What is the best tactical move to safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka given the geopolitical forces that currently menace us?
Posted on April 14th, 2013
R Chandrasoma
ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ The conventional thinking is that threats to our survival are rooted in politics and that effective strategies to thwart such dangers must necessarily be of a political nature – in the wise choice of external relations or revamped internal moves to appease or mollify the discontented within.
This is standard thinking but it does not apply when dangers are imminent and our enemies sense weakness . It is clear – even obvious – that our enemies will use the famous and time-tested tactic of fomenting rebellion by giving all encouragement to minorities with declared discontents.
Indeed this strategy begins by weakening the regime in power and making the idea of regime-change a public obsession. If this move is successful, a climate is built up where rebellion by defeated and disaffected minorities becomes a real possibility – the point at which there is a political phase-shift with external enemies giving logistical and moral support to the rebellious elements.
This will be followed by a flow of arms that will spell the end of Sri Lanka as a free nation. Needless to say, this scenario will be a painful replay of what is happening in many parts of the world at this very moment. Indeed, it is the New Imperial Strategy that has, effectively, ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”neutralizedƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ rising Asian Powers such as Egypt.
The politically naive might hypothesize that our ‘friends’ – China or Pakistan, for example. will help us when we are in deep trouble. The fact of the matter is that when a rebellion turns into an internal armed conflict between supposedly indigenous forces, no sane nation will help us – certainly not the Chinese.
As for India. it is almost certain that the Indians will help the rebels. How, then, can we guard against this cancer of foreign-aided rebellion in an Island-Nation such as Sri Lanka? It has been famously said that power grows out of the barrel of a gun. The sovereign remedy for the political ills and external ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”infectionsƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ that menace us is to build up our armed forces to meet future foreign-assisted ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”venturesƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ in much the same way as an enlightened leadership and a valiant Army destroyed the seemingly invincible Prabhakaran.
Any major threat to Sri Lanka in the near future will be through the use of arms by traitors within and enemies abroad. The need of the hour is to boost our naval coast-guard and to expand the highly trained Special Forces with extra battle-ready units. In the clamor over devolution and ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”restorationƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ of rights, is it surprising that withdrawal of our armed forces from the North and East is the the constantly repeated refrain?
This ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”demilitarizationƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ is the sine qua non for ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”freedom strugglesƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ that will ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”morphƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ into armed insurrection with delighted foreigners providing supporting arms to the would-be destroyers of Sri Lanka.
We are fortunate in having a patriotic leadership that understands the dangers we face. We must view with dismay the attempts by ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”bogus nationalistsƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ to undermine the authority of what they pejoratively refer to the ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”Rajapakse regimeƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢. A replacement will be the first step on the long and heart-breaking road to political anarchy and surrender.
April 14th, 2013 at 7:07 pm
Thanks. A timely reminder to keep our armed forces alert and up to date.
Some big fellow in the Army said recently “we are gradually transforming army to pre 1980 era” or something similar.
That appears absolutely stupid- hopefully he is trying to fool the enemy.
April 14th, 2013 at 8:10 pm
A good analysis. However, overemphasis on the Rajapakse rule is a fallacy as the rulers don’t seem to have realized this plot. Almost all large army and navy camps have been removed from civilian areas (most likely rebellion areas) in the Jaffna peninsula which is the hotbed of anti-Sri Lanka ideologies and violence. This allows for the free flow of weapons to the peninsula where anti-government sentiments are very high. I would not discount the likelihood of India already supplying weapons to Tamil groups in Jaffna. Troop deployment from far away places is difficult and expensive against small groups of rebels operating on home turf.
Economic upliftment of the faithful is a must for the government to avoid regime change rebellions. Unfortunately the Rajapakses have failed very badly in this regard too. Minorities are the biggest gainers after 2009 at the expense of the majority. Task of the present government is easy because there is a clear correlation between the voting pattern (2004, 2005 and 2010) and ethnic groups.
I also agree with the argument that China and Pakistan will never fight our battles (unless it affects their interests). Depending on armed forces alone is inadequate in externally enforced regime change operations. These external forces are very likely to have a sizable section of the armed forces in their bag already, particularly after the 1962 event, General Janaka Perera, General Algama and Fonseka incidents.
A 1989 style pro-government paramilitary arming mechanism must be kept handy that relies on political activists faithful to the government in addition to regular forces. They can unleash unsurmountable resistance to any minority group outside the north-east without having to deploy the army. Their conduct is self-financing which relieves the government coffers. Given the incidents of 1958, 1971, 1977, 1983 and 1989, it is a very likely tool within the array of options of any Lankan government in desperate times (needing desperate measures).
While a government change through a vote is likely in 2015 or earlier (unless the government shifts the current economic imbalance in favour of the majority), rebellions and regime change initiatives are not likely to succeed. Given the worsening polarisation along ethnicity after 2009, any regime change will be more devastating in Lanka than any comparable event in the Middle East.
April 14th, 2013 at 9:12 pm
Profitable foreign investments of a consortia of foreign countries (not just India) will make countries think twice about invading and damaging their investments and becoming unpopular with rich and influential businesspeople in their countries.
April 15th, 2013 at 3:28 am
Good analysis. The best tactical and practical move is get the Sinhalese to think straight without blindly believing in isms and myths, but to resort to evidence based thinking. Time to follow intelligent adaptive behaviour. We appear to be holding the tigers tail, come what may. Even Indians have released the tigers tail!
April 15th, 2013 at 7:10 am
. I would not discount the likelihood of India already supplying weapons to Tamil groups in Jaffna !
first step – 13 a completed
second step- NP electin in Sep 2013 (MR aggred)
third step – Kachchatheevu liberation ( groud work completed by last vist of Indiaa ministers )
four step – Eelam war V !
Modaya always modaya !!!
April 15th, 2013 at 6:01 pm
sak – how come your initials fit with the acronym for the derogatory term? is it a coincidence? keep us entertaining buddy.
April 19th, 2013 at 1:31 pm
Sunil, its Sak Lingam!