WILL THE INDO-AMERICAN GAME PLAN MAKE THE TIGER IMPOTENT?
Prof. Hudson McLean
A highly desirable and a practical compromise between a military and a commercial solution is taking shape with the American military umbrella providing a wide safety net to back up the Indian commercial relationship, in which America will have an indirect interest.
This practical ideal solution of a military-commercial compromise has been suggested by Uncle Mac in several papers published in LankaWeb.
The "man-behind-the-show", according to a reputable information cable is, Prof. G. L. Peries, who is expected to lead the ever elusive peace negotiations, if and when such a dialogue materialises, during his lifetime.
The Sinhala majority may now sigh a breath of relief knowing that the proverbial "Stable door is bolted from within and from outside with all RanilW's men and LTTE Cats reasonably well locked in!"
The Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) having expressed an interest in taking over the Oil Tanks Farm (OTF) lock stock and barrel, has in fact agreed to position their essential security apparatus in Trincomalee, mainly as a defensive exercise.
The American expression of interest to conduct joint naval exercises with the Sri Lankan Navy has several meanings. The main objective is not the security of Sri Lanka against the Tamil terrorists, but to maintain a 'finger on the pulse of the Indian defence objectives'. The priority is, to maintain a close watch on the Indo-Pak conflict and to diffuse any nuclear ambitions of either or both parties, since USA is now an ally of both countries.
The leasing of the OTF on a nominal peppercorn rental plus a fee based on usage, will not bust the Indian bank and the Sri Lankan wind bags should gratefully and gracefully accept the bucksheez defence shield.
The Americans have implied several times that USA will be very pleased to enter into cooperation with the Indians on a sublease, in order not to enforce the domineering and counter productive profile and tactics on a political stage. However, the direct engagement with the Sri Lankan government Defence Forces (SLDF) will certainly improve the moral of SLDF personnel.
The joint Indo-American game plan will, in a way, is a silent painless castration of the LTTE Tigers, devised and implemented by the clever Prof. Peries, in a most elegant, civilised and a subtle manner. And RanilW played along with "silly" politics, entertaining the audience including Madam CBK, whilst the negotiations with the Indian government on track as early as in October 2001, long before the elections, producing some positive results. Thus RanilW was able to offer "attractive concessions" to satisfy the continuous greed of the LTTE Terrorists, without actually compromising on the integrity of the Island.
Naturally some of the insiders within the UNF camp, leaked tidbits of the intentions to the LTTE officials, purposely, on command, and now one sees the background to the sequence of events. My humble contribution, then and ongoing, one might read in the LankaWeb.
The Sinhala audience may now read between the lines on how the intricate web of LTTE demands were woven into an appealing counter offering on a platter by RanilW and his close advisers. The giant candy floss offered as a sweetener contained a fraction of the volume in terms of weight. Behind that naive and the simple look on the smiling face of RanilW, is a clever manipulative mind. One might add that the Son of Esmond may emerge in his own right. He has thrown his net far and wide, and giving enough rope to the LTTE to hang themselves.
This gives the Indians and Americans an open ticket to enter Sri Lankan territorial waters without too much hassle or formalities. Just in case, any Tiger provocation or accidental incidents against the Sri Lanka paying guests might occur, the resulting turnround will be an immediate retaliatory reactions by their joint Indo-American forces backed by Israeli advisors, without a need for any formal permission from SLG. The standard line adopted by UncleSam and Israel on the War Against Terrorism.
Furthermore, it is understood that the American government will maintain a careful observation on the LTTE support bases and on individuals resident in USA, in the interests of American security. Any funding of known and declared terrorist organization, by an American citizen or an American resident, will be treated as treason and will be punishable harshly, with a long prison sentence or even death penalty, supported by impounding of all assets.
Already, the American FBI has interviewed several Tamil residents in several States in the USA and MI5 has deployed counter intelligence warfare on suspected Tamils in the UK, including Dr. Anton and Colonel Adele Balasingham. Colonel Adele is considered by some of the LTTE heirachy to be their own version of Sonia Gandhi wannabe.
Indians have a dual objective. First, the slightest terrorist activity against Indian interests will give them an excuse to enter into the NE areas, both for offensive as well as defensive activity, and in pursuit of the perpetrators.
Both the current Indian government would dearly like to get their hands on VP and Pottu Amman, and have a show trial. Second, the Indians will maintain a permanent check on all sea routes within the Palk Straits and the Bay of Bengal, in order to restrict the illegal sea borne traffic, between TamilNadu, LTTE and other suppliers, with their permanent Indian Naval reconnaissance.
This is not a sellout of Sri Lankan territorial integrity, but getting two friendly giants to give a helping hand in the interests of peace and security in the South Asian subcontinent, pro bono.
There are also several whispers of an early demise of the King Cat Velupillai Prabhakaran (VP), one way or the other. The Tamil intelligentsia within the Diaspora would like to gracefully withdraw their involvement from the terrorist support scene by pulling the plug out on the LTTE funding operation.
Many of those who are settled down comfortably in middle class respectable neighbourhoods, maintaining decent employment, mainly under pressure from their naturalised families, would like to call it a day. Most of them are very concerned that a picture of their daddy in the local rag with a title, "Your local doctor was a Terrorist supporter", will spell an end to their cycle of respectability. If by chance, a land mine blew up under VP and his family in the near future, those Tamil expats would simply thank God and not shed any tears.
RanilW, with his simple policies of a clever astute politician, by giving more than what the LTTE deserves, thus creating immense and positive media coverage, bending over backwards (oops!) to accommodate the demands, has effectively closed the door on Tamils seeking political refuge in the West. United Kingdom specifically stated recently that, in future, Sri Lankans seeking political refugee status, would be shunted back to Paradise. Other countries such as Italy, Canada, Australia and USA shall adopt a similar stance.
This policy effectively blocks the additional flow of funding to LTTE from Tamil refugees and diminishes the sympathy for LTTE Tamil cause and de facto, the importance of the LTTE crusade. The stigma of the Terrorist status of the LTTE and its Top Cats will caste a permanent shadow with its sympathisers.
Then there are the political animals, such as Dr. Anton and Colonel Adele Balasingham. Dingo Adele is reputed to be the Colonel.in-Chief of the LTTE women's force. The Australian wild dog Dingo, is reputed to steal human infants as fodder for the litter. These are a blood thirsty lot. The politicos will not think twice about blowing up the fat Tiger for their own personal gain. Within the terrorist infrastructure, nothing is personal, but pure idealogy, as the Ideologue Antonius would confirm. Any member who slips on to the hard shoulder on the Terrorist Motorway, is dispensable.
More important, however, one must never forget the economics of terrorism. Voluntary donations, Blackmail, Drug trafficking, Arms smuggling, Illegal freight forwarding, Prostitution are some of the multi-million dollar revenue sources of the LTTE. Although Tamils are renown to be excellent book keepers and accountants, this expertise can cut both ways.
Several LTTE middle management disappeared in concrete pits in building sites over the last four years, for misappropriating funds. Since many of the donations either are given in cash, gold, valuables or transferred through disguised enterprises, it is impossible to control every dollar entering the pot.
As mentioned in an earlier paper, several immigrants, who entered without a penny in their pockets and received temporary passports from several host countries on the basis of political refugee status, are leading very comfortable affluent lives. The children have received expensive private education and the parents are elegantly displaying designer clothes, whilst the parents are still claiming welfare benefits.
Many of those who are fronts for the LTTE financial collection services, where the funds are transferred in the old fashion way, are side lining the bank direct debit infrastructure. Thus any good accountant will balance the books in favour of his chosen master and every accountant has his own price. Naturally, fees for the services are deducted at source and some of the funds get misteriously spirited away. A sudden loss in income due to UNF peace programme will unnecessarily upset this apple cart.
Therefore a change in leadership may mean liquidating some of the current Top Cats, under the guise of patriotism or an accident. According to very close LTTE sources, VP has several food tasters who taste the food for VP, and are called to duty at random, just in case, as a triple guarantee, if one of the regular taster has taken an antidote. And cyanide is easily hidden in a cup of tea or in a Dosai.
No wonder RanilW can now afford to take things easy, enjoy a game of cricket at Lords, nip in for a cuppa at the Buck House and have a Chivas Regal or two with Teflon Tony aka Boy Blair.
We also understand from the Bombs and Bullets grapevine, something similar to Jane's, the leading rag in the defense industry, that the Israeli's have advised RanilW on his personal security programme. Whilst in the UK, RanilW might have a briefing from the SAS, the originators of James Bond adventures.
The Americans may turn a blind eye to any Israeli involvement in the Sri Lankan defence programme. Furthermore, the Israeli Defence Industries are playing an important role in the Indian Defence programme. The Israelis have not forgotten the Tamil terrorist trainees they came across in Shaba and Shatilla terrorist camps when General Sharon sent in the Lebanese Militia.
If all things come true and materialise according to plan, and if Murphy's (Sod's) Law does not play any games, it may mean that, there will be a great many impotent Tigers, and Tigresses on the pill, not the cyanide pill but the other one. According to veterinary authoritarians on animal behaviour, such animals can turn out to be unpredictably aggressive and vicious, as a means of catharsis, to let the steam out. One might pen a series of stories on "The Adventures of The Non-performing Tiger Dick". Perhaps Erik Solheim might decide to ship them to Norway in a steam ship.
The better news is that, an Impotent Tiger without testicles, cannot reproduce the Next Generation!
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