LANKA WEB ELECTION FORECAST 96.05% ACCURATE
Posted on January 29th, 2010
By M D P DISSANAYAKE. FCMA, CPA, PhD
The Lanka Web on its website published an article on 24 January 2010, ( two days prior to the date of the election) predicting the election results under the caption of ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ…-Forecast results of Presidential ElectionƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”š‚. The article contained geographical and statistical analysis of the most probable outcome. The complete text of the writerƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s article could still be found in this website.
The last paragraph of the writerƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s article is re-produced here for easy reference: ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ…-With these assumptions, Sivaji, SF and MR are likely to score 3.2%, 35.4% and 61.4% respectively with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”š‚. The President Mahinda Rajapakse has scored 57.8% according to final official results thus Lanka Web forecast was 96.05% accurate
January 31st, 2010 at 4:11 am
Many of the LANKA WEB contirbutors & commenters correctly predicted the election results. I have been commenting on a 60/40 split since the emergence of Sarath Fonseka as the oppostion candidate. My last comment about election results was on the following article.
” Vote massively to elect President Rajapaksa for a second term” by Ratnapala on 25/01/2010″
On 26/01/2010 at 4.44 am, my comments were as follows.
MR 59 %
SF 40 %
Others 1 %
My sample was 200, but I did not use any specific questions about the election, I did not use yes/no answers and at all times I tried to read the heart of the person. (My motto is “Mouth is the mirror of the heart”)
My sample population came from street of Sri Lanka and from those I phoned when I am living out of of Sri Lanka. It was a random selection. Now I realise that casual conversation is better than highly planned questions of trained statisticians. From October 2009, I found that Mahinda Rajapaksa was supported by 60% of the population. I was quoting a 60/40 split since the arrival of Sarath Fonseka. In future I intend to use a largers sample in all of my polls. I have decided to name my poll as “ARAVINDA HEARTBEAT POLL” and will be active in coming elections.
I will not announce the POLL outcome until two hours before voting starts.
Mr. Dissanayaka, if you are like me, you could be mad about numbers. If you have time please read the following two books. ( unless you have already enjoyed them.)
Black Swan & Fooled by Randomness , both by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. They both have earned the honour of joining my bedside reading.