LTTE Strategy Bearing Fruit On Eelam

By Jason

As I have indicated previously the LTTE strategy is bearing fruit on Eelam. I wrote this to Sri Lankan government and newspapers many a times. My writings were never put in the print understandably due to the fear or reluctance to see the reality. When human beings are afraid of something they either hesitant to look at it or completely shy away from it. This is the case with current Sri Lankan government. They are in a panic as one of opposition members describes it. When you are in a panic situation you do not see the reality. Similarly when one is excited and overjoyed one does not see the reality. This is the reason why that an ancient Chinese addage says " when you are extremely happy do not promise anybody anything."
The LTTE strategy is two pronged. It is a very simple but broad based. The strategy is deception both in the military field as well as in the political and diplomatic fields. It is launched through an intricately linked relationship between Prabhakaran who is War monger and his seemingly deceiving peace vendors who are working for the Tamil expatriate in their countries. They appear in many forms like NGO's National Governments, and Humanitarian Organizations. ( If explicitely listed, Norway, India, the U.K. and European Union countries, Medicines sans Frontiers (this is the official LTTE health care provider), AI and BBC).
If we remember Vadamarachchi operation when LTTE was on the verge of being wiped out in the hands of Sri Lankan military India intervened and forced a peace package on Sri Lanka which is still reverberating in political and constitutional circles.
LTTE strategy is so simple as to deceive any rational thinking individual. When they are strong they attack but keep the olive branch ready just in case it is needed. But when they are weak they employ those peace vendors to buy the time for them. This circle goes on until the Sri Lankan government bleeds an economic death and people acceed to demand of Eelam or almost Eelam. They employ peace vendors when things are going agaisnt them and employ military muscle when things are in favor of them. These cycles of peace-war psychosis put military into relax mind set and beguiles gullible Sri Lankan political leadership.

At present Jaffna is enveloped in a war. But if one pause and think for a moment, prior to 1990 government was confined to only Palaly camp in the whole of North. With determined effort LTTE was driven out of Jaffna. If the Govt. had continued the war with the same zeal it would have already won the war. In a war there is no time for relax, consolidation of land areas liberated and clearing mines. They are done aftermath of the war not after a battle. If any military ponders on a victory of a single battle it sure will be defeated in the next battle. After Jaffna, Govt. let Prabhakaran capture Mullativu and build bunkers. The end result is what we are witnessing today. Whenever Sri Lankan Military was on the offensive LTTE was on contant run and Military casualties were very low. It is an ideots guide to war beacuse you do not allow enemy to regroup and gain strength.
Current events are perfectly working out for LTTE. When they are battling on the field their peace vendors are selling peace deals to Sri Lankan leaders who are in a panic situation and would wants to swallow any pill to save the face. This is amply evident by her recent statement to one of the Tamil MPs. " Those Sinhalese who wants to continue the war should be ready to send their sons and daughters to the war." Utterly ridiculous statement coming out of a confused leader. Are n't those poor Sinhalese mothers who sent their sons and daughters to fight a war for stupid political leaders for 17 years who does not have a vision, understand purpose of their mission. It is not Bandaranayake's, Wickermasinghe's, Premadasa's or JR's sons who are fighting. Or it is not sons of Colombo elites who are fighting against Terrorists. It is the sons of those poor mothers. They did not have to go that way if not for the poor leadership of the country who does not have a strategy to fight a war and who confuses military with half hearted wars and deceiving peace deals. In the name of peace Premadasa sent 800 service personnel directly to LTTE guillotine. Is n't that foolish leadership.
As an old saying goes "A pack of lions led by a sheep even destroys the pride of lions" This is about the leadership.

On Sri Lankan government's part there was never a determined war to reach a conclusion that countries like Norway has reached. Their conclusion is that this war is unwinnable. War had to be fought without half hearted attempts and seemingly deceiving peace deals in order to reach such a conclusion. Even today when the country is supposedly kept on war footing, and fighting the war it is talking about peace. Think for a moment when a pitched battle is raging why Norway is so enthusiastic to sell a peace deal and work out a solution. Because it is working hand in hand with LTTE to achieve its objectives. The fact of the matter is that LTTE is not in a superior position in Jaffna even today. Their numbers have more diminished than Government military due to their stupid tactics. Suicidal tactics are terror tactics that impose a severe blow on enemy's morale and psycholology but destroy one's own strength. This same Kamikaze tactics of Japanese Airforce, and Navy led the U.S. into thinking that Japanese are undeatable unless they unleash a mass destructive weapon like Atom Bomb. That was one of the reasons why that the U.S. used Atom Bomb on Japan to end the war.

However, a professional military as I indicated is not on a suicidal mission. It attacks when it is strong and it retreats when it is weak. For a professional military its men and women are the greatest asset not equipements. That is why Sri Lankan army is withdrawing on the onslaught of Artillery and RPG rains. It can not be regarded as a panic situation. Only panic if at all it should create is the panic that these long range artillery can reach the main Palaly base. It is the wall against which Sri Lankan army can be pushed by LTTE. So the worst case scenario would be to pull out from Jaffna and confront LTTE the same way Govt. confronted them in 1990 but with a determined effort. Half hearted wars and imported peace deals have proven to be illusions in the history.
Therefore, Sri Lankan Government should under no circumstances create a peace psychology on soldiers minds who are fighting bravely to defend their territories. LTTE has extended psychological Amnesty to soldiers in the battle field as well as in the political field through Norway. This is a multi-pronged tactic that LTTE is playing in its Eelam war. Failing to understand it for what it is would be detrimental to the souvereignty of the country.
India on the other hand awiting the right moment in intervene and do a tit for tat Premadasa deal. If India were to intervene this time it will be in favor of LTTE not infavor of Sri Lankan government. There is nothing that India can gain by backing untrustworthy, undiplomatic treatment it handed down to Sri Lanka which herself gained a good return for it at the time of pull out from Sri Lankan soil. One must not forget that Indian Military left behind massive loads of arms and ammunitions for LTTE to fight against the Sri Lankan military when it withdrew. So LTTE was nourished both by then Sri Lankan Govt. as well as leaving Indian army. Indian Govt. stands to gain in a big scale politically by pleasing its southern Tamil Nadu province than pleasing the Sri Lankan government which it does not trust at all for geo political reasons. Therefore, peace deals that are being pushed in panic circumstances need to be frowned and scanned in detail. Though LTTE is on the offensive, it may very well be on the verge of running out of gas soon. This asymmetry of information causes a great damge to Sri Lanka in a peace deal if Military is not given the full liberty to decide the ground situation and reasses its strategy of defeating LTTE militarily.

As I have indicated LTTE can be defeated militarily without even a fight. How? Issue and order for people in Wanni to evacuate and give them two weeks. They can be kept wellfed in refugee camps temporarily. Then Govt., ICRC, Medicines Sans Frontieres, do not have to go to Wanni to feed them or take care of them. They can be well looked after until wa is over. Stop sending food and medicines to Wanni. If the people have not evacuated there is every reason to believe that they are LTTE members. If Govt. begin the military campaign after such an step Govt. are killing civillians because It has evacuated civillians. Govt. will not be providing food and medicine to LTTE. Napolean said that "every army travels on its stomach." That is the reason why LTTE is hanging on to so called civillians. Transporting food from either India or any other part will not be a viable alternative for LTTE as they are transporting arms. So can be starved to death. Govt. appears to be sole searching in a panic when real options are available to defeat a gang of terrorists.