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The Economic Case for War
Dilrook Kannangara
It is a fact that the Sri Lankan economy is in doldrums. It is also
a fact that bankrupt politicians are using it as a tool to grab power
and the LTTE terrorists are also using it to pressure the government
to give in to Tamil Elam. It is unfortunate that the UNP hasn’t
learnt the lesson after losing the 2004 election in grand style, mainly
due to economic mismanagement.
In no uncertain terms and in a number of instances the LTTE has stated
that it will not settle for anything less than Tamil Elam. Almost all
“peace” activists want the government to succumb to LTTE demands
so that - they argue - the war would end and economic prosperity would
follow. If they have retained the ability to think, I urge them to think
aloud. Will it bring peace if we surrender to the LTTE? (As everyone
knows the LTTE would never stop terrorism unless and until we surrender
to it. There is no compromise on that.) The following will happen in
sequential order.
Boarder disputes
Looking at the Tamil Elam map sitting behind its leader, one can see
the TE includes lands up to Madampe, Kataragama, Maha Oya, Habarana,
Weli Oya, etc. Can we surrender these to the LTTE? If not the LTTE would
not stop killing.
Ethnic cleansing
One primary requirement for Tamil Elam is to cleanse the area of Muslims
and Sinhalese. In the 1990s Muslims were chased away from the Jaffna
district and my goodness how hard they tried to do so in the East? Mosques,
full of worshippers were drenched in blood. Still the inhabitants, quite
rightly refused to leave. But if we embrace peace through surrender,
the LTTE will commit a genocide of all Sinhala, Muslim, Veddha, Gypsies
and other inhabitants of the area under TE.
Sinhala and Muslims civilians chased from TE will incite racial riots
in other parts of the island.
We would have a bizarre situation if this happens. Tamils living elsewhere
will suffer immensely and will be forced to take cover in TE. Essentially
we will be back to square one. If anyone thinks that these evictees
should commit suicide, he is out of his mind.
Trincomalee harbour, oil/phosphate/titanium/calcium carbonate/any many
more deposits will fall into the hands of the LTTE
It would be pointless to talk about the Sri Lankan economy thereafter.
Colossal amount of money received by the LTTE will go into advance their
terrorist capabilities. It will akin to the folklore of two farmers
dividing the cow; while one appreciates the peaceful beauty of its face,
the other gets all economic benefits!
Hambantota and Colombo harbours will become no go
zones
No foreign vessel shall call into these harbours as the GoSL will refuse
to compensate them for bribes offered to the LTTE to use the sea surrounding
the island. Repeated begging to the LTTE and the IC would achieve nothing
as they rather have “peace” than conflicts.
Foreign investors will shun Sri Lanka
How will risk their capital in a country surrendered to a terrorist
group? In fact this happened in Sri Lanka during 2002-2004 period. The
government’s attempts for a private placement of SLT shares to
many foreign companies failed; thereafter shares were offered to the
public. Bus companies’ privatisation went bust as the foreign investor
refused to bring in any foreign currency for the purchase.
Footware companies closed down their operations and the biggest FDI
employer, Kabul Lanka, ceased operations for months. During this time,
no significant foreign investment participation occurred in Sri Lanka
and inflation was running high as today (in percentage terms) irrespective
of falling oil prices (yes falling after Iraqi oil reached the markets).
LTTE demand of ransom from the government
The UNP government of 2001-2004 provided hard currency grants to the
LTTE which were in turned borrowed by the GoSL. In an extremely stupid
set-up the LTTE stood to benefit from such grants while the GoSL (and
eventually the people of Sri Lanka) assumed to repay it to foreign lenders!
P-TOMS agreement tried to further enhance this trend, but thanks to
sane individuals, it was blocked.
Also education, hospitals and administration of the TE will be provided
by the GoSL, but no tax shall be collected from the citizens of TE for
this.
In essence, if we surrender to the LTTE for peace, Sri Lankans will
be enslaved as they will sweat to nourish the TE and the terrorists.
The moment the government says no to ransom demands, war will resume.
Water wars
The last proviso of the LTTE’s Interim Self Governing Authority
(ISGA) proposals makes it imperative for us to use water sparingly in
rivers that flows to TE. This means essentially ALL the irrigation projects
should be abandoned. Most of the hydro power generation will also stop
as the LTTE do not want the GoSL authorities to decide on releasing
water. Unless all such projects stop and allow free flow of water to
the TE, we will once again have war.
A demand for a total surrender or war
At last the LTTE will fulfil the extreme aspirations of their so called
“Dravidian ancestors” by taking control of the whole island
amidst celebrations in Tamil Nadu. The government will rather surrender
than go to war. This will be the end of a civilisation and the start
of barbarianism in our island.
The above are not mere predictions, but well founded anticipations in
a meek surrender to the LTTE in the name of peace. Before anyone harps
on a ‘negotiated settlement’, stopping the government military
campaign, howls to stop the ‘unwinnable’ war or otherwise
hinder the government military campaign, he/she should think whether
the above repercussions are desired. On right thinking person would
want a surrender to a terrorist group.
Another myth is that the international community will bail us out. What
for? Why should they get involved in matters not affecting their citizens?
They have never done that before.
Therefore, if we are to develop and to sustain civilised existence,
it is imperative that we win the war.
However, the war must be won with least economic sacrifices as practicable.
There is no point in bleeding the economy in a prolonged war. Towards
this end, the war got to be won within a reasonable and sustainable
period of time. Obviously, the Sri Lankan economy cannot take this for
2 more years.
Nevertheless, if the war is fought to win within a reasonable period
of time, it is justifiable to sell-off our natural resources, etc. in
order to finance it. This is justifiable on the ground that, if the
war is not won, these resources would anyway be wasted, even may be
used against us by the terrorists.
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