{"id":150621,"date":"2025-07-09T16:39:18","date_gmt":"2025-07-09T23:39:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=150621"},"modified":"2025-07-09T16:39:18","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T23:39:18","slug":"can-china-set-up-an-alternative-to-saarc-minus-india","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2025\/07\/09\/can-china-set-up-an-alternative-to-saarc-minus-india\/","title":{"rendered":"Can China set up an alternative to SAARC minus India?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Anuradha Chenoy<\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n

\u2014 July 7, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China may see a regional vacuum with a non-functional #SAARC, but it is unlikely to succeed in filling the gap with another regional entity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China and Pakistan are reportedly trying to create a new regional bloc<\/a> that can be an alternative to the increasingly dysfunctional South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).  India is likely to be excluded from the initiative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a meeting held in Kunming on June 19<\/a>, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh apparently discussed the possibility of forming the new regional bloc to focus on economic integration, infrastructure development and regional connectivity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s determination to isolate Pakistan and not engage with it has negatively impacted South Asian regionalism and the regional associations built around it, namely SAARC<\/a> and South Asian Free Trade Association (SAFTA<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can the SAARC gap be filled by China?  And would doing so serve China\u2019s strategic goals in the region?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SAARC has not held a formal summit since 2014, in keeping with India\u2019s position of no engagement with Pakistan, a state it accuses of supporting terrorism. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s focus instead has been on strong bilateralism with its South Asian neighbours. So far, China has done the same by significantly building strong relations with South Asian countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

READ<\/strong> I BRICS economic goals clash with India\u2019s Quad strategy<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pakistan-China \u2018all weather\u2019 ties<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s favourite South Asian nation by far is Pakistan, with whom they have an \u2018all weather\u2019 relationship. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pakistan\u2019s geopolitical dalliance with the US and its willingness to play proxy to US interests, however, stops short of its loyalty to China. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even as India and China seek to improve their relations and deepen trade ties, the Sino-Pak relationship is a red light for India. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pakistan\u2019s perceived role in sponsoring terrorism against it deters India from building regional cooperation as it pressures its regional allies to shun Pakistan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policy Circle is now on WhatsApp. Click here to join the channel<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The smaller South Asia nations, however, have their own way of hedging and leveraging regional powers, and each has its own agenda. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bangladesh courts China<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bangladesh\u2019s relations with India took a nosedive after the recent regime change when India\u2019s known favourite Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted by a populist student led movement<\/a>. It brought economist-technocrat Mohammad Yunus as interim head of government and Hasina took political asylum in India. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yunus is systematically improving relations with Pakistan which had adversarial relations with Bangladesh ever since the painful and bloody independence from Pakistan in 1971, which India facilitated with a significant military role. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, Yunus also seeks to strengthen Bangladesh\u2019s relations with China. Unlike with India, Bangladesh\u2019s relations with China<\/a> remain not just unchanged but deepening after the ouster of Hasina. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

China already supplies 72 percent<\/a> of Bangladesh military  equipment.  Now, Bangladesh\u2019s \u2018Forces Goal 2030\u2019<\/a> can boost Chinese arms imports to a new level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The difference is that while the Hasina Government took care of Indian sensitivities, Yunus has no such interest. Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen said<\/a> that the changed regime in Dhaka has not set back China\u2019s commitment to develop ties with Bangladesh. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nepal\u2019s equidistance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nepal, which houses the SAARC Secretariate, hedges its foreign policy in regional geopolitics. Sandwiched between India and China, Nepal has a deep dependence on India for trade and transit but it also wants China\u2019s development assistance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nepal benefits from India\u2019s open-door (visa-less) entry for Nepali citizens. However, India also has the capability to arm-twist Nepal and has blockaded it  in 1989<\/a> as well as 2015 and intervening not so subtly in its domestic politics.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nepal has, however, learnt to balance between India and China. Nepal is a participant in China\u2019s Belt and Road initiative but it also has development compacts<\/a>  with India.  Nepal clearly favours non-alignment and non-entanglement, keeping away from the Sino-Indian rivalry. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uneasy Bhutan and the Maldives<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bhutan remains uneasy<\/a> about China\u2019s declared claims for Bhutanese territory on the Doklam Plateau. The Tibet Autonomous Region of China has a 470-kilometer border with Bhutan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India on its part has pressured Bhutan on occasion withdrawing subsidies on gas and kerosene (Bhutan is dependent on India for these) and imposing its goods and services tax on Bhutanese<\/a> imports into India. These steps make Bhutan cautious about both India and China<\/a> as the Bhutanese are sensitive about their identity and sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Maldives has got into a debt-trap with China to the tune of US$ 3.2 billion. However, it also seeks and receives Chinese development and infrastructure assistance. Now, Maldives is also trying to  navigate stronger ties with India<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policy Circle is now on Telegram. Click here to join the channel.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sri Lanka\u2019s balancing game<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sri Lanka has also sought to balance between India and China.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was an early reformer into neoliberal economic restructuring<\/a> but started facing unprecedented political and economic crises since 2022 \u2014 due to a combination of factors that include the impact of Covid-19 on tourism, the Ukraine conflict, its earlier civil war with its Tamil minority, political corruption and international debt<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This forced Sri Lanka to seek IMF loans 16 times. Nearly  80 percent of Sri Lankan debt is from International Sovereign Bonds<\/a> \u2014 not China. Moreover, the US has an interest in Sri Lanka<\/a> as a strategic marine base. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

China plays up to Afghanistan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has sought to mediate to smoothen the turbulent relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan but has not met with much success. However, it does have an economic relationship with the Taliban government in Afghanistan since it envisages expanding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) northwards to Afghanistan<\/a> and then the Central Asian Republics. At the same time, China has concerns about Taliban\u2019s links with radical Islamic groups especially the Uighurs<\/a> present in Afghanistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With these geopolitical tugs and pulls between regional powers would China manage to build a SAARC-like organisation? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The prospect seems quite unlikely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is interested in advancing its trade and exercising economic leverage. Getting into any new formal regional organisation that competes with India pushed SAARC \u2014 even if it is defunct does not serve its purpose currently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India and SAARC<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As far as India and SAARC is concerned, India needs to revive a regional body. If not SAARC, then SAFTA.  While India is plagued by the terror issue allegedly emanating from Pakistan, it cannot allow regionalism trade and related issues to be held hostage on account of the zero-sum game with Pakistan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, putting pressure on smaller neighbours gives India the reputation of a regional bully \u2014 something that India implies about China<\/a> of. India itself does not like the biggest bully, the US, pressuring South Asian countries, including India. It makes no sense for India, therefore, to do precisely what it criticises in others. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, most of the small regional states would like a regional organisation to vent their views. After all, most other regions have a working regional organisation that gives them collective heft, like ASEAN, the African Union, the Economic Commission for Latin America and so on.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the smaller nations of South Asia neighbouring India and China would be unlikely to join a regional organisation that would alienate either of them. Both India and China understand that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anuradha Chenoy<\/em><\/strong> is Adjunct Professor, O P Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana, India. Originally published under <\/em>Creative Commons<\/em><\/a> by <\/em>360info<\/em><\/a><\/em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Anuradha Chenoy \u2014 July 7, 2025 China may see a regional vacuum with a non-functional #SAARC, but it is unlikely to succeed in filling the gap with another regional entity. China and Pakistan are reportedly trying to create a new regional bloc that can be an alternative to the increasingly dysfunctional South Asian Association for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-150621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150621","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=150621"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150621\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=150621"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=150621"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=150621"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}