{"id":98025,"date":"2020-01-20T16:20:31","date_gmt":"2020-01-20T23:20:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=98025"},"modified":"2020-01-20T16:20:31","modified_gmt":"2020-01-20T23:20:31","slug":"strategic-stability-in-the-new-decade-ports-of-asia-in-a-period-of-escalation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2020\/01\/20\/strategic-stability-in-the-new-decade-ports-of-asia-in-a-period-of-escalation\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategic stability in the new decade: Ports of Asia in a period of escalation"},"content":{"rendered":"

ASANGA ABEYAGOONASEKERA<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n

The previous Government gave it\n[Hambanthota Port] on a 99-year lease, and even though China is a good friend\nof ours and we need their assistance for development, I am not afraid to say\nthat was a mistake.\u201d Gotabaya Rajapaksa<\/em>[i]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2020 dawns with a US airstrike. The significance of this strike, killing\nthe head of Iran’s elite Quds Force Soleimani and Mohandes the Deputy Commander\nof Popular Mobilisation Forces presents a turning point in the geopolitics of\nMiddle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soleimani himself had once said to President Trump “You will start\nthis war but we will be the ones to impose its end\u201d. US-Iran tensions will\nescalate and Tehran\u2019s will retaliate with its asymmetric capability. According\nto RAND scholar Ariane Tabatabai it will be more strategic, more careful,\nplanned approach,\u201d[ii] by Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a trading partner and largest buyer of Iranian oil, China\u2019s reaction\nmust be monitored. China is also Iran\u2019s ally as a part of the Belt and Road\nInitiative (BRI) which gives a clear interest to secure Chinese-Iranian\ninterest in the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Gate of Supreme Harmony in the Forbidden\nCity in Beijing is guarded by a pair of bronze lions of the Ming era, the\nfemale playing with a cub and the male who holds the world in his paw\nsymbolizes power. Does China wish to hold the world in his paw? China is seen\nas a rising revisionist power [iii]<\/a>.The ancient silk\nroad brought many symbolic and cultural values including the statues of lions\nto China from Central Asia and from the Buddhist traditions closer to Ming\nDynasty. While I learned this during my recent visit to Forbidden City during\nthe newyear. The modern-day Silk Road, the BRI has placed the Chinese economic\ninroads to many nations while certain Scholars believe China\u2019s footprint to\nmany developing nations is for global dominance, just as the symbolic gesture\nof the male lion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China’s Vice-President Wang Qishan <\/strong>highlighted\nthe importance of multilateralism at the Davos forum in 2019. The year before\nPresident Trump declared at the same forum that We support free trade, but it\nneeds to be FAIR and RECIPROCAL,the United States will no longer turn a blind\neye to unfair economic practices, including massive intellectual property\ntheft\u201d. The US trade war with China has escalated and since, ripple effects\nhave spilt towards many nations, especially those with Chinese large-scale\ninfrastructure projects. This includes USA\u2019s ally Israel and the Indian Ocean\nisland of Sri Lanka, seen as a strong partner of China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chinese are altering a static nanometer to understanding geopolitics-\nwhich is geography. It is altering geography unlike any other nation from CPEC\nin Pakistan to Sri Lanka. In a recent example from Sri Lanka, Chinese projects\neffectively altered Sri Lanka\u2019s western coastal geography by adding 269\nhectares reclaimed from the sea for the Colombo Port City. Newly elected Prime\nMinister Mahinda Rajapaksa who elevated Sino-Lanka relationship to a strategic\nheight during his tenure is back in power and visited the project site he\nhimself inaugurated with the Chinese President Xi in 2014. Rajapaksa along with\nChinese Ambassador to Sri Lanka Cheng Xueyuan officially declared the newly\nreclaimed land by the Chinese as part of the Colombo district last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Hambanthota port- another Chinese project in Sri Lanka was leased out\nfor 99 years by the previous government. It was a discussion point when the\nnewly elected President Gotabaya Rajapaksa commented that he would revisit the\nagreement to ensure national security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is the first time in the island\u2019s recent\nhistory that a Sri Lankan leader of National Security prioritized national\nsecurity in negotiations to foreign projects- this is required and is\ncommendable. What the previous Government rushed as a bailout due to difficulty\nin repayment of the Chinese loan came to the forefront with President’s\ncomment, this was further explained by Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa saying\nit was the media hyping of Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s remarks on\nHambantota Port deal as “quoting out of context.The President didn’t mean\nthere is any problem with sovereignty. What the President meant was that our\ngovernment, unlike the previous one, has a principle of not privatizing\nassets,” further Prime Minister fully dismissed that China\u2019s BRI as a\n\u2018Debt trap\u2019 refuted by Western media, “We are very confident that Sri\nLanka can very clearly repay the loans for the Hambantota Port and other\ndevelopment projects. Today, the economy has collapsed but when we rebuild it,\npaying back loans won’t be a question,” Rajapaksa said [iv]<\/a>. What President\nGotabaya said on \u2018national security\u2019 will be an interesting factor when\ncarefully examining another silent port project unfolding in different\ngeography which has become a security concern, Haifa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the eastern border of Israel was\nblocked the strategic port of Haifa along its western shores was a single\ngateway to the rest of the world. Conquered by the Crusaders in the year 1100\nHaifa became the main port for the ancient city of Tiberius. As rightly\npredicted by Theodore Herzl in 1902 in Altneuland, Haifa was to become a\nstrategic port in the future for the nation of Israel. We see this prediction\nunfolding particularly in this century. Haifa in naturally endowed with 700,000\nSQM of natural bay along the Mediterranean coast. It is a blessing with its\nnatural deep-water geography. A new container terminal \u2018Bay Terminal\u2019 was built\nto handle 800,000 TEU container movements annually by 2021. The terminal will\nbe operated by the Chinese, Shanghai International Port Group<\/a> (SIPG) who has won the international tender to operate for 25\nyears. This adds Haifa to the Chinese Belt and Road initiative. While the US\nSixth Fleet is docked at the same port, the Chinese will be operating a port\nwhich has raised a significant security concern for the US and Israel security\nexperts. Shin Bet- Israel\u2019s top intelligence agencies chief Nadav Argaman warns\nChinese influence in Israel is particularly dangerous in terms of strategic\ninfrastructure and investments in larger companies[v]<\/a>,\u201d  His comments further\nrequested Israel\u2019s The Knesset (Israel\u2019s Parliament) to pass legislation to\nmonitor foreign investment in Israel. The same fear was articulated by US\ncongress report on National Defense Authorization Act 2020 section 1289 [vi]<\/a>, stating \u2018The\ncommittee recommends a provision that would express the sense of the Senate\nthat the United States has an interest in the future forward presence of the\nUnited States naval vessels at the Port of Haifa in Israel but has serious\nsecurity concerns with respect to current the leasing arrangements of the Port\nof Haifa. Therefore, the provision would express the view that the United\nStates should urge the Government of Israel to consider the security\nimplications of foreign investment in Israel.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, despite the US fear, Israel has increased its trade with China to\n73% in 2018 to US$2.8bn. This shows bilateral economic interest regardless of\nUS sensitivity to Chinese acquisitions and infrastructure diplomacy in Israel.\nIt appears Israel is moving ahead strengthening the Chinese relations. In the\nsame manner, Sri Lanka has increased its trade with China despite the external\nsecurity concerns and fear especially from its neighbour India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China has become the largest donor and\ntrading partner to Sri Lanka. Economic attractiveness and availability of\nChinese loans leaves other nations with limited space to win large scale\ninfrastructure projects. Viraj Solanki from IISS rightly observes that \u2018New\nDelhi cannot match the level of spending offered by Beijing for infrastructure\nprojects in Sri Lanka \u2013 these include US$1.4 billion in backing for the ambitious Colombo Port City project<\/a> \u2013 but it clearly views security cooperation($50m\noffered during President Gotabaya\u2019s inaugural visit), and in particular\ncounter-terrorism cooperation, as an area in which it does have scope to\nstrengthen relations with the new Rajapaksa government.[vii]<\/a>\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Highlighting the importance of Chinese\ninvestments Prime Minister\u2019s Economic Advisor Ajith Nivard Cabraal, former\nGovernor of Central Bank during Mahinda Rajapaksa\u2019s Presidency said that\n\u2018Hambantota Port, which reported 60% growth in shipment volumes in 2019, is one\nof the most important and strategic assets for the country and that the\nGovernment is keen for the port to play a leading role in the economy in 2020.\u2019[viii]<\/a> While there\nis a higher expectation of return from the Chinese projects, Sri Lankan\nexperience is often highlighted as an example of the dark side depicted by many\nwestern analyst and media as a \u2018debt trap\u2019 diplomacy or \u2018predatory loans\u2019 to\nlock in strategic assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jean Francois Dufour Economist and Director\nof DCA China Analysis comments that the sums invested by China are not\ndonations but loans with consequences. The opponents of China, like India\npainted the entire operation as deliberate plan to acquire strategic positions\nin the region\u201d[ix]<\/a> warning the\nsame could happen to Italy\u2019s Trieste port as Italy is already a partner of BRI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this critical view is not accepted by many receiving nations\nsuch as Sri Lanka. BRI is seen as an ambitious foreign policy strategy to bring\nthe developing world under the Chinese orbit. One of the fears in the\ndeveloping world is that BRI would likely institutionalize a Chinese\nauthoritarian model undermining the existing democratic and economic model in\nmany nations. These nations could disregard these fears if the respective\nGovernment\u2019s adopt a transparent model. In the case of Sri Lanka, the 99-year\nlease agreement was not discussed at parliament and it was rushed and signed\nwithout any strategic inputs by the previous Government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In light of the comment of the newly elected President Gotabaya\nRajapaksa, we can anticipate the present Government will follow a novel process\nto reign in a strategic dimension in assessing the long-term strategic\nimplications to national security before leasing out strategic assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera is the Director\nGeneral of the National Security Think Tank of Sri Lanka (INSSSL) under the Sri\nLankan Ministry of Defense. He is the author of \u2018Sri Lanka at Crossroads\u2019\n(2019),The views expressed here are his own. This article was initially\npublished by ORF \u2018Raisina Debates\u2019 https:\/\/www.orfonline.org\/expert-speak\/strategic-stability-in-the-new-decade-ports-of-asia-in-a-period-of-escalation-60183\/<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

End Notes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

[i] http:\/\/www.ft.lk\/front-page\/President-Rajapaksa-says-leasing-H-tota-Port-was-a-mistake-calls-for-renegotiation-with-China\/44-690388<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[ii] https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2020\/01\/what-iranian-way-war-looks-like\/604438\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[iii] US IPSR 2019 Indo-Pacific Strategy Report refers China as a\nRevisionist Power<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[iv] https:\/\/menafn.com\/1099389015\/On-Hambantota-port-Prez-Gotabaya-Rajapaksa-was-quoted-out-of-context-says-PM-Mahinda-Rajapaksa<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[v] https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/shin-bet-chief-said-to-warn-chinese-investment-in-israel-poses-security-threat\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[vi] https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/congressional-report\/116th-congress\/senate-report\/48\/1?overview=closed<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[vii] https:\/\/www.iiss.org\/blogs\/analysis\/2019\/12\/sri-lanka-and-india-address-shared-ct-challenge<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[viii] http:\/\/www.xinhuanet.com\/english\/asiapacific\/2020-01\/02\/c_138674497.htm<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[ix] https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/20190324-sri-lanka-new-chinese-silk-road-disappointment-economy-debt-italy-france-investment<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ASANGA ABEYAGOONASEKERA The previous Government gave it [Hambanthota Port] on a 99-year lease, and even though China is a good friend of ours and we need their assistance for development, I am not afraid to say that was a mistake.\u201d Gotabaya Rajapaksa[i] 2020 dawns with a US airstrike. The significance of this strike, killing the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[164],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-98025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asanga-abeyagoonasekera"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98025"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98025\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}