{"id":47046,"date":"2015-08-15T16:41:37","date_gmt":"2015-08-15T23:41:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=47046"},"modified":"2015-08-15T16:41:55","modified_gmt":"2015-08-15T23:41:55","slug":"general-election-of-sri-lanka-forecast-for-august-2015-late-surge-for-upfa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2015\/08\/15\/general-election-of-sri-lanka-forecast-for-august-2015-late-surge-for-upfa\/","title":{"rendered":"GENERAL ELECTION OF SRI LANKA \u2013 FORECAST FOR AUGUST 2015- LATE SURGE FOR UPFA!"},"content":{"rendered":"

By M D P DISSANAYAKE<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n

The following forecast had been calculated based on a quantitative analysis, trends and historical reasoning.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Three traditional methods of forecasting, viz. Best Case Scenario, Worst Case Scenario and the Most Likely Case Scenario\u00a0 were\u00a0 used for each district.<\/p>\n

Some of the punitive actions\u00a0 taken by President Sirisena during last few days against\u00a0 his own party candidate\u00a0 Mr Mahinda Rajapakse\u00a0 has\u00a0 swung the voter sensitiveness in favour of MR to an unbeatable position.\u00a0 These actions have further energised the Pro MR vote bank and an increase in voter turnout is expected at polling booths.<\/p>\n

The Worst Case Scenario for UPFA will be 96 seats as against 85 seats for the UNP and JVP\/DP, with the Best Case Scenario projecting 135 for UPFA and 49 for the UNP and JVP\/DP.\u00a0\u00a0 The Most Likely outcome is projected as 127 for UPFA and 55.\u00a0 In all three scenarios, the UPFA will be the winner with the largest number of seats.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
2015 GENERAL ELECTION FORECAST – SRI LANKA<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nWORST CASE SCENARiO<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\nUPFA<\/strong><\/td>\nUNP\/JVP<\/strong><\/td>\nTNA<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nCENTRAL PROVINCE:<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nKANDY<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nMATALE<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nNUWARAELIYA<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nEASTERN PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nBATTICALOA<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nDIGAMADULLA<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nTRINCOMALEE<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nNORTHERN PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nJAFFNA<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nWANNI<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nSOUTHERN PROV<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nGALLE<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nMATARA<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nHAMBANTHOTA<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nWESTERN PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nCOLOMBO<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nGAMPAHA<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nKALUTARA<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nNTH WEST. PROV<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nKURUNEGALA<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nPUTTALAM<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nNTH CENTRAL PROV<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nANURADHAPURA<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nPOLONNARUWA<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nUVA PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nBADULLA<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nMONERAGAL<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nSABARAGAMUWA<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nRATNAPURA<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nKEGALLE<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nTOTAL TO BE ELECTED<\/strong><\/td>\n96<\/strong><\/td>\n85<\/strong><\/td>\n15<\/strong><\/td>\n196<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nNATIONAL LIST<\/strong><\/td>\n14<\/strong><\/td>\n13<\/strong><\/td>\n2<\/strong><\/td>\n29<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nGRAND TOTAL<\/strong><\/td>\n110<\/strong><\/td>\n100<\/strong><\/td>\n15<\/strong><\/td>\n225<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
BEST CASE SCENARIO<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nUPFA<\/strong><\/td>\nUNP\/JVP<\/strong><\/td>\nTNA<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CENTRAL PROVINCE:<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KANDY<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MATALE<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NUWARAELIYA<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EASTERN PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BATTICALOA<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DIGAMADULLA<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TRINCOMALEE<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NORTHERN PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JAFFNA<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WANNI<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SOUTHERN PROV<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GALLE<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MATARA<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HAMBANTHOTA<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WESTERN PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
COLOMBO<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GAMPAHA<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KALUTARA<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NTH WEST. PROV<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KURUNEGALA<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PUTTALAM<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NTH CENTRAL PROV<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ANURADHAPURA<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
POLONNARUWA<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UVA PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BADULLA<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MONERAGAL<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SABARAGAMUWA<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RATNAPURA<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KEGALLE<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TOTAL TO BE ELECTED<\/strong><\/td>\n135<\/strong><\/td>\n49<\/strong><\/td>\n12<\/strong><\/td>\n196<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NATIONAL LIST<\/strong><\/td>\n20<\/strong><\/td>\n7<\/strong><\/td>\n2<\/strong><\/td>\n29<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GRAND TOTAL<\/strong><\/td>\n155<\/strong><\/td>\n56<\/strong><\/td>\n14<\/strong><\/td>\n225<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nUPFA<\/strong><\/td>\nUNP\/JVP<\/strong><\/td>\nTNA<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CENTRAL PROVINCE:<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KANDY<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MATALE<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NUWARAELIYA<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
EASTERN PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BATTICALOA<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DIGAMADULLA<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TRINCOMALEE<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NORTHERN PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JAFFNA<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WANNI<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SOUTHERN PROV<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GALLE<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MATARA<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HAMBANTHOTA<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WESTERN PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
COLOMBO<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GAMPAHA<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KALUTARA<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NTH WEST. PROV<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KURUNEGALA<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PUTTALAM<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NTH CENTRAL PROV<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ANURADHAPURA<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
POLONNARUWA<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UVA PROV.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BADULLA<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MONERAGAL<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SABARAGAMUWA<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RATNAPURA<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KEGALLE<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TOTAL TO BE ELECTED<\/strong><\/td>\n127<\/strong><\/td>\n55<\/strong><\/td>\n14<\/strong><\/td>\n196<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NATIONAL LIST<\/strong><\/td>\n19<\/strong><\/td>\n8<\/strong><\/td>\n2<\/strong><\/td>\n29<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GRAND TOTAL<\/strong><\/td>\n146<\/strong><\/td>\n63<\/strong><\/td>\n16<\/strong><\/td>\n225<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By M D P DISSANAYAKE The following forecast had been calculated based on a quantitative analysis, trends and historical reasoning.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Three traditional methods of forecasting, viz. Best Case Scenario, Worst Case Scenario and the Most Likely Case Scenario\u00a0 were\u00a0 used for each district. Some of the punitive actions\u00a0 taken by President Sirisena during last few […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[63],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dr-m-d-p-dissanayake"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47046","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47046"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47046\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}