Botched up ‘OPERATION PRABHAKARAN’ triggers off ‘OPERATION SURROGATE’
Posted on April 13th, 2014

Vijitha Tennekoon Courtesy The Daily News

In 2005, when the Rajapaksa government was elected to power, a small coterie of the International community(SCIC) had, through the vehicle of Tamil Nationalism (powered by motors of terrorism), through Wickremesinghe’s CFA, through Kumaranatunga’s PTOM, then again through Kumaranatunga’s Norwegian funded Sudu Nelum ‘Kolama’, and through the Foundations and NGOs funded by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the German NGO Berghof and by the big Corporations, broken the will of the people to protect the sovereignty of this country; they had manufactured opinion in the people’s minds that the terrorists were invincible; without the political will and leadership to defend the country, the SCIC had been successful in bringing Sri Lanka to the brink of break up and in the process gained suzerainty over, the North and the East which included 2/3rd of Sri Lanka’s coastline(or rimland), the heartland attached to that rimland and the sea adjacent to the rimland.

It was in the late 1970s that ‘Forward’, a reputed English political weekly in Sri Lanka, carried a major news item alerting the people to an imminent danger: It warned the country of the General Abram plan to destabilize Sri Lanka; in Phase one of the operation, Eelamists using Tamil Nadu as their base were to destabilize the North and the East of Sri Lanka to create dual control therein; when the two Sri Lankan territories were sufficiently unhinged with de facto control exercised by Eelamists and de jure control by Colombo, Phase two of the operation was to commence; in this Phase the base of operations would be shifted to the North of Sri Lanka and the destabilization of Tamil Nadu would begin. When Tamil Nadu was sufficiently destabilized and unhinged Phase three would commence in creating the State of Eelam Nadu.

Rajapaksa refused to accept the Kumaranatunga-Wickremesinghe legacy. Sri Lanka’s ‘Operation Hostage Rescue’ tolled the death knell for ‘Operation Prabhakaran’ hatched by the SCIC; the Goliaths never imagined that their proxy terrorists would be brilliantly out – manoeuvred by the ‘political-military – people’ combine of little Sri Lanka working cohesively for the first time in three decades. When finally the Goliaths read the writing on the wall it was too late; their last minute attempts to stop Sri Lanka’s anti-terrorist juggernaut proved futile; they sent high powered emissaries to the island to attempt negotiate a ceasefire; they used their influence to delay a vital 1.9 billion USD loan from the IMF; an attempt was made to kidnap and take hostage the Sri Lankan cricket team through another terrorist proxy group, the L eT, headed by American David Headley(had the kidnap operation been successful, the tradeoff may well have been termination of ‘Operation Hostage Rescue’ for the lives of the cricketers.); the Goliaths allegedly attempted to broker a highly improbable surrender of terrorist leaders who had previously demanded from and ruthlessly enforced on their rank and file the ‘Cyanide – Ever – Surrender – Never’ pledge ; to coordinate this improbable surrender a Nordic ambassador in Sri Lanka travelled incognito to an Asian country in contravention of diplomatic protocol; protocol demands that diplomatic personages keep the Foreign Ministry briefed of their movements.

The Co Chairs – US, EU, Norway and Japan – directly held sway over some of Sri Lanka’s own coffers. Norway was the viceroy of the territory.

The Kumaranatunga-Wickremesinghe combination was responsible for internationalizing Sri Lanka’s internal problem and bringing in Norway as a facilitator. The LTTE had been elevated to international status, recognition and respectability despite being branded as a terrorist organisation while Sri Lanka had been manipulated to surrender a major portion of its sovereignty over her Northern and Eastern territories and compelled to eat humble pie. De facto, the SCIC controlled the territory via the LTTE while de jure control was with Sri Lanka. Phase one of mission ‘Operation Prabhakaran’ was nearly accomplished.

‘Operation Hostage Rescue’ wiped out the massive gains that ‘Operation Prabhakaran’ had given the SCIC. As the John Kerry Report of 2009 candidly suggests, the US made a gross miscalculation when they placed all their chips on an ‘invincible’ LTTE.

“A classic case of getting drunk in one’s own cellar of disinformation” said a caustic wag. In its editorial of April 30, 2009, the New York Times commented “American officials say privately they will try to delay Sri Lanka from getting a desperately needed $1.9 billion loan from the IMF until the modalities of a ceasefire is achieved.”

Reflecting on the brilliant military campaign that eliminated Prabhakaran and the terrorists, Sarath Fonseka in an interview with the ITN said, “The last ditch effort made by certain countries in the West to impose a ceasefire on Sri Lanka in the guise of saving civilians was actually made to save Prabhakaran and his top men; this effort is being made with a view of destabilizing countries like India and Sri Lanka, like the Middle East with a never ending problem”. With ‘Operation Prabhakaran’ badly botched, the SCIC lost no time in launching ‘Operation Surrogate’. Veteran diplomatic analysts say the Aim of ‘Operation Surrogate’ is, “To regain for the SCIC all the advantages it lost when ‘Operation Hostage Rescue’ crushed ‘Operation Prabhakaran’ “.

As Clausewitz famously said “War is an extension of diplomacy”; the corollary being that when war ends diplomacy resumes. Operation Surrogate is a diplomatic offensive on many fronts; in the present Phase it is essentially a ‘Mind Game’ and the SCIC are moving their major pieces like the Albert Einstein Institute (AEI), the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the big Corporate Foundations into place on the board. The SCIC is leading the assault on Sri Lanka in Geneva at the HRC.

Some of the objectives (or mile stones) that the SCIC are hoping to achieve in this Phase of ‘Operation Surrogate’ according to some Intelligence analysts are:

a. Mould the minds of the Sri Lankans to believe that the ‘Conflict’, which was over, is not over.

b. Mould the minds of the Sri Lankans to believe that the SCIC is invincible.

c. Mould the minds of the Sri Lankans to feel ashamed for having defeated the terrorists.

d. Mould the minds of the Sri Lankans to believe that in defeating the terrorists they defeated the Tamils.

e. Mould the minds of the Sri Lankans to believe that the only way to atone for the shame of defeating the terrorists is to concede Federalism in the North and the East.

f. Mould the minds of the people of the world to believe that the cyanide carrying terrorists whose deadly pledge of ‘Cyanide – Ever – Surrender – Never’ had surrendered, only to be killed in cold blood by the Sri Lankan Forces.

g. Conduct soap box court house drama on television to allow embedded newsreaders to pass judgement on Sri Lanka

h. Mould the minds of the people of the world to believe that the Sri Lankan military is ruthlessly indisciplined.

i. Re establish SCIC suzerainty over the North and the East

j. Resist all measures to integrate the Tamil community in the North with the other ethnic communities while vilifying Sri Lanka internationally for not integrating the Tamil community.

k. Mould the minds of the Sri Lankans to believe that the Constitution is evil. (Minister Tissa Vitharane at a symposium in Sri Lanka a couple of years ago on ‘Winning the War and Winning the Peace’ publicly conceded that had the Executive system of government not been in place, Sri Lanka would not have been able to defeat the terrorists).

l. Mould the minds of the people in the world to believe that in Sri Lanka today, gung ho Sinhalese are running around killing, maiming, raping and making disappear, members of the Tamil community.

m. Distract the minds of the people of Sri Lanka to believe that Tamil Nadu and Delhi are their greatest adversaries

n. Mould the minds of the people of Tamil Nadu to believe that Sri Lanka is their greatest adversary.

o. Mould the minds of the fishermen of Tamil Nadu to believe that they have an equal right, as do the fishermen of Jaffna, to fish in Sri Lanka’s waters.

p. Mould the minds of the Sri Lankans and the Indians to set the two countries on a collision course.

Visiting Sri Lanka a month before the HRC sessions in Geneva was Donald Horowitz, a major beneficiary of Corporate and Congress funds and closely associated with the dubious AEI, the NED and the Ford Foundation that has been criticized for its revolving door relationship with the CIA since the days of Richard Bissell and John McCoy.

During his foray into the island the adjunct Professor, like Rama Mani an active proponent of the infamous R2P doctrine, badgered Sri Lanka to bite the carrot of Federalism: “There could possibly be a drop down in the level of the ‘Conflict’ which may be confined to the Northern and Eastern provinces” waffled Horowitz.

An acolyte of anarcho capitalism Horowitz was not particularly discreet when he alluded that to act to the contrary would be to court the inevitable, the break up of the Nation State of Sri Lanka.

Arab Spring

Horowitz was clearly uncomfortable when responding to a query regarding his role as advisor to Gene Sharpe’s ‘Albert Einstein Institution’ or AIE, which analysts have directly linked to all the Colour ‘Revolutions’ that swept Eastern Europe (including Ukraine) and Asia and all the ‘Arab springs’ along the entire length of the South Mediterranean rim.

Sharpe’s handbook on non-violently toppling governments and creating ‘Regime Changes’ was the ‘bible’ in every protestor’s hand.

The Einstein Institute receives funding from the Ford Foundation and the NED and has on its board members from RAND and the Ford Foundation. Horowitz is considered as a ‘Regime Changing Expert’ and lectures on the Arab Spring; on February 16, 2011 the Washington Post reported that he was consulted by the White House on the Egyptian problem.

The National Endowment for Democracy or NED is the creation of Reagan; in 1983 to circumvent the Roland Amendment banning further funding of Contra terrorists by Congress Reagan created the NED. Says author William Robinson, “NED employs a complex system of intermediaries in which operative aspects, control relationships, and funding trails are nearly impossible to follow and final recipients are difficult to identify”. Commenting on the NED funding former agent Phillip Agee said, “The NED was set up as a private Foundation but there is nothing private about it; its money comes from the Congress.” The end user of these Congress funds channeled through the NED is neither accountable to the Congress for the funds nor for the amplitude of its usage.

Although Congress banned funding to the terrorists, the terrorists continued receiving funds from the Congress through the NED mechanism which finally led to the overthrow of the democratically elected Sandinista government in Nicaragua. Similarly, the LTTE too were banned by the Congress.

Allen Weinstein one of the founders of the NED summed up its role pithily when he said, “A lot of what we (NED) do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA” Jeffry Blankfort reporting from Syria writes, “The NED is currently involved in Syria where the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies, headed by Radwan Ziadeh has served as a front for its activities”.

In Sri Lanka, in a highly publicized event, the Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL) recently received NED funds.

Federalism per se may have been an attractive option for Sri Lanka to have considered but for the fact that the vehicle of Tamil Nationalism has been hijacked on numerous occasions by Regional and International power centres to achieve their parochial geo political objectives, more often than not at the expense of the majority of the Tamil people.

The distrust towards Federalism lies not in any emotional perceptions of the Sinhalese and the Tamils of the other but rather from the studied experience of the Sri Lankan people in their dealings with those perfidious external forces who have hijacked the vehicle of Tamil Nationalism; these interlopers masquerading as Tamil sympathizers attempt to manufacture dissent in their effort to weaken and dismantle the Nation State of Sri Lanka, establish a beachhead on the island for Corporate Colonialism, destabilize India and gain control of one of the 27 choke points in the oceans of the world.

As John Kerry points out in his 2009 report, this choke point is of vital geo- political importance to the SCIC as it is to the other players in the ‘New Great Game’.

Horowitz is clearly out of step with the realities on the ground; the ‘Conflict’, which by verbiage, it would seem, he was attempting to resurrect, was long over when terrorist Prabhakaran and his fellow foreign funded mercenaries were annihilated on the banks of the Nandikadal putting the cherry on a brilliant and daring military campaign. What remains today are the scars and the healing wounds of a near 30 years of ‘Conflict Creation’.

From a narrow perspective what is happening in Geneva is Sri Lanka’s problem and Sri Lanka’s alone. Analysts say that the SCIC, hijacking the vehicle of Tamil Nationalism, are attempting to break up the country through weapons of diplomacy following their failure to do so during the 30 year terrorist war. From a broader perspective however, what is happening in Sri Lanka is applicable to the Third World, the break up of sovereign Nation states. New Colonialism is on the march and the Third world countries must wake up before it is too late. We need to stand together and present a united front against the New Colonialists. Otherwise it would be a case of Hodie mihi cras tibi; Today it is me, tomorrow it will be you.

http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=features/botched-operation-prabhakaran-triggers-operation-surrogate

21 Responses to “Botched up ‘OPERATION PRABHAKARAN’ triggers off ‘OPERATION SURROGATE’”

  1. Lorenzo Says:

    Ukraine spring has SPRUNG out of control now AGAINST SPRING MASTERS. Now they are crapping in their pants.

  2. Ananda-USA Says:

    Lorenzo,

    That is exactly right!

    Russia is turning tables on those who orchestrated the “Arab Spring” disasters by copying their strategies in Ukraine.

    Let us see how the “Spring Masters” (to use your term!) cope with this, now that they are no longer dealing with some poor godforsaken developing countries unable to defend themselves effectively!

    I SINCERELY HOPE that Russia teaches the US/UK/EU Club of NeoColonialists a DAMN GOOD lesson they will not EASILY forget!

    Billary Clinton, who initiated the Arab Spring strategy to undermine, destabilize and dismember countriies under the pretext of enhancing “human rights” and propagating “democracy” has started her campaign for the US Presidency in the United States.

    During a talk she was giving in Los Angeles (at $200,000 a throw), a Blonde white woman threw a shoe at Hillary! She ducked to avoid the shoe thinking it was an errant bat divebombing her!

    To say the least … it was Hillarious …. perhaps, the shoe is now on the other foot!

    God Save the developing countries of the world, and the average US citizen trying to earn a living and take care of his/her family, if Billary becomes President in 2016! The US will be fighting global wars that she will spawn INTERMINABLE wars with her Machiavellian policies of divide and conquer!

  3. Lorenzo Says:

    I wish and PRAY Hilarious Clitoris will get a brain tumor and die before 2016. IF NOT mark my word, she will be PRESIDENT.

    She will start wars everywhere BUT clever enough to AVOID wars with CHINA. This is a VERY CLEVER plan by her. She is PRO CHINESE. That makes her EVEN MORE dangerous.

    Russia must immediately BUST the PETRODOLLAR by selling its oil and gas for YUAN or EURO.

    Oil and gas prices will REDUCE in 2017 when USA becomes self sufficient in oil and possibly export too!

    So Russia has a very small window to achieve its targets. DESTABILIZING Saudi is another plan it should follow.

    Yes; the US-EU camp will end up with a BLOODY NOSE after the FAILED SPRING.

  4. mario_perera Says:

    The ‘Arab Spring’ has boomeranged !

    Let us see how the “Spring Masters” (to use your term!) cope with this, now that they are no longer dealing with some poor godforsaken developing countries unable to defend themselves effectively! ”

    the ‘spring masters’ can no longer sprint away, but must face the brunt.

    I am reminded of a verse from the Old Testament: they dug a grave for others, but fell they themselves into the same grave.

    Mario Perera
    Kadawata

  5. Dilrook Says:

    Regime change by force will not work in Sri Lanka as the government is popular. However, the ruling clan must reign in wastage and corruption for it to last. It should also indentify the profile of its voters and their aspirations. Otherwise it is playing into the hands of regime change agents.

    2001 was a classic case of regime change initiated by the UNP and LTTE with the help of western ‘facilitators’ of the peace process. As with most regime change events it didn’t last. The UNF government collapsed within 2 years despite the ‘facilitators’ pumping in money.

    USA is indeed looking to introduce a choke point in Sri Lanka against Chinese shipping. Diego Garcia is far too away from activity and a base in Sri Lanka would suit them well.

  6. Mr. Bernard Wijeyasingha Says:

    The “new world order” ushered in by President Herbert Walker Bush (Bush 1) thought it meant the steady rise of the Sole Superpower, the US and the unyielding Colonialist European powers embodied in Great Britain. Now the “New World order” is a massive shift of power from that Western region to the Asia Pacific region, with the rise of Russia and China as the central power of the world.

    The “new world order” is also seeing the demise of the EU and the US to regional powers. Just in Ukraine alone Putin does not need to fire a single shot. He has demanded the past payment of 16 Billion dollars owed to Russia by Kiev and has raised the cost of gas to 500 Dollar per one thousand Cubic feet of Gas. Kiev has bulked. Most of Russia”s oil and gas supplies go through Ukraine to the rest of Europe.

    Putin has threatened to cut off supply if the 16 Billion is not paid and future purchases are at the record price of 500 dollars per one thousand cubic feet of gas. All Moscow needs to do is pull out of the industrial belt located in East Ukraine and that nation will collapse. To date the US and NATO have been blustering threats since they cannot afford a war with Russia without in some level involving China.

    As for Great Britain the issue that Scotland may decide to secede is now a reality. If Scotland breaks out of the United Kingdom it will be a devastating blow to our former Colonial ruler. Good luck Scotland. I support your freedom fighters to achieve independence from the autocratic rule by England.

  7. Mr. Bernard Wijeyasingha Says:

    Dilrook: “USA is indeed looking to introduce a choke point in Sri Lanka against Chinese shipping. Diego Garcia is far too away from activity and a base in Sri Lanka would suit them well.” Just to let you know the US plans to close Diego Garcia once the lease on it runs out in 2016 with Great Britain. It will revert to Mauritius who does not want a US presence. Diego Garcia is the only US military base with nukes. But it has been rendered useless since both India and china have long ranged nuclear missiles that can reach Diego Garcia.

    The US also approached the Maldive nation to build a military based. But the Maldives turned the US down using the excuse that it would violated the security sensitivities of Sri Lanka and India. In the meantime Russia plans to build two military bases in the Indian ocean. One in Seychelles and another in Singapore. Neither one of them used any excuse that such a base would be a military threat to India, China or any other nation.

    Russia also plans to build three military bases in the New World. One in Cuba, another in Venezuela and a third in Nicaragua thereby ending the “Monroe Doctrine” of the US. In total Russia plans to build 8 military bases across the world. As for China she has not yet made any moves to build military bases….yet.

    Lorenzo; Russia has also mentioned the option of using gold instead of the Dollar. As for Saudi Arabia they are furious with the US for opening up ties with Iran whose nuclear weapons program is steadily improving. This leaves Saudi Arabia and other Arab states with little choice but to purchase the nuclear tech. to become nuclear weapons states themselves. Pakistan’s nuclear father Dr. Khan sold that tech. to Iran and North Korea and most likely maybe a conduit in selling the same to Saudi Arabia. India got her tech. from the former USSR. As for Hilarious Hillary any war with the existing powers such as Russia WILL INVOLVE China. Outside of Russia and China the US has no real military rivals. Hillary cannot avoid China. China is all over the place. Any war be it in the Middle East to Russia will involve China to some degree.

    The US is already producing more oil than Saudi Arabia but that has not translated to lower oil prices. The oil industry will keep the prices high in the US no matter how much oil we produce. The demand for oil and gas is surpassing its supply, mainly by the Asia Pacific region that needs ever more oil.

  8. Lorenzo Says:

    BW,

    But USA has only started its fracking revolution. As it progresses (accompanied by earthquakes!!) USA will be SELF SUFFICIENT in oil. This is YET to happen. Then it will become a NET EXPORTER. That is when oil prices will fall.

  9. Nanda Says:

    Lorenzo,
    Oil prices will not fall substantially, unless US uses the FALL as a weapon. But it can’t. Real “ruling clan” in US is determined to reduce world’s population by creating conflicts everywhere and by poisoning in various ways.
    All these tricks to keep US alive.

  10. Lorenzo Says:

    Nanda,

    Oil prices ARE EXPECTED to reduce.

    World Bank: Crude oil, $/barrel
    2012 – $105
    2025 – $96

    Source: World Bank Commodity Forecast Price data, January 2014

    IMF: Spot Crude, $/barrel
    2012 – $105
    2019 – $86

    Source: IMF Commodity Price Forecasts, March 2014

    EIU Crude Oil Prices Forecast 2013-2017
    2012 – $105
    2018 – $93

    Source: EIU Economic and Commodity Forecast, December 2013

  11. Ananda-USA Says:

    Lorenzo,

    You said “USA will be SELF SUFFICIENT in oil”. NOT TRUE, notwithstanding the upsurge of fracking of geologic formations in the United States.

    The success of fracking in the US is for increasing the production of NATURAL GAS from otherwise insufficiently permeable, and therefore unproductive, SHALE formations (hardened and cemented MUD). This gas is now feeding electricity producing gas-powered electricity production plants in the United States and is also beginning to be exported abroad as Liquified Natural Gas (LNG).

    That is not the same thing as producing OIL, which is far more valuable than NATURAL GAS, that is usually present in permeable SAND reservoirs. The continental United States is no longer an oil producing region, because oil reservoirs from which oil can be recovered by primary processes under its own pressure, or by inexpensive secondary processes such as water flooding and CO2 gas injection are ALREADY DEPLETED.

    The remaining RESIDUAL OIL can be produced only by more complicated and expensive tertiary ENHANCED OIL RECOVERY, such as steam, surfactant, polymer and fire (in-situ combustion) processes, which are VERY EXPENSIVE and have very low recovery efficiencies. Therefore, for all PRACTICAL PURPOSES, the United States is NO LONGER AN OIL PRODUCING region.

    However, there are PRODUCING OIL reservoirs OFFSHORE, and more waiting to be discovered, in the Gulf of Mexico, off California Coast, and offshore Alaska. Offshore production by anything other than but primary production from GIANT OFFSHORE FIELDS that can exploit existing offshore oil production platfroms is VERY EXPENSIVE compared to onshore production. Therefore, Enhanced Oil Recovery OFFSHORE will be prohibitively expensive. Current OFFSHORE production of oil is declining in the US due to natural depletion. Further, emerging environmental regulations to protect sensitive marine resources from oil spills is making it very difficult to get permits to explore and drill for new oil OFFSHORE of the US coastline.

    The bottomline is: The US will NEVER EXPORT OIL from Domestic Resources in the future.

    I should know, for I have worked as a R&D Manager for Gulf Oil Cor/Chevron Corp (in fact was in charge of Fracking R&D at Gulf Oil Corp) for nearly 10 years, and even today consult for the US Petroleum Industry. This is one of my many technology and scientific R&D interests that is now focused on Alternative Energy, Advanced Transportation and Military Robotics.

  12. Lorenzo Says:

    Ananda,

    Not questioning your authority on the subject.

    But according to US government EIA website USA will be SELF SUFFICIENT in oil soon. It even predicts NET EXPORTS in years ahead. At the moment oil exports are BANNED in USA. But there are calls to lift the ban.

    The CONTEXT of the oil argument is IF global oil prices fall (AS THEY WILL), the military spending of Russia will GO DOWN. Already Russia spends 4.1% of GDP on defence!! Very high (less than USA but USA is in deep debt).

    When USA is SELF SUFFICIENT in oil or exports OR even reduces oil IMPORTS, that pushes world oil prices DOWN.

    This is so according to ALL predications I have given above. That means Russia will be STRUGGLING to UP its defence budget in years to come.

    So my argument is, because oil revenue is going to get relatively lower in another few years’ time, and oil is Russia’s mainstay, it should SETTLE the Ukraine, etc. problems SOON. Russia cannot afford to drag this on for years.

    Today Russia will parade its 2 new air defence and anti-missile defence systems.

  13. Ananda-USA Says:

    Lorenzo,

    Please send me the link to the US govt webpage you are referring to; it is simply not true that the US will ever have enough OIL to EXPORT to other countries. GAS yes, OIL no!

  14. Lorenzo Says:

    Biggest defence spenders 2013

    USA (DOWN)
    China (UP)
    Russia (UP)
    Saudi (UP)
    France (DOWN)
    UK (DOWN)
    Germany (UP)
    Japan (UP)
    Endia (UP)
    South Korea
    Italy
    Brazil
    Australia
    Turkey
    UAE

    Israel is not there. UAE has come in!!! These 15 account for 80% of world defence spend of $2 trillion.

    Endia in 9th place.

  15. Lorenzo Says:

    Search by eia-dot-gov-slash-todayinenergy.

  16. Ananda-USA Says:

    Lorenzo,

    I could not find ANYWHERE in the EIA-website, that you referred me to, that the US will become a NET EXPORTER OF OIL anytime in the future, even if the current congressional ban on oil exports is lifted.

    The problem is: the US does not have the OIL RESERVES to meet its own needs for OIL and become a NET EXPORTER OF OIL.

    The article below supports that FACT.

    …………..
    Aleklett’s Energy Mix
    Global Energy Systems, peak oil, etc

    Future crude oil export from the USA

    Posted on February 19, 2014

    We regularly read in the newspapers that the USA will become an oil exporter. But at the same time if one reads what the USA’s energy authority, the EIA, publishes then we can count on the USA importing millions of barrels of oil per day during the next 20 years. It can be difficult to understand that both assertions can be true.

    The oil that is produced through fracking is a light oil which also includes natural gas liquids and condensate. Production volumes from fracking are now so great that the US refineries cannot process it all. For a number of years the USA expanded its refineries’ capacity to handle heavy oil imported from Canada’s oil sands. To now exchange the heavy oil for the light oil from fracking means that the refined products gasoline and diesel will become more expensive than if the USA used imported heavy oil to make them. Therefore, the oil industry in the USA wants to export the light oil from fracking that can be used in other parts of the world and, instead, import oil more suitable for its refineries. Today they are not allowed to do that.

    Currently, the crude oil that is produced in the USA is cheaper than, for example, that which is produced from the North Sea and it would be easy to find buyers for this oil outside of the USA. The hopes are that exportation of light oil from the USA would put downward pressure on the international oil price so that oil imports would become cheaper. According to US industry, this would reduce the price of gasoline for the US consumer despite the fact that US-produced oil would fetch a higher price on the international market. Today, the USA’s refineries sell some of their products to the rest of the world and they can do this because their production capacity is greater than that required by diminishing US demand. We will see what happens in the future but it is important to understand that the USA is not self-sufficient in oil and that it will not become so in future.

  17. Ananda-USA Says:

    Lorenzo,

    On the other hand, I found the following article that supports what you said.

    However, speaking from my own knowledge, I don’t believe that the US will EVER become self-sufficient in OIL. The only option that the US has is to move away from OIL first to Natural Gas, then to Nuclear Energy and to Renewables.

    ……………………….
    US to become self-sufficient in oil production in 23 years

    April 9, 2014

    At the end of 2013, statistics suggested that US oil production in October 2013 exceeded monthly oil imports for the first time since 1995

    A US government report expects that the United States will become self-sufficient in oil production by the year 2037. This means that oil imports are expected to fall to zero as a result of increases in the local production of domestic crude supplies, including in North Dakota’s Bakken field and Texas’s Eagle Ford formation.

    The report, which was prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department, predicts that the US oil supply will meet local demand in 23 years.

    “This is the first time that a case in the Annual Energy Outlook has projected that net imports’ share of liquid fuels consumption could reach zero,” said John Krohn, a spokesperson for the EIA, according to Al-Jazeera network.

    Long-term estimates of oil production constitute a tricky issue, wherein analysts need to take into account a number of factors, including the exact size of the existing reserves at a depth of thousands of feet underground as well as rapid developments in the techniques of oil extraction, not to mention the fluctuating global price of oil.

    Recently, the department also predicted that this year the US would reach its highest level of oil production in 43 years, due to an increase in the production of shale oil to 9.3 million barrels per day.

    However, it is important to note that the process to extract shale oil, known as fracking, is also quite controversial, because it requires massive amounts of water to be transported to the wells and releases carcinogenic chemicals into the environment. Furthermore, some argue that the wells dry up more quickly than is currently estimated.

    At the end of 2013, statistics suggested that US oil production in October 2013 exceeded monthly oil imports for the first time since 1995.

  18. Lorenzo Says:

    Ananda,

    If I paste the web link the comment won’t go through.

    (BTW you are in the right job. BIG prospects.)

    Lets add oil, gas, CSG. They can replace Russia’s MAIN INCOME EARNER which it now uses as a weapon. Oil (AND GAS) prices will fall as WB, IMF, OECD estimates reducing Russian income.

    I’m not against it but Russia has a small window to get things done its way.

    IF east Ukraine doesn’t join Russia soon, Russia should TIGHTEN SCREWS in winter. Ukraine will either freeze to death or toe the Rusky line. Poor Ukraine. They fell to the US trap. Not rosy as they thought. IF EU tries to BAIL OUT Ukraine, the entire EU will sink!!

    China using Russia’s vulnerability has negotiated for damn cheap gas prices in proposed Siberia-China pipeline which will be up in 2018.

  19. Mr. Bernard Wijeyasingha Says:

    Lorenzo: I got my information from an article in the Asia Times. It addressed US fracking. The process involves injecting toxic chemicals to dissolve the rock and release the gas and oil. The process and the amount retrieved is fast and the area under fracking quickly depletes. This forces the company to rapidly move to the next area where they do the process all over again.
    The article pointed to the rapid increase in toxic chemicals left in those subterranean areas after the gas and oil has been removed. The long term consequences of this was the question. In the process of addressing the ecological damage done by fracking the article pointed out that “Saudi America” is already producing more oil and gas than Saudi Arabia. To date that has not led to any lowering of oil or gas at the retail sector.
    In another article China (which if judged by land alone is the 2nd largest nation in the world according to the Wikipedia) has enormous untapped gas and oil in shale but does not have the technology to extract it. In yet another article Russia is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. Yet with all the oil from OPEC to the North sea in Europe. to that from the New world and Russia the price of oil and gas keeps going up.

    There maybe another reason why oil will not go down. During the. Starting roughly in the 1920s to the 1930’s and going for a few decades, a cartel of Rubber, Tire, Oil and gas industries managed to dismantle the railway system of the US. By the 1960’s hardly an American city had a viable railway system. Even today Amtrak is one of the only options for rail travel by Americans. They did this to destroy the railway system in order to promote the car which needed tires and also helped the rubber including the oil and gas industries. It worked well for the US became a car dependent nation.

    Another example is De beers. The world diamond industry is at a glut. Outside of South Africa, Russia is one of the world’s largest producer of diamonds, there are other African nations also producing diamonds but the price of a good diamond continues to rise. One of the reasons sited in Newsweek is that De beers is holding a vast amount of Diamonds from the international market in order to keep the price of that gemstone at an artificially high price.

    In the same light those who control the oil and gas have a vested interest to see the failure of any alternative energy and to keep the price of oil at an artificially high level. If one looks at this in a purely business sense the price of oil will be kept high. another example in OPEC. when ever oil prices start lowering the oil producing nations lessen the production thereby keeping the price of oil rising and not decreasing. When OPEC ruled the world in the export of oil they manipulated the price of oil by increasing or lowering their output.

  20. Ananda-USA Says:

    BW,

    “The process involves injecting toxic chemicals to dissolve the rock and release the gas and oil.” ACUTALLY, the PRIMARY mechanism of fracturing rock deep underground is parting the rock under HYDRAULIC PRESSURE. As long as you inject fluids above the minimum in-situ stress, the crack will form and extend normal to the direction of the minimum in-situ stress.

    The first fluid pumped is a low viscosity liquidlike water with pH balancers (to prevent rock swelling) and anti-leak-off fluids that reduce escape of the fluid through the rock pores. Behind it various “proppants” (sand, ceramic pebbles, even crushed walnut shells) suspended in even more viscous are pumped to keep the fracturre open at the end of pumping when the pressure is relieved. The leak-off fluids, which cake on the rock surface, are removed by acidinzing the fracture. Sometimes, the fracture surfaces are eroded by stronger “acidizing” to make the conductivity of the fracture even greater. This works well in limestone formations, but not so well in shales and tight sands.

    Fracking liquids consisting of polymeric thickeners (like cornstarch) are not particularly toxic, but certain acidizing fluids can be. The toxicity becomes an issue primarily if the fracture punches through confining “aquitards” and invades adjoining “aquifers” bearing potable water. Then the primary toxicity comes from various smelly sulphurous (eg. hydrogen sulphide which smells of rotten eggs) and other gases associated with petroleum fluids that will contaminate potable water and make it undrinkable.

    The fear of contamination of potable aquifers is making Europeans quite wary of widespread fracking, whereas people in the US have not fully woken up to it, altough certain towns in PA were severely affected.

    People should be concerned because drinkable water is the MOST PRECIOUS thing that humans have in this world. Also, if underground fluid pressure is reduced by gas production, significant land subsidence can occur, destroying buildings, roads and other structures.

  21. Lorenzo Says:

    BW,

    But according to almost ALL forecasts, oil prices are going to go down. These forecasts are by CREDIBLE agencies and in 2014.

    Agree with the hazards of fracking. Flamables in water, earthquakes are other problems.

    I see HUGE POTENTIAL for fracking in Jaffna.

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