism emanates from the bosom of the people in the search of ethnic value, belief, tradition and vision; on another plateau, TNA is fostering disharmony exploiting northern nationalism to a forbidden pitch to create ethic rifts on which they hope to thrive. TNA is a party of many shades of political ideology where eventually a moderate Wigneswaran has already morphed into a radical Sridharan since he is an odd man out without a political base (Had Wigneswaram being out of politics he could have contributed much with his intellectual ideology in fostering ethnic harmony- now a square peg in a round hole)) Till the government comprehends the true spirit of northern nationalism – the aspiration of the bulk of the peninsula that shudders of a thought of igniting terrorism again; and are helpless with the TNA still pursuing separatism. Government will continue to play blind mans puff attending to wayward development without adding value to the personal economy of the individual. It will incur great expenditure to which the flow of votes will not be proportionate. Much of it originates due to intellectual incapacity.  

 Difference lies with the Lankan voter whose gratitude and obligation is more steadfast than the British who booted Churchill after winning the war. It has much to do with the Sinhala Buddhist civilization of amiable tolerance and lasting gratitude until the tiger is at the gate and lived for ages on the splendor and grandeur of the past and thrives presently on living with with glory and pride after winning the war: a view that has permeated to the patriotic Christian/Islamic population. After 30 years of war, people know the difference between those who brought peace and ended terrorism and those who cohabit with foreign forces trying to disgrace an emerging nation. The state of the economy lies in between and could make the difference.

 It is the state of mind of the people at election time that matters in a coming election year. 

10 Responses to “LOOKING AHEAD AT 2014”

  1. Nanda Says:

    “After 30 years of war, people know the difference between those who brought peace and ended terrorism and those who cohabit with foreign forces trying to disgrace an emerging nation. The state of the economy lies in between and could make the difference.”

    Even the biggest supporters (among ordinary people) of “Mahinda Mahattaya” now accepts he is pocketting billions and betraying the motHerland. How is he going to vote ?
    The great energy of the youngsters who are the ones really saved mother lanka, will prevail in the end. Elections are useless.

  2. Christie Says:

    CHOGM in Colombo is the start of a new direction. Up to then it has been dominated by India and Indians. British Politic played its past ego for the benefit of Indian colonial parasites and vermin back in Cameron Land. For the first time we saw differences between Canada- Australia- NZ and UK. If I am correct great Emperror of the day did not attend Perth or Colombo. Perth because his modern day non violent invaders the so called Coolie-Students were based then Colombo; is terrorist arm branded Tamil Tigers were wiped out.

  3. Christie Says:

    its terrorist arm

  4. Christie Says:

    …Coolie-Students were bashed by the locals.

    pardon my typo

  5. Ananda-USA Says:

    Charles Perera’s comment elsewhere at LankaWeb that the Eelamists are “taunting the Sinhala going on the old adage “Sinhalaya modaya. ” has revived a haunting memory of the Eelam War IV period 2006-2009. During that time, I and many other Patriots were blogging at the DefenceWire blog trying to guess what the Eelamists were going to next, and strategizing how to counter them.

    Until 2009, it was not apparent to the Eelamists that they were going to be TOTALLY CRUSHED this time, and no one was going to save them despite their global wailing as victims. So they kept commenting at Defencewire how the Thalaivar was invincible, how the Sinhala Army will be wiped out, how Kilinochchi will become the “Stanlingrad” of the Sinhala Army, how Unceasing Waves attacks were imminent, how the GOSL was lying about the military disasters already suffered, ad infinitum, ad nauseam, all predicated on the INVINCIBILITY of the LTTE.

    Accompanying all of those comments was a steady drumbeat of “Sinhala Modaya” insults, in their deluded conviction that somehow Sinhala people were inherently inferior and incapable of doing anything right. As Kilinochchi fell without a whimper, and the LTTE kept getting corralled like sheep into the minute Mullaitivu pocket, those Sinhalaya Modaya comments abated and finally vanished. After May 19, 2009 all of the Eelamist propagandists vanished from Defencewire …. there was NOT A HUM from them … their SHOCK was almost PALPABLE.

    Now, with the rise of an Eelamist controlled Northern PC, that CRUSHING DEFEAT of 2009 has faded from the collective memory of the Eelamists, and Eelamist hopes are being resurrected. They have forgotten the lesson they learned that underneath that tolerant Sinhala Buddhist exterior there is a Sinhala Lion ready, able and willing to fight given sufficient Provocation. These stupid guys have forgotten that they with all of their vaunted “Superior Intelligence” that is an “Inherent Characteristic” of the Eelamists, were OUTSMARTED wholesale and totally DEFEATED by those they called “Sinhala Modayas”! So, they are back at the game of Demonizing Sinhala people and Hurling Insults all over again.

    They MISTOOK TOLERANCE for STUPIDITY then, and they are MISTAKING TOLERANCE for STUPIDITY now.

    The TIME HAS CLEARLY COME for the “Sinhala Modayas” to ADMINISTER that Lesson AGAIN, this time not in the battlefield of WAR, but in the battlefield of National POLITICS and Political STRATEGY, by REPEALING the 13th Amendment altogether, DISSOLVING the Provincial Council System, BANNING all Communal Parties, and ADOPTING Ethnic Integration as National Policy with wiping out Regional Ethnic Concentrations in Sri Lanka as its centerpiece, and INCREASING the presence of the Armed Forces throughout the former war zones and coastal borders.

    MAKE NO MISTAKE: This is a WAR. We don’t need their Acceptance; we need only STRICT compulsory Compliance with the law by EVERY citizen of Sri Lanka, irrespective of community. VIOLATE the LAW, EARN Hard Labor in PRISON.

    Let the “Sinhala Modaya” insult BOOMERANG in their faces ….. ONCE AGAIN!

  6. Lorenzo Says:

    During the war Tamilians said Sinhala modayas will end up like Operation Jayasikuru.

    Anti-LTTE people told them back to imagine the destruction LTTE will suffer when “modayas” get hold of supersonic bombers, MBRLs, fire bombs, thermobaric bombs, cluster bombs, etc. IF they are “Modayas”, they will use them willy-nilly.

    Now same “modayas” control all parts of the island, control the medicine, food, drug, education, etc. supply to Tamils. There is a 250,000 strong “modaya” army of men while Tamil modayas have 89,000 Mahaveer widows. It is unfortunate that only a fcuked-up Tamil is a good Tamil (apart from a very few exceptions). That is why they kept silent for months after the war ended. The foolish and kind rat released the tiger from the net, bleeding its teeth and the tiger now wants to eat the rat.

    Just imagine the possibilities!

  7. Lorenzo Says:

    Ananda,

    Don’t overcrowd the prisons. As you know prisoners continue to engage in their criminal acts FROM the prison.

  8. Nanda Says:

    Lorenzo,
    “The foolish and kind rat released the tiger from the net, bleeding its teeth and the tiger now wants to eat the rat.”

    RAT is dead scared now and running up and down trying to find a place to hide.
    RAT thought he is supreme while “Modayas” are sleeping. It is not the RAT that tied up the Tiger, it was the “modayas”. One day one of the “Modayas” will wake up and chase the RAT and kill the Tiger.

    Lets wait for that day. Until then only nonsense can keep us entertained.

  9. Nanda Says:

    Jail is for humans , not for hanumans.

  10. Christie Says:

    Sinhalese and other non Indians have to be educated and informed and brought together. 1951 India funded SWRD. 1969-70 the JVP (there were some North Korean connection). 1978 onwards the Tamil terrorists. 2005 they made an error by supporting MR. 2009 SF. Who will India back in 2014 or 15 presidential election. the only thing we can relax is there are more geo political players.

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