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AFTERMILITARY DEFEAT TAMIL TIGERS COULD BECOME A TRANS NATIONAL CRIMINAL EMPIRE SAYS CANADIAN RESEARCH PAPER

By Walter Jayawardhana

John C. Thompson, the President of the Mackenzie Institute in Toronto , Canda, said in a research paper that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) after its possible military defeat at the hands of the Sri Lanka Army could morph into a major trans-national criminal empire and all those countries who allowed them to operate could now pay a high price for having done so.

The Mackenzie paper said, “Considering the origins of the LTTE and main source of funding for the last 25 years, much of their international apparatus could very easily morph into a major trans-national criminal empire. For Sri Lankans, there might be some perverse comfort in this – all those nations that let the Tigers operate somewhat freely for many years will now pay a higher price for having done so.”

The paper further said, “Ironically, the end of the Tiger insurgency in Sri Lanka might well strengthen their hold on Diaspora communities.”

The paper focusing on what could come after the military defeat of the Tigers said, the organized criminal empire of the LTTE among the Diaspora communities has been carefully focused on supporting the Tigers on Sri Lanka. “ Police officers in Western Europe, Canada and Australia who monitor Tamil organized crime have seen little sign of pro-Tiger community leaders living the high life usually associated with organized crime leaders. But narcotics, "War-Taxes", smuggling, and other enterprises generate a lot of money and pay for the Tiger’s political apparatus. Those activists are unlikely to want to seek honest work.”

The report declared , that first, the defeat of their guerrilla forces and the loss of their sanctuary areas might not end the violence. There will always be room for a conventional terrorist campaign until the appearance of a new opportunity to create guerrilla units. As usual, their first focus might continue to be the elimination of outspoken Tamils who feel the best hope for their people lies within the law and the Sri Lankan political system.

Declaring that LTTE might not declare a dignified defeat the report said, “Instead the Tigers appear to be about to retreat into the comforting myth of a spiritual victory as an alternative to a physical defeat.”

The report further said, “On November 27th, 2008, the Tiger apparatus abroad is expected to celebrate their movement’s "Heroes Day". Prabahakaran will probably deliver his usual radio address. It might be via an audiotape this time lest an Air Force smart bomb has his name chalked on the casing if he shows up at a radio station. There is going to be another change to the LTTE’s usual observances. The word is already circulating through the leadership of the Diaspora that this year’s Heroes Day theme is to be "Our land might be taken, but our aspiration cannot be defeated."

With certainty the paper predicted, “ Now, after decades of warfare, the 25-year old Tiger guerrilla force is facing defeat, and what comes next may reveal even more of the character of the movement behind them.”

On the ominous future of the LTTE leader Prabhakaran the report said, “As a secretive man with a carefully crafted persona, a quasi-public life with restrictions on his movement will probably not be to his liking. Staying in Sri Lanka, however, would mean dodging from refuge to refuge with a designated task-force hunting him; and there might only be one ending to that story.”

The report said, “ After 25 years, the Sri Lankan military has the tools; technology and leadership it needs to finally defeat the LTTE’s guerrilla forces. Sanctuary areas on the Island that have long been held by the Tigers have fallen. The Tigers’ legendary bunker complexes in the jungle have been exposed by new sensor systems and blasted open by smart bombs. The unofficial LTTE capital, the town of Killinochi- not withstanding claims that it is a "Tamil Stalingrad" could soon fall; and whole areas of Sri Lanka have been free of LTTE attacks for months.”

The report added, “There are ominous signs that the Tiger leadership recognizes that the writing is on the wall for their guerrilla forces in the field and the sanctuary areas they have long held.”

But in a warning to the Canadians the report said, “As for the Canadian government, if the Tamils who arrived here from Sri Lanka are ever to be Canadians rather than Tiger supporters in exile, then the power of the LTTE’s fronts will have to be broken. Moreover, given the international diversity of our organized criminal societies”



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