{"id":80758,"date":"2018-09-07T17:36:20","date_gmt":"2018-09-07T23:36:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=80758"},"modified":"2018-09-07T09:52:55","modified_gmt":"2018-09-07T16:52:55","slug":"the-jvp-has-tabled-the-20a-the-final-battle-for-the-future-of-sri-lanka-has-begun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2018\/09\/07\/the-jvp-has-tabled-the-20a-the-final-battle-for-the-future-of-sri-lanka-has-begun\/","title":{"rendered":"THE JVP HAS TABLED THE 20A:\u00a0 THE \u2018FINAL BATTLE\u2019 FOR THE FUTURE OF SRI LANKA HAS BEGUN"},"content":{"rendered":"

DHARSHAN WEERASEKERA<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n

It has happened as was to have been foreseen.\u00a0 A morally, intellectually and financially bankrupt Government has played its last hand to try and stay in power beyond 2020.\u00a0 I have argued in previous articles that, the JVP with 4 members in Parliament will not even dream of bringing a constitutional amendment if they didn\u2019t have the backing of the UNP for it, and that means Ranil is ultimately behind the present venture.<\/p>\n

I am annexing to this article a previous article of mine titled, \u2018An Open Letter to Mr. Mahinda Rakapaksa re the JVP\u2019s 20A,\u2019 written in May 2018 and published on lankaweb.com<\/em> on the eve of the JVP\u2019s first attempt at tabling the 20A.\u00a0 It contains my arguments on what I consider to be the real reasons behind the 20A, what Ranil is ultimately trying to gain with this amendment, and how I think the Government will try to get MR and the JO to back it.\u00a0 So, I will not repeat those arguments here.<\/p>\n

In this article, I will simply list what I think are the strengths and weaknesses of the Sinhalayo<\/em> on the one hand who have to somehow or other defeat the 20A, and on the other the Sirisena-Wickremasinghe combine (i.e. the \u2018Government\u2019 and its assorted allies including especially India, the U.S., and the Tamil Diaspora) who will do their utmost to get the amendment passed, and make a few recommendations as to what the Sinhalayo<\/em> can do to try and win this fight.<\/p>\n

THE SINHALAYO<\/em><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

STRENGTHS<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The Sinhalayo<\/em> are exhausted, battered and bruised after three years of \u2018yahapalanaya,\u2019 but they are still standing, i.e. nothing irrevocable has happened yet.\u00a0 For instance a new Constitution generated by the \u2018Constitutional Assembly\u2019 set up under the Framework Resolution of March 2016 has not been passed.\u00a0 It should be noted that, around August \u2013 October last year there was a very real possibility that such a thing might happen.<\/li>\n
  2. The Sinhalayo<\/em> have the support of overwhelming majority of the Buddhist clergy or Maha Sangha<\/em>.\u00a0 This is a tremendous moral as well as political asset.<\/li>\n
  3. The Sinhalayo<\/em> have good leaders.\u00a0 By this I don\u2019t mean the politicians, but rather the group of men who led the war against the LTTE, leaders whose loyalty, commitment and love for the country are beyond question, and therefore have the personal credibility to command the respect and allegiance of the Sinhalayo<\/em>.<\/li>\n
  4. The Sinhalayo<\/em> still have an \u2018Old Guard\u2019 of intellectuals who have been writing, lecturing and in general agitating on behalf of the Sinhalayo<\/em> for decades. They know their \u2018enemy\u2019 very well, including most if not all his tricks, and can advise the Sinhalayo<\/em> accordingly.<\/li>\n
  5. The Sinhalayo<\/em> have China<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    WEAKNESSES<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. The Sinhalayo<\/em> are divided.\u00a0 The grave danger is that in the coming days and weeks the discussion over the 20A will degenerate into a debate over the pros and cons of abolishing the Executive Presidency.\u00a0 The reality is that, in order to abolish the Presidency, a referendum is needed, and I\u2019m no longer of the view that the Government is prepared to risk a referendum.\u00a0 So, abolishing the Presidency is not the real game here.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      In my view, what the Government will do is have the Supreme Court rule that a referendum is needed, then either delete or amend the clauses that [court says] trigger the referendum, and pass the remainder with a 2\/3 majority.\u00a0 Then, at the Committee Stage, following the tactic that was used in the Provincial Councils Elections Amendment Act, the Government will bring in an entirely different text, or a substantially different one from the one that was originally gazetted, one that perhaps even makes Sri Lanka\u00a0 into an \u2018orumiththa nadu,\u2019 and adopt it.<\/p>\n

      The Sinhalayo<\/em> must understand very clearly why they must resist the 20A.\u00a0 The Sinhalayo<\/em> must resist the 20A because it is a tactic being used by a corrupt and unaccountable government to bring in changes to the Constitution that will cause the interests of the Sinhalayo<\/em> irrevocable harm.\u00a0 It has nothing to do with whether or not one likes the Executive Presidency.\u00a0 If the Executive Presidency is a problem, then it can be made a campaign issue at the next elections.<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. The Sinhalayo<\/em> are poor compared to the Government and its foreign backers.\u00a0 So, in general the Sinhalayo<\/em> cannot spend as much time and energy campaigning against the 20A, as their opponents will do in promoting it.<\/li>\n
      2. The Sinhalayo<\/em> don\u2019t have the organizational capacity to mobilize for a referendum if one is needed.\u00a0 (As I mentioned earlier, I don\u2019t think the Government will risk going for a referendum, but if they decide to roll the dice and go for one, the Sinhalayo<\/em> are in real trouble.)<\/li>\n
      3. The JO, which supposedly represents the Sinhalayo<\/em> has proved itself thoroughly inefficient and incompetent in carrying out that trust, as for example shown by the JO\u2019s inability to capitalize on the results of the 10th<\/sup> February Local Government elections.<\/li>\n
      4. The Sinhalayo<\/em> do not have an alternative to the 20A.\u00a0 One of the main challenges that the advocates of the 20A will throw at the Sinhalayo<\/em> is that they (Sinhalayo<\/em>) can only protest against things but cannot present anything positive or substantive of their own in respect of constitutional reform.\u00a0 At present, the Sinhaloyo<\/em> have no reply to this challenge.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        THE GOVERNMENT<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

        STRENGTHS<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. The Government has a 2\/3 majority in Parliament.<\/li>\n
        2. The Government has the support of India and the United States, who want to prevent China from gaining a foothold in the island.<\/li>\n
        3. The Government has money to spend on political campaigns.<\/li>\n
        4. The Government has a well-oiled propaganda machine including NGO\u2019s capable of shaping public opinion.<\/li>\n
        5. The Government controls the media and so will control much of the public discourse on the 20A in the coming days and weeks.\u00a0 This, along with the matter in point \u20184\u2019 above will help the government shape public opinion in respect of the 20A in the coming days and weeks.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          WEAKNESSES<\/strong><\/p>\n

            \n
          1. Corruption, dishonesty, venality and incompetence of most if not all of the members of the government, which no amount of propaganda and other such things can gloss over.<\/li>\n
          2. \u00a0Lack of a coherent vision or policy for the country other than slogans,<\/li>\n
          3. The fundamental lack of appeal to the Sinhalayo<\/em><\/li>\n
          4. The country is in a bad way.\u00a0 The economy is in shambles.<\/li>\n
          5. Fundamental illegitimacy of the \u2018National Government.\u2019<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            The gravest danger at the moment is that, according to rumor, Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa has been enticed into supporting the 20A in exchange for being made the Prime Minister at some time in the near future.\u00a0 I repeat, this is only rumor, but nevertheless something that the Sinhalayo<\/em> must take seriously.<\/p>\n

            I hardly think MR will be so shortsighted as to fall for a \u2018deal\u2019 such as the above.\u00a0 For instance, who would be appointing him PM?\u00a0 Clearly, it would be Sirisena.\u00a0 Recall that, as recently as May 2018 if I\u2019m not mistaken, Mr. Sirisena was bemoaning the fact that MR had been given a helicopter on the morning of 9th<\/sup> January 2009 in order to fly to Tangalle after his defeat at the Presidential elections.\u00a0 And this is the same Sirisena who is now supposedly going to present MR with nothing less that the Premiership on a platter!<\/p>\n

            I need not mention that, Sirisena lured MNR with the \u2018bait\u2019 of the Premiership in the run-up to the 2015 general elections also, until he yanked it away at the last moment.<\/p>\n

            I won\u2019t waste time arguing about this matter anymore.\u00a0 Suffice it to say that, in my view, Sirisena is not interested in giving MR anything.\u00a0 Sirisena wants to bury<\/em> MR once for all, and the sooner MR realizes it the better for everybody, especially the Sinhalayo<\/em>. \u00a0The Sinhalayo<\/em>, and no one else, will make MR Prime Minster in 2020.\u00a0 He does not need Sirisena or Ranil, and far less the Indians<\/em>, to become PM.<\/p>\n

            RECOMMEDATIONS<\/strong><\/p>\n

            Just to be on the safe side, it is time the Sinhalayo<\/em> registered another political party, to be kept in reserve in the event that they have to field their own candidate.\u00a0 The 10th<\/sup> February LG polls demonstrated that the Sinhalayo<\/em> are no longer going to stick with parties and even individuals just for the sake of doing so, or simply because they may have traditionally or habitually done so.\u00a0 What is important is that the parties and individuals in question protect the interests of the Sinhalayo<\/em>, and do it with actions rather than mere words.\u00a0 So, if the JO and the SLPP know that the Sinhalayo<\/em> will not stand for any nonsense, I am quite sure they will think twice before cutting \u2018deals\u2019 on the 20A.<\/p>\n

            ANNEX<\/strong><\/p>\n

            [Authors note:\u00a0 The following article was published on www.lankaweb.com<\/a> on 29th<\/sup> May 2018]<\/em><\/p>\n

            AN OPEN LETTER TO MR. MAHINDA RAJAPAKSA, FORMER PRESIDENT OF SRI LANKA RE THE JVP\u2019S 20A AND ALSO CONTINUING ATTEMPTS BY THE GOVERNMENT TO BRING A NEW CONSTITUTION <\/strong><\/p>\n

            DHARSHAN WEERASEKERA, Attorney-at-Law<\/strong><\/p>\n

            Dear Mr. President<\/strong>:\u00a0 The newspapers report that the JVP has filed the 20A with the Speaker.\u00a0 Independently of this, there are reports that the Constitutional Steering Committee has requested its \u2018experts\u2019 to prepare a Final Report and Constitutional Proposal.[1]<\/a>\u00a0 The Steering Committee filed its Interim Report in September 2017, and at least as far as is known to the public, debate on the said Report in Parliament was put off indefinitely<\/em> in January 2018.<\/p>\n

            The point is this.\u00a0 Having studied the tactics of Sirisena and Ranil (\u2018Siri-Wiki\u2019) for nearly three years now, I am confident these latest attempts at amending the Constitution are their last ditch effort to postpone elections in 2020, and either stay in power till 2025 or beyond, or at any rate ensure that the \u2018Yahapalayana\u2019 agenda, so devastating to the interests of the Sinhalas as well as the country as a whole, continues beyond 2020.<\/p>\n

            You are the undisputed Leader of the Sinhalas.\u00a0 I am convinced that, what is now shaping up is the \u2018Final Battle\u2019 between Siri-Wiki and those backing them on the one hand, and the Sinhalas on the other.\u00a0 Your conduct will be the decisive factor in who ultimately wins this battle.\u00a0 The question is whether you take a rock-solid stance against these attempts to change the Constitution, or waver, hedge and equivocate?\u00a0 I would like to take a few moments to bring the following five matters to your attention:<\/p>\n

              \n
            1. The Peril that the Sinhalas are facing<\/li>\n
            2. Siri-Wiki\u2019s options at the moment<\/li>\n
            3. Siri-Wiki\u2019s Plan<\/li>\n
            4. The tactic they have used to trap you during these past three years, and what I think will be done this time also<\/li>\n
            5. My appeal to you<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n