Best thing that can ever happen to Sri Lanka

Kalum Balasuriya

‘Peace talks’ bought no dividends but promises. Never mind about ‘peace talks’ because ‘no war’ situation brought dividends in many folds. Then again, present ‘no war’ situation is a continuation of the ‘no war’ prevailed when peace talks began. Lets make no doubt about it, with or without peace talks, ‘no war’ would have prolonged. In fact it is a natural out come of the ‘Global War’ against terrorism. Had the World Trade Centre attack advanced few more months, the attack on Katunayake airport would never have taken place. This ‘no war’ is a compulsion on LTTE as long as they carry the terrorist tag. Therefore, the party in power has never been a criterion.

Sri Lankan Government hijacked this ‘no war’ situation and mesmerized the Sinhala public that prevailing ‘no war’ is the peace. And, they achieved it through peace talks. LTTE realised the Sri Lankan Government is obsessed with ‘no war’ situation, moreover wanted to continue with peace talks at any cost. As usual, LTTE capitalised this stupid inadequacy to the maximum. They exploited all situations as an opportunity to grab undue advantages. LTTE became so confident, they even withdrew from the ‘peace talks’ and enhanced themselves by consolidating their gain. In this, LTTE Hierarchy were encouraged to entrench their position throughout North and East, little realising that dissent is ripening up within.

Rift among the Tigers is not based on simple disagreements. It is much more complex than that. Perhaps, a superiority complex and the domineering control of Jaffna Tamils could be identified as the route course for this split. In any case, this conflict is not about a simple schism between Karuna and Prabakaran, rather an awareness on discrimination between two people with different mindset. Conflict, though, is not the word: each side charge the other in public, arrest cadres of the other, and guns have begun to aim at each other. The way the things are lining up, it is a contest for elimination.

No dissension is tolerated within the LTTE organisation. Prabhakaran managed to suppress all dissention with ruthless tactics and an iron fist. This time, however, the usual elimination solution will not be so simple as before. At last, Prabhakaran has met his match. Whether he likes it or not, Karuna is no Maathaya. In fact, he has a considerable power base. Karuna has the capacity, ruthlessness and most of all the collaboration of an enthusiastic cadre dedicated to establish an effective, parallel administration very quickly. Resources to promote this brake away faction, has been made available from unlikely sources. Therefore, rebels of the rebels would soon consolidate and adjust themselves to be another self-centred organisation. As for Sri Lankan, this should not be a bad news at all.

The majority of Sri Lankans rejoice this long waited break up, for the split is definitely a setback for the ‘‘Ellamist’. Yet, Norwegians, Bishops, N.G.O cliques and Peace Traders have all become visibly apprehensive. These Tiger supporters are colluding and making every endeavour to patch up the split. As a part of that mission, they have even started to drum up their theories on the negative aspects of the split on the so called ‘peace process’.

However hard they try, peace phobia will not affect the outcome of the power struggle in the south. The memory of the bomb explosions is a thing of the past. On the other hand, all patriotic Sri Lankans consider this rift as a blessing in disguise. Regardless the looming factional war, they appreciate the affects on the political fallout in the Eastern horizon. For one, Batticalore Tamils have freed themselves from the suppression and arrogance of Jaffna Tamils. For another, Muslims no longer could ask for a separate province. In addition to these readymade benefits, all easterners can now dash for an amicable settlement.

Under such circumstances, the decades old demand for a merged ‘Northeast’ province will no longer have any credence hereafter. However, no Jaffna Tamil will ever accept such a scenario willingly, for the east is considered their dominion and an integral part of ‘‘Elam’’. True enough, ‘Elam’ itself makes no sense without the Eastern Province. Therefore, sooner than later, Prabhakan will go all out to annihilate Karuna and his followers. In the meantime, his benefactors such as the Norwegians will do their utmost to dupe our rulers on the benefits of negotiating ‘peace’ with Prabhakaran as the sole representative of all Tamils.

Like the so called Thimpu principles, this sole representative business is nothing but a fallacy. There can be no federal solution, leave alone a democracy under such ideology. It is clear that Prabhakaran will not accept a federal solution because he knows that he cannot survive in a non disordered Sri Lanka. Prabhakaran knows that the shadow of a permanent rope is hanging over his and Pottu Amman’s neck. For one thing, India will never forgive or forget Prabhakaran’s treachery. For their own sake, India will not tolerate a Sri Lanka Province devolving power beyond their own federal units particularly the Tamil Nadu. Therefore, under any settlement, Prabhakan will have to ditch his cohorts and his entire armoury. Worst, he will have to abide by a Sri Lankan constitution and all its undertakings to the International community.

Prabhakan has made a many miscalculations, the most fatal being the assassination of Rajeev Gandhi. India is too proud a nation to let the culprit for that assassination evade punishment forever. No matter what, both Prabakaran and Pottu Amman both will have to face the consequences for that murder. Really, it is not just his luck that kept him a fugitive all this time but the apathy of Sri Lankan rulers. Our rulers are no better than a western bounty hunter. They are so indolent that they can absolve any crime for a petty political gain. One should not be surprised if some of our politicians collude to compromise with the sovereignty of our nation. If this kind of bunch cannot be voted out of parliament at their numbers must be reduced at the first opportunity.

As for us Sri Lankan, we let slip a golden opportunity to eradicate the menace of the LTTE. Had we trusted the Indians and let their army finish the job they grabbed, we could have been a very happy and prosperous nation, today. Opportunist politicians spoiled that chance. Perpetrators for that crime will not be able to wash their sin, how ever much they try.

We must seize this opportunity and capitalize it to the maximum. We need not fight or negotiate with a doomed tyrant, only protect ourselves from his Machiavellian tactics. Our rulers must ponder and beware of the diplomacy of his associates such as Norwegians, Bishops, N.G.O cliques and Peace Traders; for, they all will be up in arms to show our rulers the benefits of negotiating peace with Prabhakaran. Who knows, they might even nominate our Professor to mediate between the sparing Tiger fractions. Historians and psychologists must advise our rulers about the workings of Prabhakaran’s despotic mindset. Then, they will perhaps understand the importance of the idiom “once bitten twice shy”.

Soon, extravagance among the LTTE hierarchy is bound to bring more divide among the northerners themselves. If the current dissent materialised within just two years of no war situation, imagine what it would be like in few more years. Only essential catalyst is the inducement of the value of freedom to the Tamil populace. If we can promote that universal franchise, even the most zealous Ellamist will not be able to escape from the Tiger predicament. The longer the tigers control their domain, more the resentment among the populace. And, more tyrannical they will have to be to suppress upheavals. Prabhakaran is a whiz kid in such repression he will blissfully resort to more oppression. And, democracy will only be a pipedream in the Tiger realm. Tamils in the North will continue to sigh enviously at the flourishing democracy prevail in the south where all races voice their opinion freely. We can watch this scenario in few years. In the mean time let us be vigilant about what the Norwegians, Bishops, N.G.O cliques and Peace Traders will do about Prabhakaran’s quandary.

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