{"id":41583,"date":"2015-02-16T17:34:59","date_gmt":"2015-02-16T23:34:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=41583"},"modified":"2015-02-16T08:01:52","modified_gmt":"2015-02-16T15:01:52","slug":"58-of-sinhalese-voted-for-mahinda-down-from-68-in-2010-and-61-in-2005","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2015\/02\/16\/58-of-sinhalese-voted-for-mahinda-down-from-68-in-2010-and-61-in-2005\/","title":{"rendered":"58% of Sinhalese Voted for Mahinda, Down from 68% in 2010 and 61% in 2005"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dilrook Kannangara<\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n

Based on my own calculations based on regression analysis, Mahinda received 58% of Sinhala votes confirming media reports to the effect. However, what those media reports fail to say is Mahinda received 68% of Sinhala votes in 2010 and 61% of Sinhala votes in 2005. It is clear that falling below the 60% threshold leads to defeat for Mahinda. In other words, Sinhala support for Mahinda in 2015 was less than in 2005.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, minority support for Mahinda was just 8% in 2005 despite his win. This is not affected by the low voters\u2019 turnout as it affected both candidates. It peaked in 2010 to 16% and fell to 13% in 2015.<\/p>\n

As can be seen, the driving force behind Mahinda\u2019s win or loss is the Sinhala vote. Had he managed to get his 2005 percentage of 61% from Sinhala voters, he would have won the election despite losing the minority vote. This understanding has immense repercussions on charting the future course of the party he represent. If the SLFP, UPFA or whatever party that aligns itself to the policies Mahinda stood for, it must primarily champion Sinhala interests to be successful at elections.<\/p>\n

Mahinda\u2019s (or the party said to stand by his principles) comeback strategy must be to demand the repeal of 13A which appeals to the Sinhala voters. All other ancillary issues can be tied to it. For instance, a large amount of corruption can be attributed to provincial councils which have an annual allocation close to $1 billion of which at least 7% goes for useless administrative functions. All provincial council work can be handled by the central government with lower cost to the people. PCs also breed nepotism. Most provincial councillors are the kith of kin of national politicians. Political violence, unscrupulous acts by politicians and corruption can be traced back to present or former provincial councillors. Most nefarious politicians today have a background in provincial councils. In addition, provincial councils have made it easy for separatists to push for their incremental Elam demands. By removing 13A, all these evils can be eliminated.<\/p>\n

This approach will lose the minority support but at 13%, there is nothing much to lose anyway. In fact this small chunk of minority support comes not from devolution supporters but from sections of the Tamil and Muslim minorities that don\u2019t benefit from devolution. EPDP voters in the north, marginalised Tamils from the east and poorer sections of Muslims vote for the SLFP whether it supports devolution or not. Besides General Elections severely polarise minorities into voting for exclusive political parties like TNA, SLMC and CWC. Therefore, there is absolutely nothing the Mahinda camp loses by abrogating 13A.<\/p>\n

Without presenting a genuine prospectus for the voters to vote for the party like abrogation of 13A, it is foolhardy to hope for votes. The fragmented electorate needs a rallying call to support one party (particularly the one that lost) against many others vying for votes. Will the Mahinda camp do justice to the 58% of Sinhala voters who placed their trust in it?<\/p>\n

People have come a long way since the days of the war. They have different challenges today. Addressing new challenges faced by the people determines the win or loss.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dilrook Kannangara Based on my own calculations based on regression analysis, Mahinda received 58% of Sinhala votes confirming media reports to the effect. However, what those media reports fail to say is Mahinda received 68% of Sinhala votes in 2010 and 61% of Sinhala votes in 2005. It is clear that falling below the 60% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dilrook-kannangara"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41583","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41583"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41583\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}