There is no doubt Mahinda lost the election. It w as a mathematical certainty as he invested far too much on the minority which turned against him by 2012 and the majority was deprived of meaningful economic benefits. As per strict interpretation of the law, a candidate wins the election by winning over 50% votes. As such Sirisena won win a margin of 155,436 votes. This is what the Election Commissioner declares. In other words, Sirisena would not be president had he won 155,436 (or thereabout) votes less (provided the total valid votes remain same).<\/p>\n
There is grave suspicion of election fraud in Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Trincomalee, Digamadulla and Colombo Districts due to the suspicious increase in the registered number of voters, the voters’ turnout and the possibility of casting votes twice owing to improved road infrastructure. On a lighter note, it is rather unfortunate that Mahinda’s excellent road network led to his defeat, literally.<\/p>\n
Background<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Voters register in the Northern Province was ridiculously wrong until 2010. For instance in 2010 Jaffna Election District (including Kilinochchi) had 721,359 registered voters when the entire Jaffna District population in 2012 was only 696,253! In 2010 the Northern Province had 990,344 registered voters when its entire population in 2012 was only 1,058,762. How come 94% of Northern Province was adults and voters in 2010? Nationally it is only around only 71%.<\/p>\n After 2010 the Northern Province voters register was cleansed but not completely. It still contains many names relating to persons who permanently reside abroad and elsewhere.<\/p>\n However, the crucial factor is a very high percentage of registered voters from the Northern Province have registered themselves in the voters register elsewhere, mostly in Colombo and Gampaha Districts. It didn’t matter until the 2015 election as not many could possibly caste their vote twice in the Northern and Western Provinces on the same day because travel time was substantial. However, today it is very much possible for a person to caste his\/her vote in Colombo or Gampaha and also caste a second vote in the districts of Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Trincomalee and Digamadulla.<\/p>\n Since the end of the war, persons of minority ethnic groups dispersed throughout the country while retaining their home-base in their original villages. This was not seen among the majority.<\/p>\n Basis of Suspicion<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n In 2010 only 292,812 from the Northern Province voted but it astronomically increased to 534,430 in 2015. The easy explanation is resettlement and peace. However, they don’t sufficiently explain this increase of 83%. Even in 1982 there was only 44% voters’ turnout in Jaffna District which was 66% in 2015. Similarly Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Nuwara Eliya Districts showed 20%, 20% and 23% increases respectively in the number polled compared to 2010. For all other districts it was only 14%.<\/p>\n Further suspicion is aroused by the fact that the registered voters for the Northern Province increased from 2013 to 2014 by a staggering 9%. It was an increase of 5% for the Eastern Province and 4% for the North Western Province. How come Northern Province registered voters increased so dramatically since the Northern Provincial Council election just a year ago?<\/p>\n TNA’s success at the Northern Provincial Council election and improved transport infrastructure which enabled casting fraudulent votes in the north most probably drove this rush of registrations (or double registrations). Most working adults in Jaffna District work outside the district and potentially have registered (and voted) in two districts. Vanni, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Trincomalee and Digamadulla Districts also have a significant number of adults working outside the district and potentially have registered (and voted) in two districts.<\/p>\n During voter registration, certain foreign funded NGOs worked very hard to register as many persons as they possibly could in these districts. Their efforts have produced the desired result.<\/p>\n Numbers Involved<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n If Sirisena received 440,250 votes from persons casting more than one vote, he is ineligible to become president. (In that case Mahinda too would also have received around 130,000 such votes.) As he won 75% of the vote in the Districts of Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Trincomalee and parts of Digamadulla had 293,500 persons from these districts casted two votes each, it brings down his true total below 50%. This assumes both votes cast by a fraudulent person are invalidated.<\/p>\n That is 16% of registered voters in these districts. It is a reasonable number given the astronomical increase in the number polled in these districts.<\/p>\n The same logic does not apply in other districts as the chances of one getting more votes than the other by fraud are slim. As the percentages are close to 50% for both, chances are that fraudulent votes are equally distributed between the two main candidates.<\/p>\n Course of Action<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n The Supreme Court should be petitioned alleging voter fraud in the districts Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Nuwara Eliya, Trincomalee, Digamadulla, Puttlam, Gampaha and Colombo helped Sirisena win the election. A preliminary investigation into actual names of voters who cast their votes in these districts must be made to identify those who voted twice. It will be a substantial investigation but only around 300,000 (with a safety margin) such instances need to be found. Subject to access, a force of 100 persons can complete the work in a couple of days.<\/p>\n If the court buys the argument, it may order an island-wide investigation.<\/p>\n Counting the second preference this time would not help anyone win the election and as such the election will be annulled as it failed to elect anyone as president. It will be as if there was no presidential election.<\/p>\n Even if the case is unsuccessful, it will caste substantial doubt in voters of the legitimacy of the victory of the UNP led coalition that will deny the UNP the post-election popularity surge it enjoys now. This surge if allowed to remain can propel it to win most parliamentary seats at the forthcoming General Election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dilrook Kannangara There is no doubt Mahinda lost the election. It w as a mathematical certainty as he invested far too much on the minority which turned against him by 2012 and the majority was deprived of meaningful economic benefits. As per strict interpretation of the law, a candidate wins the election by winning over […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dilrook-kannangara"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40939"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40939\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}