A Negotiated Settlement with
the LTTE will Lead to Economic Cataclysm
Dilrook Kannangara
Many have now forgotten the East Asian financial crisis though its
scars have left a permanent mark on many lives. Donors jumped for joy
and were willing to lend at remarkably low interest rates and Indonesia
was the first to grab this ‘lifeline’. Malaysia was sceptical
and didn’t accept any aid with strings attached followed by predictions
of doom by the donors. However, Malaysia got out of the crisis in no
time in wide contrast to Indonesia, which went from crisis to crises.
The crux of the matter is that the donors are engaged in business, they
need to make financial profit or other forms of return for their financiers.
Same with our co-chairs who have an agenda, a financial project forecast
for Sri Lanka. Thereby they wish to keep their stranglehold on our matters.
Their biggest fear is economic development in which case they will run
out of business with one of their potential high value customers.
In this context, they promote a negotiated settlement with the terrorists.
While refusing to talk to terrorists themselves, they urge us to talk
to terrorists and make sacrifices to gratify the terrorists. This further
nourishes their agenda for the island nation. It is about economic ruination
of this country that they are after so that they as finance providers
or lifesavers can dictate terms for us and possibly siphon out whatever
of economic value here including natural resources, human talent and
exploit its strategic location.
From our point of view, what does a negotiated settlement hold for us?
What was the damage caused to national development by the LTTE? In fact,
they are solely responsible for frustrating the two biggest projects
we ever had after 1948; namely the resettlement project of 1940-1960s
and the Mahaweli multi purpose project. Their economic contribution
to the GDP would have been enormous and most importantly sustainable.
It also could have uplifted the living standards of those involved.
This is in stark contrast to our biggest industries today; garments,
housemaids and tea. Although these industries are much more important
for our foreign currency reserves, their social contribution has been
nothing but disastrous. About 95% of employees of these industries and
their families live below the average income and their living conditions
are appalling. Raising their living conditions means these industries
go bankrupt. The other major stumbling block is their severe vulnerability
to global demand changes, competition and severe price suppression making
these unsustainable in the long run. Slavery in Chinese and Indonesian
garment factories interpret to lower cost of production and in the long-term
financial benefits overrule all other good that we boast. However, we
need these industries to continue as all our other industries have collapsed.
Coming back to our two major economic projects, the resettlement project
was the first to suffer genocide by the LTTE. A very large number of
arable land, farms (including Kent and Dollar farms), irrigation projects,
economic infrastructure, livelihoods and personal savings and property
were lost. Add to this their potential economic contribution that was
lost, we are talking of trillions of rupees. Same with the Mahaweli
project. Victoria power station with a rated capacity of 310MWs never
produced even half of that mainly due to security concerns; Maduru oya
power plants were shut down shortly after inauguration; Mahalweli settlements
bore the brunt of terrorist activity and many abandoned all the desired
and intended projects and some left the area; terror threats forced
the diversion and curtailment of the Mahaweli project; it left a huge
debt but no corresponding cash inflows to pay such debts. These combined
together spelt disaster for the nation that put all its ‘eggs in
one basket’. We had to go back to slavery-like industries just
to survive.
Obviously, there were contributing factors that worsened the situation;
however, the main reason for project failure in economic terms was terrorism.
Then what about the Valachchenei paper factory; KKS cement factory;
Paranthan chemical factory; Pulmodai Ilmenite deposits; Eppawela phosphate
deposits; the island’s richest fishing banks off Point Padro; huge
Calcium Carbonate deposits in the Jaffna peninsular; arable land in
Vanni, etc., etc.? The Sri Lankan economy was deprived of trillions
of dollars by the LTTE.
The list of evil is increasing every year; in 2002 the LTTE made their
threat to genocide upstream water users. This is stated in the last
condition of their ISGA proposals, which states that since most waterways
to ‘their territory’ flows through GoSL controlled areas,
water users should use this resource sparingly. It took only four years
to put his threat into action in Mavil aru, Wedikanda and just a few
months in the case of Manirasakulam. It is significant to note that
cutting down the water supply to 35,000 families in Mavil aru by the
LTTE was not a direct violation of (the donors’ much hailed) CFA.
So, this is what they want.
However, we are faced with even worse challenges ahead. Two even larger
projects are in the pipeline; namely the oil extraction project and
the Hambantota port project. Theses are already threatened by the LTTE.
Oil reserves off Manar belong to Tamil Elam as they are within the TE
continental waters, they claim. Ships that may call at the proposed
Hambantota port will sail off the southern tip of Tamil Elam and therefore
should pay a fee to the state of Tamil Elam. Clearly, the LTTE has shown
that they are damn serious about anyone coming close to their continental
waters. Indian, Chinese and Jordanian ships/trawlers (not to mention
Sri Lankan navy crafts, fishing boats and ships) were plundered by the
terrorists during the ceasefire!! In short, no ship will call at the
Hambantota port if the LTTE is present in the island.
By the way, the Mannar oil reserves would be sold by the LTTE for trillions
of dollars and using the proceeds the terrorists will buy very sophisticated
weapons to capture the whole island from the so called ‘Aryan Sinhala
invaders’.
These are the repercussions of a negotiated settlement with the LTTE.
Compare the potential financial losses of a negotiated settlement against
the poultry generosity of the donors. I’m very confident that nobody
can ever challenge the above facts and Sri Lanka is in for more misery
if we go for a negotiated settlement.
If our policymakers are serious about long-term economic upsurge, there
is only one solution; exterminate the LTTE terrorists. They should be
put out of business if we are to be serious about our business. When
that happens, Sri Lanka will be a proud and generous donor herself,
not a humble recipient of stingy foreign aid. Therefore, the need of
the hour is to speed up the war not only to flush out the terrorists,
but also to annihilate them completely.
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