Assassination of Rajapaksha Will Derail All the Victories
Posted on August 16th, 2009
Dilrook Kannangara
How fragile Sri Lanka is to separatist attacks is best seen from the miracles that brought Rajapaksha to power. He has turned the biggest problem faced by the nation upside down. His wise thinking and leadership has helped the country overcome many challenges. There is no comparable to him; there never was in post-1948 history. However, all his victories can be easily ruined by getting rid of him. Tigers and their intimate regressive partners are hell-bent on killing him. There is said to be a female suicide bomber lurking around Colombo, a bomb was found buried in the ground where the President attended a rally and a Sinhala individual was arrested for plotting to kill the President. As the saying goes, they need to be lucky only once and chances are that they will be lucky soon unless the President takes his security seriously.
ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ At the moment he is conducting like President Premadasa in 1993. He may be unaware that people donƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢t value cheap popularity anymore. Having won the war, they want a visible improvement in their economy. That is the way to win them over, not by embracing them or visiting them. WhatƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s the point of a king embracing his people if the people are living in poverty? The pompous of war victory has already faded away and Tigers are plotting revenge.
ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Risk to the PresidentƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s life has been there for a long time. However, now it is very special. General elections are due early next year. Whether the President lives or not, a General election will be held within six months. This six month period is crucial for the nation and the ruling party. If the President cannot make it alive, it will be a total disaster for his party as his party has no one of note to take over. Immediately following the death of the President the ruling coalition is going to collapse. The SLFP, JHU and NFF together only have a minority of seats in parliament. Their numbers are clearly less than 113; around 85. UNP MPs and CWC, UPF and SLMC MPs who joined the government on President RajapakshaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s capabilities will leave the next day. The fallout of the ruling party is a big boon for the Opposition. The main Opposition party, the UNP in recent times has unfortunately shown a strong allegiance to the LTTE and the Elam movement. They could be very easily manipulated to get Tiger jobs done as in 2001/2002.
ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ The powerful Defence Secretary and the Chief of Defence Staff incumbent Sarath Fonseka can be changed at will by the new President. They always drew importance from the leadership of the President and their withdrawal from the defence establishment is the end of Sri LankaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s comprehensive defence plan. Instead the likes not worthy of a mention will takeover. These sections will be heavily financed by the LTTE Diaspora as it knows that these power greedy and weak elements are their only hope.
ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Has the President secured any constitutional, legal and other changes that will make the victories permanent? Not at all. This makes Rajapaksha easily eliminated without a trace. He has promised a political solution after his re-election. Probably the Presidential election would take place after December this year. If he dies before that, he is leaving nothing permanent behind him.
ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ Considering all these immense dangers, the President must take extreme care to avoid cheap popularity tricks and public appearances only for six months. He must believe that people value his actions more than his physical presence in public. LTTE leader survived five (5) Sri Lankan leaders thanks to his avoidance of public appearances. He was a bigger hero than the President who died on the road prematurely when it comes to providing leadership to followers. Hopefully Rajapaksha will be governed by intelligence than a false sense of bravery which is actually inanity.
ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ The assassination of President Premadasa completely devastated the UNP and threw in a whole new band of leaders with very strong views favouring Elamists. The fallout in the UNP is still continuing. Sensible avoidance would have saved him.
ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ It is the duty of all those who are around Rajapaksha to keep him away from public appearances as much as possible for six months. This sacrifice must be made in the best interests of the nation. Sri Lanka has lost 2 topmost leaders within 34 years; one in 1959 and the other in 1993. That is one leader every 17 years. Since 1993, it is 17 years to 2010! IsnƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢t it that time again! It is a tragicomedy if the victorious President dies like a coward on the road.
August 16th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
Dilrook is quite right. The President must not, and need not expose himself so much. It is the reality however sad it is.
August 17th, 2009 at 12:20 am
I am a bit surprised by this article though I had a very positive feeling on many of articles written by Dilrook. For Sinhala people, unworkable one-man rule was dead and buried a long time ago when they started using sacrificial lambs (Obamas) for the top job a few millennia ago though there are a few individuals today carrying the English man’s burden pretending to be not so. I cannot understand the reason for putting all the eggs in a single basket (I meant an individual). Though I am not concerned about who leads the dysfunctional colonial establishment, if we dismantle the whole set up and send all those shareholders to hell, sooner the better for our future. When it happens, there is no need to panic, as Sinhala people will be introduced to a new world by their own capable people. As a supporter of Sinhala people, I do not understand why we have to sympathise with those unworthy lot who disappeared from the country including the dead who have done an immense damage to Sinhala people. Those who benefit from Sinhala goodwill should never even think of betraying them if they have a bit of historical knowledge. It is a testing time for Rajapaksa clan and their survival will depend on what they do in the near future. Whether it is short or long, I hope, Rajapaksa clan is the last of the willing to carry the burden of this dysfunctional outfit near its natural death. Though there are many who believe in fate or Karma to analyse many deaths that occurred in our long history, it is my understanding that they were delivered to deserving people at the right time as per a schedule. Obviously there are some overdue deliveries. If Rajapaksa clan does what they are trying to do behind the back of Sinhala people, it is very likely for them to share the same fate befallen on SWRD, little black English man modelled in English value system, who tried to deceive Sinhala people by parroting Sinhala words written using English letters and cheap populism.
Death is not something that we cannot avoid when it is due for whatever reason. If someone behaves like seeking death, it may a result of making him or her mad before destruction (just think of VP). When you are in the limelight by accident, you may wonder what could have happened if you were not around. Rajapaksa clan had a very good opportunity to make a significant contribution to the good of humanity if they acted wisely. Unfortunately, their social, political and ethnic baggage combined with the natural heritage that we all share has left them lurking in the twilight zone for a while. It seems they have lost the chance of defeating their own Karma. I will be one of those who would not worry too much about any eventuality facing Rajapaksa clan as there is always a better way out for Sinhala people. We should not underestimate the intellectual resources that were put together to form the oldest civilisation outside the wild. Though beneficiaries, we may be nobodies babbling like babies compared to their thinking and planning that gave birth to the long-lasting Sinhala civilisation.
August 17th, 2009 at 4:19 am
Mr. Dilrook Kannangara is very smart in figuring the consequences of a National disaster by a LTTE bomber. However I am confused by Raj’s idea. He sems to be a disgruntled capitalist. Mr. Rajapaksa should take into account the fact that though he is doing a great deal for Sri Lanka, many Western Nations would like to see him replaced by Traitors and Puppets like Ranil Wickramasinghe. He should remember that the only way for Western Nations to florish in their Capitalistic way is to exploit poor nations and make a dependant and captive society to sell their products to. Mr. Rajapaksa should watch out for plots by these interested Western Powers who will promote or encourage any means to get rid of him.