{"id":40755,"date":"2015-01-10T11:26:49","date_gmt":"2015-01-10T17:26:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=40755"},"modified":"2015-01-10T02:47:36","modified_gmt":"2015-01-10T09:47:36","slug":"sinhala-voters-are-the-king-makers-and-the-ray-of-hope-for-the-defeated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2015\/01\/10\/sinhala-voters-are-the-king-makers-and-the-ray-of-hope-for-the-defeated\/","title":{"rendered":"Sinhala Voters are the King Makers and the Ray of Hope for the Defeated"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dilrook Kannangara\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n

In 2010 Mahinda won with an astounding lead of close to two million. But within just five (5) years, he lost 2.3 million votes to a hitherto unknown contestant. How did that happen? It is important to get it right. Otherwise the UPFA and the Rajapaksa clan will be condemned to nothingness for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

In 1956, 1970, 1977, 2004 and now in 2015 Sinhala voters have shown they are ruthlessly against minority appeasement. Sinhala voters who ended the mighty Senanayaka clan in 1970 over the Dudley-Chelva Pact is a lesson to all. It can happen again.<\/p>\n

The Minority Myth and Debunking It<\/strong><\/p>\n

Minorities never voted for Mahinda in larger numbers. Mahinda always lost all provinces where minorities are the most. So there is no surprise there. The surprise is the losing of Sinhala votes.<\/p>\n

Maithripala campaign focused very heavily on harawum lakshaya\u201d specifically for this reason and what a good strategy it was. If you compare the lead Mahinda lost (lead over SF in 2010 and lead over MS in 2015), you can see what districts had the most reduction in the lead. Here is their rank and the rank of Sinhala population. Top 5.<\/p>\n

Gampaha \u2013 lost 288,870 votes \u2013 Sinhala population rank of all districts \u2013 1<\/p>\n

Colombo \u2013 lost 244,177 votes \u2013 Sinhala population rank of all districts \u2013 2<\/p>\n

Kurunegala \u2013 lost 174,924 votes \u2013 Sinhala population rank of all districts \u2013 3<\/p>\n

Kandy \u2013 lost 165,553 votes \u2013 Sinhala population rank of all districts \u2013 6<\/p>\n

Kalutara \u2013 lost 134,269 votes \u2013 Sinhala population rank of all districts \u2013 4<\/p>\n

Only exception is Galle where the Sinhala population rank of all districts is 5. Lead reduction is 92,206.<\/p>\n

Total reduction of votes from the top 6 Sinhala majority districts is 1.1 million exactly. Even if half this reduction was saved, Mahinda is the president today. Why did he lose such a large number of Sinhala votes?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the Economy!<\/strong><\/p>\n

Take a look at provincial GDP growth for 2011, 2012, 2013 – 2012 given here.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.cbsl.gov.lk\/pics_n_docs\/10_pub\/_docs\/statistics\/other\/Socio_Econ_Data_2014_e.pdf<\/a> (page 49)<\/p>\n

Only 3 provinces’ GDP growth rate exceeded the inflation rate by a meaningful percentage – southern, northern and eastern. Voters in the north and the east are driven by racism than economy, etc. and as expected chose to vote according to it. Sinhalese except in the south had no real economic benefit since 2010 which was much expected after the war.<\/p>\n

Mahinda was lucky to get away with 47% or may be due to the very expensive campaign. Corruption was far worse in Jayawardana\u2019s term when the Mahaweli project, war, housing and other gimmicks gobbled billions when the economy was just a fraction of it now. However, corruption never became an election game changer because they served the Sinhalese and in this case, almost entirely the Sinhalese. People forgave corruption as they felt development.<\/p>\n

Minority Appeasing Politics<\/strong><\/p>\n

The most notable political development of the Rajapaksa second term is the LLRC which is the most comprehensive of all presidential commissions this country has seen. But its report is all about appeasing Tamils and it has nothing positive for Sinhalese and Muslims. The only constitutional amendment Mahinda made with his two thirds is the 18A which is of no use for anyone or the nation.<\/p>\n

According to the economic development minister in 2013, over 90% of borrowed funds went to the north and the east. While the north and the east got excellent roads, the only comparable road to the south charges money! While the northern rail link was made in record time, the Matara-Kataragama rail link which was on the drawing board for a longer time never saw its completion.<\/p>\n

Tamil IDPs were resettled in record time while Sinhala and Muslims IDPs were totally neglected. Tamil racist Thesawalamei Law continues its ugly rule of the north depriving non-Tamils its thriving economy. SLMC leader used his authority as the Minister of Justice to help Muslims get into Law College in record numbers and expand the Islamist network throughout the country including two Wahab universities.<\/p>\n

From 2010 to 2015 a total of 46 Sinhalese were killed by government action; 2 Muslims and one Tamil. The disparity and its causes are clear; crystal clear.<\/p>\n

The Future of UPFA Looks Surprisingly Bright<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite the defeat, the future of UPFA and even the Rajapaksa clan look surprisingly bright. They have a very good chance to ride back to power and reclaim lost glory. They must get down to basics as they did in 2002-04. They must unreservedly champion Sinhala interests; demand the abrogation of 13A; demand economic benefits for Sinhalese; disrupt all attempts to appease Tamils; resist war crimes investigations ferociously and team up with the very Sinhala groups that worked for the victory of Sirisena. UPFA has no minority votes to lose now as it has lost all.<\/p>\n

Above all, UPFA must delay the general election due next year. The longer it takes the better for it. And it must demand to abolish the executive presidency and the current election system. It is the presidential election and the preferential voting system that has given the minorities a disproportionate power. These two must go. CWC, SLMC and TNA may be assets at presidential polls but liabilities at the general election. To win back, UPFA must unreservedly take up Sinhala concerns as it has nothing to lose from minorities. When TNA, SLMC and CWC votes are subtracted from Sirisena\u2019s votes, he is left with a smaller percentage than UPFA.<\/p>\n

Despite his old age, as King Walagamba did, Mahinda can do it again. For that he must take up the problems of Sinhalese. He must know who his voters are and who the fakes are who love to surround him in success.<\/p>\n

Conversely, Sirisena must take a leaf from Mahinda’s disaster. Dudley, CBK, Ranil and Sirima also fell in this same pit in their second term trying to appease minorities. Minorities didn\u2019t vote for his Maithri Palanayak\u201d. They voted hoping for petty communal gains over other communities. It is all good until the election is over but then begins racial bargaining. Unless Sirisena comes out of this racist pickle, he is not going anywhere and an ambitious Opposition awaits its turn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dilrook Kannangara\u00a0 In 2010 Mahinda won with an astounding lead of close to two million. But within just five (5) years, he lost 2.3 million votes to a hitherto unknown contestant. How did that happen? It is important to get it right. Otherwise the UPFA and the Rajapaksa clan will be condemned to nothingness for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dilrook-kannangara"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40755"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40755\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}