Is Uva 2014 the Equal of South 1993?
Posted on September 23rd, 2014

Dilrook Kannangara

History may repeat. Southern Provincial Council election of May 1993 was a turning point in political fortunes of the PA and political misfortunes of the UNP. It marked the collapse of the UNP government that was in power for 17 long years. Actually by 1994, the UNP secured the Southern Province marginally with coercion and misusing a colossal amount of state funds. Then happened the infamous Francisco debacle which is somewhat similar to the antics of Sendil Thondaman saga who is said to be on the fence between UPFA and UNP. If he leaves the UPFA, the lead will fall to just 2 seats. That would lead to further instability which may collapse the Uva Provincial Council. Ensuing elections will definitely bring the UNP to power as it happened in the Southern Provincial Council election in 1994 which had a domino effect. UNP is probably gunning for this end by destabilizing the Uva Provincial Council.

 What the Numbers Say

In Badulla, UNP and JVP together won more votes than the UPFA. This is historical as Badulla remains the only Sinhala majority district to tip the scales against the UPFA since 2005 Presidential Election. UNP’s Tamil candidate won more votes than UPFA’s (CWC) Tamil candidate which means even big names don’t deter Tamil voters from voting against the UPFA. Therefore, relying on CWC and SLMC to overcome UPFA’s weakness of getting minority votes will not work. Out of all electorates, UPFA lost in Badulla and Hali Ela. These are the electorates of reconciliation bigwigs – Nimal Siripala De Silva and Dilan Perera. These two electorates with the highest minority voters’ percentage rejected them.

 Fonseka’s Democratic Party lost very badly. With a crossover, it’s representation in provincial councils has now fallen to zero. It is just a name board party today. Weerawansa’s NFF though failed to win a seat in its own right, won one seat under the UPFA ticket.

 UPFA easily won Monaragala District exploiting its poverty and drought. Millions of rupees of election sweeteners were channelled to the district. Only the Monaragala District received drought relief following a Supreme Court decision. Other districts were deprived of it. Such extravagant spending of money is not sustainable. It was also reported that all the goodies have vanished immediately after the election leaving people to their own devices. Knowing it, the UNP and JVP will push for a repeat election soon where the power balance will change parties.

What Went Right for the UPFA in 2009 and Wrong in 2014?

Despite economic hardships of the war, people voted for the UPFA in 2009 with a historically highest win of 72%. It was the hope it instilled in the people, especially Sinhala people, that won it the day in 2009. However, after 2010, the ruling clan neglected the Sinhala voter and started pouring money to Tamil-only north and Tamil-Muslim dominated east. If war devastation was the criteria for pumping 90% of borrowed money to the north and the east, no other province deserves it better than Uva. It was the rice bowl of the nation until British invaders with their coolie slave soldiers destroyed it in 1818. Wellassa stands for a hundred thousand small water bodies that sustained its agriculture. Not rehabilitating them is the root cause of the water problem affecting the people.

 Laying down water pipes for Jaffna instead of Monaragala is what caused the election debacle.

 Despite claims of the stench of tens of thousands of Tamil dead and incarcerated, in 2010 the UPFA won a landslide victory. But the sweet smell of peace five years after the war only won it a hopeless win with the potential of a future defeat.

 In economic terms, it is a disastrous resource allocation decision. More resources were allocated to electorally worthless north (90%) while neglecting the electorally fertile south (10%). As this trend continues unabated, UPFA’s political misfortunes will continue.  Post-2010 government strategy of victory marches for the south and computer labs for the north has been proven a disaster. It will drag the entire government down.

 It is wrong to think showering economic benefits on Tamils will make it easier for the ruling clan at the UNHRC session or they will get concessions in the war crimes front. No such benefits are forthcoming. By wasting more on the north and less on the south, the ruling clan’s political prospects will be dashed. Once they are out of power, they will be the subject of war crimes investigations. The Opposition has already promised to initiate and co-operate with such an investigation. The only path to safety for the ruling clan is to serve the voters (not non-voters) and retain power.

 Too Many Fathers Claiming Victory

 As it is said victory has many fathers while defeat is an orphan. After the war victory in 2009, many joined the ruling clan claiming paternity of the victory. Name board political parties that cannot return a single parliamentarian alone, including the Liberal Party, LSSP, SLCP, SLMP, UNP – Democratic faction, etc., made their way to the top. These electoral refuse started dictating terms to the government. They got their paramours protected from criminal liability, in-laws promoted to top posts and henchmen appointed to influential positions. All what they did was reverse the 2009 victory in the name of reconciliation. They failed to save the nation at the UNHRC and failed to win votes for the UPFA. They are a grave burden today to the nation and its patriotic forces. These opportunists are now getting ready to escape the sinking ship.

 Widely rumoured 2015 Presidential Election will be a tough battle for the incumbent as the main Opposition has cracked the code of victory – winning Sinhala voters making use of the economic neglect by the ruling clan. Once set in motion, the trend will be irreversible. There is still time for the ruling clan to make a U-turn and champion the interests of the nationalist majority.

18 Responses to “Is Uva 2014 the Equal of South 1993?”

  1. Lorenzo Says:

    MR is using 13 amendment and PC elections as a BAROMETER to check people’s views.

    What a waste.

    The only thing patriots got after 2009 was victory rallies as the writer says.
    Tamils got everything from economic to power sharing.

  2. Marco Says:

    Rather foolhardy and short sighted analysis, thankfully the powers that be are not that “daft” to contemplate such scenarios even though UPFA went with a “loaded dice” to the Uva electorate.
    I wonder if the author considered that majority of the infrastructure and “beautification” has taken place in areas of Colombo and greater Colombo where UPFA will have great difficulty will securing a majority vote.
    According to his analysis that would be a waste of money in electoral terms.
    I assume what he is saying is that why waste money on the tamil citizens. Treat them as aliens, second class citizens.
    Well and good except from the recent Uva election results the Sri Lankan voters (all races) have woken up to the fact there is nothing called a “nationalist majority” except in the eyes of opportunistic politician clamouring for votes in the short term.

  3. Nanda Says:

    Some cannot understand the difference between 90% and 10%.

    A man served in the Army for 10 years was living in a polythene sheet cladded hut with 3 children when one of the children was snatched by a Micro Brained idiot. At the same time LTTE members have become councillors and travel to Geneva. This is what MaaHindaa has done.

  4. aloy Says:

    News item: Runil to be the presidential candidate. Is this not what the doctor (MR) prescribed.
    They think the voters are buffaloes.

  5. Nanda Says:

    voters are electing buffaloes

  6. Lorenzo Says:

    UNP slogan – Ape gona apata onthaa!! Our ass is good for us!!

    EXCELLENT NEWS for common candidate losers including Kumar Dravid, Charles Saravankili, Michael Robert!!

    “United National Party (UNP) parliamentarian Akila Viraj Kariyawasam told a news conference at party headquarters Sirikotha today that UNP National Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe would be the party’s presidential candidate.

    “The UNP will not field any other candidate but will have its present leader as the presidential because what people want is a leader who is not corrupt, who can develop the economy and who is not interested in earning commissions,” he said.

    Mr. Kariyawasam said some senior ministers had lost their electorates at the Uva Provincial Council elections because the government did not allocate funds to cabinet ministers but they were allocated only through the Rajapaksas.

    “It is not surprising that Minister Nimal Siripala De Silva lost his electorate because the government had not provided him any funds for development projects. Funds are allocated only through the Rajapaksas. The Government wanted to defeat some senior ministers and it only wants to win MPs who are partial to the Rajapaksas,” he said.

    Mr. Kariyawasam said people had decided to end the Rajapaksa regime because they had taken a serious decision against the Rajapaksas.

    “Even the President was engaged in the door-to-door election campaign in Uva. People have realized that the government cannot win elections by talking about the war victory. People want the economy developed and the brazen and blatant corruption stopped,” he said.

    Mr. Kariyawasam said the UNP was going to take the people to the streets against this regime and people have shown that they were ready to do so.”

    -dailymirror.lk

  7. Lorenzo Says:

    What ALL election analysts forgot is Harin is a MP whereas Sasi Rajapaksa is NOT!

    That is a big advantage to the UNP. Fielding a national leader against a provincial leader has a DEFINITE advantage for the national leader.

    So the UNP gains in Uva should be DISCOUNTED.

    Aloy,

    “They think the voters are buffaloes.”

    UNP voters ARE buffaloes and asses. Ape kona apata onthaa!!

  8. Dilrook Says:

    Marco:

    It is a fact some Lankan politicians and their voters are daft. In other democracies an Opposition Leader won’t last for 20 years.

    Some beautification aspects are downright foolish as there are more meaningful avenues for dragging the City out of world’s worst 20 cities. Limiting overcrowding of certain crowded parts of the city is one.

    Nowhere I said Tamils should be second class citizens and other absurdities you say. It is important to understand equity (10% verses 90%). There is a nationalist majority in the country. The task of the nationalist political camp is to arouse their nationalism and make use of it for national economic benefit.

    Had 90% of borrowed money gone towards development of areas outside the north and east where 90% of people live and 90% of economic activity happens, Sri Lanka would not be borrowing anymore. Northern Province’s excellent economic growth of 25% only benefitted 5% of the population, almost all of them Tamils as displaced Sinhalese and Muslims were not resettled.

  9. Leela Says:

    If only one care to analyse past parliamentary election results, he should see that Badulla has always been a UNP bastion. For instance, at 2005 presidential election, UNP got 53% when it lost all island with 48.43%. At the 2000 general elections UNP won Badulla with 46.35% while PA getting 42.7%. Again at 2001 general elections in Badulla, UNP got 53.81% while PA getting only 37.3% and JVP, 7.17%. Even when UPFA and JVP joined together for 2004 general election, UNP got 49.09% which is more than UPFA’s (SLFP+JVP) 48.26%.

    Now, UNP lost Badulla for the first time in 2009/10 elections. What many failed to see is that that situation hasn’t changed to date. One must understand, 2009/10 elections are no ordinary elections for they were held aftermath the winning war against terrorists. At that time most people voted for MR and his appointees enmasse regardless party affiliations. That will not be repeated ever again. Hence, no realist would expect MR to achieve 2009/10 results at future elections. What is important is whether he can win with a reasonable margin.

    It must be mentioned that for election purposes, usefulness of war winning jubilation and euphoria is over and done with. Average man faces new realities and have new expectations. But the UNP under Ranil couldn’t capitalize the new situation to its advantage to date. Ranil cannot do it for his inherent qualities. In my opinion, it will continue to be so at least till the end of the presidential elections.

    UNP hierarchy are highlighting the increase in UNP votes at 2014 Uva PC elections as a huge achievement whereas it is a loss for UNP with a huge margin. UNP got 40% against UPFA’s 51%. In comparison to 2009/10, UNP has increased their numbers but is that a trend for a UNP win at the coming up presidential election or is it bluf like ‘computer jilmart’ to facilitate a UNP win?

  10. Christie Says:

    What I see is the power of the Tamils and other Indians. We research, analyse and fool ourselves. The only solution for the Sinhalese are to unite.

  11. aloy Says:

    Media men with the help of Colombians ensure that the Sinhalese are divided and retains the power in the hands of Colombians. There is no way out for the people in the rest of the country unless they too are rouges.

  12. aloy Says:

    Most important thing is to find out who owns the media and how they got funds to start those media houses.

  13. mario_perera Says:

    “Had 90% of borrowed money gone towards development of areas outside the north and east where 90% of people live and 90% of economic activity happens, Sri Lanka would not be borrowing anymore. Northern Province’s excellent economic growth of 25% only benefitted 5% of the population, almost all of them Tamils as displaced Sinhalese and Muslims were not resettled.” – Dilrook

    Now why had it to be so? Because MR tried to please and win over sections of people, governments and international institutions, in an endeavour that even the most mentally deranged idiot would have known to be a lost cause.

    The sad totally transparent conclusion is that the Sinhala people are pariahs in their own country, treated with scorn, disdain and utter contempt by their own elected leaders. They are made to eat like starving mongrels the crumbs falling off the tables laid out to usurpers.

    Call the elected leaders the UNP or the SLFP or whatever, the fate and destiny of the Sinhala people is a foregone conclusion.

    Mario Perera
    Kadawata

  14. Marco Says:

    Dilrook thanks for your response.
    I wonder which part of my comment above yo consider to be an “absurdity”.
    Compare that to the foolhardy and disingenuous statement “If war devastation was the criteria for pumping 90% of borrowed money to the north and the east,” You know that is not true. perhaps you will like to name your source.
    Your credibility is lost by making such an “absurd” statement.

    If you are proposing that majority of the countries resources (borrowed or not) should be assigned to the majority race, you are effectively saying the other Sri Lankan races are to be second class citizens. You talk about equity, following your example, if the 10% of the minority classes receive only 10% of the resources perhaps they should be contributing only 10% of the total tax revenue.
    Tamil separatist would further argue let us 10% look after are own affairs. What about the Sri Lankan who have a mixed parentage? Where do they stand?

    You also forget that the Northern & Eastern province economic growth rate of 25% (your figure not mine!) is easily achievable when the war torn areas started with a negative figure. Perhaps, you are not aware of the aid (not loans!)given by various agencies specifically for developing the infrastructure in N & E.

  15. Lorenzo Says:

    Micro brain is thinking on the lines of DOOMED LTTE logic!

    SWORD B had only 5 seats until 1955. Then he won 3/4 seats thanks to his SINHALA ONLY in 1956. That was the reason why his wife and daughter winning elections later. Otherwise NO ONE would know these women!

    Leela,

    But in 2004, JHU was the reason UPFA didn’t win the district. JHU SPOILT a UPFA win. JHU forced UPFA to either accept WAR or lose. A good strategy. Had UPFA agreed to war before the election, JHU would have worked with it and WON Badulla and Colombo in 2004.

    MR HAD to agree to JHU war demand in 2005. OTHERWISE MR could have LOST the 2005 presidential election!

    NFF contested alone in Badulla and almost defeated UPFA. That should be ENOUGH for MR to give in to Weewansha’s demands BEFORE the next presidential election. Apparently Basil and WW had a heated exchange of words after the election. They plan to CUT DOWN his ministries. A FOOLISH decision by politically INEXPERIENCED Basil.

  16. douglas Says:

    JAYAWEWA . HIP HIP HURRAY. — We WON and “A BIG THANK YOU FOR ALL OUR MEMBERS”.

    Hooligans/Goons/Morons & Co, Ltd. (Incorporated under the UPFA) and “Sponsored and Financed by DRUG BARONS International.

    We at present are busy on a recruiting campaign country wide. The Remuneration is “UNLIMITED” and among other “BENEFITS” transportation will be provided in “Luxury”( this time most probably in “Lambeganie”; sorry we do not know to spell this word as it is quite new) vehicles with fake number plates and sometimes without such numbers. We assure you that the Law Enforcement Agencies will not lay hands on you. The time is running out, because the BIG EVENTS are coming soon and we need to TRAIN you well in advance. No written applications or personal details are required. You can appear in person at the addresses that will be provided in due course. BUT BE READY. One thing we forgot. Please recite at every moment on a daily basis our “THEME SONG”:-

    “AVADI WANNA, AVADI WANNA, DEEPTHIMATH KALAYAKI UDAWELA THIYENE…..” (AWAKE, AWAKE, IT IS THE DAWN OF A BRIGHT DAY).

    NB: Please do not read all these election “Analysis” by the Professors. Let them do the talking and we will do what is NEEDED. We will invest all our skills in that 80% of the country to win, because the remaining 20% is not so easy to hoodwink.

  17. Nanda Says:

    According to Douglas Angulimaala is going to kill his mother soon. Anyone to put him in the correct path ?

  18. Lorenzo Says:

    Douglas’s comment is BIASED towards UNP. No surprise.

    UNP also has THUGS, DRUG DEALERS, BATALANDA EXECUTIONER, MASS MURDERERS, TERRORISTS, etc.

    Some 3 months ago Harin and Dayasiri punched each other in a TV debate after calling each other sexually derotatory comments!

    If BOTH are NOT thugs, who else are thugs!

    Selective amnesia? Shame. Elephants are supposed to have a good memory.

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