{"id":91714,"date":"2019-07-27T03:44:53","date_gmt":"2019-07-27T10:44:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=91714"},"modified":"2019-07-27T03:44:53","modified_gmt":"2019-07-27T10:44:53","slug":"genocide-claims-number-games-and-their-margins-of-error","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2019\/07\/27\/genocide-claims-number-games-and-their-margins-of-error\/","title":{"rendered":"Genocide Claims, Number Games and their margins of error."},"content":{"rendered":"

By Chandre Dharmawardana, Canada<\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n

June 23, 1983, known as Black July<\/strong>\u201d was a day of shame for Sri Lanka where a government calling itself a Dharmista Rajya\u201d (a Righteous Regime)\u00a0 permitted, aided and abetted armed mobs to attack a section of its defenseless citizens — civilian Tamils.\u00a0 The fact that there were looters or the possibility that other forces fished in troubled waters (http:\/\/www.island.lk\/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=74181),\u00a0 or that most DIG’s of the time were Tamils (http:\/\/www.island.lk\/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=74047), etc.,\u00a0 are irrelevant to the very clear-cut main issue. That state-aided terror happened in the CAPITAL itself is a FACT and not some allegation based on a numbers game of guessing how many Tamils lived in the Metropolis before and after the event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand,\nthe claim of Genocide during the last days of the Eelam wars,  adopted as resolutions in the Northern\nProvincial Council of Sri Lanka, (http:\/\/www.sundaytimes.lk\/150222\/columns\/wigneswaran-roasts-his-ethnic-nuts-over-lankas-crackling-racial-fire-136875.html) and in three municipalities in Canada (http:\/\/www.island.lk\/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=206922), as well as in various rallies sponsored\nby Tamil Diaspora groups in many countries is a very different matter. Lumping\nthis alleged genocide with Black July is to lower  Black July itself and diminish it to the\nlevel of the alleged but unproven genocide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors of the\nDarusman report (https:\/\/www.un.org\/News\/dh\/infocus\/Sri_Lanka\/POE_Report_Full.pdf<\/a>) that came up with the figure of 40,000 were\nnot scientists or statisticians  who\nroutinely deal with quantitative measures and their interpretation. In fact,\nany such person would note the lack of \nerror bars\u201d stated  in the\nDarusman analysis, or in most such studies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we determine the speed of light in an undergraduate laboratory experiment, the result usually comes to about 299000 km per second plus or minus 3.7%. That is, the actual speed of light may be anything between\u00a0 287000km\/sec and 310000 km\/sec. So the measurement has a margin of error of plus or minus 11100 km\/sec., while the most probable estimated value is 299000 km\/sec. That kind of caution is not exercised when people talk of the 299000 IDPs rescued from the LTTE cordon during the first three weeks of May 2009. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the upper and\nlower estimates of the speed of light, namely, 287,000 and 310,000, only three\nsignificant figures are given, while the others are rounded to zeros. Since our\nerror is 3.7%,  strictly speaking, one\nshould give the lower and upper values as 290,000 and 310,000 km\/sec., keeping just\ntwo significant figures. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, France Harrison, writing on the death toll in the Huffington Post<\/em> (17. Dec. 2012) naively gives a figure of 101,748, i.e., a\u00a0 number with six significant figures!<\/em> Such accuracy calls for one part in a million precision! Clearly, Harrison has no idea of error bars or significant numbers in giving a probable estimate. If this number had been given as 102,000 we may at least assume that France Harrison is numerically educated, although that does not make the figure correct. Unfortunately, the books and writings show that she has little or no education in quantitative methods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike measurements in physics, measurements of populations, numbers dead, etc., are open to large errors, not repeatable, and not credible unless corroborated by several independent sources. The numbers must also be internally consistent. For instance, when a population is shelled,\u00a0 for every person killed, some 3-4\u00a0 persons are also injured. If Harrison’s figure of 102,000 killed was used, we should expect some\u00a0 300,000 injured among those rescued from\u00a0 the war zone in May 2009.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet, these\nclaims are used to even refuse visas to members of the military or Police who\nmay attempt to visit friends and family in western countries like Canada and\nAustralia where diaspora groups have substantial electoral power. In contrast,\nUS military men tainted by excesses in Iraq and Afghanistan are accorded the\nred carpet via  Status of Forces\nAgreements and various  ‘Acquisitions and\nCross-Servicing Agreements’.  The\ngenocide claims  have been enshrined in\njudgments at Kangaroo courts in Ireland and Bremen, run by morally militant men\nand clerics  combating evil\u201d with\nrighteous indignation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estimates of\nthe probable number killed (death toll).<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The claim of\n40,000 dead given in  the first Darusman\nreport (2011) to Secy. General Ban Ki-Moon was followed by a second UN report\n(2012) which claimed a final-phase death toll of 70,000. This implies that\neven the most probable estimate given in 2011 was in  error by 20,000, and the error bars are even\nbigger.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the best\nanalyses of the available data is found in the report by the Marga Institute\n(2013 – The Numbers Game; Politics of Retributive Justice,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.scribd.com\/document\/132499266\/The-Numbers-Game-Politics-of-Retributive-Justice). The four-part article in the Island Newspaper (4-Feb-2014 to 8-Feb-2014) by Prof. G. H. Peiris can also be mentioned where the difficulties of estimating errors, injured-to-death ratio, etc., let alone giving a death toll are succinctly\u00a0 examined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given these difficulties, the death-toll figures given by various organizations are destined to differ by wide margins. We have: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

US state department 7000-8000, UN-internal estimate 7737, University Teachers for Human Rights, Jaffna (UTHR-J) 20000-40000, The International\u00a0 Crisis Group (ICG) 35000. The Marga Institute study in 2013 proposed a death toll of 15,000\u00a0 while the recent British House of Lord’s study led by Lord Naseby in 2017 used information from previously unavailable British diplomatic cables as well, and estimated a figure close to 7000.\u00a0 The Sri Lankan Dept. of census and statistics, using a field survey in 2011-2012 released a death toll figure of 7400 for the last phase of the war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

War crimes are those perpetrated on unarmed civilians by armed warring groups, be they government soldiers or those who wage war against the state. If attacks on civilians are part of a deliberate policy of eliminating one ethnic group, that becomes genocide. The UN itself has not claimed that there was a genocide of Tamils during the last days of the Eelam war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Serious difficulties arise in defining civilians\u201d in the context of the Eelam wars as the LTTE recruited civilians and even children by force or coercion and gave military training creating Makkal Padai\u201d (people’s armies). The Makkal Padai consisted of Eelappadai\u201d and Gramappadai\u201d, each consisting of some 5000, i.e., a total of 10,000 conscripted civilians (Defence ministry figures). The LTTE\u2019s deliberate use of civilians as well as protected facilities like hospitals, schools, churches, and administrative buildings, as a cover for its military operation, is also well established. Furthermore, using a human shield\u201d and also creating a humanitarian catastrophe were part of the tactics of the LTTE in its end game. In resonance, strident street demonstrations by pro-LTTE diaspora groups in the West pushed for Right to Protect\u201d (R2P) interventions in Sri Lanka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, the Darusman report acknowledges some of these difficulties and states (in its paragraph 239) the following. … International humanitarian law prohibits the location of military objectives near densely populated civilian areas,….Credible allegations point to a violation of this provision … that the LTTE deliberately located or used mortar pieces, other light artillery, military vehicles, mortar pits, bunkers, and trenches in proximity to civilian areas. These locations included hospitals and concentrations of IDPs, including in each of the No-Fire-Zones\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Error Bars for\nthe data  used by the Darusman report.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Marge Institute study points out that the Darusman report used the material gathered by the UTHR-J as the database for arriving at the 40,000 death toll in their first report. The number was increased to 70,000 using more subjective considerations and projections based on what were assumed to be reported numbers of injured arriving at hospitals in the war zone. However, most analysts give little credence to the 70,000 estimates and instead quoted the 40,000 death toll. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Darusman report depends crucially on the accuracy of two numbers. These are: (i) the probable number of people in the second No-Fire-Zone in February 2009; This number N1 may be anything from 300,000 to 330,000; (ii) the actual number N2 of IDPs rescued by the army on breaching the LTTE cordon in the second and third week of May 2009. A probable value of\u00a0 N2 is given as 299,000. It is the difference between these two numbers, i.e., N1-N2,\u00a0 that is the core quantity used to claim that some 40,000 people are unaccounted for, and allegedly willfully massacred,\u00a0 entirely by the army with no killings ascribed to the LTTE, in the last days of the Eelam war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first number N1 used in the Darusman report depends on an estimate given by a single individual, Mr. K. Parthipan, the Assistant Government Agent (AGA) of Mullativu. He informed (in a ‘Situation Report’, 2009)\u00a0 that Almost the entire people from all AGA Divisions of the District are displaced. The IDPs of Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi and parts of Vavuniya, Mannar and Jaffna Districts are now staying in Mullaitivu District, \u2026,\u00a0 The population of Mullaitivu District at present is about 81,000 families, consisting of about 330,000 persons\u201d. This number was not based on headcount, but an estimate given by a few grama-sevakas<\/em> (village officers). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The number was\nused to ask for an increase in the food and other commodities sent to the Vanni\nthrough the UN World Food Program (WFP) and the International Committee of the\nRed Cross (ICRC).  I n fact, the Darusman\nreport accuses the government of not providing adequate food to the Vanni\nduring the time of the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government had issued the ICRC 534,227 metric tons of food and medicine to the conflict zone. There were also UN\/WFP convoys providing food and medicine, and the UN-Darusman report mentions 7,435 metric tons of food delivered over 5 months but omits the 534,227 tons from ICRC. By ignoring these facts, the Darusman-report gives the wrong picture (https:\/\/dh-web.org\/cansl1-HRW.html#ICRC-Food).\u00a0 A measure of food needs accepted by the UN can be obtained from the UN-run Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps in northern Kenya: It has ~535,000 refugees and was supplied 10,000 metric tons\/month by UN\/WFP.\u00a0 This was prior to a 20% cut in November 2013 (https:\/\/news.un.org\/en\/story\/2013\/10\/454302-funding-shortage-forces-un-reduce-food-rations-refugees-northern-kenya#.UuF_p6oo7lY). This suggests that the 300,000-hostage population held by the LTTE would need 5610 tons\/month, or about 28,400 tons for 5 months. Hence, using typical UN\/WFP food-supply rates, it clear that roughly four times the needed amount of supplies have been provided by the Sri Lankan government via the ICRC, and the UN\/WFP combined. The LTTE conscripted and hoarded the food.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given that the\npurpose of the number 330,000 was for obtaining more food,  the number is open to  exaggeration. For instance, the AGA can\neasily ignore the fact that some 26,000 to 36,000  IDPs were already in camps outside the LTTE\ncordon in February 2009. This suggests that there were probably 294,000 to\n304,000 people within the LTTE cordon. To this uncertainty, we should also add\nthe fact that some 5000-10,000 people were included in Makkal Padai\u201d, and\nhence the civilian count\u201d  is likely to\nfluctuate by at least 5000, in addition to the uncertainty introduced by the\nlikely exaggeration of the initial number N1. Given that the UNHR-J puts N1 at\n350,000, adding to the uncertainty, we may conclude that N1 is uncertain by as\nmuch as 20,000-40,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The number of IDPs who received sanctuary in May 2009, N2, is about 299,000. This figure does not include IDPs who had arrived earlier and had been cared for and moved to make a place for new arrivals. Furthermore,\u00a0 many new\u00a0 IDPs\u201d were\u00a0 LTTE cadre or members of Makkal Padai and not civilians. There were also many who escaped, or paid their way out and even emigrated. So, N2 itself may be in error by several thousand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A stupid way is to find the weight of the crew of an ocean liner is to weigh the ship with all the crew and then without the crew. But the methodology of the Darusman panel was exactly that. The difference between two such large numbers is subject to gross errors. The 40,000 unaccounted for in the Darusman report is a misleading consequence of taking the difference between two large numbers N1 and N2, already subject to significant uncertainties. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The estimate has not been backed up by the demonstration of any mass graves and other circumstantial evidence, even after 5 years of control of the North by a Tamil-Nationalist provincial council\u00a0 that resolved that there has been a Genocide of the Tamils, not just during the last days of the Eelam war, but ever since independence. These ardent Tamil nationalists ignored the fact that the Tamil population had grown by a factor of at least 3.5 since independence. Thus the demographics go contrary to the genocide claim. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conclusion that no genocide occurred does not mean that no war was committed. Atrocities committed by state agents as well as the LTTE have to be investigated. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The righteous\nindignation of ‘good people’.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is well known that a number of religious fathers and theologians, and good men\u201d working with NGOs and Diaspora groups have been at the helm of the claim that genocide has happened in Sri Lanka during the last days of the Eelam wars. It is less well known that Christopher Hitchens, known for his atheist stance and critical public discourse was one who questioned the\u00a0 Tamil genocide claim and raised strong doubts about it\u00a0 ( see Michael Roberts: https:\/\/thuppahi.wordpress.com\/?s=Hitchens<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Colombian theologian\u00a0 Rev.\u00a0 Fr.\u00a0 Javier Giraldo Moreno came to\u00a0 Sri Lanka to take part in the tenth Tamil Genocide\u201d commemoration, held at Mullivaaykkaal on 18 May 2019, and found in it a spiritually transforming experience\u201d. Fr. Moreno was one of the eleven judges of the so-called Permanent Peoples’ Tribunal (PPT) sittings on Tamil Genocide\u201d held in Ireland and in Bremen Germany. These sittings were arranged under the leadership of Dr. Jude Fernando, an Irish-Sri Lankan Catholic and Dublin Academic who takes the death toll to be 70,000. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Righteous indignation against evil\u201d has been the force used against heresy, be it the Pelagian heresy which claimed that men who follow a good and holy life will go to heaven, or the gnostic heresy of the Cathers, and many others who were massacred en masse<\/em>. The tradition of having witch hunts, tribunals and inquisitions are well entrenched in Western History. Imperialism as a civilizing force\u201d,\u00a0 the Manifest Destiny\u201d of the US, or the emergence of the R2P program, and the Human-Rights commissions directed at smaller nations are the modern manifestation of one aspect of that tradition. The men and women who come to judge, often highly traditional men of the faith who have little training in numbers but rely on their conscience\u201d, have never had any difficulty in pointing the finger at the guilty\u201d. They always indict the sinner with the bigger crime – 70,000 according to Dr. Jude Fernando, and double that, 140,000, according to Rev. Father Rayuppu Joseph who took away the Maddona of the Madu Shrine into LTTE territory for safekeeping!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[The Author was a past Vice-Chancellor of Sri Jayawardenapura University. He is presently affiliated with the University of Montreal, Dept.\u00a0 of Physics.\u00a0 and the National Research Council of Canada.]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Chandre Dharmawardana, Canada June 23, 1983, known as Black July\u201d was a day of shame for Sri Lanka where a government calling itself a Dharmista Rajya\u201d (a Righteous Regime)\u00a0 permitted, aided and abetted armed mobs to attack a section of its defenseless citizens — civilian Tamils.\u00a0 The fact that there were looters or the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[85],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-91714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chandre-dharmawardana"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91714"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91714\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}