58% of Sinhalese Voted for Mahinda, Down from 68% in 2010 and 61% in 2005
Posted on February 16th, 2015

Dilrook Kannangara

Based on my own calculations based on regression analysis, Mahinda received 58% of Sinhala votes confirming media reports to the effect. However, what those media reports fail to say is Mahinda received 68% of Sinhala votes in 2010 and 61% of Sinhala votes in 2005. It is clear that falling below the 60% threshold leads to defeat for Mahinda. In other words, Sinhala support for Mahinda in 2015 was less than in 2005.

On the other hand, minority support for Mahinda was just 8% in 2005 despite his win. This is not affected by the low voters’ turnout as it affected both candidates. It peaked in 2010 to 16% and fell to 13% in 2015.

As can be seen, the driving force behind Mahinda’s win or loss is the Sinhala vote. Had he managed to get his 2005 percentage of 61% from Sinhala voters, he would have won the election despite losing the minority vote. This understanding has immense repercussions on charting the future course of the party he represent. If the SLFP, UPFA or whatever party that aligns itself to the policies Mahinda stood for, it must primarily champion Sinhala interests to be successful at elections.

Mahinda’s (or the party said to stand by his principles) comeback strategy must be to demand the repeal of 13A which appeals to the Sinhala voters. All other ancillary issues can be tied to it. For instance, a large amount of corruption can be attributed to provincial councils which have an annual allocation close to $1 billion of which at least 7% goes for useless administrative functions. All provincial council work can be handled by the central government with lower cost to the people. PCs also breed nepotism. Most provincial councillors are the kith of kin of national politicians. Political violence, unscrupulous acts by politicians and corruption can be traced back to present or former provincial councillors. Most nefarious politicians today have a background in provincial councils. In addition, provincial councils have made it easy for separatists to push for their incremental Elam demands. By removing 13A, all these evils can be eliminated.

This approach will lose the minority support but at 13%, there is nothing much to lose anyway. In fact this small chunk of minority support comes not from devolution supporters but from sections of the Tamil and Muslim minorities that don’t benefit from devolution. EPDP voters in the north, marginalised Tamils from the east and poorer sections of Muslims vote for the SLFP whether it supports devolution or not. Besides General Elections severely polarise minorities into voting for exclusive political parties like TNA, SLMC and CWC. Therefore, there is absolutely nothing the Mahinda camp loses by abrogating 13A.

Without presenting a genuine prospectus for the voters to vote for the party like abrogation of 13A, it is foolhardy to hope for votes. The fragmented electorate needs a rallying call to support one party (particularly the one that lost) against many others vying for votes. Will the Mahinda camp do justice to the 58% of Sinhala voters who placed their trust in it?

People have come a long way since the days of the war. They have different challenges today. Addressing new challenges faced by the people determines the win or loss.

15 Responses to “58% of Sinhalese Voted for Mahinda, Down from 68% in 2010 and 61% in 2005”

  1. Senevirath Says:

    yes the most important thing for mahinda to do is abrogating 13 a.do not depend on muslims and tamils

  2. Indrajith Says:

    එළැඹෙන මැතිවරණයෙන් මහින්ද රාජපක්‍ෂ මහතා අගමැති කරවීම සඳහා අනිද්දා නුගේගොඩදී පැවැත්වෙන රැළියට සහභාගී වීම සඳහා තමන් කැමති නමුත් ශ‍්‍රීලනිප මධ්‍යම කාරක සභාවෙන් එය වලකා ඇතැයි පාර්ලිමේන්තු මන්ත‍්‍රී බන්දුල ගුණවර්ධන මහතා කියයි.

    කොළඹදී මාධ්‍ය අමතමින් ඔහු කියා සිටියේ එම රැළියට 5000ක් ගෙනාවොත් ඉල්ලා අස්වන බවට ප‍්‍රකාශ කර ඇති අසාද් සාලි තම සමුගැනීම එදිනට තහවුරු කරන ලෙසයි.

    එළැමෙණ මැතිවරණයෙන් එජාපයට ජය ගැනීමට ඉඩ නොදෙන බවද කී ඔහු ඉතිහාසයේ ජාතික වීරයෙක් වන මහින්ද රාජපක්ෂ මහතාට එරෙහිව දේශීය හා ජාත්‍යන්තරව විවිධ බලවේග විසින් විශාල ප්‍රහාරයක් එල්ල කරන බවත්, ඔහු යළි බලයට ගෙන ඒම සඳහා කැපවන බවද කීය.

  3. Ananda-USA Says:

    Yamapalana Sudiya!

    Lankawata Harima Deyak Siduwuna,
    Seemawak Nathuwa Pathuruna.
    Raja Wennata Sithapu Landa,
    Sudiya Nisa Moda Wuna,
    Biwwa Neda Yahapalanaya?

    Biwwa Neda Yahapalanaya?
    Gilla Neda Yahapalanaya?
    Aney Magey Sirisena Paney,
    Kiyannako Attha Aney,
    Apita Pewwa Neda Yamapalanaya?
    Apita Pewwa Neda Yamapalanayaaa ….?

  4. Ananda-USA Says:

    Geeth,

    I will GLADLY join you in REQUESTING MR to come forward to LEAD the SLFP & CONTEST the General Elections on a PLATFORM of REPEALING the 13th Amendment TOTALLY, DISSOLVING the Provincial Councils, and replacing them with a DISTRICT SYSTEM of Governance administered by GOSL APPOINTED Government Agents.

    But, I have CAUTION YOU in joining hands with Ado Yakko “FFacebook” Lorenzo and his SERVILE LAPDOG Ado Yakko Dependent, or accepting Any help THEY OFFER! They are FAR WORSE than GREEKS BEARING GIFTS to the TROJANS …. you will end up WITH MUD ON YOUR FACE … BETRAYED and DRIVEN OVER THE CLIFF!

    Ado Yakko “Facebook” Lorenzo FALSELY CLAIMS that I, Ananda-USA, KNOWS he has CONNECTIONS to GR. He, the man of UNLIMITED EGO & CHUTZPAH that he is, CLAIMS he KNOWS GR, but I have NO PROOF or EVIDENCE OF IT! I VERY MUCH DOUBT it! Perhaps he was IMPRISONED by GR for Anti-National Activities!

    Please Don’t Buy Into his Siren Songs … his DEVIOUS MACHIAVELLIAN STRATEGIES to DRIVE the PATRIOTS over ANOTHER CLIFF in the upcoming General Election!

  5. Ananda-USA Says:

    Maintaining UNSUSTAINABLE short-term CONSUMPTION SPENDING while GUTTING long-tern INVESTMENTS in National INFRASTRUCTURE & DEVELOPMENT will HALT Sri Lanka’s ECONOMIC GROWTH. It will transform our Motherland into a Nation of Do-Nothing, Make-Nothing, Lotus Eaters!

    Aiyooooo Sirisenaaaa …. What are YOU DOING to our Motherland?

    …………….
    Budget reflects ideological clashes within government

    By Chandeepa Wettasinghe
    DailyMirror.lk

    Top economists in the country slammed the new regime’s interim budget for political indecisiveness and failing to rectify past economic missteps, during a post-budget seminar organized by the Sri Lanka Economic Association (SLEA) and the University of Colombo recently.

    “Does this reveal the political agenda of the new government? No,” University of Peradeniya Senior Lecturer Dr. Sumanasiri Liyanage said curtly.The interim budget is widely considered a welfare-oriented fulfillment of election promises, despite the traditionally open market oriented United National Party, comprising majority of the coalition government.

    However, some may come up with an argument saying that the UNP has matured politically, attempting to create a political economy suitable for Sri Lanka.

    Recently, Policy Planning and Economic Affairs Deputy Minister Dr. Harsha de Silva said that the new regime is following the German social market economy model, combining markets with minimum government regulation while enhancing social insurance.However, Former Central Bank Director and academic Prof. S. S. Colombage and University of Colombo Senior Lecturer Prof. Sirimal Abeyratne agreed with Dr. Liyanage.

    However, cracks were shown within the UNP itself, as Dr. de Silva had subtly expressed certain reservations to certain policies enacted by Finance Minister Ravi Karunanayake through the budget.Meanwhile, the economists were also highly critical of the new policies threatening the country’s macroeconomic factors.

    “The government is mixing up multiple objectives. They shouldn’t endanger the long term budget for short term gain,” Prof. Abeyratne said.
    While SLEA President Prof. A.D.V. de S. Indraratne held to the belief that the interim budget was better than the November 2014 budget, all other panelists said that both of them were extremely bad; sacrificing long term growth for short term political capital.Karunanayake had previously stated that the interim budget would have far reaching ramifications, to be felt for years to come. However, it is doubtful whether he was referring to such negative impacts.

    Dr. Liyanage stressed that the policies were unsustainable, and that the country would face austerity following the 100-day programme.Prof. Colombage quoted Singapore’s Former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew.“Sri Lankan budgets are an auction of non-existing resources.”

    They were especially displeased with the selective intervention tactics of the regime in providing relief to the lower spectrum while taxing the super rich.
    “Targeting to bring down commodities is selective. And the super gain tax is bad too; we have a legal framework which should have been used,” Prof. Abeyratne noted.He added that this severely harms investments and business, specially from foreign sources, and further added that actions which seem politically correct today may not be so when their ramifications are felt.

    Meanwhile Prof. Indraratne expressed worry over the spending reduction on public investment.“I was perturbed. We have to take this into serious consideration, because public investment is one of the determinants of growth,” he said.Karunanayake had previously stated that the reduction in investment monetarily does not reflect a reduction in infrastructure development physically, as the spending reduction is offset by eliminating corruption.

    The economists expressed worry over the recurrent expenditure overwhelming government revenue, and that this budget had managed to reduce the budget deficit only through the reduction of public spending and the one off-taxes which the regime promised would not be repeated.

    This would mean that such expenditure would have to be financed by further borrowings once the one-off revenues are exhausted.Prof. Indraratne said he had hoped for a fall in public debt during the interim budget, but hoped it would happen during the next one.As a solution, Dr. Liyanage said that tax reforms should have been enacted, increasing income tax.“Over 80 percent of our taxes are indirect. It is necessary to increase direct taxes. And there is no correlation between increasing direct taxes and the reduction of growth,” he said.

    This conforms to the views previously expressed by Central Bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran, who said that reducing the over 20 different tax schemes, most of which are waived through subsidies, to a simple few could increase transparency and increase tax collection by two to threefold.

  6. Ananda-USA Says:

    Very interesting,

    The Website www DOT MahindaRajapaksa DOT lk listed on MR’s LETTER of REBUTTAL to the Allegations against him by the Yahapalanaya GOSL members CANNOT BE REACHED! It displays a BLANK PAGE!

    MORE Dirty Tricks by the Yamapalanaya Democrats?

  7. Christie Says:

    Namaste: Thank you Dilrook for the work you have done in analyzing the voting patterns for us. This is what Indian interest did and succeeded. In 2005 India backed Mahinda. In 2010 it brought in Sarath Fonseka and lost . India has been directly involved with politics in the island since 1951 when it got hold of SWRD and financed him and made the policies for the SLFP even the name SLFP. In 2015 India got Chandrika the long time coolie of India to the job. My understanding is the more than 90% or the minority of voters voted for Chandrika’s coolie as Indian interests dictated. Jai Hind.

  8. Geeth Says:

    Dear Ananda,

    Ananda,
    I glad you say that “I will GLADLY join you in REQUESTING MR to come forward to LEAD the SLFP & CONTEST the General Elections on a PLATFORM of REPEALING the 13th Amendment TOTALLY, DISSOLVING the Provincial Councils, and replacing them with a DISTRICT SYSTEM of Governance administered by GOSL APPOINTED Government Agents.”

    But what I think is MR doesn’t have to wait for SLFP ticket. If SLFP sidelines him, then he can start a new political force. He needs to have that courage.

    Independent and Lorenzo,
    The following is my reply for your question asking whether I want to meet MR.
    First of all I must make it clear that what I suggested is not a bedtime story or some misplaced idea coming out of political wonderland. It is not at all a brain fart. Please don’t reduce it to a level where I personally can bring a magical result in which all of a sudden I can enlighten MR of something that MR doesn’t know. MR knows this, but however he may not know that there is a huge force to support him if he can take the leadership of it.

    Let me explain it like this. There is a huge political aspiration of the nation but politicians go around it pretending there is nothing existing like that. The nation’s main political demand has been put into the bottom of the ‘Pettagama.” What I suggest is to bring it to the surface and fight for it. For which there is no need to have a dialogue between me and MR. Instead, what MR has to do is to begin the process. Once he breaks the ice, everyone will rally around him including me and all in this forum.

    Under this condition my personal meeting him doesn’t make any sense either. I actually kind of stunned to see your suggestion. Because this is not a personal thing, this is a national thing and a serious political affair. Having said that, let me suggest something else.

    I think you can do something for the entire nation including me.

    If you have direct contact with him, send a very personal message saying that there is a big force of professionals and highly educated people, some are useful strategists ready to work for him if he is ready to give leadership to a political force that which have a clear political vision and a mission for the nation. These people are honest unspoiled people who have only one intention, just to serve the nation. If he agrees, make arrangements to have a conference of all parties, I mean all individuals, not only me, but all who like to join hands to work under one single political aim.

    This political contract will never end until we achieve all our political goals. That means it never ends just at the victory of MR. Actually winning the election will be only the initial condition or the hurdle. The real part begins afterwards. It will be a national force; I will definitely be a part of it and work hard to save our country. Can we come to a deal folks???

  9. Ananda-USA Says:

    Geeth,

    Asking “Facebook” Lorenzo, and the Terminally Dependent (on Lorenzo) One, to help you get access to MR (and GR) is like asking the late unlamented Velupillai Prabhakaran to get you an audience with the ALSO late and unlamented Rajiv Gandhi! If you do this, PLEASE LET ME KNOW, because I have a SUSPENSION BRIDGE across the Verazzano Narrows in New York that I would like to SELL to you; it is GOING DIRT CHEAP … Cents on the Dollar!

    Come on …. be REALISTIC!

    FACT 1. “Facebook” Lorenzo and his team of AVATARS and LAPDOGS did ALL THEY COULD here at LankaWeb (and elsewhere) to HELP OUST President Mahinda Rajapaksa!

    FACT 2. Today, MR has been OUSTED from the Presidency, is being Insulted, Harrassed and Threatened with Prosecution, while the current GOSL is using the THREAT of COLLABORATION with Foreign Powers to HAUL MR in front of the ICC under War Crimes Charges to PREVENT HIM from Re-entering Politics. That applies to our GREAT WAR HERO Gotabhaya Rajapaksa and ALL of the Patriotic Rana Viruwos who fought to Liberate and Reunify our Motherland at GREAT COST in Blood & Treasure, and Great Personal Risk to Themselves and their Families.

    Furthermore, while MR is subject to threats at his HOME, his Band of Brothers have been DRIVEN into EXILE by the POTENTIAL THREATS levelled against them by those VERY PEOPLE “Facebook” Lorenzo and his TEAM vociferously campaigned for.

    GIVEN THESE TWO SETS OF INCONTROVERTIBLE FACTS, do you think that the Rajapaksa Family is going to LOOK KINDLY upon, and TRUST, “Facebook” Lorenzo and his TEAM of PAID Virtual and Real AGITATORS to even LISTEN TO THEM, much less TALK to them, and grant you a HEARING?

    Good GOD, you HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING, Right?

    If I were MR, I would KICK these HYPOCRITICAL EELAMIST REPROBATES all the way from MAGAMPURA to COLOMBO right into the OCEAN at Galle Face!

  10. Geeth Says:

    Ananda,
    If you read my post in full, you wouldn’t ask that question from me. I do not need a private hearing/audience from MR. I did not ask them to arrange a meeting either. I even do not think that a meeting is necessary thing at all. They said they know MR and they can arrange a meeting.

    But I have explained that if they have such a personal connection, then they can meet MR and tell that there are lot of professionals and educated people to work on a specific political agenda if MR is ready to lead them. Don’t think that I do not think that if they have such a close relationship/friendship with MR, why the hell on this earth they really work hard to destroy his friend? And after destroying, how can the go back to meet him?

    But on the other hand, don’t forget MR also made so many political blunders and many were upset about them. And also don’t think that people have no right to be upset about their political leaders as well. Blindly worshiping politician actually have brought harmful consequences to the nation Ananda. We always must keep the status-quo in healthy distance. We must learn to respect not the politician, but the political act. MR won the war. So people respected. Then all of a sudden people started saying that Rajapaksas stealing the national wealth. That might be a propaganda. But they had ample time and resources to counter them. Why didn’t they do it? Whose fault is it? Why MR kept a well known thief in his ministry as permanent secretary? If I were him I wouldn’t do it. Would you do it Ananda?

    But we are ready to forgive and forget Ananda. That is the difference between the Buddhist upbringing and other upbringings. Precisely what I wish to see MR doing at this point is for him to become a selfless statesman and to lead the nation to achieve what exactly he had neglected while sitting on this fat 2/3rd majority in the parliament for many years. He neglected to take most important political decision because he thought process was no different to that of another politico.

    If he can shed his old toga of the “typical politician,” and then come back reborn as the leader of the nation to lead the nation to freedom, then of course I also will bow my head before him. In order to do this, I do not need a meeting. Period!

  11. Ananda-USA Says:

    Geeth,

    You are now saying some same things that Lorenzo and his crew said trying to TURN people against MR.

    Also, regarding readiness to forgive and forget, YOU DO IT if you want, I have heard it all before! I will not do it, for I have cried 3 decades in the wilderness advocating a military solution, while our politicians tried foolishly to negotiate with unreasonable machiavellian killers, without success.

    Buddhism is an IDEAL that we cannot always adhere to in REAL LIFE if we are to SURVIVE as a people. To be Buddhists we must FIRST SURVIVE. As Buddhists, we have a RESPONSIBILITY to PROTECT our people. Over two millenia ago, SaddhaTissa joined his brother Gamunu with thousands of Buddhist clergy to liberate our nation, even though they were Buddhists, because it was NECESSARY and the RESPONSIBILITY was theirs.

    The reality is that we cannot remain PASSIVE Buddhists counseling “Maithri” if we are survive. Buddhists are not unique in that regard. Christians, the followers of Jesus Christ who counseled LOVE for others, often go to war to protect their people from diabolically evil people such as the Nazis, just as we did.

    Today, we are being confronted by the same people who supported the killing of 150,000 of our people, and nearly destroyed our Motherland. We have to resist these moves, NEVER FORGETTING or FORGIVING who placed our people in JEOPARDY, remembering that 30 years of FAILURE to CONFRONT them in a TIMELY way, heeding “good Buddhists” counseling compassion for the undeserving, brought our nation to its knees.

    OK, you go ahead and play FOOTSY with KNOWN DEVILS; I will not counsel you further. But know this: I will watch and I will act if and when remedial action is warranted.

  12. Ananda-USA Says:

    Geeth,

    Let us examine your comment to “Facebook” Lorenzo in GREATER DETAIL:

    “If you have direct contact with him send a very personal message …”

    ” It will be a national force; I will definitely be a part of it and work hard to save our country. Can we come to a deal folks???”

    Therefore:

    1. You want this PROVEN EELAMIST TRAITOR “Facebook” Lorenzo who danced the JIG here at LankaWeb UNDERMINING MR to carry your “messages” to MR, and

    2. You want to strike a “deal” including “Facebook” Lorenzo to “work hard to save our country”?

    CLEARLY, you have not been monitoring what has transpired here at LankaWeb in the last few months, have you, or you are incapable of COMPREHENDING what these REPROBATES have been doing!

    OMG, some people NEVER LEARN!

  13. Christie Says:

    Namaste: We the majority the Sinhalese fighting among our selves. The Indian imperialists are winning all the way. Jai Hind.

  14. SA Kumar Says:

    We the majority the Sinhalese fighting among our selves. The Indian imperialists are winning all the way.-agreed
    Indian flag are flying NPC (Saiva TE) at mini Indian embassy not Lion or Our Koddiya Flag

    soon Indian law applicable to NPC not Lankan law as Northern Ireland UK law applicable not Rep of Ireland Law!!!

  15. Geeth Says:

    Dear Ananda,
    I can see that you are an honest person, and may be too emotional to discuss politics.

    You are correct. I did not follow Lanka web for last few months. Do you know the reason why? Because I was tired and very upset to see the way my government, I stress ‘my government’ was playing into the hands of the enemies of the nation. It seemed the leadership was not listening to any voice that elected him.

    Do I have the right to be upset? From your point of view I don’t. But from my point of view, not only I have the right, but also I have the right to choose a different leadership I deem would perform better. But I didn’t go that far. Because I knew when I compare MR with others, I didn’t have other alternatives; none would do better. So naturally I kept away.

    But when I realized that MR was loosing, I was even more upset knowing what is coming next. That is why I said in one of my earlier postings, that MR doesn’t have the right to drag the nation to these depths. He has the right to go in a self-destructive path if his fate has nothing to do with the fate of the nation. But if he had any idea how far nation’s future had been tied to his fate, he wouldn’t do many things that he did for last few years. In other words, he didn’t realize that he was the symbolic bund and the floodgate in post war SL.

    However, when it comes to Lorenzo, I know him only from Lanka Web. I know he was an ardent supporter of MR administration until about a year ago. When MR administration was doing so many politically irresponsible stupid things, I have seen Lorenzo was critiquing them. That’s all I know about him. I don’t know if he is an elamist. To my experience, I have never seen an elamist supporting MR like Lorenzo until he turned against MR. I don’t know how you came to that conclusion either. Please educate me about it.

    Ananda, trustworthiness in politics is like husband and wife affair; the political trust is determined by political contract between ruler and the ruled. That’s why we have election manifestos instead of photographs of politicians. When the ruled break the contract, he/she goes to jail or to gallows. In democracies, when the rulers break the contract, he/she goes home. Who sends the ruler home? The ruled sends.

    In the case of SL, the stakes were so high therefore sending the ruler was not that easy because there was no other ruler better than MR to have a contract because all others were charlatans and thieves. On top of that they were agents of foreign enemies of the nation.

    Under this condition I understand where you come from. You wanted everybody to think about all these stakes before they jump into anti MR bandwagon. But Ananda, as I said, making mistakes is a fundamental human quality.

    If a couple can get divorced when they break their contract, why the concept of divorce shouldn’t be there in politics Ananda? I look into Lorenzo’s case like that. I think he strictly wanted the divorce when the contract seemed broken. You are an emotional lover would live with your partner under any condition. I am a practical man. I want to take everything into account even though I realize that the contract has been broken and weigh everything and come to a compromise for the better. We are three different people Ananda. But I think can work together for a better future for our motherland.

    First of all Ananda, please don’t go too far. It is just a friendly request. You are an educated professional living in the USA. If you are living in NY, think that I can meet you in person within few hours. May be we must sit down and talk some day.

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