{"id":157700,"date":"2026-08-06T14:55:34","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T21:55:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=157700"},"modified":"2026-08-06T14:55:34","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T21:55:34","slug":"engineering-prognosis-a-lesson-for-health-governance-and-national-survival","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2026\/08\/06\/engineering-prognosis-a-lesson-for-health-governance-and-national-survival\/","title":{"rendered":"Engineering Prognosis: A Lesson for Health, Governance, and National Survival"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Dr. Sarath Obeysekera<\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n

One of the most valuable lessons I learned as an engineering postgraduate in the Soviet Union was that the greatest engineers are not those who repair failures\u2014they are those who predict them before they occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My postgraduate research at the Gubkin State University of Oil and Gas in Moscow in 1975 focused on the prognosis of journal bearing failures in massive reciprocating compressors used to inject natural gas into deep underground porous limestone formations in the Kaluga region of the Moscow Oblast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These compressors were among the largest operating in the Soviet gas industry. A sudden bearing failure could halt production, damage expensive machinery, and disrupt the energy supply. Instead of waiting for a breakdown, my research investigated how changes in lubricating oil pressure, temperature, vibration, and other operating parameters could provide early warning signs. By continuously monitoring these indicators, engineers could predict the remaining life of the bearing and schedule maintenance before a catastrophic failure occurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This philosophy of prognosis rather than diagnosis should not remain confined to engineering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is equally relevant to the way we govern a nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sri Lanka often reacts to disasters only after they have become crises. Whether it is dengue outbreaks, floods, droughts, epidemics, or economic shocks, we frequently mobilise resources only after lives have been lost and damage has already occurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modern technology allows us to do much better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Artificial Intelligence can analyse enormous volumes of data\u2014from rainfall patterns, reservoir levels, disease surveillance, satellite imagery, and climate models\u2014to identify warning signs well before disasters unfold. Just as an engineer monitors a compressor bearing, governments should monitor the health indicators\u201d of the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The recent discussions on El Ni\u00f1o demonstrate this need. Climate anomalies can influence droughts, floods, agricultural production, electricity generation, food prices, and public health. These are not unexpected events; they are developments that can be forecast with increasing accuracy. The challenge is to convert scientific predictions into timely policy decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same principle applies to public health. AI-based surveillance systems can identify unusual disease patterns, predict dengue hotspots, anticipate shortages of hospital resources, and recommend preventive action weeks in advance. Prevention is invariably less expensive than emergency response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The global geopolitical environment also demands predictive thinking. Conflicts in the Middle East, disruptions to shipping routes, fluctuations in oil prices, cyber threats, and supply chain interruptions all have direct consequences for Sri Lanka. Governments should continuously evaluate these risks using predictive models rather than responding only after the impact reaches our shores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Engineering teaches us that every failure leaves warning signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The wisdom lies in recognising them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our national planning institutions should evolve from being reactive administrators into predictive organisations. Ministries, universities, research institutes, and the private sector should work together to develop AI-driven forecasting systems covering health, climate, food security, transport, energy, and national security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A country that predicts problems will always outperform one that merely reacts to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Soviet engineers who inspired my research understood this principle decades ago. Today, with artificial intelligence, satellite technology, and advanced computing, our ability to foresee risks is greater than ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real question is not whether we possess the technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is whether we possess the vision and determination to use it before the next crisis arrives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regards

Dr Sarath Obeysekera<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Dr. Sarath Obeysekera One of the most valuable lessons I learned as an engineering postgraduate in the Soviet Union was that the greatest engineers are not those who repair failures\u2014they are those who predict them before they occur. My postgraduate research at the Gubkin State University of Oil and Gas in Moscow in 1975 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[116],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-157700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dr-sarath-obeysekera"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157700","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=157700"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157700\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":157701,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157700\/revisions\/157701"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=157700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=157700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=157700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}