The Muslim Sri Lankan Population : Debunking Myths & Phobias
Posted on June 17th, 2019

Courtesy  BISTHANBATCHA

A common belief, bordering on paranoia, among many Sinhala Buddhists is that some time in the foreseeable future the Sri Lankan Muslims, driven by unfettered population growth, will emerge as the Majority Community in this Island Nation, thereby reducing the Sinhala Buddhists to a minority in what they often describe very emotionally as the only Country in the World that they can call their own”. The following popular perceptions of Muslims are very often mentioned as evidence of this inevitable catastrophe.

  • SL Muslims have the highest population growth rates
  • SL Muslims have large families
  • SL Muslims do not practice family planning
  • The percentage of SL Muslims in the total population is steadily increasing
  • SL Muslims are wealthy
  • Muslim Males can have four wives simultaneously
  • Muslims have high fertility rates
  • Islam is the fastest growing religion in the World

Although many Muslims have attempted to address this issue and allay such fears, it continues to  persist and is made use of by various racist elements and groups to foment and aggravate anti-Muslim sentiments to achieve their own political, economic and social goals.

This article is yet another attempt to lay to rest once and for all this irrational, atavistic fear among the Sinhala Buddhists. It will examine the impact of the Muslim Population in two distinct stages – the past and the future – and will demonstrate beyond any and all doubt that there is absolutely no valid basis for any such fear on the part of the Buddhist Community.

The Past Scenario : According to the data published by the Department of Census & Statistics, the Buddhist and Muslim Populations at each of the 13 Censuses conducted periodically since 1881 are as follows :

census

The size of the gap between the numbers of Buddhists and Muslims in Sri Lanka has continued to increase steadily since 1881. This is illustrated more clearly in the chart below.

pop-graph

If the Gap between the two populations is steadily increasing, then one does not need to possess an intelligence of Einsteinian proportions to conclude that the number of Muslims  is not poised to exceed  the number of Buddhists in the foreseeable future in Sri Lanka.

Therefore, based on official Government Population Statistics for the past 130 years, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever for the Buddhist Community to harbor even an iota of concern, apprehension or fear that they will be reduced to a minority by the Muslims in Sri Lanka.

The Future Scenario : The focus then shifts to the future – specifically the population estimates based on past trends. These estimates are of two types – ‘share-based’ and ‘growth-based’.

Share-based Forecasts:  This refers to the oft-quoted ‘share’ of the Total Population accounted for by the Muslim Community in Sri Lanka. The relevant share for each Census Year is given in the chart below.

share-graph

It is fairly common nowadays to find ‘analyses’ being performed on the population shares of the major ethnic groups in Sri Lanka over the past 100 years to justify and reinforce the fears of the Buddhist Community that sometime in the very distant future, they will swamped by the Muslims of Sri Lanka. A noteworthy feature of all these forecasts is that the unit of analysis is the seemingly harmless ‘percentage’.

In their rush to identify the date of this catastrophic event, these ‘Analysts’ appear to have forgotten the fact that a ‘Percentage’ is merely a number or ratio expressed as a fraction of 100 and is calculated on some specific base. For example, the base could be the Population of Sri Lanka in 2011 and the proportions accounted for by the Buddhist and Muslim Communities are 70.2% and 9.7% respectively. Moreover, ‘Percentages’ are used essentially to compare the status of a single variable in two or more different bases or of multiple variables in a single base. For example, Muslims accounted for 7% of the total population in 1981 and 9.7% of the total population in 2011.

Being numerically a type of index, percentages cannot be subjected to any mathematical operation (i.e. addition, subtraction, multiplication or division) unless – and only if –  such percentages refer to calculations performed on the same base. It is therefore mathematically incorrect to calculate a forecast based on trend data consisting of percentages relating to different time periods for the simple reason that whatever be the model used for estimation (i.e. Linear, Exponential, Polynomial, Moving Averages or whatever), the method will involve the use of a combination of mathematical operations.

Therefore, future population estimates cannot be based on historical ‘shares’ (or percentages) data.

Growth-based Forecasts :  This refers to the use of ‘Rates of Growth’ of the different Population Groups between any two Census Years. Proponents of this method of analysis focus on the Population data for the 1981 and 2011/2012 Census. This is given in the table below.

growth-1

First, a word about trend lines or trend curves based on growth rates. The simple fact of the matter is that any two trend lines or curves must intersect at some point unless the lines are perfectly parallel as illustrated in the three charts below.

charts

If the growth rate of the ‘Upper’ Trend Line is greater than that of the ‘Lower’ Trend Line, then the two lines would have intersected sometime in the past. (Chart 1)

If the growth rate of the ‘Upper’ Trend Line is less than that of the ‘‘Lower’ Trend Line, then the two lines would  intersected sometime in the future. (Chart 2)

If the growth rates of the ‘‘Upper’ Trend Line and that of the ‘Lower’ Trend Line are equal, then the two lines would never intersect. (Chart 3)

In the cases of the trend lines or curves for the Buddhist and Muslim Population data, the growth rate of the ‘Upper Buddhist Line’ (1.1%) is less than that of the ‘Lower Muslim Line’ (1.9%). Therefore the two lines must intersect sometime in the future. And at that point in time, the Muslim Population would be equal to the Buddhist Population.

In order to determine the point in time when the two populations are equal, the two populations are extrapolated exponentially using the 2012 data as the base and the applying the corresponding growth rates annually. The detailed estimates at the end of every decade are given in the table below.

[The formula used to calculate the annual estimate is as follows :

Estimated Population for a specific year = Estimated Population for previous year x (1+r), where r is the rate of growth expressed in decimals.]

trend-1
Pop1

Therefore it appears to be the case that, 251 years hence, in the Year 2263, the worst fears of the Buddhist Community will be realized with the  Muslim Population emerging as the Majority Community in Sri Lanka ! An underlying assumption, as in the cases of all such extrapolations , is that the political, economic, social and technological factors that existed during the 30-year period 1981 – 2011 , will continue to exist during the next 250 years too. Is this a realistic, sensible assumption?

To test the credibility of this ‘Growth-based Forecasts’, similar extrapolations of population size are also developed for two other religious groups – Roman Catholics and Non-RC Christians. The relevant basic data are as follows :

growth-2

The annual estimates of population size are given below for all four religious groups.

trend-2
Pop2
Pop3

So in a nutshell, what the above extrapolation exercise, based on Census data for 1981 and 2012 tells us is that :

conc

Thus, if the exponential growth Method of Extrapolation is deemed to be acceptable and accurate, then it appears to be the case that in the Year 2203, Sri Lanka will become a Majority Christian Nation pushing the Buddhists to second place in terms of population. Then a further 60 years later, in 2263, the Buddhists will be pushed to third position by the Muslim Community.

And the icing on the cake is that at this point in time (Year 2262), the Total Population of Sri Lanka will be in excess of 1.1 Billion !!! (which is the current population of India). Looks like Sri Lanka is heading for a pretty crowded future.

The very nature of such estimates reflects very strongly the crassness, stupidity and ridiculousness of estimating population sizes beyond reasonable limits of time. The purpose of introducing the two Christian Groups into the calculations was not to create problems for that Community, but merely to highlight the absurdity of using this method of estimation.

Conclusion Based on this analysis of the Past and Future Scenarios, it is therefore concluded that the Muslim Community in no way poses a credible threat to the Majority Community of Sri Lanka with regard to population growth.

8 Responses to “The Muslim Sri Lankan Population : Debunking Myths & Phobias”

  1. Hiranthe Says:

    Thank you for producing a beautiful report. However, I have a concern here. The rate of growth “r” should be exponential. It is like the Pyramid lottery.

    If a 30-year-old Sinhala couple marry today (June 2019) and produce children starting from the following year with a 2-year gap between each child, by their age of 40 in June 2029, they will have 4 kids.
    Similarly, if a Muslim couple marry today (June 2019) at the age of 18, (@ legally allowed age), if they produce children starting from the following year with a 2-year gap between each child, by their age of 40 in June 2029, they will have 9 kids.

    The 4 Sinhala kid born from June 2020 to June 2029 will get married at age 30 and will produce 4 further kids by each by their age 40. (say A, B, C, D). The last one D, turns age 40 in June 2060. By this time all of them will have produced 4 x 4 = 16 kids and this first cycle ends in 2060.

    The 8 Sinhala kid born from June 2020 to June 2041 will get married at age 30 and will produce 8 further kids by each by their age 40. (say P, Q, R, S, T, U, V, W). The last one W, turns age 40 in June 2081. By this time all of them will have produced 8 x 8 = 64 kids and this first cycle ends in 2060.

    By considering only the growth of first line of kids from the old parents, by 2081 Sinhala will be increased by 16 numbers and Muslims will be increased by 64 nos.

    The situation is more serious as the 3rd line of kids will start producing too at the age of 18 for Muslims and 30 for Sinhala. A mathematical formula must be derived to calculate this complex growth pattern. And the gap in Muslim families is not 2 years. They produce each year.

    Using 2012 statistical figures is misleading. The Mossie Baby machines have really start progressing around 2012 when these Madrasa culture has gone to our Muslim villages. 7 years gone by…

    There was a report that one Muslim male who married 4 women has produced 28 kids and they have a small Madrasa at their home producing suicide bombers… All these statistics are useless and misleading when you consider such behavioural patterns.

    Sinhala people should not fall into a false comfort by such articles. The danger is HUGE.

    The only possible way out is, we should become a spiritually strong Buddhist nation. Then the nature will help us spreading metta to every living being and all these mass-produced Broiler Chicken type Mossie kids will embrace Buddhism. Otherwise no way to beat it. We can’t kill them similar to what Muslims did to Buddhist nations.

  2. Christie Says:

    Forget the Muslims who are mostly Sinhalese.

    Our problem is Indian Colonial Parasites who will wipe out us all like in Andamans.

  3. Ananda-USA Says:

    This analysis does not address the full scope of the problem of RAPID Muslim population growth.

    The global pattern of Muslim population growth shows, that when the Muslim population achieves a certain CRITICAL FRACTION of the total population, they begin to undermine and terrorize the other communities, including even the majority population. resulting in RAPID acceleration of FORCED religious conversion to Islam.

    That is a UNALTERABLE consequence of the teachings of Islam, particularly its more conservative and aggressive forms, that now have the wealth and the means to ENGINEER those conversions at an ever increasing rapid pace.

    Therefore, the RATE of growth of the Muslim population based on historical data within Sri Lanka, that has not yet reached that CRITICAL MTURNING POINT in its Muslim Population, does not begin to address Sri Lanka’s FINAL FATE.

    The assumed Muslim 1.9% Vs Buddhist 1% growth rates (ONE nearly DOUBLE the OTHER) based on 1981 to 2011 data in Sri Lanka does not show this ACCELERATION. Curve fitting of that kind is NORORIOUSLY INSENSITIVE to EMERGING TRENDS. Instead, we have to look at the experience of other countries that have reached and MOVED BEYOND that stage.

    Even so, a doubling of the RATE between the two communities yields an unacceptable rate of growth for the Muslim Community from the point of view of the Sinhala Buddhists WHO HAVE AN INALIENABLE INTEREST in PERMANENTLY remaining Sri Lanka’s majority Community by a HUGE MARGIN. It is only through being the PREPONDERANTLY MAJORITY COMMUNITY in Sri Lanka that we can FOREVER PRESERVE our Culture, Our Language, and Our Religion in Sri Lanka as the homeland of our unique people for ALL TIME!

    There is NO WAY that we Sinhalese Buddhists will SWALLOW the PALLIATIVE BILGEWATER that there is NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT because there is a VERY LONG TIME UNTIL ARMAGEDDON arrives at our doorstep that THIS AUTHOR serves to us on a gilded platter to make it ACCEPTABLE to us Sinhala Buddhists.

    I will write more to DEBUNK this AUTHOR’S ANALYSIS, but we Sinhala Buddhists DARE NOT WAIT UNTIL the TIDE TURNS IRREVOCABLY AGAINST US in the fullness of time. Like compound interest that builds great wealth given sufficient time, given sufficient time the larger Muslim population growth rate, which will accelerate in the future after reaching the CRITICAL MASS in Muslim population, will overwhelm any and all before it.

    Are we then to ABJECTLY SUPINELY ACCEPT this mathematical formula of population compounding by others as UNALTERABLE, and INEXORABLE? HELL NO, I say … it is only a mathermatical CONSTRUCT … let us CONSTRUCT another FORMULA and implement it! Let us DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT, even by DEVISING & CHANGING the UNDERLYING SOCIAL CONTRACTS that govern the way we GROW the population of our own Community relative to the other communities!

    IT IS TIME that the Sinhala Buddhists JOINED TOGETHER to implement those CHANGES IN GOVERNANCE, ADMINISTRATION and DEFENCE OF OUR MOTHERLAND to FOREVER PREVENT the DISPLACEMENT of the Sinhala Buddhists from their traditional place in Sri Lanka as its PREPONDERANT MAJORITY COMMUNITY of their hallowed Motherland!

    We CAN BE, indeed we MUST BE, the ARCHITECTS of our own saving! We have a HALLOWED DUTY TOWARDS our DESCENDANTS yet unborn, to PRESERVE their Motherland FOREVER for them, as our ANCESTORS preserved it for us, at great sacrifice in BLOOD, SWEAT and TEARS!

    We CAN, and we MUST, do so for we are DUTY BOUND!

  4. Christie Says:

    We Sinhalese are barking at the wrong tree.

    Muslims as a religious group are increasing.

    Indian Colonial Parasites (Tamils and others) who are mainly Hindus are increasing faster than any other group.

    Se what has happened in Fiji, Guyana etc.

    It is sad to see what is written by Ananda USA and Hiranthe.

    Few bombs by few Muslims appears to be worse than those killed by Indian sponsored LTTE and the JVP.

  5. Ancient Sinhalaya Says:

    SL Muslims have the highest population growth rates
    SL Muslims have large families
    SL Muslims do not practice family planning
    The percentage of SL Muslims in the total population is steadily increasing
    SL Muslims are wealthy
    Muslim Males can have four wives simultaneously
    Muslims have high fertility rates
    Islam is the fastest growing religion in the World

    All true apart from the last one. It should be islam is the fastest breeding religion. Any fool can understand if you have more children, you have more followers of their religion since the children not going to be called
    Buddhadasa, Samanmali, Chris, Rita etc. They all will be called mohamad, ahmad, ahmad mohamad, fathima etc. etc. Intention here is to divert from the facts to say it is the catholics and carry on multiplying. Obviously Sinhala modayas will fall into it.

    What happened to old Buddhist iran, afganisthan, pakesthan, bangladesh, malaysia, indonesia only a few hundred
    years after the arrivals of mussies in those countries with their baby machine wives? Mussies multiplied and
    multiplied and murdered all the natives and they all became mussie countries.

    Look at the Chinese community in Sri Lanka to see how to live in a host country. They’ve been living in Sri Lanka
    for 100s of years in every major town and numbers have never increased, fully integrated, and nobody notices
    they are even there. Reason? Union of two of them produce one or two and numbers never go up. Mussies?
    Mussies will multiply like rabbits and the whole place will be awash in no time and eye sore mosques, halal, goni
    billa dress (high fashion in hell) etc. etc. and destroy the communal harmony in no time. Then with increased
    numbers (votes), there will be mps, mayors, ministers, governors etc. etc. and the traitors will pay back
    handsomely by aiding and abetting more breeding, destruction of Buddhist temples, destroying forest reserves
    to settle down new breeds etc. etc. never pausing moment to think it all going to end up in bloodbaths.

    All the crimes (sins) any two legged creature can do anywhere in the world:
    1 killing
    2 stealing
    3 sexual misconduct
    4 lying
    5 dru/alcohol abuse
    Refraining from the above five are Buddhism’s Five Precepts and all the law courts under the sun use them as
    their penal code. 72 virgins? Of course, if you are brain dead/brainless. Murder tops the list and the culprit get
    the maximum punishment and end up straight in the animal kingdom for 100s, 1000s lifetimes before get the ‘promotion’ to be two legged creature again (Theory of Evolution). People used to worship trees, rivers, mountains, gods in the olden days in the absence of science. Today, religions have to pass the science test to be accepted
    as true.

    There is only one religion passes that test with flying colours, Buddhism. What The Buddha preached,
    science keep discovering. Theory of Evolution, size of the universe etc. etc. all The Buddha preached over 2,500
    years ago. Buddhism disappeared from its birth place since it didn’t fit the society with caste system, animal
    sacrifices etc. and people quickly reverted back to religions of conveniences which don’t regard sins as sins, only
    to pay for them in the next 100s, 1000s of lifetimes. Then invading mussies killed all the Buddhist monks and
    burnt down the Buddhist universities (a world’s first) and got rid of the only true religion for good from its birth
    place. Buddhism’s doesn’t have paid staff (all Buddhist monks rely on people’s donations to survive) or rich,
    powerful organisation or encourage fast breeding to propagate it since it is up to the individual alone to live this
    life well and make sure the next one is a two legged existence. Lying is also a major sin and people lie have to
    be careful to avoid not being a two legged one in the next life.

  6. Dilrook Says:

    Complete lies.

    Look at the percentage of children by ethnicity. Muslims are far more than 9.8% in the children population which means in a generation or two Muslims will take over the country as the majority. God forbid!

    In 1981 Muslims were 7.5% of the population. By 2012 it rose to 9.8%. A super massive increase of 30%.

    In 1981 Non-Muslims were 92.5% of the population. By 2012 it declined to 90.2%. A decrease of 3%.

    If this dangerous trend continues, non-Muslims will be less than 90% at the next census and keep falling census after census.

    This is the dangerous trend you should address. We must reverse this trend by whatever means.

  7. Christie Says:

    Just because few Muslims mislead by Indian moles; we have forgotten our arch enemies who lives off us and breed like flies.

    They have out bread the native Fijians and Guyanese.

    It is sad our leaders only see the next door Muslim but not the Indian Parasites in Estates, North and the East.

  8. Dilrook Says:

    This is a good explanation of the Muslim population bomb by Udaya Gammanpila.

    “https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=tzUyjGQjW30”

    Among children under 12, Muslim percentage is a massive 12.5% compared to just 9.2% of over 12 Muslim population. Averages to 9.8%.

    That means a massive 36% increase in Muslim population in a generation.

    Muslim excessive population growth must be cut down soon.

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