{"id":95972,"date":"2019-12-03T15:03:12","date_gmt":"2019-12-03T22:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=95972"},"modified":"2019-12-03T15:03:12","modified_gmt":"2019-12-03T22:03:12","slug":"sri-lankas-presidential-election-2019-a-new-president-and-the-politics-of-balances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2019\/12\/03\/sri-lankas-presidential-election-2019-a-new-president-and-the-politics-of-balances\/","title":{"rendered":"Sri Lanka\u2019s Presidential Election 2019: A New President and the Politics of Balances"},"content":{"rendered":"

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera Courtesy\u00a0<\/em>ISAS,National University of Singapore <\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n

Summary<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The recent Sri Lankan election witnessed the Rajapaksa brothers \u2013 \nGotabaya and Mahinda \u2013 coming to power. Gotabaya, former secretary of \ndefence and a technocrat with little political experience, was elected \npresident while Mahinda, former two-time president who ended the \nprotracted civil war during his term 10 years ago, was sworn in as prime\n minister. The new president faces the twin internal challenges of \nbalancing nationalist and liberal values and introducing a new political\n culture with emphasis on meritocracy and technocracy. On external \nrelations, past Sri Lankan leaders have leaned towards a single power \nfor economic support and this superseded everything else. It will be \ninteresting to see if Gotabaya\u2019s foreign policy will be different from \nthat of his brother and the other leaders, and if he will be able to \nbalance the triple sphere of influence \u2013 India, China and the United \nStates \u2013 with his \u2018neutral\u2019 foreign policy focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Introduction<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have not lost in this election. In a way we have won the Southern\n vote; we just did not receive the votes from North-East and the \nupcountry\u2026 I will ensure I will look after all of you.\u201d These were the \ndeparting words of Mahinda Rajapaksa after his presidential loss in \n2015. The president who left office came back to power after four years,\n this time appointed as prime minister by his brother \u2013 Gotabaya \nRajapaksa \u2013 a historical political incident where two brothers share the\n Executive and the premiership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2015, votes from the ethnic Tamil-dominated former war zone in the\n north of the country and Muslim-dominated areas played a key role in \nPresident Maithripala Sirisena\u2019s victory. It took four years for a \nRajapaksa to seize back the top seat by winning a significant percentage\n of the Sinhalese voter base. The new president, Gotabaya, secured 52.25\n per cent of the votes with a 1.3 million lead, a historic victory \nwithout many votes from the North-East. As articulated by the newly \nelected president, I won from the Sinhalese votes; I expected more \nvotes from the Tamil and Muslim community which I did not receive. I \nwant them to join now.\u201d He has appealed to them to be a part of his \ngrand vision to create a prosperous nation with a new political culture,\n with meritocracy and technocracy emblazed at the helm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reasons for Gotabaya\u2019s Victory<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are three distinct reasons for Gotabaya\u2019s victory. First, the \nSri Lankan economy has been badly managed and the direct effect of \nrising costs was felt by the entire country. Second, the flaws in the \nbipartisan model introduced in 2015, which gradually evolved into a \ncomplete loss of mutual trust between the Executive and prime minister. \nFinally, it was the national security threat that arose from the \nextremist terror attack on Easter Sunday earlier this year. Following \nthe attack, the people\u2019s trust in the government eroded significantly \nand reached its lowest ebb when a Parliamentary Select Committee \nhighlighted serious intelligence gaps and administration flaws in the \ngovernment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the 2019 presidential election, Sri Lanka was at a crossroads, \npitting the neo-liberals against the nationalists. As a symbolic \ngesture, the colour of the new presidential flag depicts dark brown, \nsignifying the rich soil of the nation. The values stem from the deep \nSouth \u2013 the scarf was the symbol the Rajapaksas used to depict their \ncloseness to the soil, and this had much more strength than any other \npolitical slogans used by their opponents. I am from a southern \nSinhalese Buddhist family and I was educated at a Buddhist school \n\u2018Ananda College\u2019. I will ensure principles of Buddhist values will be at\n the forefront in my presidency\u201d, said the newly-elected president at \nhis inauguration at the Ruwanwelisaya Buddhist shrine, the place where \nthe ancient Southern Sinhalese Buddhist King Dutugamunu who united the \nnation left a magnificent edifice to the entire country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adopting Global Best Practices<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While embracing history is significant, it is also important to \nexplore whether history has punished societies that have not evolved. \nAlexis de Tocqueville came from another nation to praise America\u2019s \nembodiment of progressive political ideals. Nations should adapt best \npractices and embrace the values of progressive development in other \nnations. Leaders should be quick to adapt best practices and values from\n them. Many politicians in Sri Lanka\u2019s recent past spoke about bringing \ninspiration from the Singapore model but their words ended up only as \nempty promises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The newly-elected president could enact this change. Perhaps, as a \nreflection of this change, Gotabaya, within his first week in office, \nreduced the number of cabinet portfolios and established a committee for\n future appointments at all government institutional levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sri Lanka\u2019s economic geography matters as much as its political \ngeography. Most past leaders failed to capitalise on the nation\u2019s \neconomic and political geographic significance due to their narrow \npolitical principles and their belief in protectionist measures, thereby\n missing the opportunity to leap forward and be part of the global \neconomy and its value chains. Even Singapore defines her geography by \ninternational connectivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The balance between national and liberal values is clearly visible in\n the Singaporean context. Sri Lanka should develop its capacity to \nconcentrate and harness the flows of goods, services, resources, money, \ntechnology, information and talent which will make it grow into a large \nnation, just like Singapore. For this, Sri Lanka has to go beyond the \nultra-nationalist spirit to embrace what is out there in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strategy of the new president comes during the significant time \nof the 4th Industrial Revolution. The author was present in Davos when \nProfessor Klaus Schwab, Chairman of the World Economic Forum, released \nhis book, The Fourth Industrial Revolution, in 2016, during which time \nSri Lanka\u2019s gross domestic product growth rate was at 4.5 per cent. The \neconomy is expected to grow at its lowest rate of 2.7 per cent in 2019. \nPolitical instability, followed by a weak security environment, was a \nsignificant factor that has pulled the entire country down. When \ncompared to nations such as Bangladesh in the South Asian region, which \nhas managed to stabilise its economy with an eight per cent annual \ngrowth rate, the Sri Lankan economy would need a quick recovery, with a \nparticular increase in foreign direct investment inflows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Value of Democracy and Technocracy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Gotabaya be able to manage the delicate balance between \nultra-nationalist and liberal economic values? Seen as an efficient \nadministrative technocrat with little experience in politics, will he \nembrace the values of the rich school of democracy in his government? \nHow will he embrace his brother\u2019s pro-China foreign policy? And will he \nbe able to create a balance between the triple spheres of influence \n\u2013between India, China and the United States? These are some questions \nthe new leadership will face, and Gotabaya will need to use all of his \nstatecraft to answer them in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One significant internal value the new leader may wish to follow is \ntechnocracy. Sri Lankans are in search of a better government that could\n balance democracy and technocracy \u2013 an area in which the previous \nregime failed miserably. The gap was clearly identified by Gotabaya and \nhe has promised a government with values of technocracy and meritocracy \nunder his leadership. In both his election manifesto and at his \ninaugural speech, these values were re-emphasised by the president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technocracy is the model and policy prescription that was put forward\n as a solution for modern democracies by Parag Khanna, a professor at \nthe Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore \u2013 he published a \nbook on the same subject. He explained that there is a lack of technical\n experts to solve complex government problems in a democracy. \nTechnocracy, as a form of leading governing practice to efficiently \ngovern a polis (the ideal city), was introduced by the Greek philosopher\n Plato as the most preferred form of government, which should be led by a\n committee of public-spirited guardians\u201d. In such a system, the most \nqualified technical experts are chosen based on merit to govern the \nnation. This is a model adopted by progressive nations such as \nSingapore. According to Parag, Technocratic government is built around \nexpert analysis and long-term planning, rather than narrow-minded and \nshort-term populist whims\u2026 Real technocracy has the virtues of being \nboth utilitarian (inclusively seeking the broadest societal benefit) and\n meritocratic (with the most qualified and non-corrupt leaders). Instead\n of ad hoc and reactive politics, technocracies are where political \nscience starts to look like something worthy of the term: a rigorous \napproach to policy.\u201d What Sri Lanka clearly needs is to steer in this \ndirection. Indeed, the island state\u2019s new leadership has already \nrecognised the importance of this model. Accordingly, the \npubic-spirited guardians\u201d will be chosen to address key complex issues \nnot adequately addressed before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foreign Policy Management<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gotabaya is the second leader after Sirimavo Bandaranaike who managed\n to become the head of state without much political experience. While \nSirimavo\u2019s domestic policies had limitations, leading to an erosion of \nthe economy, her foreign policy imperatives were excellent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On foreign policy, the newly-elected president spelt out his policy \nin his election manifesto to maintain friendly relations with other \ncountries from a standpoint of equality\u201d, and to adopt a non-aligned \npolicy in all his foreign dealings and work with all friendly nations on\n equal terms\u201d . His clear position was that, We will not be part of any\n big power rivalry, we will take a neutral position.\u201d Even before his \nmaiden visit to India, Constantino Xavier, a foreign policy fellow at \nBrookings India in New Delhi, explained that Gota will play the China \ncard, but Beijing is now less inclined to repeat the large financial \ninvestments it did five or 10 years ago, due to growing domestic \nopposition and international scrutiny.\u201d Further looking at Indo-Lanka \nforeign policy in the context of the greater global strategy at play in \nthe Indo-Pacific, Xavier stated, Prime Minister [Narendra] Modi\u2019s \nambition to shape the Indo-Pacific great game will fail unless he gets \nGotabaya to play ball and keep China at bay.\u201d It would be wise for India\n not to use its closest neighbour in such a manner as described by \nXavier, since a strong and deep Sino-Lanka relationship is also an \nessential element in Sri Lanka\u2019s foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s deep economic and infrastructure-driven diplomacy on the \nisland state cannot be discounted. From South Asia, Sri Lanka was an \ninitial partner of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) \u2013 a strategic step\n taken by Mahinda during his presidency. China\u2019s goals were explained by\n President Xi Jinping in his congratulatory letter to the newly-elected \npresident: [T]o deepen our practical cooperation within the framework \nof the Belt and Road Initiative, to start a new chapter of China-Sri \nLanka Strategic Cooperative Partnership and to bring more tangible \nbenefits to our two peoples.\u201d During his visit to India from 28 to 30 \nNovember 2019, Gotabaya bluntly and rightly expressed the importance of \nthe strategic asset of the Hambantota port leased out to China during \nhis interview: [The] Sri Lankan government must have control of all \nstrategically important projects.\u201d Viewing the lease of the Hambantota \nport as an unfruitful exercise, he elaborated on its long-lasting \nstrategic implications \u2026these 99-year lease agreements [that the \nprevious government signed] will have an impact on our future.\u201d The \nHambantota port and Chinese infrastructure diplomacy have had many \nconcerned that Beijing was indulging in \u2018debt diplomacy\u2019. Gotabaya has, \nhowever, rejected the claim of a \u2018debt trap\u2019 in his same interview\u2014It \nis also wrong to say there was a debt trap\u201d\u2014and that the Hambantota port\n was leased out due to the government\u2019s inability to finance the \nborrowings from the Chinese.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The total Chinese loan percentage is much less than the sovereign \nbonds and the debt issue is more of a \u2018middle-income trap\u2019 rather than a\n \u2018Chinese debt trap\u2019. The country has advanced from a low-income to \nmiddle-income status, and no longer qualifies for concessional loans \nfrom international institutions. Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow at \nthe German Marshall Fund\u2019s Asia Program and a renowned China expert, \nanalysed the Sri Lankan debt trap as a data point rather than a trend\u201d,\n stating that the perception that China plans to build military bases \nthrough debt-diplomacy is inaccurate\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having said that, the new president will have to astutely exercise \nhis \u2018neutral\u2019 foreign policy posture at a time of geopolitical \nsignificance in Sri Lanka\u2019s surrounding environment, especially the \nIndian Ocean, where neutrality has its own complexity. Sri Lanka should \nnot accept binary choices when it comes to the Indo-Pacific or the BRI. \nIt should be part of both strategies and it should reap maximum benefits\n for its people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gotabaya is seen by the general Sri Lankan public as a leader who is \ncapable of delivering on his promises. During his term, Gotabaya will be\n faced with the challenge of balancing competing priorities. He needs to\n introduce technocracy and meritocracy into the country, but he needs to\n balance this by carefully making deep changes to the existing system. \nHe will need to balance nationalist and liberal policies, adopt best \npractices that will connect Sri Lanka to the world and make the small \nisland gravitationally a large nation. For this, Gotabaya will need to \nbalance his \u2018neutral\u2019 policy stance with regional and global \ngeopolitical dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr Asanga Abeyagoonasekera is the\n Director-General of the Institute of National Security Studies, Sri \nLanka under Ministry of Defence. He is the author of Sri Lanka at \nCrossroads (2019), published by World Scientific Singapore. He studied \n\u2018Adaptive Leadership\u2019 under Professor Marty Linsky from Harvard Kennedy \nSchool. He can be contacted at asangaaa@gmail.com. The author bears full\n responsibility for the facts cited and opinions expressed in this \npaper.<\/h5>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera Courtesy\u00a0ISAS,National University of Singapore Summary The recent Sri Lankan election witnessed the Rajapaksa brothers \u2013 Gotabaya and Mahinda \u2013 coming to power. Gotabaya, former secretary of defence and a technocrat with little political experience, was elected president while Mahinda, former two-time president who ended the protracted civil war during his term 10 years […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-95972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forum","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95972"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95972\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}