Dire Consequences When monastics go politics

Mahinda Attanayake

I would like to share my observations on possible outcomes at the coming elections. I hope it will give you at least a foundation to base your arguments and counter arguments against JHU. However, this should not be treated as a reflection of the final results of the election 2004 as the assumptions can vary and may not be accurate. It will give a you an idea about the possible scenarios and the readers' own experiences can be adopted to "fine tune" the results.

For the purpose of this analysis the observations are based on following assumptions.

Two scenarios, i.e. without JHU and with JHU, have been worked out.
An example is :

Galle District. (10 seats)
(A) Results in 2001
UNP - 238989 - 5seats
PA- 232931 - 4 Seats
JVP - 61806- 1 seat
TOTAL - 533726

(B) Projected Results in 2004, as per above assumptions, but without JHU.
UNP - 238989 - 4 seats
UPFA - 294737 - 6 seats
TOTAL - 533726

( C) Projected Results in 2004, as per the above assumptions, with JHU.
UNP - 206965 - 4 seats
UPFA - 262713 - 5 seats
JHU - 64048 - 1 seat
TOTAL - 533726

In essence, If JHU did not contest, UPFA will get 6 seats. Due to JHU intervention, UPFA lost one seat to JHU. UNP seats have not been affected.
However, in some other districts same logic has affected the seats of UNP too. Take Kandy as an example.

Kandy District (12 seats)
(A) Results in 2001
UNP - 314297 - 7seats
PA- 233637 - 4 Seats
JVP - 37146- 1 seat
TOTAL - 585080

(B) Projected Results in 2004, as per above assumptions, but without JHU.
UNP - 314297 - 7 seats
UPFA - 270783 - 5 seats
TOTAL - 585080

( C) Projected Results in 2004, as per the above assumptions, with JHU.
UNP - 279192 - 6 seats
UPFA - 235678 - 5 seats
JHU - 70210 - 1 seat
TOTAL - 585080

So, in Kandy in contrast to Galle, JHU has won one seat at the expense of UNP.

When all seats in all 22 electoral districts are reviewed as per the above calculations and assumptions, the final results line-up is as follows.

2004 without JHU
UNP - 93,
UPFA- 104,
TNA- 23,
SLMC- 5,
Total - 225

2004 with JHU
UNP - 86,
UPFA - 94,
JHU - 17,
TNA -23,
SLMC - 5,
Total - 225

According to this results , it is noted that UPFA cannot form a government even if JHU did not come into fray. They have to get another 9 seats. Even after joining with SLMC they cannot get that number of seats. Only possibility is to get the support of the TNA. To win additional 9 seats on their own, UPFA should increase its vote bank from average 50-55% to around 60 - 62% pushing UNP down to 40 - 38. ( Please note that even just after the assassination of Gamini Dissanayake , virtually without any challenge from UNP, PA managed only 62%, which is the highest percentage in recent history.) It should be noted that to increase one seat in a district, the leading party has to increase their vote share by a large percentage. Again, if we take the example of Galle District, for UPFA to get 7 seats instead of 6, they should receive at least 327000 votes out of 533726 or 61% of the votes. Unless they have a similar trend around the country it is not possible to expect 9 more seats on their own.

However, the interesting point is that with JHU, UPFA has a partner with a combined strength of 111 (UPFA - 94 + JHU 17) which is very close to the required 113 seats, to form a government with out minority parties. Although JHU has extracted 10 seats from UPFA, it has also taken 7 seats from UNP too. UPFA on its own will not be able to get that 7 from UNP unless it increase its vote share to about 60 %. In other words although JHU took 10 seats out of UPFA, it can come back with 17 seats.

That type of agreement between JHU and UPFA will be acceptable to Sinhala Buddhist masses too, as it has a control mechanism in it. CBK cannot do what ever she wants if the JHU has the "King Making" power. They will be a separate entity and can withdraw their support to the government when ever they feel. Patriotic forces in UPFA do not have that ability. We can see PNM has already been swallowed by the Sandhanaya(UPFA). Where is the controlling mechanism over CBK?. What leverage PNM has now in controlling CBK. If patriotic Sinhalese blindly follow the Sandhanaya (UPFA), they will be fooled by our political parties once again as it happened several times in the past. Not only PNM, even JVP will loose its controlling power after the elections.

Therefore , the strategy of UPFA should be, to come to an agreement with JHU to join together after the elections, instead of slandering the maha sangha. This strategy will not work if JHU decided to join UPFA before the elections. JHU is the party capable of extracting votes from UNP, not UPFA. UPFA supporters should realise that reality and treat maha sangha with due respect for that ability.

If not, we can see how the leaders of both sides of the political divide in Sri Lanka go behind Maha Sangha with "atapirikaras" on 3rd April 2004. It is better for the both worlds to do it now! By appointing a commission to inquire and report on the passing away of Ven. Gangodavila Soma thero, the president has indicated that she has understood that reality.