Prabhakaran facing backlash
from his friends abroad
by H. L. D. Mahindapala
Courtesy The Island 18-04-2008
Pro-Tiger media tends to swing erratically from one extreme to another.
When the Tigers are on top they glorify their military advances. When
the Tigers are on the run they swing violently to claim refuge under
human rights with the help, of course, of pro-Tiger NGOs, media and
academia.
Right now they are focusing exclusively on human rights issues, portraying
the Sri Lankan forces as violators of human rights conducting a genocidal,
anti-Tamil war. Desperate for help to halt the advance of the Security
Forces inching their way into Vanni, the pro-Tiger media are now playing
up religious issues, hoping to mobilise world sympathy. The tears shed
by the predominantly Hindu Tigers for Catholic Madhu Church, weeping
about "the spiritual and temporal conquests" (Queroz) of their
land, is as hilarious as the headline of the TamilNet: "Lanka ploy
of Buddhists for subversive acts in Tamil Nadu". (7/4/2008).
Underlying this propaganda thrust is the subtle line of equating the
Tamil Tigers with the Tamil community. Any defeat of the Tigers is projected
as a defeat for the Tamils. This propaganda also assumes that the Tigers
are the sole representatives of the Tamils. Neither is accepted by the
frustrated and disillusioned Tamil community, let alone the world at
large. In the early days, when the Tigers were patronised as "boys"
by the Tamil community, this would have been valid up to a point. But
not now when the Tigers are fighting with their backs to wall.
Despite the brutalities of the Tigers the Tamil community was willing
to go along with the Tigers as long as they showed signs of winning
concessions from the Sri Lankan government. But the fall of the east
and the slow but steady advance into Vanni have wiped out the last rationale
that propped up the Tigers. Except for the decreasing hard core Tigers,
the rest of the Tamil diaspora and independent analysts can see the
writing on the wall. Jane’s Weekly summed it up neatly when it
said that the Tigers are as good as dead unless they can stage a decisive
military reversal.
The Tigers who were threatening an apocalyptic end if their position
in the north and the east was threatened have gone from toning down
their rhetoric to studied silence. Of course, they hit back with counter-productive
suicide bombers. But this is not going to win them territory, international
sympathy or military successes that can rally their forces, particularly
in the diaspora, to lift their image as a formidable force that can
deliver the promise of the elusive Eelam. So what is Prabhakaran fighting
for?
The battle cry of the Tigers now is not so much to defeat "the
Sinhala government" militarily as to "stop the war" through
external pressures for Prabhakaran to breathe easy. This explains why
Vaiko, the hired Indian agent of Prabhakaran, is running around almost
begging on his knees for foreign intervention to stop the war. He has
appealed to the European Union and to Norway.
Rather late in the day Vaiko, leader of Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra
Kazagam (MDMK), has pleaded with Erik Solheim, the failed peace negotiator,
to revive the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA). This was a lifeline thrown
by Ranil Wickremesinghe, the then (February 22, 2002) Prime Minister,
to save Prabhakaran. But, predictably, Prabhakaran, assuming an invincibility
that he does not posses, undercut the ground on which he was standing
safely by violating 95% of its terms and conditions. He reached the
peak of his power when the international community, together with Wickremesinghe,
handed him the north and the east on the CFA platter. But his megalomania,
intransigence, hatred of his perceived enemies (both Tamil and Sinhalese)
and, above all, inability to read the political realities, have gone
as far as they could and are now coming home to roost. After wasting
all the opportunities that came his way to consolidate his position
politically he is now left with no friends to rescue him.
Prabhakaran’s track record confirms that he can be relied upon
to do only one thing for sure: dig his own grave. No Tamil leader has
yet beaten his unique record of being his own enemy and that of the
Tamils. He has also excelled in piling up and standing on the peak of
the highest mountain of dead bodies of Tamils. It is most unlikely that
any other Tamil rival is likely to surpass his record in the future.
He stands out as the most gruesome and horripilating undertaker of the
Tamil community in Sri Lanka. No wonder The New York Times and The Hindu
(Chennai) have labelled him as the Pol Pot of Asia.
Going by his own logic and commitment, he has a future only if he can
get his elusive Eelam. But, after three decades of killing and hitting
in all directions to achieve his goal, he is nowhere near his Eelam;
nor has he found any backers internationally, despite the labours of
his dwindling diaspora. So what is he fighting for? Isn’t he fighting
purely for his own survival and that of his fascist regime armed with
a ruthless killing machine – the only political system that can
protect and sustain him? He cannot and will not enter the democratic
stream for fear of exposing him to his Tamil enemies waiting for the
day to get even with him for the crimes he has committed against the
Tamils. Besides, he is not attuned to live in competitive politics where
he has to give equal space to his Tamil rivals. He can survive precariously
only in a fascist dictatorship with him running it as a one-man show.
So what does the future hold for him and the Tamils who have pinned
their hopes on him?
The new spectre haunting him is the international trend rising against
him from unexpected quarters. It was spelt out by Jon Hanssen-Bauer,
Norway’s Special Envoy for the failed peace process in Sri Lanka,
at the conference organised by the Art of Living Foundation of Indian
spiritual guru Sri Sri Ravi Shankar held last week on Oslo. Participants
at the conference quoted him as saying: 1) "Norway will not support
the establishment of Eelam", according to Jayalath Jayawardene,
UNP, MP ; (2) "Norway will not be able to help in negotiations
as long as the war rages on," according to Arumugan Thondaman,
a Minister in the present government.
The third point was stated Hanssen-Bauer: No 'externally designed solution'
will end Sri Lanka's dragging ethnic conflict….. ‘One should
not be tempted to try to impose an externally designed solution to conflicts
but assist the parties in defining a domestic one…..The common
understanding between the government and the LTTE (Liberation Tigers
of Tamil Eelam) has been that talks are aimed at finding a political
solution that is acceptable to all communities in Sri Lanka,' Hanssen-Bauer
told the two-day conference. (IANS – April 13 – 14, 2008).
Hearing these statements Prabhakaran might as well say: "Et tu
Brute!" These are statements that the Norwegians never uttered
before when they were in the peace process. These statements may end
their ever coming back into the peace process because Prabhakaran is
not likely to take these comments kindly. Leaving the Norwegian stand
aside, it can be asserted that Prabhakaran’s future hangs essentially
on the role of India, more so because Norway, too, is playing India’s
game and is depended on India to define Norway’s role in Sri Lanka.
It is not surprising that Norway is coming out against Eelam because
that is also India’s position. India doesn’t want to go along
with this proposition for both domestic and regional interests.
Besides, a new factor has entered the equation with Nepal swinging
to the Maoists. India is deeply worried that the unexpected swing to
the Maoists will upset India’s interests in the region. India is
already facing a hostile Pakistan and Kashmir in the west and a not-so-friendly
Bangladesh in the east. In the north, India will keep its fingers crossed
despite Prachand, the Maoist leader, saying that he will keep an equal
distance between China and India. From a point of geo-political strategy,
with pressures mounting from east, west and the north, India has to
keep its southern neighbour, Sri Lanka, on its side. In fact, it can
be argued that India will need Sri Lanka more than Sri Lanka needing
India, if things go sour in Nepal.
With Tibet on the boil and with China claiming a huge chunk of India’s
Arunachal Pradesh in the east – reviving memories of the Indo-China
war over the McMahon line – unfolding events may be put on hold
by China till the Beijing Olympics are over by September. It is also
on the cards that both China and India will be vying for an influential
place in Nepal. The pressures are bound to mount after the Olympics.
The emerging regional politics will not favour Prabhakaran, who has
been accused by the Indian media of helping the Maoists with training
and equipment. Maoists, too, have admitted getting help from the Tigers.
It is unlikely that the Maoists will reciprocate in kind. But if they
do, overtly or covertly, it will add to India’s woes. Sri Lankan
diplomacy, too, will have to be activated more vigorously in Khatmandu
and in Beijing – a centre that will have increasing influence over
the Maoists.
So where does all this leave Prabhakaran? He is hemmed in from all
sides with no escape route. As things stand, he must be the only one
who is forced to reject the common belief that there is a silver lining
in dark clouds.
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