Next General Election
Posted on June 20th, 2015

Orpheus Perera

Rajitha Senaratne, as a spokesperson for government (or UNP?), made the following statement at the press conference:

The six-member committee has also discussed this matter with the President last evening. President Maithripala Sirisena will never field Rajapaksa as the prime ministerial candidate. There will be no chance for him to enter parliament through the National List as well.”

He also said in Sinhala: President Sirisena  innay ai Stawaraye.” It sounds like President Sirisena is no longer the humble guy. But many times in the past he has said Mahinda Rajapakse was like a dictator –   never listening to others at the party meetings and making his own decisions. Whom is Sirisena listening to now? He is telling the party members that there is no way for Mahinda to come to the parliament through the party. It is obvious that the decision he has taken (as explained by Rajitha) is the instructions given to him by Ranil Wickramasinge.

It is obvious from the amount of people gathering around Mahinda that there is massive support for him, and a big demand from SLFP supporters and voters that Mahinda continue to represent them.

Ranil Wikramasinhe and his allies have done their homework, and Mahinda Rajapakse and UPFA members have not done theirs. If you do not do your homework and assignments, you are bound to fail the exam.

Before the Presidential election, Ranil, together with his western allies, did their homework and acted upon their findings. They knew that with the new freedom of vote for Jaffna and the North Easterners, that they would not favor Mahinda Rajapakse or SLFP. Although Maithripala Sirisena was an SLFP, he was fully backed by UNP. In any case, many new voters in the new areas show SLFP as their enemy. Muslim minority MP’s who formed UPAF were a weak link, and they also did their homework. In any case, the majority of them were UNP supporters. Although there were huge gatherings at Mahinda’s election meetings, they knew Mahinda had less chance of winning, especially because it was his third attempt. TNA felt that they could get something that LTTE could not get from JRJ, CBK or MR. At the same time Astrologer encouraged Mahinda to go for an election two years early, before building up the bridge with the Tamil population in the North (some believe that Ranil has manipulated the Astrologer). In the South, Sirisena got all the hardcore UNP votes. The West and India wanted to stop China from using Colombo for their trading with Africa, and thereby becoming the power of the Indian Ocean. They also saw Mahinda as their enemy.

That was history. Now for the next Parliamentary election. There are only two options to  keeping Ranil out. The first way being President Sirisena’s respect of the opinion of the majority party members, and allowing Mahinda to come back to the parliament by winning his seat under SLFP flag or by appointment. The second possibility is for Mahinda  contest as an independent candidate from Hambanthota area, but support  all other  UPFA candidates, attending  their meetings(except people like Rajitha). There is no other way other than the above two possibilities. Alternately, (if there is any possibility) remove Sirisena  from SLFP leadership, with enough time left for the election.

What we can see from the current random opinions of voters is that many SLFP voters will not vote anybody other than Mahinda. If Mahinda forms a new party and contest, he will be splitting the SLFP votes. Sirisena will not give a damn about it. In fact, he will be happy, without any question he can keep his promise to Ranil and keep him as the Prime minister. Even if Ranil is removed by a no-confidence vote, that will only be temporary because they all have to go for an election soon.

9 Responses to “Next General Election”

  1. NeelaMahaYoda Says:

    රාජිතගේ ප‍්‍රකාශය ගැන මා දන්නෙවත් නෑ – ජනපති
    එළැඹෙන මැතිවණයේදී ශ‍්‍රිලනිප ජයග‍්‍රහණය වෙනුවෙන් මෛත‍්‍රී-මහින්ද සමගි කරවවී සදහා පත් කරන ලද කමිටුව ඊයේ පස්වරැවේ ජනාධිපති මෛත‍්‍රිපාල සිරිසේන මහතා හවු වූ බවත් එහිදී ඉදිරි මැතිවරනයට මුහුණදීම ගැන දිගු වේලාවක් සාකච්ජා වූ බවත් ශ‍්‍රීලනිප මාධ්‍ය ප‍්‍රකාශක සහ කමිටුවේ සාමාජික ඩිලාන් පෙරේරා මහතා පවසයි.

    සාර්ථකව පැවති මෙම සාකච්චාව ගැන හිටපු ජනාධිපති මහින්ද රාජපක්ෂ මහතා සමග ඉදිරි දින කිහිපයේදී සාක්ච්ජා කරන බවත් එහි ප‍්‍රථිපල ජනාධිපතිවරයා නැවත හමුවී දැනුම්දෙන බවත් ඩිලාන් පෙරේරා මහතා පවසයි.

    රාජිත සේනාරත්න ඇමතිවරයා විසින් එළැඹෙන මැතිවණයේදී හිටපු ජනාධිපති මහින්ද රාජපක්ෂ මහතාට නාම යෝජනා නොදෙන්නේ යයි ජනාධිපතිවරයා කී බවට කල ප‍්‍රකාශය තමාගේ අනුදැනුම මත කළ ප‍්‍රකාශයක් නොවන බව ජනාධිපතිවරයා කමිටුව හමුවේ කියා සිටි බවද ඩිලාන් පෙරේරා මහතා කීය.

  2. NeelaMahaYoda Says:

    මහින්දට අගමැති අපේක්‍ෂකකම දුන්නොත් මං දේශපාලනයෙන් සමුගන්නවා.. – රාජිත
    එන මැතිවරණයේදී හිටපු ජනාධිපති මහින්ද රාජපක්‍ෂ මහතාට ශ‍්‍රිලනිපයෙන් අගමැති අපේක්‍ෂකත්වය ලබා දුනහොත් තමන් දේශපාලනයෙන් සමුගන්නා බව ඇමති රාජිත සේනාරත්න මහතා පවසා තිබේ.

    ඔහු මෙසේ පවසා ඇත්තේ මහින්ද-මෛත‍්‍රී සමගිය ඇතිකිරීමට සඳහා උත්සාහ කරන පිරිසේ මන්ත‍්‍රීවරුන් සමගයි.

    ‘ගිය ඡුන්දෙදි රාජපක්‍ෂලාගෙම්වලට විරුද්දව කතා කරලයි අපි මෙතනට ආවෙ. මෛත‍්‍රී එක්ක ස්ටේජ් නැගලා කිවුවෙ රාජපක්‍ෂ පන්නනවා කියලයි. එහෙවු අපිට මහින්ද-මෛත‍්‍රී එකතු කරන තැන්වල රෙද්දක් ඇඳන් ඉන්න පුළුවන්ද. රාජපක්‍ෂ අගමැති කරන්න කිවයල රෙද්දක් ඇඳන් කියන්න පුළුවනිද. එහෙම කරන්ව ආවොත් මම දේහපාලනෙයන් විශ‍්‍රාම යනවා’ යයිද ඇමතිවරයා දැඩි කලකිරීමෙන් පවසා ඇතැයි දැනගන්නට ඇත.

  3. ranjit Says:

    No one in this country want’s Rajitha or Sirisena but only Mahinda the man who freed us from hell. Rajitha is a frog who jumps from place to place and Sira was a traitor to his party and to his former Boss. Choura is a another one in that gang of Mahinda haters. If NO Mahinda millions will not vote in the next General election including me and my family of five votes. I will never give my valuable vote to traitors like Ranil.I can remember everything what he,JR,Premadasa did to my country during their tenure in office. We suffered a lot and we were living in fear and death. No one of them guaranteed our lives as leaders. India and Tamils never supported the Sinhalese in fact they killed our Sinhala soldiers. They are my enemies whether good or bad,to me they are all same. They were ungrateful to my hero MR after all what he did to them specially freedom of life,freedom of speech,freedom to walk in any part of the island freedom of education,worship etc. We Sinhalese cooked millions of meals and built houses for the needy and arranged visits to both sides to understand each other to live in peace and harmony but they rejected the most popular leader of all time by voting against him in the last election by the advise of LTTE terrorists,Indian Parasites and the American Imperialists. I will not pity them if another bomb explode in the future.

    All these traitors afraid of Mahinda coming back and they utter words like crazy idiots. They know that they will not have a chance in the next election but Mahinda is a sure jockey to win from any party or symbol. Nobody can compare Mahinda to any politician living today in this country. Never. They are all weak and traitors to my Motherland. No vision,No Plan,No Brains for any of the politicians in the UNP Jarapalanaya today. Their end is near. We keep on praying for that to happen.

  4. NAK Says:

    Sirisena is just a fly caught up in a web spun by by the west and India.Now he knows the fix he is in and says one thing to one party and completly the opposit to the other.
    He has realised that he runs the risk of being ousted from the SLFP and the UPFA if he continues on the path of doing what Ranil and Chandrika wants and he pretends that he is with the SLFP and wants SLFP to win but bull headedly refuses to do the only thing he has to do for the SLFP to win.
    What he really doing is Drag the SLFPer’s who are for Mahinda behind him for as long as possible and drop them so that the SLFP will split and the UNP will come back to power and he will blame Mahinda for the split.
    In a way it is good to let him think that he is fooling all for the time being.

  5. Metteyya_Brahmana Says:

    Orpheus wrote:

    “If Mahinda forms a new party and contest, he will be splitting the SLFP votes. Sirisena will not give a damn about it. In fact, he will be happy, without any question he can keep his promise to Ranil and keep him as the Prime minister. Even if Ranil is removed by a no-confidence vote, that will only be temporary because they all have to go for an election soon.”

    There are two problems with this analysis: (1) the ‘split’ in the vote may be as high as 90/10 in favor of Mahinda, so he should not care about the few stragglers who might as well be UNP MPs. In fact, he should aggressively go after these stragglers seats, especially the ones who are in districts he carried on January 8th; and (2) I don’t know how ‘temporary’ keeping Ranil out of the Prime Minister’s seat will be with a no confidence vote. The UNP may actually field someone else as the Prime Minister candidate given how unpopular Ranil is with the voters. Also, it really is doubtful that Ranil could muster a majority in Parliament after the new elections, even with the ‘SLFP’ stragglers who stayed with Maithripala.

    I don’t know much about the SLFP by-laws, but it seems clear cut that if the presidential candidate contested from a different party – and Maithripala did – then he cannot be the leader of the SLFP party even if he ‘retains’ his party membership. Contesting from another party should be ip so facto evidence of abandoning party membership. I would at least put this issue to a vote from the SLFP members, not the central committee, and boot Maithripala out as the SLFP leader. The majority in ANY political party get to decide who their leaders are, and I do not see how the SLFP is an exception.

  6. Metteyya_Brahmana Says:

    One thing is for sure, Mahinda needs to move NOW in contesting from the People’s Alliance and put maximum pressure on the SLFP MPs who do not join him, especially those whose districts he carried on January 8th. He should also go after any MP from a district that is not naturally UNP, as Maithripala’s popularity has dropped considerably and most of his voters are up for grabs because they did not expect him to just hand over the power of the government to Ranil and the UNP.

  7. Independent Says:

    Ranil is doing business with MR. These two are good friends and help each other. MR is safe under Runil.
    More votes his breakaway party wins better becomes Runil’s chance of becoming PM.
    By not allowing a new better leadership with strong Sinhala Buddhist background, SLFP will votes will reduce and split with MR’s new party.

  8. Metteyya_Brahmana Says:

    Independent,

    Everyone keeps assuming that there is a 50/50 split in the SLFP when it is more like a 90/10 split in favor of Mahinda. The 100+ MPs supporting the no-confidence motion against Ranil is evidence of this fact, as only the Maithripala MPs are not in favor of this motion. The split is even more pronounced in Mahinda’s favor when you start looking at actual voters. Mahinda’s voters are NOT party oriented and simply want HIM to lead the country. UNP voters are party oriented, but they are only about 20% of the electorate (45 seats divided by 225).

    Maithripala only won by a 400,000 vote margin and at least 3/4th of these voters are now angry at Maithripala for simply handing the executive function of the government to Ranil and the UNP by letting Ranil control all of the cabinet appointments. They would have never voted for Maithripala had this “transfer power of president to Ranil” had been disclosed to them before the January 8th vote, so Maithripala is working with only 5% of the electorate right now as his support base. 5% (Maithripala) + 20% (UNP) + 20% (minorities) does NOT equal a majority. Mahinda can therefore win this outright with 55% of the vote if he aggressively goes after the Maithripala MPs who are in districts that Mahinda carried in January.

  9. Independent Says:

    MB,

    “Everyone keeps assuming that there is a 50/50 split in the SLFP when it is more like a 90/10 split in favor of Mahinda. ”

    No I am not assuming 50:50. But it may be 40:60 against MR. Remember I am not talking about parliamentarians and hooligan politikko’s of Pallath Sabha and local government thug politikkos. I am talking about vote base. You can believe in what you think. But I can only say wait and see.
    I judged correctly in the previous election.

    Anyway it is shame that the opportunity to form a good government is lost because of these politikkos, rather than finding a better leader solely interested in protecting their asses.

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