{"id":106472,"date":"2020-09-10T14:15:16","date_gmt":"2020-09-10T21:15:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=106472"},"modified":"2020-09-10T14:15:16","modified_gmt":"2020-09-10T21:15:16","slug":"foreign-relations-in-the-context-of-geopolitics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2020\/09\/10\/foreign-relations-in-the-context-of-geopolitics\/","title":{"rendered":"FOREIGN RELATIONS in the CONTEXT of GEOPOLITICS"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Neville Ladduwahetty courtesy Island<\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n

The Additional Secretary to\nthe President for Foreign Relations, Admiral Prof. Jayanath Colombage in an\ninterview stated: <\/strong>The foreign policy of the new government is based on some key\npillars. The number one is neutrality. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has\nrepeatedly stated in Sri Lanka and India and in his interaction with the press\nand the diplomatic community, that his primary responsibility is maintaining\nneutrality. We don\u2019t want to be labelled or get caught in this power game\n(Daily Mirror, January 28, 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, expanding on the above policy in\nhis current position as Foreign Secretary, Admiral Prof. Colombage, during the\ncourse of an interview to Derana 24 news channel stated: Very categorically,\nthe President has stated that we have a strategic security-wise \u2018India first\u2019\npolicy because we cannot be, we should not be, we can\u2019t afford to be a\nstrategic security threat for India, period,\u201d (August 20, 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The need for Sri Lanka to conduct foreign\nrelations with other countries in a manner that is not a security threat to\nIndia was a bitter lesson Sri Lanka, learnt several decades ago at great cost\nin terms of blood and treasure that lasted three decades.    The\nlesson Sri Lanka learnt was that if Sri Lanka engages in relations with\ncountries such as the USA, or any other whose interests may be perceived by\nIndia to be inimical to the latter\u2019s interests, in particular security, India\nwould not hesitate to convey its displeasure at such developments in a manner\nof its choosing.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

ALTERED LANDSCAPE<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the circumstances at that time\nwere different.  India was a founding\nmember of the Non-Aligned Movement, and global politics was determined by two recognized\nsuper powers.  While the majority of\ncountries were Non-aligned, others opted to be aligned with either one of the 2\nsuper powers.  Today, geopolitics is\ndefined by a single super power, the USA, that is being challenged by a rising\npower, aspiring to be the other super power or even the sole super power:  China.  \nIn such a background, India is no longer serious about staying committed\nto being non-aligned.  Instead, it is an\nintegral component of Quad, namely, a security related alliance made up of US,\nIndia, Japan and Australia, crafted as a feature of the US Policy \u2018Pivot to\nAsia\u2019.   This alliance is preparing\nitself to counter China\u2019s involvement in the Indian Ocean as part of its multi\ntrillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is in such an altered landscape that\none has to consider whether India would or would not accept Sri Lanka caving\ninto US pressure and signing the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)\nCompact, the Acquisition and Cross Service Agreement (ACSA) and Status of\nForces Agreement (SOFA).   Bearing in\nmind that India is known to have already signed similar agreements with the US\nand is a partner of the combined defense arrangements of Quad, would India\nconsider Sri Lanka signing any of these agreements with the US a security\nthreat to India?  NO!. On the other hand,\nIndia might welcome Sri Lanka signing security related Agreements with the USA,\nbecause Sri Lanka would then inadvertently become a part of the Quad security\nalliance to counter the influence of China. \n  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under these circumstances, a policy of\nIndia First\u201d would mean that India would not have any security concerns with\nSri Lanka if Sri Lanka becomes part of Quad by signing the three Agreements\npresented by the US, notwithstanding the sustained opposition expressed by the Sri\nLankan public.   For Sri Lanka to be in a\nposition where its interests and that of its public are determined by any other\nState or States, is unacceptable.  Therefore,\n\u2018India First\u2019 must be viewed with apprehension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A way to overcome such hard choices is to\nrely on the President\u2019s initial Foreign Policy of Neutrality; a position he\ndeclared to the nation and to the world during his inaugural acceptance speech\nin the hallowed precincts of Anuradhapura.   It\nwould only be a policy of Neutrality that would enable Sri Lanka to exercise\nits sovereign rights and at the same time ensure other States, in particular\nIndia and Quad, that Sri Lanka would be Neutral as far as security issues are\nconcerned while engaging with all nations in respect of other issues.   Such a policy would mean that when it comes\nto security no one is first.   All are\nequal.   This is of particular relevance\nin view of the emerging landscape in the Indian Ocean in respect of security\nissues  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

EMERGING LANDSCAPE<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Annual Report by the US OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY\nOF DEFENSE to Congress:\u201d Military and Security Developments Involving the\nPeople\u2019s Republic of China 2020 states: Beyond its current base in Djibouti,\nthe PRC is very likely already considering and planning for additional overseas\nmilitary logistics facilities to support naval, air, and ground forces. The PRC\nhas likely considered locations for PLA military logistics facilities in\nMyanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab\nEmirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan. The PRC and\nCambodia have publicly denied having signed an agreement to provide the PLAN\nwith access to Cambodia\u2019s Ream Naval Base\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether China is considering and planning\nadditional overseas military logistics facilities\u201d or not, the several Ports\nalready built by China in the Indian Ocean Rim countries could readily be\ntransformed into military logistics facilities.   In this regard Sri Lanka is particularly\nvulnerable because of all the countries referred to above, the uniqueness of\nthe strategic location of Sri Lanka for military logistics in the Indian Ocean is\na fact that is indisputable.  \nFurthermore, China already has a logistic facility in Hambantota, even\nthough not a military facility at this point in time.  Consequently, Sri Lanka would be hard pressed\nto avoid the rivalry that is inexorably emerging between Quad and China.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In such a background, would a policy of\nNon-Alignment or looking East for support from regional organizations such as\nBIMSTEC and\/or SAARC help Sri Lanka to deal with security related countervailing\npressures that are engulfing Sri Lanka in various forms; the latest being\nsanctions imposed by the US on Companies involved with the Port City Project?              <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Non-alignment was relevant at a different\ntime when the geopolitical construct was also different.  During that time, India and Sri Lanka were on\nthe same page as far as Foreign Relations were concerned as partners of the\nNon-Aligned Movement.   Furthermore, no\ncountry was interested in establishing their foot print in Sri Lanka, and the\nIndian Ocean was not the hot bed of rivalry that it is today as a consequence\nof China attempting to regain its place in the world, and alliances such as\nQuad attempting to counter China\u2019s efforts.  \nIn addition, by being part of Quad, India cannot realistically claim to\nbe non-aligned.   In such a context, Sri\nLanka has to be specific and state with whom or what aspects of Foreign\nRelations Sri Lanka is not aligned with, if non-alignment is in fact its policy.    In the absence of an unambiguous statement,\nthe message should be that Sri Lanka\u2019s relations with all States would be\nNeutral in respect of security related issues. \nSuch a policy would enable Sri Lanka to stay clear of major power\nrivalries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CONCLUSION<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The suggestion that Neutrality was an\nappropriate policy to guide Sri Lanka\u2019s Foreign Relations was mooted in an\narticle titled Independence: Its meaning and a direction for\nthe future\u201d (Ladduwahetty, The Island,February 14, 2019).  This\narticle stated: Traditional thinking as to how small States could cope with\nexternal pressures are supposed to be: (1) Non-alignment with any of the major\ncenters of power; (2) Alignment with one of the major powers thus making a\nchoice and facing the consequences of which power block prevails; (3)\nBandwagoning which involves unequal exchange where the small State makes\nasymmetric concessions to the dominant power and accepts a subordinate role of\na vassal State; (4) Hedging, which attempts to secure economic and security benefits\nof engagement with each power center: (5) Balancing pressures individually, or\nby forming alliances with other small States; (6) Neutrality\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continuing, the article stated: Of\nthe six strategies cited above, the only strategy that permits a sovereign\nindependent nation to charter its own destiny is neutrality, as it is with\nSwitzerland and some Nordic countries, not only because domestic rivalries\nprevent the development of consistent policies for engagement with great powers\nbut also because Sri Lanka does not have the skills or the level of\nsophistication to emerge unscathed from “grey zone coercion” of the\ngreat powers.   Neutrality has relevance\nat this particular point in time because regional cooperation arrangements\namong countries in the Indian Ocean Rim and South and South East Asia have lost\nits appeal due to each country attempting to engage in arrangements that suit\nthem best. Under the circumstances, how could neutrality translate itself in\nreal terms\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead of making a public declaration\nthat henceforth Sri Lanka would be neutral in its relations with the great\npowers, it would be more prudent to express neutrality via the manner in which\nSri Lanka engages with the great powers. To start with, Sri Lanka should cease\ntaking outright loans or loans to finance infrastructure projects however\nattractive the terms from either of the power blocks.   Equally important is for Sri Lanka to cease\nparticipating in security related land or sea operations with either of the\npower blocs because they are clearly conducted to further their own security\npreparedness\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the current geopolitical setting\nwhere the Indian Ocean with Sri Lanka right in the middle of it has become a\ntheater for rivalry between the security alliance of the US, India, Japan and\nAustralia (popularly referred to as the Quad), and China, the most prudent\npolicy for Sri Lanka, given the prevailing geopolitical particularities is one\nof Neutrality, as advocated and articulated by the President during his\ninaugural speech in the hallowed precincts of Anuradhapura.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neville Ladduwahetty                                               \nSeptember 8, 2020.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Neville Ladduwahetty courtesy Island The Additional Secretary to the President for Foreign Relations, Admiral Prof. Jayanath Colombage in an interview stated: The foreign policy of the new government is based on some key pillars. The number one is neutrality. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has repeatedly stated in Sri Lanka and India and in his interaction […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-106472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106472","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106472"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106472\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}