{"id":70297,"date":"2017-10-03T16:03:23","date_gmt":"2017-10-03T23:03:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=70297"},"modified":"2017-10-03T16:03:23","modified_gmt":"2017-10-03T23:03:23","slug":"a-tenth-province-or-coastal-authority-to-deal-with-climate-change-a-must-for-a-21st-century-constitution-of-sri-lanka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2017\/10\/03\/a-tenth-province-or-coastal-authority-to-deal-with-climate-change-a-must-for-a-21st-century-constitution-of-sri-lanka\/","title":{"rendered":"A \u201cTenth province\u201d or Coastal authority to deal with climate change. A must for a 21st century constitution of Sri Lanka. \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Chandre Dharmawardana, Ottawa, Canada<\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n

The proposed constitution has provoked much debate, but mainly within the framework of traditional thinking with emphasis on the usual issues, i.e., Unitary and\u00a0 Devolved power, the place of Buddhism, or the executive presidency.\u00a0 Whether devolution should be district-based\u00a0 or province-based has been debated for at least 50 years, with the same arguments being brought out. While the demand for devolution originally came from the Tamil Nationalist politicians, the majority ethnic group has\u00a0 not supported this, as has been the case all over the world. The ensuing violence between the government and the\u00a0 Tamil minority led to the entry of India into the fray. Rajeev Gandhi\u00a0 kept two Indian armed frigates in the Colombo harbour to impose its solution in terms of provincial devolution.\u00a0 But, given the first opportunity, even Prabhakaran\u00a0 rejected the Indian solution, fought the Indian army and assassinated Rajeev Gandhi to show his capacity for vengeance. India failed to keep its side of the agreement, making it null and void. But Sri Lanka is still in labour with the fetus of a\u00a0 13A , her legs held apart by international agents and NGOs, while the mistrust between communities has long snuffed out the fetus.<\/p>\n

The two communities are still licking their war wounds and angling to wound the other with international tribunals and sanctions. They invent new words like Aekeeya Rajya\u201d, and Orumitta Nadu\u201d but threaten each other under their breath, and over their breath, hurling accusations of genocide or of creating terrorism to break up the country. They fail to see that a major threat of global scale has completely changed the stakes.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Climate change and its dramatic effect on the maritime region. <\/strong>
\nJust after the defeat of the LTTE, in 2009 I presented a talk to a gathering of officials at the Presidential secretariat,\u00a0\u00a0 entitled Four Challenges to Sri Lanka and their Technological solutions\u201d. One of the challenges was the looming danger of global warming and the rising\u00a0 sea level. This is a national tragedy requiring a concerted national effort. The North and a good part of the East are the most affected, and will indeed go under water even if preventive steps are launched right now.<\/p>\n

But politicians and constitutional pundits are oblivious to the harsh reality of global warming and the rising sea levels all over the world. Sri Lanka, being at the equator will face a larger increase in the sea level than off-equitorial latitudes.\u00a0 Current constitutional debates ignore\u00a0 the most urgent issues that Sri Lanka will\u00a0 face in the next decade due to climate change as well as the on-going technological tsunami.\u00a0 I discussed how we may\u00a0 harness the digital revolution to our advantage in a previous article (Island, 25 September 2017)\u00a0 entitled Unit of Devolution \u2013 look in cyberspace\u201d.\u00a0 Someone will ask, what has climate change to do with the constitution? Here I try\u00a0 to show that it has everything to do with the constitution in enabling us to deal with the inundation of large parts of the country that will occur in the coming decades. The creation of an over-arching supreme authority that transcends districts, provinces, and even religious monuments since the choice is between saving the maritime region of Sri Lanka, or letting it become part of the sea.<\/p>\n

The inter-governmental panel for climate change (IGPP) and other bodies studying climate change have published predictions of the expected rise in sea level due to global warming. Figure 1 shows the predictions done in 2013 (these documents are\u00a0 available at:\u00a0 dh-web.org\/place.names\/posts\/CD-long-10thProv.pdf).\u00a0 Today it is believed that the more dangerous prediction (i.e., higher sea levels, marked RCP8.5) is most likely to hold, as most nations have defaulted in cutting down on carbon and green-house gas emissions. The rise in sea level may be as high as 0.5 to 0.8 meters within the next 15 years. This occurs with the warming of the oceans and melting of the polar caps. This is accompanied by increased humidity in the air. According to a law in chemical physics, the increase in humidity follows an exponential law, i.e., it is proportional to exp{-H\/T} where H is the heat of evaporation and T is the temperature. Hence\u00a0 even\u00a0 a few degrees of heating can have a dramatic effect. The excess water and heat powers up tornadoes and torrential rain where precipitation is not in rain drops, but sheets of down pour! The world has already seen this intensified catastrophic weather events of recent times. Sri Lanka too has seen unprecedented floods, earth slips and inundation.<\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Fig.1 Rise\u00a0 in sea level with time.
\nThe flooding pattern from recent storms are a\u00a0 guide to how much inundation can occur. Topographical maps show the extent of Sri Lanka’s coastal\u00a0 low-lying areas\u00a0 that go under with a one meter sea rise. In fact, the Tsunami inundation gives an extreme measure of what could happen when the sea flows in. In\u00a0 figure 2, the left panel shows the region inundated in the January 2011 floods, while the right panel shows the areas affected by the 2004 Tsunami, adapted from an official\u00a0 emergency response map issued at the time. Waves varying from one to twelve meters in height hit the shores of Sri Lanka, with the bigger waves hitting the Eastern province and the Northern province.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Fig. 2 The map on the left shows the inundation from the floods due to rain storm in Jan 2011. The right panel shows the extent of the area affected by the 2004 December Tsunami to varying degrees.<\/p>\n

It is not just the rise in mean sea level that matters. The dynamic level, driven by wind, waves and currents is what counts. If the sea rises by a meter, and if we can expect tsunami-like high waves due storm conditions aggravated by a heated ocean, we need a strong raised wall (bund or dyke)\u00a0 along the marine periphery of the Island\u00a0 to hold off the sea.\u00a0 A protective maritime region and its facilities have to be designed from the outset with a grand vision if we are to reap some benefits out of this unavoidable calamity.\u00a0 The protective dyke also holds a track for an electric bullet train\u201d,\u00a0 communication lines, security and heliports\u00a0 (for landing drones), pumps to send out flood waters and power supplies\u00a0 integrated into it.\u00a0 Constant security is essential as a breach in the bund is unthinkable.<\/p>\n

Some one will say, is this pure futuristic dreaming\u201d? Not at all. drone delivery may well be an only approach under extreme conditions of flooding.\u00a0 Defeating terrorism was claimed to be an impossible dream. The de-mining and\u00a0 infra-structure development just after 2009, inclusive of the completion of the Yal Devi train in 2014\u00a0 seemed\u00a0 an impossible dream to some economists who pointed to the 2008 market collapse.\u00a0 They predicted that the 300,000 IDPs rescued from Nadikadal will still be there in Manik Farm,\u00a0 even after a decade! They were wrong.<\/p>\n

The region that is likely to go under water should be declared a Tenth province\u201d, but in effect an entity similar to the Mahweli Board, and held under the central government because of its encompassing nature,\u00a0 affecting the security of the whole island.\u00a0 The width of the maritime strip will vary as the need changes. The 10th Province is empowered to acquire any inland areas that it may needed.\u00a0 We have precedents for this, in the over-riding trans-provincial mandate vested in national projects like the Galoya project or the Mahaweli Project. The newly launched port city,\u00a0 the capital city and many other maritime cities and ports will automatically fall under the purview of the 10th province. If necessary, we may avoid the name 10th Province\u201d and call it the Maritime Protection Authority (MPA) to avoid misunderstandings.\u00a0 Its powers can be legislated\u00a0 to deal with climate change, unstoppable rise of the sea level, tsunamis and floods, sea erosion, refugees, smuggling and naval operations, mineral rights in the sea etc. Evacuation of the residents in the coastal cities of Sri Lanka and re-settling them in higher\u00a0 ground will be one of the major tasks of the MPA. These are\u00a0 traditional powers of\u00a0 the central government and they can be delegated\u00a0 as needed. But where necessary, the constitution can be amendment. Furthermore, the Tenth province\u201d will effectively create a geographic ceinture\u201d ensuring the unitarity\u00a0 of the country at a level unmatchable\u00a0 by any constitutional tinkering.<\/p>\n

The first maps seen in Fig. 2 shows the flooding from heavy rain that we can expect in the future.\u00a0 The 10th province has to acquire all of the Jaffna province and\u00a0 initially about 20 km inland in most provinces, even from the very outset, while this width may need further increase as the threat increases. The boundary of the 10th province will not split\u201d any intervening cities, but\u00a0 include them whole, with the need for security from the effects of global warming as the primary criterion to be satisfied.<\/p>\n

Colombo residents know of frequent floods stretching from Colombo to Padukka, and\u00a0 how even the parliament in Kotte became accessible only by boat.\u00a0 An additional cause of storms\u00a0 (besides heated oceans) hides in the Indonesian sea bed. The 2011 rains storms and simultaneous flooding in many parts of the world may have been triggered by the effect on the weather due to the tipping of the Indo-Australian Plate. According to the Zetas ThinkTank, tipping up to a predicted three-meter rise along the curve under Sumatra and Java or a drop on the western side may have happened. Indonesia has likewise started to slowly sink since\u00a0 December 2010.<\/p>\n

Once a dyke or bund is built to prevent the water coming in, heavy rain cannot flow out into the sea.\u00a0 In fact, even without the bund, the recent flood waters remain blocked by human constructions. Hence the coastal regions marked in the maps as the protective 10th\u00a0\u00a0 province (maritime strip) will become flood basins. Existing rivers will also overflow. Their banks need to be strengthened, widened and raised \u2013 a program cutting across provincial boundaries. In addition, large-capacity flood pumps to lift the water above the dyke and discharge to the sea are needed. The energy needed has to be generated by innovative harvesting of\u00a0 solar\u00a0 and wind forces that trigger the storms, and waves in the overheated ocean. The Dutch, with a third of the land below sea level used their windmills for pumping out the water. Today electric pumps coordinated by computers and sensors do the job.\u00a0 Holland has voted two billion euros for their new flood freedom for rivers\u201d project\u00a0 addressing global warming, while Sri Lanka has no programs in place.<\/p>\n

The fate of the Jaffna Peninsula.<\/strong>
\nThe Jaffna peninsula is doomed for several reasons. It is a series of low-lying locations connected by causeways built during the days of the D. S. Senanayake government and prior to it, often in the face of dire opposition from Northern MPs who feared low-caste\u201d villages\u00a0 becoming uppity\u201d if free access becomes available. The low elevation of peninsula makes it an\u00a0 easy victim of inundation, as testified by both maps in Fig. 2.<\/p>\n

Another serious problem arises from the unusual hydrology of the Peninsula. The fresh water of the Jaffnese depends on the\u00a0 existence (via the so-called Herzberg mechanism) of several lenses\u201d of fresh water supported by an underlying lens of brackish water (see Fig. 3\u00a0 extracted from Sirimanne’s 1952 Presidential Address to the CAAS).\u00a0 The maximum thickness of a freshwater lens is roughly the thickness of the soil above the mean sea level. Hence, the rising sea will drive out and destroy the fresh water lenses.\u00a0 That is, besides the permanent inundation of the Jaffna peninsula,\u00a0 Jaffna will completely loose its water supply. Before this happens, archeological and other irreplaceable objects, places of worship etc.,\u00a0 should be raised\u00a0 and protected, while the population has to be evacuated to the south. The destruction of the fresh water limestone aquifers will happen long before the actual rising of the sea level, due to more frequent marine storms and waves generated by the heightened low-pressure conditions in the Bay of Bengal.<\/p>\n

A dyke around the Peninsula will not protect the land or its water since the sea will percolate through the lime stone via the brackish-water lens. The only way to avoid total abandonment is to build an artificial elevated city\u00a0 dependent on rainwater and\u00a0 desalination for its drinking water.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Fig 3 The\u00a0 hydrology of the Jaffna peninsula after Sirimanne, 1952. The salt water lens is marked BWF\u201d, while FWZ indicastes Fresh Water Zones. The numbers (1)-(4) indcate four types of wells. For details see\u00a0 Arumugam, or Panabokke and Perera, Ground Water resources of Sri lanka (2005).<\/p>\n

The effect of global warming will have a similar serious effects on the coastal regions of Tamil Nadu.\u00a0 Jaffna can expect no help from TN, but there may even be refugees arriving from TN to Sri Lanka.
\nGiven that the Jaffna Peninsula\u00a0 will go under the sea, and also loose its drinking water, it\u00a0 will be abandoned. But it is still important to have a raised dyke to access the area. The land (i.e., the\u00a0 peninsula) under salt water may be used for\u00a0\u00a0 marine culture of\u00a0 lobsters, shrimps, crabs, cephalopods, bony fishes, sharks, batoid fishes etc.\u00a0 The low-lying Madakalapuwa (Batticaloa) area will also need evacuation. However, unlike in Jaffna, the Eastern coast need not loose its fresh water.<\/p>\n

The Problem of IDPs<\/strong>
\nThe rising\u00a0 sea level will displace everyone from the Jaffna peninsula and large parts of the remaining NP.\u00a0 The coastal\u00a0 Eastern province too\u00a0 will produce many IDPs . This is seen from the 2011 flood pattern as well as the 2004\u00a0 map of Tsunami affected regions. As many of these IDPs will be Tamil speakers from the less fortunate strata, direct absorption into any region will be resisted by the host populations, even in preponderantly Tamil regions. Bambalapitiya, Wellawatte and such areas\u00a0 in the coastal belt of the 10th province will need evacuation, and the available free land will be severely limited as priority will be\u00a0 for coastal buffers of flood basins. Ironically, the IDP camps in Menik Farm, Dollar Farm, etc will have to be reopened and maintained indefinitely welcoming a constant stream of IDPs as the sea level rises. Judging from the Mahawamsa account, the Manik Farm\u201d region was known as Mahathalithagama\u201d, and even then housed refugees, e.g., in the 9th century, during the invasions of the Pandyan king Sri Vallabha\u201d!<\/p>\n

The IDPs evacuated from the low-lying parts of the coastal cities in the south can be more easily accommodated in the central high ground. Thus we see that a major responsibility of\u00a0 MPA\u00a0 is the evacuation and re-settlement of displaced people.<\/p>\n

The role of the remaining provinces.<\/strong>
\nGiven the impact of global warming on a tiny island like Sri Lanka, she has no option but to take\u00a0 drastic steps. They may seem draconian today, but the more we wait, the more difficult it will be. At the beginning it will be\u00a0 surveyors and scientists marking out the topography and planning how to tackle the project, just as with the Mahaweli program. Once it is recognized that Jaffna is doomed, and that much of the Eastern coast will be a lake of brackish water, the leaders of the Jaffna peninsula well entrenched\u00a0 in Karuavkaddu\u00a0 (Cinnamon Gdns) will find little solace or loginc in devolution. The south has never supported such devolution. Hence the provincial administrations can be disbanded and replaced with local bodies (as existed prior to 13A) to have a more efficient and inexpensive government.<\/p>\n

In any case, all administrative entities will be subject to\u00a0 trans-provincial authorities like the Mahawel Board, or the MPA, i.e., the proposed 10th Province along the coast. Here we digress to review a peculiar proposal to re-demarcate the provincial boundaries along the river boundaries. In our view, it is a very retrograde proposal because one side of the river, e.g., the left bank, will be placed under one administration, while the other side of the river (right bank) will be under another administration, splitting villages bound by close kinships and commerce. In reality, the communities on both sides of the river are unified by the river, use it as a conduit for transport, fishing, social and economic activity. They are linked by ecological concerns and should not be under different administrations, as proposed by Dr. Madduma Bandara. However, since the Provincial Councils\u00a0 (i.e., 13 A) model becomes\u00a0 irrelevant under the permanent-emergency\u201d conditions created by global warming, PCs\u00a0 can be disbanded.<\/p>\n

The cost of the project.<\/strong>
\nSomeone will say, what about the cost?\u00a0 At the start\u00a0 it is only a bund\u201d some 900 miles along the shore, and a region with a floating inner boundary set at least 20 km inland.\u00a0 The MPA may have to spend as much as the state spent to fight the Eelam wars in fighting the sea. In this case it is a recurring expense that we have to maintain for decades to come. If the project is delayed the costs will mount fast, especially as other countries also face the same problems and lock up the available engineering talent and raw materials. Not doing so will devastate the whole country irrevocably and cause human suffering. The next round of floods may well\u00a0 engulf Meethotamulla and float the rotting garbage back to the Presidential secretariat alleged to be part of the toxin-free nation\u201d!\u00a0 A weak government cannot engage or galvanize the people to do it. It will be an immense challenge involving much pain and hardship. But doing it is\u00a0 a do or die\u201d, while the do\u201d will create jobs, stimulate economic activity and innovation. The modern Sri Lankans can be proud of an achievement paralleling the genius of their ancient hydraulic civilization. But if they fail, a large part of their land will become a brackish swamp, with 22 million people crowded into the middle area of the right-hand map of Figure 2, with little to eat, poor housing and subject to frequent bad weather, disease and untrammeled crime. We see it in Haiti, a land buffeted by hurricanes and other forces of nature.<\/p>\n

The initially needed money can be raised by abandoning stupid projects destined to create more urban concrete,\u00a0 asphalt, and polluted spaces. The\u00a0 already technologically obsolete megalopolis project should be replace by a modern eco-friendly re-planning of the whole country. A good part of the meagalopolis\u201d, being in the 10th province, will be marked out for buffer flood basins. The towns will have to evacuate to the country.\u00a0\u00a0 Commuting to office is unnecessary as most work can be done from home online.\u00a0\u00a0 Video-conferencing and social media usage from playing bridge to courting and flirting are now routine. All that can be personalized and less robot-like\u201d since holographic\u00a0 reality is almost at the market place. A developing country has an advantage as it can leap-frog over several stages of technology, just as Sri Lanka moved to\u00a0 cell-phones while skipping land-line phones. Commuting to work causes enormous traffic jams, pollution and\u00a0 stress. Costs of maintaining multi-lane highways, office buildings and services\u00a0 are staggering. They will not be viable with the battle against the sea. Cost of having office space\u00a0 in Colombo estimates to at least Rs. 20,000 per year per employee! It will cost more with global worming. Cost of bringing them to office is 70% of the cost of the imports of the petroleum corporation. Health costs due to stress, causing diabetes and hypertension,\u00a0 congestion and crime in cities etc., are incalculable.\u00a0 The petroleum and diesel fumes, particulate dust and other class-I\u00a0 toxins are more deadly than anything banned in Ven. Ratana’s so-called\u00a0 toxin-free nation\u201d.<\/p>\n

The planned coal-fired power stations, needed to keep the megalopolis running, and the mounds of garbage that it will generate\u00a0 add to this megalopolis-pollution that will asphyxiate the whole nation and its ecosystem. Every roof top should be mandated to carry solar panels, and the power will be sorely needed to run the pumps pushing the\u00a0 regularly occurring flood waters out to sea.<\/p>\n

We are forced to\u00a0 abandon the megalopolis and re-structure work, commuting etc., to save money and build the 10th province that will girdle round the island and protect it from the sea. Of course this cannot be done overnight \u2013 it will take decades. But the moment it is written into the constitution or legislated as a Maritime protection authority, defining its\u00a0 scope and powers, it will have a start. All the traditional provinces will give up\u00a0 their maritime areas in forming the 10th province.\u00a0 We expect ready movement of people and cultural integration within it, linking closely with the Port city being built by the Chinese.<\/p>\n

Of course, while we are barely thinking of all this, Singapore and even Maldives have already got planners working on such protective structures that will ring their lands and keep the sea away. Holland, the masters of dykes and below-sea level lands are spending big money.\u00a0 All this can be true in Sri Lanka only if it can dare to have the vision and legislate for it.<\/p>\n

The 10th Province will also ensure the unitary integrity of the land by its geographic encirclement of the whole country and administered by the central government. We can also take a cue from Singapore, which has ensured ethnic harmony by requiring that no local region will have a preponderantly\u00a0 mono-ethnic or mono-cultural character.\u00a0 The ocean will claim the traditional homelands\u201d claimed by Eelamists to be its own. The cry of a dissident Tamil writer speaking for the depressed\u201d citizens of the North will come true due to the forces of nature. Sebastian Rasalingam was a frequent voice about a decade ago. His essay on the need to Sinhalize the North and Tamilize the South\u201d (June 29, 2007 Sri Lanka Guardian http:\/\/www.srilankaguardian.org\/2011\/06\/sinhalization-of-north-and-tamilzation.html<\/a>), should be compulsory reading for the constitution makers of Sri Lanka. Ironically enough, the people of the North and the South will be forced to live in the high ground of the land, irrespective of their respective ethnic prejudices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Chandre Dharmawardana, Ottawa, Canada The proposed constitution has provoked much debate, but mainly within the framework of traditional thinking with emphasis on the usual issues, i.e., Unitary and\u00a0 Devolved power, the place of Buddhism, or the executive presidency.\u00a0 Whether devolution should be district-based\u00a0 or province-based has been debated for at least 50 years, with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[85],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chandre-dharmawardana"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70297","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70297"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70297\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70297"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70297"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70297"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}