BATTLE OF THE BLUES
Posted on December 8th, 2014
By Gomin Dayasri
A born again Chandrika is phenomenal. Found wanted nowhere and is being sought after everywhere. Maybe, the reason why she is Always late and Never on time [Reply: Don’t hurry to worry?] – her signature tune that is not pleasant to those who have to wait in vain: probably choreographed to provide an awe element; holds the key to the doing or undoing of her candidate Sirisena: her silhouette or shadow. Sirisena is the SLFP bride that eloped on the eve of the wedding without the retinue.
Coming out of retirement on her persuasion, best on a stump, single handedly toppled a UNP regime of 18 years; holds the record for the largest majority secured at a presidential election. Takes on another Giant; is Chandrika looked upon as a demi–god in the SLFP, an Annebeth Chase daughter of goddess Athena in the G.K. Rawling’s novels? Indeed the daughter of two much loved prime ministers among the rural folk.
Some may dislike Mahinda others may hate Ranil; both are necessary evils for the good of a country devoid of mature and experienced politicians. Undoubtedly Chandrika, is a skilled and wily politician, likewise, is she disliked or hated? Answer: Yet to find any two legged creature wanting to be ruled again by a Chandrika prone administration! Reason: Searched helplessly for a single Chandrika achievement or monument in her two-term presidency? Sirisena is burdened with a load too heavy to carry. Poor lad, don’t permit the load to let you down. How did Ranil and the UNP miss the signal and forfeit the candidature?
Chandrika was chaotic but amidst the chaos there was a charming smile that disarmed any complaint. Loose that smile and charm, loose most everything, except the family name – a forgotten chapter in the under-40 voters club.
Is Ranil ahead or beneath the UNP? Silly-Billy, it’s the UNP that is in the forefront. Party counts more than a Person. Had the opportunity of his lifetime but fluffed it, by not coming forward as the third candidate along with the ‘common’ candidate. Surely the divided vote between two candidates with varying shades of blue from the same camp would have ensured victory to the holder of the opposite color green. Missed it again? Now it’s a battle of the Blues –dark blues against the light blues.
It’s being a long day’s night but may not be in vain. Has to await a general election in which neither major party gets a working majority –the most rewarding result for Sri Lanka: the need of the times. A coalition between the two major parties of Sri Lanka [UPFA of Mahinda Rajapakse & UNP of Ranil, Karu and Sajith] is a compelling need to keep a disoriented economy, muddled foreign affairs and a divisive TNA in their proper places. It will bring a 17 minus (-) & 18 minus (-) amendment and take the sting out of the constitution with necessary amendments possible with the easily accessible two third majority. It will automatically shove any possible division of the country to the garbage bin, as the two major parties stand united. Let the TNA become the Leader of the Opposition as it once did previously and acted responsibly provided the JVP is represented in Parliament. JVP with Anura Dissanayake at the helm has made it a principled political party that has regained its stature after the departure of erratic Somawansa.
Ranil wrote off himself and the UNP prematurely and unfairly- due lack of confidence and the fear of constant defeat- not realizing the potential of the members of the UNP that stayed with him in the worst of times, now giving way to those ‘come lately johnnies’ from the UPFA, as expressed succinctly by Tissa Attanayake. Any formidable candidate of the UNP is stronger than a nominee of Chandrika, when the votes are counted. Ranil should place his trust in the evergreen party members rather than those who switch parties to save their seats – especially the revolving rump. Ranil as Prime Minister with Rajapakse as President will automatically bring the 2/3 majority to restructure the constitution.
There is not a great distance to cover between the SLFP and UNP with a frequent flyer service flowing to and from with comfortable access to the entrances of both party officers. The difference lies only in the personality and the style of leadership between the leaders of both parties at all times [in this case Mahinda and Ranil] otherwise the parties are twins in substance and appearance. Naturally S.W.R.D Bandaranaike and his team of M.P’s with followers left the UNP to form the SLFP. This is not the case of the L.S.S.P or CP or JVP or TNA.
Therefore if one side wins a national election, MPs on the loosing side can fly cross the aisle without any discomfort to the government, making a mockery of the constitution due to the interpretations of the judiciary. The winner acquires a majority after a general election unlike at a presidential election.
Much of the movements were engineered and made possible during a period when a controversial Chief Justice headed the judiciary. It was not long ago when Dr Neville Fernando, Gamini Dissanayake, Lailt Athulathmudali were removed from UNP membership and forfeited their seats when Chief Justices’ stood upright and ensured courts adhered to the spirit of the constitution. Wavering judiciary of an unfortunate period has destabilized the country for all times. They before any politician should be blamed for tinkering with the constitution. Instead they still roam around giving silly interpretations because politicians like to hear any tune that a piper plays that pleases their ear.
Sri Lankans have short memories and much is forgotten and forgiven. For the Colombians, any passing devil is an angel, if the mission is to displace the Rajapakses’- understandable, with a surfeit of friends and relations planted in high places, in a competitive society and good governance is becoming virtually unknown. If Rajapakse wins the election many will crawl back to him. Words of General Fonseka spoken on defeat are words of wisdom emanating from a man who has experienced it first hand.
Rajapakse won a war and ushered peace on which dividend the country forges ahead. We live a secure life due to the bold initiative of the Rajapakses’ in uprooting the LTTE from its undergrowth, for which the West seeks to punish us. Yet Rajapakse is like Sirimavo Bandaranaike, is asking too from the rural masses and taking them for granted. They sent her packing home with seven electorates-coming mostly from the multi member seats.
Ranil as Prime Minister ran a pragmatic administration where law and order prevailed and financial discipline was tightly controlled to the extent that it kept a lid on the middle classes growing to become an expanded middle-income society as of present. Ranil was confronted with an ongoing war notwithstanding periodic spells of artificial peace caused by the failed ceasefire agreement that led to his fall. Ironically his UNP minister who was more responsible for the transactions with the LTTE is having a time of his life time in the comfort of the government as its most travelled Foreign Minister. What is the secret of success? Throw principles to wind and learn to switch parties knowing the backing of the judiciary is in your pocket if your own welfare is foremost. Mahinda Rajapakse and Ranil Wickremasinghe are more principled politicians to stand by their policies whether they win or loose. Don’t monkey with the judiciary yet don’t hesitate to decapitate those judges that fail to maintain high standards.
Mahinda enlarged the comfort levels of the middle-income group with the oncoming of peace that enabled home grown business to thrive from their households. It was possible because Rajapakse took the proper option of wiping out terrorism from its roots that made the people think of a life style beyond safeguarding the security of their family. With Ranil a stagnant middle class maintained its compartmentalized distinction between the middle and upper middle classes that is a fundamental to the UNP gentry; Mahinda diluted it and turned it into a middle-income society of an over consuming majority- making money circulate to thrive the economy.
Travel along any road in the South of Sri Lanka and see the spouting name boards of lively private enterprises displayed in homes and gardens that reflect the spirit of the emerging middle -income society that point to the future of the urban Sri Lankan economy. It is sadly absent when you pass Vavuniya on M9 towards the North because the Rajapakse regime has failed to create the infrastructure to put money in to the pockets of the northerners. They will loose votes that should have been in their hip pocket if they sheltered the valued Jaffna wallet.
Rajapakse regime stinks of corruption and the want of good governance. Much of it is unfortunately forgiven with the continuing efforts to splendidly save the nation from foreign assault for winning the war that has made poor reap the benefits that peace provided. Rural Poor unlike the comfortable Colombians are lesser timeservers adding value by factoring gratitude. They also know little of current events that do not touch them. It’s those mothers that need be saluted for providing sons and daughters that made Sri Lanka overcome terrorism during our lifetime and save the country from a possible division.
Future of the people of Sri Lanka is in their hands. Their decision is better than mine. They do the needful better.
December 7th, 2014 at 5:14 pm
“Therefore if one side wins a national election, MPs on the loosing side can fly cross the aisle without any discomfort to the government, making a mockery of the constitution due to the interpretations of the judiciary. The winner acquires a majority after a general election unlike at a presidential election.”
This is what I have ben TRYING to tell the good patriot NMY.
“It’s those mothers that need be saluted for providing sons and daughters that made Sri Lanka overcome terrorism during our lifetime and save the country from a possible division.
Future of the people of Sri Lanka is in their hands. Their decision is better than mine. They do the needful better.”
WELL SAID.
It was the PEOPLE, not politicians that won the war. Politicians have REVERSED the war victory. MR was given a 2/3 byt he grateful people for providing leadership for the war in 2010.
People are NO MORE INDEBTED to MR.
December 7th, 2014 at 8:17 pm
Gomin is now having an IMPOSSIBLE WET DREAM of a Unity Government between avowed Patriots and avowed anti-nationalist puppets of Foreign Forces, to wit:
“A coalition between the two major parties of Sri Lanka [UPFA of Mahinda Rajapakse & UNP of Ranil, Karu and Sajith] is a compelling need to keep a disoriented economy, muddled foreign affairs and a divisive TNA in their proper places.”
“Ranil as Prime Minister with Rajapakse as President will automatically bring the 2/3 majority to restructure the constitution.”
This could not be achieved at the HEIGHT of the WAR OF LIBERATION of our Motherland from Separatist Terror when “Pamankada not Alimankada” was the MOCKING REPLY; why should it be different now?
This is an IMPOSSIBLE WET DREAM that would give birth to a HUNG GOVERNMENT DIVIDED WITHIN ITSELF that would be INCAPABLE of ACCOMPLISHING ANYTHING to PROTECT, DEFEND and GROW the Nation!
This is a PRESCRIPTION for NATIONAL SUICIDE!
December 7th, 2014 at 8:35 pm
Ananda,
A friendly warning NOT to disrespect the GREATEST PATRIOT of our time.
Great minds think alike!
December 7th, 2014 at 8:41 pm
Lorenzo,
Please tell me who this “GREATEST PATRIOT” is; I am at a loss!
December 7th, 2014 at 8:49 pm
Such ungrateful!
The man who argued the case to split the north from the east.
The man who argued against LAND powers to PCs.
He has achieved much more than you and me banging a keyboard at bedtime.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:24 am
Lorenzo
It is true that Gomin is a patriot. But his dream will never come true.
UNP secretary Attanayake has already joined the Government. Democratic Party deputy leader MP Ketagoda will also join the government with half a dozen provincial members..
So your expectation may very well end up in Aiyo Sirisena
December 8th, 2014 at 1:36 am
Lorenzo
People will never support any coalition that will promise Police and Land Power to Provincial government. It is clear that UNP has already adopted that policy.
Your wishful thinking that a national government can emerge after Sirisena wining the election is highly improbable.
At this sensitive time no one will ever talk about abolition of amendment 13A except you.
December 8th, 2014 at 2:11 am
Lorenzo,
I am convinced My3 is the one who deserves, mainly due to the following,
* His reasons for cross over and his supporters top urgency matter are real and true.
* President’s negative campaign show he has nothing to give. He has already given everything to TNA and Muslims in general.
*last minute Chanda Gundu are disgusting – people are educated now and cannot be fooled.
A lot of REAL PATIRIOTS ( not the keyboard heroes ones like us) have reiterated enough is enough on family rule , corruption , greed to run 3 times and complete disregard to parliament and ministers cannot go on for another 8 years.
“It’s those mothers that need be saluted for providing sons and daughters that made Sri Lanka overcome terrorism during our lifetime and save the country from a possible division.
Future of the people of Sri Lanka is in their hands. Their decision is better than mine. They do the needful better.”
December 8th, 2014 at 2:28 am
JUST FORGET ABOUT SIRISENA GOIYA WINNING THE ELECTION. It’s a one sided game.No need arguments. Ranil,Fonseka,Chandrika trio all will end up selling bananas at Pettah market. They dont have anything to give to the people. They were all traitors financed by Americans and British. People have eyes and ears so do not try to misguide the citizens at any time. For 10 years UNP couldnt find a leader to contest the elections so what else we can expect from this bankrupt party. NOTHING!
We will get rid of all these enemies to our Motherland same way we got rid of LTTE murderers. Our nation is moving forward and we will not allow the traitors to take it backward. Those who support our enemies within the country and outside should think twice this time. Long live Sri Lanka
December 8th, 2014 at 2:46 am
My3 is a bold man. He is a true Buddhist who keeps 5 precepts. We can trust him.
We cannot trust the President anymore. Give me Gotabhaya I will support him.
Why do we have to worry about Runil, Chanrika , Fonseka ( mind you he won the war for us).
December 8th, 2014 at 2:50 am
Tissa Attanayaka is USELESS. He is a national list MP and a LOUSY spokesman.
He is after the health minister post. Nothing else.
UNP MP Chandrani Bandara has also crossed over. She won the highest preference votes for UNP from Anuradhapura. But now this beauty queen has NO appeal.
Karu J might also crossover, AGAIN.
December 8th, 2014 at 2:52 am
Independent,
Not to worry Putha. Like Doctor Do-Little My3 will beat Mervin the “Chow-Chow”.
December 8th, 2014 at 2:52 am
Don’t underestimate those mothers who provided sons and daughters that made Sri Lanka overcome terrorism during our lifetime and save the country from a possible division. The same power will be mobilised to defeat the president this time simply because he is following a completely opposite path, the same path Runil went but even worse, after the war.
Give me two good things he did for Sinhalayas after the war.
December 8th, 2014 at 3:02 am
Lorenzo,
No one estimated the percentage the president won as close as I did. This is because I have a spreadsheet for estimating votes based on various voting reasons. But I cannot estimate for the North as I do not know this factors.
At the moment my latest prediction has come down to 52% to My3 against 46% to the President. I will be umdating this according to latest developments as per input into micros.
December 8th, 2014 at 3:05 am
UNP votes are fixed. Mr. Attanayaka is nothing. Fonseka votes too are fixed ( these will never go to the President).JHU and JVP participation is crucial. They are the X-factor.
December 8th, 2014 at 3:12 am
Independent
North- 30% maximum 40% for MR .
December 8th, 2014 at 4:05 am
Independent – UNP votes are NOT fixed! Many UNP VOTERS (not politicians) are not comfortable voting for MS and see him as simply an opportunist trying to gain power. In think at least 30% of UNP votes will go to MR for that reason alone. Other UNP voters will not vote for MS because of his lack of experience and unproven leadership.
JHU is also split – with some prominent monks openly questioning the wisdom of backing MS.
BBS is split but the leadership is behind MR.
The Upcountry Tamils will vote for MR as he has done a lot to help them over the years.
The only FIXED vote is the TNA, who will back MS (at least the people who decide to vote – many will stay home) simply because the US has promised them that he is their only chance of getting devolved police and land powers and a Tamil state anytime soon.
The X factor is the Muslim vote, and I think MR splits this vote based on the relationships he already has with Muslim leaders and communities in Sri Lanka.
It really is unfortunate with all of the brain power at Sri Lanka universities that they don’t have reliable public polling of voters in the days and weeks prior to the election. This is very common in the US, with some websites like FiveThirtyEight.com that have aggregated all of the polls, assigned appropriate weights to filter out bias, account for demographic shifts, etc., and have made reasonably accurate predictions, especially in presidential races. Modern probability and statistics is certainly not beyond most Sri Lankan university math departments, so it is unfortunate that they are not contributing to the public with public polling of voter sentiment.
I am just curious what the press narrative is going to be in the West if MR INCREASES his margin over 2010 as expected. Maybe they will just drop the story altogether since their guy lost.
December 8th, 2014 at 5:25 am
Vimutti,
I accept it those are not 100% fixed. I have allowed for that.
As I said I am not sure how North votes this time. Lorenzo may not agree but I believe a considerable percentage will shit to the president , unlike last time. There are reasons for it, both I and Lorenzo have explained those (even though Lorenzo might say they will follow 90% TNA)> At the moment I believe 7:3 split. This may have to be changeon the information we receive later.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:47 pm
Head of Police Intelligence Services Division Chandra Vakista was SACKED for predicting My3 will win 59% and MR will get 41%.
Now the RAVAYA editor who reported it has been questioned by the CID!
Why CID is used for these? There is NO national security issue here. CID should not be used for POLITICAL purposes.
We all believe in Buddhism, Karma or Christianity. Why can’t we TOLERATE opposing POLITICAL VIEW PEACEFULLY?
We should NOT behave like Kim Jong Un who blames everything on a western conspiracy and sacks people.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:54 pm
Vimutti,
Over 90% UNP votes are FIXED.
They vote for the party’s position than to persons. Tissa A has NO votes. He is a national list MP.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:22 pm
Lorenzo,
If you talk to UNP VOTERS, it is clear they are not sold on MS.
Too bad Sri Lanka doesn’t have PUBLIC polling of voter sentiment like most places, or this would be clear to all and probably result in a LOT more UNP crossovers to the government. No one wants to be part of a losing team, and a wider MS loss than Fonseka 2010 puts UNP MPs in a very weak position in April with the general elections are held. It would not be surprising if they lose 1/3rd of their seats.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:43 pm
Lorenzo,
Kim Jong Un holds no elections. He can’t blame his public.
If the president wins landslide , as the public approves his way of administration, he will definitely go berserk with all the powers rested on him. He will do everything to get our of War Crimes, including sending few military leaders to eclectic chair.
Two days ago there was SATANA ( sirasa). Ex-Gen Fonseka came. No one form the government came despite invitation.
The government is scared to sit with these people and argue out. Because they loose big time.
Fonseka said only contribution from the President from him as “Liberate Mavil Aru”. Everything else was planned by the Army. He asked how on this earth the President is responsible for War Crimes. He said if there is War crimes investigation whoever gave command to do actual war crimes (will only be punished. He said President is using this excuse to win votes and keep on robbing the country.
He also said, starting for Mavil Aru army liberated area by area case by case basis. President was only giving OK. As more and more areas were won the president became confident.
There will be hundreds of thousands of PROTEST votes going to My3. One can’t stop that.
majority of people do not vote for parties nowadays. This is a thing in the past.
Independent predictor will have to base of public responses and adjust the predictions as the time closes on. He will never say JAYAWEVA, as he is not bribed by anyone.
December 8th, 2014 at 7:58 pm
We must let GOMIN have little fun. A great patriot, always recognizes what MR family has done up to now. Last summer he won a case for the government. Who coined the phrase MY3 has to be recognized. Does any one want to know why MY3’s brother named every business ARALIYAGHA (Temple Tree)? I think he amazed him self in an imaginary world that his brother will be the next president of SL.