GENERAL ELECTION OF SRI LANKA – FORECAST FOR AUGUST 2015- LATE SURGE FOR UPFA!
Posted on August 15th, 2015

By M D P DISSANAYAKE

The following forecast had been calculated based on a quantitative analysis, trends and historical reasoning.    Three traditional methods of forecasting, viz. Best Case Scenario, Worst Case Scenario and the Most Likely Case Scenario  were  used for each district.

Some of the punitive actions  taken by President Sirisena during last few days against  his own party candidate  Mr Mahinda Rajapakse  has  swung the voter sensitiveness in favour of MR to an unbeatable position.  These actions have further energised the Pro MR vote bank and an increase in voter turnout is expected at polling booths.

The Worst Case Scenario for UPFA will be 96 seats as against 85 seats for the UNP and JVP/DP, with the Best Case Scenario projecting 135 for UPFA and 49 for the UNP and JVP/DP.   The Most Likely outcome is projected as 127 for UPFA and 55.  In all three scenarios, the UPFA will be the winner with the largest number of seats.

2015 GENERAL ELECTION FORECAST – SRI LANKA
WORST CASE SCENARiO
UPFA UNP/JVP TNA
CENTRAL PROVINCE:
KANDY 5 7
MATALE 3 2
NUWARAELIYA 2 5
EASTERN PROV.
BATTICALOA 0 5
DIGAMADULLA 2 5
TRINCOMALEE 1 3
NORTHERN PROV.
JAFFNA 0 9
WANNI 0 6
SOUTHERN PROV
GALLE 6 4
MATARA 5 3
HAMBANTHOTA 5 2
WESTERN PROV.
COLOMBO 8 11
GAMPAHA 11 7
KALUTARA 6 4
NTH WEST. PROV
KURUNEGALA 10 5
PUTTALAM 4 4
NTH CENTRAL PROV
ANURADHAPURA 5 4
POLONNARUWA 3 2
UVA PROV.
BADULLA 4 4
MONERAGAL 3 2
SABARAGAMUWA
RATNAPURA 7 3
KEGALLE 6 3
TOTAL TO BE ELECTED 96 85 15 196
NATIONAL LIST 14 13 2 29
GRAND TOTAL 110 100 15 225

 

BEST CASE SCENARIO
UPFA UNP/JVP TNA
CENTRAL PROVINCE:
KANDY 8 4
MATALE 3 2
NUWARAELIYA 4 3
EASTERN PROV.
BATTICALOA 1 4
DIGAMADULLA 3 4
TRINCOMALEE 2 2
NORTHERN PROV.
JAFFNA 0 1 8
WANNI 1 1 4
SOUTHERN PROV
GALLE 8 2
MATARA 7 1
HAMBANTHOTA 6 1
WESTERN PROV.
COLOMBO 13 6
GAMPAHA 15 3
KALUTARA 8 2
NTH WEST. PROV
KURUNEGALA 13 2
PUTTALAM 5 3
NTH CENTRAL PROV
ANURADHAPURA 8 1
POLONNARUWA 3 2
UVA PROV.
BADULLA 6 2
MONERAGAL 4 1
SABARAGAMUWA
RATNAPURA 10 0
KEGALLE 7 2
TOTAL TO BE ELECTED 135 49 12 196
NATIONAL LIST 20 7 2 29
GRAND TOTAL 155 56 14 225

 

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
UPFA UNP/JVP TNA
CENTRAL PROVINCE:
KANDY 6 6
MATALE 3 2
NUWARAELIYA 3 4
EASTERN PROV.
BATTICALOA 1 4
DIGAMADULLA 4 3
TRINCOMALEE 2 2
NORTHERN PROV.
JAFFNA 0 9
WANNI 1 5
SOUTHERN PROV
GALLE 8 2
MATARA 6 2
HAMBANTHOTA 5 2
WESTERN PROV.
COLOMBO 11 8
GAMPAHA 14 4
KALUTARA 7 3
NTH WEST. PROV
KURUNEGALA 13 2
PUTTALAM 5 3
NTH CENTRAL PROV
ANURADHAPURA 7 2
POLONNARUWA 4 1
UVA PROV.
BADULLA 7 1
MONERAGAL 4 1
SABARAGAMUWA
RATNAPURA 9 1
KEGALLE 7 2
TOTAL TO BE ELECTED 127 55 14 196
NATIONAL LIST 19 8 2 29
GRAND TOTAL 146 63 16 225

 

8 Responses to “GENERAL ELECTION OF SRI LANKA – FORECAST FOR AUGUST 2015- LATE SURGE FOR UPFA!”

  1. Techno Says:

    Where is that traitor/back stabber Lorzenso? Not to long ago he was once again praising his donkey Gobasena.
    Every opportunity he gets he tries to put this puppet dictator on a pedestal.
    Despite Lorzenso trying to varnish the Puppets third rate vile hate filled “Letter” of August 13th as something “for the benefit of the UPFA” (including the comical idea of making a tribal minded closet extremist like Fowzie PM) it is obvious the Puppet is working hard to undermine the UPFA and drive voters away from it.
    A friend of mine who wants MR and is a ardent UPFA/SLFP person including his family, was saying if such a traitor is in charge of the UPFA he’ll vote for the JVP so as not to “empower” the traitor puppet dictator. Which is exactly what the traitor puppet dictator and his online twitter army (operating from temple trees) also want.

    Puppet dictator sacked from the party two people he named as potential PMs within 24 hours. WHERE IS Lorzenso? Who was not just praising this move on August 13th but also said here on Lankaweb that the Puppet was “getting strong advice” from some place . Pretty obvious the Puppet dictator (who is lacking intelligence) is being guided by his handlers in the UNP and Western Embassies.
    Is actions in removing Yapa and Susil are illegal as such cannot be done without a Central Committee meeting. The very same Central Commitee meetings the Puppet refuses to hold (taking court action to stop such meetings happening) knowing very well that through such a meeting he is going to be kicked out of the SLFP Chairmanship. So the SCUM’s handlers are telling him not to hold such meetings and abuse his powers to benefit himself not giving a damn for the will of the party (who puppet himself in his 3rd rate hate filled speech of July14th admitted was 99% with MR) or the will of the people.
    This Puppet dictator needs Gadaffi treatment.

  2. Techno Says:

    Traitor puppet dictator sacked Susil and Yapa to control the National list.
    If the “worst case” scenario happened, the 14 UPFA choices will be Puppets choices. They will then cross over to UNP giving UNP 114 seats, thus traitor puppet dictator can give his string puller master a majority in Parliament.

  3. Ananda-USA Says:

    The UNPatriotic Party says there is NO SECURITY THREAT by the LTTE against Sri Lanka!

    YET, the following Indian Newspaper Report says that the LTTE is STILL supplying arms to Maoist REBELS in India!

    If the LTTE does not plan MILITARY OPERATIONS in Sri Lanka, why are LTTE cadre STILL engaging in LUCRATIVE GUN-RUNNING capabilities, STOCKPILING money from gun-running, and establishing connections with the LARGEST MOST-WIDESPREAD terrorist group …. the Naxalites … in India? Why???

    The UNPatriotic Party CARES NOT for OUR Motherland, or the lives of OUR People, but only for the POWER to LOOT our country for the benefit of their racist and evangelist ANTI-NATIONAL collaborators!

    The STORM CLOUDS for RENEWED WAR in Sri Lanka are GATHERING AGAIN; only a LANDSLIDE VICTORY for the Patriotic Forces of the UPFA/SLFP led by President Mahinda Rajapaksa can STOP IT IN ITS TRACKS!

    EMBA SINHALAYENI ….. the security and prosperity of our Motherland now lies in your hands! Vote Wisely with your HEAD, not only your WALLET! Shedding TEARS of REMORSE later WILL BE OF NO USE WHATEVER!

    ………………………….
    Six Sri Lankans Tamils suspected to be LTTE men arrested in Kolkata

    Aug 15, Kolkata: Kolkata special task force on Friday had arrested six Sri Lankan men suspected to be members of the banned terrorist outfit LTTE.

    All the six LTTE men arrested from Chadni Chowk in Kolkata are Sri Lankan Tamils and they have come to Kolkata four days before from Chennai, Times of India reported.

    The police are probing why the six came to Kolkata before the Independent Day celebrations.

    According to the police, two of them – GunaSekharan and BalaSingham are senior leaders of the banned outfit. Police are checking if they came for any operations or for any reconnaissance.

    The police are interrogating them to find if they had links with Maoists, as there are reports that the Maoists are gradually regrouping in Bengal and have plans to start guerilla warfare in Jungalmahal area of Bengal.

    Moreover, the police are also probing if LTTE was supplying arms to the Maoists.

  4. Lorenzo Says:

    My prediction is more subdued. I think UPFA will win 120 seats.

    A VERY BIG DAY tomorrow. UNP is already gearing up with vehicles, money, lunch packets and bottles. We will be concentrating on Hampantota and Gampaha districts – the 2 key battles this time. SAJITH is very strong in Hampantota. That loser cannot be allowed to win with his usual thugs. John Maratunga and thugs are going to create havoc in Gampaha but we will see to that.

    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    BTW Modananda should not get too excited about My3-MR buddying up. They were best buddies and they will be after tomorrow – president and PM.

  5. Techno Says:

    Lorenzo what do you mean? That they will be best friends after the 18th if/when MR secures a majority?
    All indications show clear hate on the part of the Puppet dictator.
    What do you make of the sacking of Susil and Yapa. Is that not to undermine the national list nominations so as to put Puppets loyalists to enable cross-overs so as to give Puppet dictators string puller a majority to once again (illegally) make him PM against the wishes of the people?

  6. Daya Says:

    I got some very different figures about three days ago from the same source who sent me pretty accurate figures (skewed a little in favour of Maithripala Sirisena) before the Presidential Elections on the 8th of January.

    TK Research & Solutions (Pvt) Ltd +94 11 434 7629

    They had given something like this:

    UPFA 84 seats 3,704,266 votes

    UNP 110 seats 4,927,317 votes

    TNA 14 seats 332,581 votes

    Democratic Party: 1 seat 179,529 seats

    The breakdown of seats only per district were also given: I had to laboriously copy them down by hand (I’m lacking in computer skills, I guess!). Some of the ones I thought significantly different were:

    District UPFA UNP JVP TNA

    Colombo 6 11 2 0

    Kandy 5 4 1 0

    N’Eliya 2 6 0 0

    Galle 5 4 1 0

    Ratnapura 6 4 1 0

    Badulla 2 6 0 0

    Jaffna 1 2 0 4

    Well, that’s dated the 12th August 2015, but as Mr. M D P Dissanayake says they may have changed quite a bit after the correspondence between Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa and M. Maithripala Sirisena.

    We really must have objectivity. I thought it just a bit eccentric for Mr. Dissanayake to have lumped the UNP and the JVP together. They, together with the UPFA are contesting all the Districts in the country, as far as I know. My observation after voting in a rather remote area was as follows:

    I’ve voted around 10.00 a.m., and come back home and discovered to my horror that this desk top computer is still on. No power outages while I was away, fortunately – there were so many on Saturday in this remote area where I’ve lived all my life.

    All quiet and peaceful, as others reported while I was walking downhill to vote. People said that they were happy (and looked so, too!) that there has been no hustle and bustle this time. While I was returning an SUV belonging to one of the monitoring groups was going towards the polling booth.

    One “violation” was very visible: literally thousands of little bits of paper bearing the symbol and numbers of the District leader and candidates belonging to the closest town scattered on the road – would have been done in the early hours of the morning. In other words, in the District there must have been millions. They belonged to the TWO major parties – none from the JVP.

    As for me, I took my time at the Polling Centre reading all the notices (well, in English only – my reading) appearing in all three National Languages so there really was no need for this sort of over-kill by the candidates.

    Seems to be the happy story elsewhere also. My daughter, who lives in a suburb of Colombo, telephoned at 8.49 saying that she, and my wife, had voted as the polls opened, and then she’d taken a bus to her office (a journey that takes a minimum of 45 minutes) and she was entitled to leave at 1.00 p.m. – or some such time – to vote! I advised her to stay on a little longer if there really is work, and also to sleep early tonight so as to wake about 3.00 a.m. since that is when the meaningful results start coming in.

    Well, whatever the outcome, let’s hope there has been no rigging elsewhere; I saw little to bother me, apart from the bits of paper!

  7. Daya Says:

    I’m sorry, I had missed out on the JVP: Here is the prediction:

    TK Research & Solutions (Pvt) Ltd +94 11 434 7629

    JVP 16 seats, 722,282 votes

    Obviously, when they give exact numbers of seats, rather than rounded to the nearest thousand or so, one can’t take those figures at face value.

    For the record, though, their predictions were skewed in favour of Sirisena, as compared with the final results that I’ve got from Wikipedia:

    T.K. Research: Reg. Voters: 15,044,490 Turnout: 11,885,885 Turnout %: 79%; Rajapaksa: 5,220,[email protected] 43.92%; Siririsena: 6,547,102 @55.08%

    Wikipedia: 15,044,490: Valid Votes:12,123,453; Rejected votes: 140,925; Turnout:81.52%; MR: 5,768,090: 47.58%; M. Sirisena: 6,217,162 : 51.28%

    I mentioned the correspondence; I forgot the questionable replacement of the secretaries of the UPFA and the SLFP after all campaigning had stopped.

  8. Lorenzo Says:

    Not to worry, Daya.

    Voters are going to the booths. Still not enough but hopefully they will.

    This is the time to pull as many voters as we can. Only half an hour to go.

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