{"id":102488,"date":"2020-05-18T16:24:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-18T23:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=102488"},"modified":"2020-05-18T16:24:00","modified_gmt":"2020-05-18T23:24:00","slug":"covid-19-international-and-domestic-challenges-await-sri-lanka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2020\/05\/18\/covid-19-international-and-domestic-challenges-await-sri-lanka\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19: International and domestic challenges await Sri Lanka"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Asanga Abeyagoonasekera*<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n

We\u2019re going to turn it around. And we have the cards,\ndon\u2019t forget it. We are like a piggy bank that\u2019s being robbed. We have the\ncards. We have a lot of power with China\u201d<\/em>[i]<\/em><\/a> President <\/em>Donald J. Trump during the 2016 election\ncampaign. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Donald Trump was elected on a\nplatform challenging long-standing American foreign policy premises with a\nparticular criticism of US – China relations. Tensions in the US – China\nrelationship exacerbated due to Trump\u2019s continuous rhetoric and action during\nhis Presidency reminding the American polity that China\u2019s rise as a global\npower was not beneficial to the US on economic and security domains. In the\neconomic front, China\u2019s protectionist regulations, non-transparency,\nintellectual property theft and economic cyber espionage has escalated towards\na tense trade war and a national security threat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s economic dominance as the global\nmanufacturing hub, providing financial assistance to many developing nations whilst\nexpanding its tentacles towards the entire world through the Belt and Road\ninitiative to AIIB has changed the geopolitical landscape in Asia. The tense US\n– China relationship which is at direct risk of a military confrontation is located\nin four geographical locations in Asia – the Korean peninsula, Taiwan,\nSenkaku\/Diaoyu islands and the South China Sea. Protecting vital US interests\nand regional allies and friends from its liberal order established since the Second\nWorld War is at the core of US foreign policy. President Richard Nixon\u2019s invitation\nto China in the 1970s of a diplomatic, economic and security partnership to\nsecure US military presence in Asia was a geostrategic manoeuvre to draw China\naway from the Soviet orbit. This helped to strengthen US interest in the region\nto protect its allies and to end the Cold War three decades ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s Mask Diplomacy to Wolf Warrior Diplomacy<\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, thirty years after the Cold War, a\nPandemic has triggered another cold war between the US and China, with US\naccusing China of a form of biological warfare. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo\naccused China stating that there was enormous evidence\u201d supporting the claim\nadding there is a significant amount of evidence that this came from that\nlaboratory in Wuhan\u2026. I think the whole world can see now, remember, China has\na history of infecting the world and running substandard laboratories.\u201d[ii]<\/a> Chinese media, responding to this direct accusation states,\nIf evil politicians like Pompeo continue to lie and bluff, then the Americans\n\u2018becoming great again\u2019 can only be seen as a joke.\u201d[iii]<\/a> Previously on social media, Chinese diplomat Zhao\nLijian strongly signalled their anger with the assertion that the coronavirus\nwas a bioweapon used by American soldiers. China is carrying out wolf\nwarrior<\/em> diplomacy[iv]<\/a>, retaliating\naggressively and responding with firmness than never before while carrying out\nits soft power mask diplomacy<\/em> \u2013 a term employed for millions\nof masks donated with medical equipment. The dual diplomatic postures have\nincreased Chinese soft diplomacy and power projection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China, as part of its mask diplomacy,<\/em> provided\nmedical equipment and a concessionary loan of US$ 500 million with a repayment term\nof 10 years, to assist Sri Lanka in its fight against COVID19. This will increase\nthe island\u2019s existing debt profile with China and will certainly increase\nfuture borrowing from China due to unavoidable external shocks from the global\nrecession. China, was seen by Anil Jai Singh as the first off the block to\ncapitalize on the vulnerabilities created by the spread of this pandemic. It\nhas reached out to nations and offered support that obviously comes with\nstrings attached. While there has been some pushback against coercive debt-trap\ndiplomacy, the ability of the poorer or smaller nations to avoid succumbing to\nChinese pressure will depend on the alternatives available\u201d.[v]<\/a> According to IMF, Sri Lanka\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio is\n82.7% one of the highest ratios in South Asia. The Economist [vi]<\/a> in its \u2018Which Emerging Markets are in Most Financial\nPeril?\u2019 statics recently ranked Sri Lanka at 61, a significantly reduced\nposition compared to a few other South Asian nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Domestic challenges and strategic alignments <\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Months after President Gotabaya Rajapaksa\u2019s\nappointment in November 2019, he was to prove his leadership to a significant\nexternal humanitarian crisis from a global pandemic. Similarly, his brother\nMahinda Rajapaksa faced a devastating humanitarian crisis after being appointed\nPrime Minister in 2004 – the Indian Ocean tsunami that took almost 35,000 lives\nin Sri Lanka. Rajapaksa proved his leadership skills managing the challenge\nwhich eventually won him the Presidency in 2005. His brother Gotabaya, demonstrated\nhis leadership contributing his military expertise, efficiently coordinating\nwith armed forces, the police, intelligence and healthcare officials. Sri Lanka\nis the second-best in the region for COVID19 testing (graph) and perhaps the\nbest in contact tracing with a low rate of death under 10. It appears as if the\n\u2018Rajapaksa decision-making\u2019 works well in a crisis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Among powerful nations, China provided one of\nthe most substantial donations back then for the Tsunami affected island. Similarly,\nChina was the first to step in to assist in this emergency. Behind the crisis,\na tense geopolitical storm is brewing between the US and China. Crises usually\naccelerate geopolitical fissures, drawing out underlying pre-existing\ngeopolitical fault lines and building strategic partnerships and alignments\namong like-minded nations. This was how the Quad (India, Japan, US and\nAustralia) was created in 2004 after the Asian Tsunami. In the present day, as\nexplained by Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan \u2018The United States has stepped up\ndiplomatic consultations for cooperation with a geographically diverse group of\ncountries, which has now been dubbed the Quad-Plus<\/a> as it includes South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand\nin addition to the original Quad. China\u2019s actions are making this cooperation\neasier.\u2019[vii]<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new grouping with like-minded countries\nwill play a strategic role in the Indo-Pacific. Recently, US National Security\nAdvisor Robert O\u2019Brien conveyed US support to Sri Lanka \u2018to provide much-needed\nventilators\u2019 and recognizing \u2018Sri Lanka is an important part of a free and open\nIndo-Pacific region.\u2019[viii]<\/a> How will\nSri Lanka face this new strategic alignment and manage its Chinese sphere of\ninfluence? Sri Lanka\u2019s erudite Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar noted in\n2004, China has never sought to influence the domestic politics of Sri Lanka\u201d claiming\nthat the country has never tried to dominate, undermine or destabilize Sri\nLanka. China has never tried to strike a quick bargain in a crisis. There have\nbeen no strings attached to Chinese aid\u201d.[ix]<\/a>  Nearly\ntwo decades following this statement, China\u2019s interest and its role in the\nIndian Ocean has evolved with strength due to the tense geopolitical\natmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Countering the Chinese infrastructure\ndiplomacy in the Indian Ocean with alternative options are already afloat by\nthe western allies. As explained by Hudson scholar Satoru Nagao Bangladesh has\nalready chosen Japan\u2019s Martabali port project instead of China\u2019s Sonadia port\nproject. If the Trincomalee Port project\u2014involving Japanese assistance\u2014in Sri\nLanka succeeds, then the importance of China\u2019s Hambantota port will decline.\nSimilarly, the Chabahar Port project in Iran can mitigate the importance of the\nChinese Gwadar Port in Pakistan.\u201d Further, to strengthen the western grip in\nMalacca Straits, India is modernizing infrastructure to deploy warships and\nplanes in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. [x]<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strategic relations established by President\nMahinda Rajapaksa with the arrival of President Xi Jinping to the Island in\n2014 will continue strongly under the current Presidency in a more complex setting.\nWith Geopolitical Cold War 2.0 and domestic economic strain, President Gotabaya\nRajapaksa has the two daunting challenges ahead of him. He would have to\nnavigate global shocks and balance the country\u2019s internal political challenges\nwithin a squeezed economy. As explained by LKY Professor Razeen Sally, the\npresent environment of unstable and contested geopolitics revolving around\ncompetition is going to squeeze global trade and globalization. Domestic malign\nmercantilism with more state intervention and restricted markets will see a\ndifferent kind of capitalism coming out of this pandemic [xi]<\/a>. Sri Lanka should foresee this danger to avoid malign\nmercantilism drifting towards losing liberal values. The nation has to balance\nits foreign policy, protecting its liberal democratic values and its important\nrelationship with China amid a geopolitical storm. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

End Notes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

 [i]<\/a> https:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/USA\/Politics\/2016\/0502\/Should-Trump-be-using-rape-to-describe-US-China-relations<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[ii]<\/a> https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2020\/05\/04\/pompeo-continues-china-blame-game\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[iii]<\/a> China\u2019s National Radio https:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/world\/united-states-canada\/article\/3082665\/china-has-history-infecting-world-us-secretary<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[iv]<\/a> Wolf Worrier Diplomacy,\nhttps:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/chinas-wolf-warrior-diplomats-show-teeth-in-defending-virus-response\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[v]<\/a> Anil Jai Singh,\nhttps:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2020\/05\/the-quad-and-the-pandemic-a-lost-opportunity\/ <\/p>\n\n\n\n

[vi]<\/a> Economist, https:\/\/www.economist.com\/briefing\/2020\/05\/02\/which-emerging-markets-are-in-most-financial-peril<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[vii]<\/a> https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/blog\/pandemic-and-china-are-strengthening-us-india-relations-now<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[viii]<\/a> O\u2019Brien \u2018National Security Council\u2019, @WHNSC twitter\nmessage,\nhttps:\/\/www.newsfirst.lk\/2020\/05\/09\/us-national-security-advisor-calls-on-president-gotabaya-rajapaksa\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[ix]<\/a> Quoted in J Dhanapala and J Goonaratne, \u2018Sri\nLanka:China as a growth of modernization\u2019 in a resergent China:South Asia\nperspectives, eds S.D.Muni and Tan Tai Young( London Routledge 2012) pp\n245-6. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

[x]<\/a> Satoru Nagao, Hudson, https:\/\/www.hudson.org\/research\/14402-countering-china-in-the-indo-pacific<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xi]<\/a> Razeen Sally LKY School online discussion Asia\nThinker Series 6th May 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* This piece was initially\npublished by the Observer Research Foundation(ORF) New Delhi. <\/em>https:\/\/www.orfonline.org\/expert-speak\/sri-lanka-facing-geopolitics-of-covid-19-to-cold-war-2-0-66169\/<\/em><\/a> <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera is the\nauthor of \u2018Sri Lanka at Crossroads\u2019 (WorldScientific, Singapore).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

He was the former Director\nGeneral at the national security think tank INSSSL under the Ministry of\nDefence and former Executive Director at the foreign policy think tank LKIIRSS\nunder the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Sri Lanka. He can be contacted at\nasangaaa@gmail.com<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Asanga Abeyagoonasekera* We\u2019re going to turn it around. And we have the cards, don\u2019t forget it. We are like a piggy bank that\u2019s being robbed. We have the cards. We have a lot of power with China\u201d[i] President Donald J. Trump during the 2016 election campaign. President Donald Trump was elected on a platform challenging […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[164],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-102488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asanga-abeyagoonasekera"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102488"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102488\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}