{"id":99990,"date":"2020-03-15T16:49:37","date_gmt":"2020-03-15T23:49:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/?p=99990"},"modified":"2020-03-15T16:49:37","modified_gmt":"2020-03-15T23:49:37","slug":"collective-destinies-in-pestilence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lankaweb.com\/news\/items\/2020\/03\/15\/collective-destinies-in-pestilence\/","title":{"rendered":"Collective Destinies in Pestilence"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Asanga Abeyagoonasekera<\/em><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n

No longer were there individual destinies?; only a collective destiny. Made for plague and emotions shared by all.\u201d Albert Camus<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 430\nBC, an entire chapter of the Peloponnesian war documented by the Greek\nhistorian, Thucydides was about a deadly epidemic. According to him, while\nAthenians prepared for war with Sparta, its course changed dramatically due to\na plague. First, Athenians believed it was the work of Spartans who have\npoisoned their waters, but eventually understood it was a plague. Over the\ncourse of history, epidemics have wiped out villages, populations and\ndevastated and transformed empires. They wield much more power than any other\nsecurity threat that could enter our society and today we all directly confront\nthis threat. While many nations and political leaders marched towards embracing\nultra-nationalist sentiments, believing their national interest is important\nthan the other nations, will eventually understand with the growth of the outbreak\nthe importance of transnational cooperation and building trust among nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wuhan\nis a city of 11 million people. It is described as a city geographically at the\nvery heart of China. It is roughly equidistant from the cities of Beijing and\nGuangzhou (Canton) on a north-south axis and also is equidistant from Shanghai\nand Chongqing on an east-west line. Currently, its residents are not allowed to\nmove out of the city. San Fiorano is also barricaded and closed off from the\noutside world with nine neighbouring towns close to Milan that were the\nepicentre of the coronavirus outbreak. Italian Prime Minister[i]<\/a> says This is Italy\u2019s darkest hour\u201d as lockdown in\nthe northern regions and riots break out in prisons and country is facing the\nbiggest challenge since the second world war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic has spread in 114 countries, as of 11th March there are 118,000 confirmed cases with 4291 deaths from around the world. The outbreak is declared a pandemic by the world health organization. The daily developments of the outbreak are similar to the incidents illustrated in Albert Camus\u2019s 1947 novel \u2018The Plague[ii]<\/a>\u2019. Seen as a parable about the German occupation of France the plot holds a far much deeper significance to everyday life through chronicling an outbreak in the North African city of Oran. While people suffer from death and isolation, Camus wonders what it means to resist a challenging environment and outlines human courage through a profound optimism about human nature to rise from difficult moments through small kindnesses and solidarity. Just like the authorities blocking people of Oran, police have barricaded the entrance to the Italian town and anyone who attempting escape the blockade faces up to three months in prison or a fine of up to 206 euros ($223). It is as if I am going through the pages of Camu\u2019s chronicle when witnessing the human suffering documented from around the world. Given the current trajectory of the spread, it is poised to reach other cities which could follow the similar oppressive containment methods. It\u2019s worth preparing for the worse.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Distrust\nand Cooperation <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\nis the primus inter pares<\/em> among the developing countries. As\nan emerging power with significant economic strength, it is facing a security\ndilemma with the exiting global power, the United States of America. Apart from\nthe heightened trade war between the two nations and security concerns of\nChinese products, another new dimension of conflict inhibiting the dire need\nfor cooperation during epidemics is added to the agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While some reports were published misleading that the virus was a biological weapon either from laboratories in Wuhan or US inflicting Wuhan. Apart from nuclear weapons, China and the US engage in defensive biological warfare research for strategic deterrent or weapons of last resort. Distrust between the two nations at a time like this could aggravate this misleading information. What is required is to strengthen military to military bio-defence cooperation[iii]<\/a>\u00a0and trust and transparency between the two to minimize future hazards.\u00a0Nations will require to work side by side to confront challenges from epidemics. Despite US-China trade wars, it\u2019s also an opportune time to strengthen collaboration for global health and epidemic preparedness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Globalization\nin action<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Was this a \u2018black swan[iv]<\/a>\u2019 moment? A random and unpredictable event. Michele Wucker got it right by calling it a \u2018grey rhino[v]\u2019 moment which is highly probable\u00a0but neglected threats that have an enormous impact. No matter how powerful the nation, epidemics have no borders. The last time China had a similar outbreak was in in 2003 when the SARS epidemic which took many lives and weakened the economy even at its 10% growth rate. This time the Chinese economy is at 6% growth and the nation will face difficulty to introduce a stimulus with the current deficit. According to Reuters[vi]\u00a0China\u2019s economic growth is expected to slow to 4.5 per cent<\/em> in the first quarter of 2020\u2014the slowest pace since the 2008 financial crisis and could cost the global economy $1.1 trillion in lost income[vii]<\/a>. The disease will reshape economies around the world. It has already impacted the oil prices which had the worst fall since the 1991 US invasion of Kuwait[viii]<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The estimates of the degree of infection are on the rise and this would directly impact the Chinese economy and the entire global trade. It’s commendable that the Chinese authorities have been transparent, sharing the DNA of the virus, unlike the previous SARS epidemic. In any government, the administrative capacity and competency could be weighed at a time of crisis, particularly at a time like this, so far Chinese authorities have proven their ability to follow the correct procedures and cooperate with the global community to overcome the challenges. At the beginning, there was lapses and delay of acknowledgement by the authorities. As clearly explained by Jennifer Bouey Senior Policy Researcher at RAND Corporation the first common feature response of SARS and 2019-nCoV is the delay in acknowledging the initial case cluster to be a public health threat. If we recognize that stability is what the Chinese political system values most, and an acute public health threat, such as an epidemic, is precisely the black swan\u201d that can threaten such stability, then it is not too difficult to understand the Chinese government\u2019s reluctance toward acknowledging an epidemic. China\u2019s law prohibits anyone from talking about a public health threat before an official government announcement\u201d[ix].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike in 2003, China is more globalized with around two hundred thousand people a day in and out of the mainland resulting in a higher degree of risk for the outbreak. It is also a time of globalization in action, spreading the virus from one remote corner to another faraway city in a few hours. Unlike in the 1970s where 310 million passengers travel from the air, presently, the number of air travels is in billions[x]<\/a>\u00a0for a year. Marc Lipsitch[xi]<\/a>\u00a0Harvard University epidemiologist coronavirus says the virus “will ultimately not be containable” and, within a year, will infect somewhere between 40 and 70 per cent of humanity, But don’t be too alarmed. Many of those people won’t have severe illnesses or even show symptoms at all\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sri\nLankan economy, navigating the global shocks <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Sri Lanka, there was one Chinese traveller\nfound positive, treated and sent back to China. Seen as a significant\nachievement by the authorities, the Health Minister took the front page of the\nnews, not realizing its not the end but the beginning of many more to be\ndiagnosed in the coming days. Along with the news cycle, the public focus will\nshift in a few days to upcoming Parliamentary election which will the cost\ntaxpayers some several billion amidst the global outbreak and global economic\nslowdown which has already hit the tourism industry. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sri\nLankan economy which is at the lowest growth rate in South Asia will have\nfurther effects from the coronavirus. The tourism industry went through a hard\nrecovery after the 2019 Easter Sunday terror attacks and while it was\nrecovering was hit by Coronavirus. Chinese tourist visiting the Island will\ndrop and Chinese infrastructure projects will also face some impact from the\nconstruction workers. Depending on the global impact on supply chains and how\nsoon things will be back to normal, the Sri Lankan economy would have to\nnavigate the shocks in the global arena. A caution on recent irrational\ngovernment policies in the international arena UNHRC and turning down the US\nMCC loan, decisions are taken for the sake of elections will have ripple\neffects in post-elections, especially with the prevailing global economic\nslowdown. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coronavirus\nElection and the National Security Policy for Sri Lanka<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the government in power is seeking 2\/3rd\nmajority in Parliament in the upcoming Parliamentary elections in April, the\npolitical environment will be different from the past elections. You could call\nit a Coronavirus election. Should there be elections with the global pandemic?\nRegardless of the global health hazard, does the Government encourage public\ngatherings? Why can\u2019t the Government postpone elections? Are some useful\nquestions to carefully think twice? Government efficiency and President\u2019s\nunilateral decision making on managing the epidemic will be a factor. President\nGotabaya Rajapaksa who came to power projecting a national security threat from\nthe Easter Sunday bombings will face another form of global security threat.\nResponding to disease outbreak is a multifaceted effort by the whole of\nGovernment. It involves provincial and local level to Mayors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Successfully\nmanaging the spread of the virus relies on the efficiency of the overall system\nof government, not one individual. Has Sri Lanka prioritized who receives virus\ntest? How fast the results could be delivered? Who is responsible to sanitize\npublic transit places? How effective and efficient are the quarantine\nfacilities managed? are some vital questions that require answers. The\nGovernment\u2019s efficiency of managing the crisis will be a daunting challenge which\nwill lead to building trust with the general public and the system in place\nwhich will eventually secure the vote in the coming election. A slight lapse or\nmismanagement would have a drastic public reaction and outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We must\nunderstand this new reality to reduce the risk of future epidemics. Having a\nsecurity policy is an essential ingredient that can add value to the process of\npreparedness during a national security crisis. National Security Policy (NSP)\nwill capture the holistic security threats (health, climate, economic etc) to\nthe nation in the next several years. An NSP was compiled at the National\nSecurity Think Tank(INSSSL) during last three years with several military\nexperts from tri-forces along with the researchers and handed over to the Secretary\nMinistry of Defence General Shantha Kottegoda in 2019 October. According to the\nSri Lankan National Security Policy which highlights that \u2018a nation\nshould develop the means and capacities to prevent and control epidemics that\nmight cripple the country\u2019.<\/em> The document is worth circulating to the\npublic and line Ministries for further inputs and development. Unfortunately,\nthese documents go classified and not shared with the public just like the\nNational Defence Policy (NDP) which was declassified and approved from the\ncabinet on November 11th 2019[xii]<\/a>. Not many\nSri Lankans know that the nation has a National Defence Policy. These policies\nbelong to the people and not to a particular regime or individual, therefore it\nshould be carried forward with improvements and amendments not to be hidden\ninside cupboards and shared with a restricted audience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a time with of a global crisis such as this with anxiety and uncertainty with multiple socio-political and economic shocks which could engulf distrust among nations what is required is cooperation, solidarity and acts of human kindness to each other. While epidemics teach us, a collective destiny is what we possess, we still tend to be fragmented and glued to our destiny securing our national interest, ignoring others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Asanga Abeyagoonasekera is the author of \u2018Sri Lanka at Crossroads\u2019 published by World Scientific Singapore(2019). He is a visiting lecturer for International Security at Colombo University and the former Director-General of the National Security Think Tank(INSSSL) under Ministry of Defence and former Executive Director of Kadirgamar Institute(LKIIRSS). Young Global Leader World Economic Forum.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

End\nNotes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  [i]<\/a> https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/7e5ee68e-6200-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[ii]<\/a> La\nPeste<\/em> is a novel by Albert Camus<\/a>,\npublished in 1947<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[iii]<\/a> https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/united-states\/2020-03-05\/us-chinese-distrust-inviting-dangerous-coronavirus-conspiracy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[iv]<\/a> \n Black Swan moment describes an event that comes as a surprise. The theory\nwas developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/a>, <\/p>\n\n\n\n

[v] Grey Rhino\nconcept was\ncoined by Michele Wucker, a fellow YGL and policy analyst who came up with the\nterm after the 2012 Greek financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[vi]<\/a> https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/agenda\/2020\/02\/how-coronavirus-disrupts-global-value-chains\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[vii]<\/a> https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/feb\/19\/coronavirus-could-cost-global-economy-1tn-in-lost-output<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[viii]<\/a> https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2020\/03\/09\/business\/oil-price-crash-explainer\/index.html?utm_campaign=wp_todays_worldview&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_todayworld<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[ix]\nJennifer Bouey, Testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs\nSubcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation on February 5, 2020.\nhttps:\/\/www.rand.org\/content\/dam\/rand\/pubs\/testimonies\/CT500\/CT523\/RAND_CT523.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[x]<\/a> 2018 was 4.2 billion air travel for the year\nhttps:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/IS.AIR.PSGR<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xi]<\/a> https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/coronavirus-outbreak-could-hit-3-billion-adults-harvard-expert-2020-3<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[xii]<\/a> Approved\nby Government of Sri Lanka (Cabinet Paper No 19\/3132\/103\/173) on 11th Nov 2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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