{"id":108675,"date":"2020-11-14T16:23:53","date_gmt":"2020-11-14T23:23:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=108675"},"modified":"2020-11-14T16:23:53","modified_gmt":"2020-11-14T23:23:53","slug":"biden-victory-implications-for-the-world-and-sri-lanka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2020\/11\/14\/biden-victory-implications-for-the-world-and-sri-lanka\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden victory – Implications for the World and Sri Lanka"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prof. N. A. de S. Amaratunga\u00a0\u00a0 DSc<\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n

Joseph Biden has decisively won the US presidential\nelections in November 2020 though President Trump also did extremely well\ngetting more than 47% of the popular vote. This indicates towards a politically\ndivided America and that Trumpism, or the nationalism that he gave leadership\nto, could influence future domestic as well as foreign US policies. Apart from\nthis internal contradiction, there had been in the outside world also\nsignificant changes which could impact on these policies. First there is the\nhuge Chinese factor which cannot be wished away and which has already\ncritically undermined US global influence and hegemony. Second the Russian\nresurgence and its ambitions in its vicinity and also elsewhere, eg. Syria, are\nnot easy to favourably resolve. Third the belligerence of the nuclear powered\nNorth Korea with its ICBM aimed at the US and the nuclear ambitious Iran have\nto be factored in. Fourth the US allies particularly the European Union which\nhave been estranged due to Trumpism, and Brexit which was opposed by Biden will\nhave to be addressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question is whether these issues would make Joe\nBiden deviate from the usual ugly American\u201d approach, the aggressive pursuance\nof its global agenda aimed to dominate the world, and adopt a less abrasive\npolicy specially towards small countries. Biden in his election campaign had\nindicated his position regarding most of these issues though apparently it is a\nposition that refuses to deviate from the usual US attitude towards what it\nperceives as anti-democratic authoritarian states. For instance he has not\nshown any conciliatory attitude towards China and also Russia. He has said he\nwill counter Chinese aggressive economic practices. Further he has said Russia\nis an opponent\u201d and that he would oppose its attempts to grab\u201d countries like\nCrimea. Yet he may go against Trump’s policy and seek Russia’s cooperation in\narms control and consider entering into anti-proliferation treatises, two of\nwhich have been canceled by Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However there could be significant policy changes with\nregard the Middle East. Biden has said he will negotiate with Iran about\nentering into the now defunct international accord on the nuclear programme in\nexchange for relaxing of sanctions. Iran has been busy amassing enriched\nnuclear fuel in its nuclear programme after Trump withdrew from the agreement\nand clamped trade sanctions. Biden will continue Trump’s policy of stopping the\nwars in Afghanistan and Iraq. He  has\nalso shown opposition to the Israel attempts to annex parts of Palestinian land\nin its settlement schemes and he could be concerned about human rights of\nPalestinians which the Democratic party is pushing for. Saudi Arabia doesn’t\nlike Biden’s policy on Iran. Biden also wants the Saudi-led war against Yemen\nstopped. Due to these reasons both Israel and Saudi Arabia wanted a Trump\nvictory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden may try to build up an alliance to oppose the\nChinese aggressive policies in the South China Sea, and over trade, Hong Kong,\nTaiwan and the technology war specially in the area of communication. Whether\nUS allies are interested in joining the US would depend on several factors.\nThey are somewhat disillusioned with Trump and recent polls show that American\nreputation has plummeted even amongst staunch allies. Trump had said NATO is\nobsolete\u201d and wanted to withdraw from it. Biden will have to do a lot to win\nover their confidence in order to act together against their adversaries. This\nmay prove to be difficult as most of the US allies have strong trade and aid\narrangements with China and may be reluctant to go the full distance with the\nUS on this issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China’s network of trade and aid in the five Continents\nis so vast and entrenched that dismantling or countering it would be a\ndifficult task. To take one example Australia, which is an ally of the West and\na member of QUAD the anti-China front, has allowed China in the last decade to\npour billions of dollars into Australia, China owns an airport in Western\nAustralia, nine million hectares of farm land, a port in Darwin, several coal\nmines and wind farms. As mentioned above this is the result of the vast changes\nthat had undergone in the global economic and political power equation where\nChina has played a huge role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any city in the Continent of Africa it is said that\nany building higher than three stories or a road longer than three kilometers\nis being built by Chinese companies with Chinese aid. Africa wanted to\nmodernize, urbanize and industrialize fast and no world power had answered\nAfrica’s call as China has. China may eventually own airports, harbours and\nsuch strategic assets in Zambia, Uganda, and Kenya. And the benefits of this\nrevolution in Africa would be reaped by China to a significant degree in\neconomic and political terms. China’s Road and Belt Initiative is winding its\nway into Lebanon and several other Middle East countries as well and it has\npledged aid to the value of USD 20 billion to these countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has increased its defense expenditure by 800%\nsince 1990s and is no push over if it comes to a fight, nuclear or otherwise,\nthough a war is most unlikely. The point is that the gigantic country cannot be\nbrow beaten and the US would know this. Further China has controlled the Covid\npandemic effectively and with minimum damage and has started to recover from\nthe economic downturn and would soon be in a position to further its global\nambitions which are benign compared to those of the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apart from these gigantic changes in the outside world\nwhich Joe Biden has to contend with, there are internal issues of a pressing\nnature. Most importantly the Covid-19 is threatening to wipe out its population\nwith more than ten million infected and more than hundred thousand deaths. The\ndaily count is increasing and now is in the range of 150000. Biden must realize\nthat the pandemic cannot be brought under control without draconian measures.\nIn this difficult job he has to deal with part of the population that stood\nwith Trump when he cocked a snook at the virus. This would have a huge effect\non the economy which is already reeling due to the pandemic. Biden also has to\naddress the climate issue which he has promised. Cutting down on emissions to\nmeet the Paris agreement requirement would have an adverse effect on the\neconomy at least at the beginning. Then he has to rectify relations with US\nallies and also realign with NATO, WHO, UNHRC etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joe Biden and the US may not be strong enough at this\njuncture to pursue the usual aggressive policies on China and also Russia, Iran\nand North Korea due to the reasons mentioned above. On the other hand a total\nchange of strategy also cannot be expected. A path somewhere in the middle may\nhave to be carefully chosen. Several International Relations scholars are of\nthe view that US may have to put its hegemonic and imperialist agenda in the\nback burner and not go pell-mell with the cold war that Trump had started.\nInstead the US would try to strengthen its relations and step up economic and military\nassistance to its allies in the region they call the Indo-Pacific. Trump had\nalready done this with India just before the election. The US may not resort to\narm-twisting in its dealings with small countries for it knows such action\nwould only push these countries into the arms of the waiting dragon who is more\nthan willing and capable of responding with a tight embrace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US may not pressure Sri Lanka to sign the MCC, SOFA\nand ACSA. It may not ask SL to take difficult but necessary decisions\u201d. Softer\ncoercive measures would most probably be adopted. In the UN also the US cannot\ndo much damage that matter because of the presence of Sri Lankan friends\nwielding veto power in the Council. The US in this regard may be somewhat\ndisadvantaged due to its inability to meet the economic and development needs\nof small countries it would like to take in its neo-colonial grip if possible,\nin its effort to thwart the advance of China. The latter in contrast with a\ngood post-Covid economic recovery would be in a position to help these\ncountries and neutralize the US efforts in the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India our immediate neibour who is now inextricably\naligned with the US, however, has enormous internal and external problems that\nit may not like to complicate matters by getting involved in the internal\naffairs of its neutral neighbours. The Covid pandemic is raging and taking a\nheavy toll on the people and the economy. Punjab issue is a complicated\nintractable problem which makes India’s involvement in similar issues in other countries\nseem hypocritical to say the least. Further, externally it has to contend with\nChina and Pakistan on two borders. India it appears, to a degree, is in the\nsame boat as the US. Like the US India too may have to adopt a middle path in\nits relations with its neighbours. Perhaps realising the complexity of these\nissues India has already started to mend relations with Nepal and seems to be\nkeen on developing good relations with its other neighbours as well. In this\nscenario trying to pressure Sri Lanka on the devolution issue may not be in the\nnational interest of India. Therefore we could hope that India will not resort\nto attempts at subversion of our government or destabilize it by other means as\nit did previously. India is also aware that Sri Lanka has a good and strong\nfriend in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under these circumstances Sri Lanka’s strategy should\nbe to demonstrate an effective diplomatic facade of neutrality and\nnon-alignment and make the maximum use of the opportunities that come its way\nto develop the country without compromising on national interests, assets,\nterritory, independence and sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prof. N. A. de S. Amaratunga   DSc<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prof. N. A. de S. Amaratunga\u00a0\u00a0 DSc Joseph Biden has decisively won the US presidential elections in November 2020 though President Trump also did extremely well getting more than 47% of the popular vote. This indicates towards a politically divided America and that Trumpism, or the nationalism that he gave leadership to, could influence future […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[127],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-108675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-n-a-de-s-amaratunga"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108675"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108675\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}