Karuna Factor and the Anuradhapura
Attack
Dilrook Kannangara
Is there any connection between dispatching Vinayagamoothi Muralitharan
(aka Colonel Karuna) and the Anuradhapura attack? It is worthwhile to
look into this from both direct and indirect perspectives; it is equally
important as the two teams that are investigating the attack. The post
mortem may not reveal anything that we do not know, but the absence
of the K-factor may lead to further attacks.
Few significant things happened in the last one month period to favour
the LTTE, especially its guerrilla operations. One was the departure
of Colonel Karuna; the absence of Karuna is sufficiently felt by the
nation as the terrorists have infiltrated into many places they feared
when the king of guerrilla operations was hunting them down. Another
development was the visit of Louise Arbour. Although a UN office didn’t
come up, the government backed down on the efforts in place to execute
LTTE infiltrators. Within just a few days the LTTE recorded multiple
victories in places widely apart geographically. When the cat's away,
the mice will play!
All these were guerrilla attacks. All these attacks were successful;
the A’pura attack was the most successful; the Yala attackers were
never captured or killed; according to some reports terrorists have
caused a bomb attack in Tissamaharama targeting navy personnel. If it
is true, this is the third successive LTTE attack in the Hambantota
district within two weeks. If it is not true it means that this is the
third terror attempt in the Hambantota district within two weeks.
Coincidental?
When Karuna was roaming the country with the government backing, coincidentally,
there were no such attacks. Of course the tigers tried many a time to
attack and these were foiled by the timely action of the armed forces,
the police, the paramilitaries and the public. One of the biggest attacks
that was averted relates to the freezer truck that was captured in Trinco
with ample help from TMVP sources. Therefore it is important to ponder
whether there is a link, remote may be, between a weak Karuna group
and a strong Parabakaran group.
Armies the world over had struggled to come to terms with infiltrators
including the US security forces equipped with all high tech gadgetry.
It is therefore a futile effort to leave the infiltrators to the armed
forces alone; paramilitary support must be sought. There cannot be no
group superior that the TMVP developed by the former head of the military
wing of the LTTE. An interesting point was made by Rohan Gunaratna recently
that language barriers hinder proper intelligence gathering as most
LTTE infiltrators are Tamils and the armed forces lack Tamil proficiency.
Though not a new invention, his suggestions are not workable; he suggests
building up Tamil proficiency within the armed forces. This can take
at least a few years further aggravated by the fact that there are lack
of Tamils within the armed forces. For that reason it is of paramount
importance that the help of the TMVP and EPDP are actively sought to
do the spy work that require a good working knowledge of Tamil and a
proven record of knowing the LTTE. These paramilitary groups have both
these vital qualities and the authorities should not waste any time
looking for impractical workarounds. Any war results in human rights
violations as a matter of fact. It should be remembered that in all
the modern wars mankind has fought the largest casualties were civilians.
Although it is important to keep it a low as possible, cutting corners
in the paramilitary strategy is disastrous. Louise Arbour nor the international
community has at the very least condemned the attack! If we change our
defence plans to suit them, this is what awaits us. It cannot be overemphasized
that national security and the national economy each taken separately
are much more important than human rights. Had human rights clowns achieved
a change of course of the hitherto aggressive government strategy, they
have earned their pay.
Sinhala-Only can save us!
Contrary to what the Tamil Elamists suggest Sinhala-Only can come to
the assistance of the armed forces! This was not the first time the
LTTE camouflaged as armed forces personnel in an attack. The 1995 oil
refinery attack and the 2001 airport attack the LTTE did the same tactic.
It is amazing how the security forces personnel had fallen for the same
old trick thrice that resulted in massive terror attacks. Had there
been enough casual talk between the invaders and the officers on duty,
these would never have happened. Most of the terrorists couldn’t
speak any good Sinhala and an exchange of a few words with each group
member of the infiltrators would have prevented many calamities. Even
on the way to the attack, check points, passing by patrols, etc. should
have detected the terrorists in army uniforms.
Tigers have already taken the upper-hand
The embarrassment of downplaying the attack by the staterun media and
the military personnel must be felt by the government. There is no excuse
for lying that has the essential repercussion of losing credibility.
The damage toll was rising daily and no right thinking person believes
the government that eight (8) aircrafts is the correct number and many
put it at 18 thanks to the losing credibility of the government! On
top of that another bitter reality is that the LTTE has already taken
the upper hand in the battle. Retaliatory air strikes didn’t come
in time and with the expected ferocity. Tigers have already emphatically
declared that attack is the best form of defence and promised more attacks.
Obviously this is an old threat but its relevance is different today.
Tigers will surely exploit the full potential of this style of attacks
in the near future. As it goes justice delayed is justice denied; there
is no apparent justice being done for the crime yet and every passing
day without proper retaliation glorifies the terrorists. The SLAF attacks
on 22 and 24 were very mild comparatively and have not created any significant
casualties for the tigers. A major retaliation in the same annals the
tigers used is a must. Tiger weapons dumps got to be destroyed with
the same ferocity.
Jungle cover should not come as an excuse since terrorists around the
world including the father of modern day rebellion - Che Guevara - use
jungle hideouts. It pays to burn part of the massive Vanni jungles to
hunt down the tigers. After all jungles can be re-grown.
Lost property must be replaced
Ranil, Mangala and their punks are overjoyed by the attack. However,
they have suggested no plan to replenish the destroyed, retaliate the
destroyers and rectify the defects in the system. Instead they made
it another opportunity to project the armed forces as defective, incompetent
and incapable of defeating the LTTE. They share their joy with the Tamil
Elam crowd and the federal freaks. If Tamil aspirations are tied to
Tamils committing suicide, it is nothing but fantastic; that will ensure
that there will be none to enjoy the fruits of these aspirations if
they were won one day. There are more than enough mineral deposits in
tiger controlled areas that can be exploited to pay for any exuberant
defence budget. However, what matters is the complete annihilation of
the terrorists so that assets under their control can be used to pay
the debts.
Going by prudent values, the known mineral deposits in LTTE controlled
areas are worth at least 1000% (approximately USD 8 billion excluding
oil reserves) of the USD 500 million Bond and the interest combined
(approximately USD 750 million). Plus the economic contribution of Vanni
would be USD 350 million a year at today’s GDP per capita. Therefore
the only solution to the financial burden that was caused by the terror
attack is to completely annihilate the LTTE so that the government has
free access to these vital resources. It should be remembered that neither
the Vanni dwellers nor the Vanni resources contributed even a few dollars
to the national economy during the so called ‘peace’ process
from 2002 to 2004. Instead millions of dollars were spent by the Sri
Lankan government headed by Ranil to entertain the LTTE around the world
and a few more were granted to the TRO (Tamil Rehabilitation Organisation)
- these were used by the LTTE to buy weapons as no development work
took place n Vanni!! These funds were frozen in 2006 by the Central
Bank going by the international requirement to freeze terrorist funds.
Retaliation at a new level
The LTTE military spokesman has emphasised that Tissamaharama is the
electorate of the President and that is the reason behind the attack.
This is a new level of retaliation and must be countered violently.
It comes after Parabakaran’s location – Pudukudurippu - was
repeatedly attacked by the SLAF. However, in the recent past the SLAF
has stopped, mysteriously, attacking Pudukudurippu. In fact on the 25
October, the LTTE held a massive gathering of its cadres and people
to celebrate the A’pura attack; there was no SLAF attack! This
is in wide contrast to what the government media claims often that large
LTTE gatherings are attacked. This is a very disturbing development
in the military campaign in Elam War 4 where the security forces always
had the upper hand thanks to their successful retaliation and execution
strategy. Significant concerns emerge from the new developments.
If the government military campaign was actually nearing its climax,
as claimed by the government until 25 October, how can they justify
the inaction? Terror attacks are understandable and were expected. However,
the problem is inaction on the part of the government. The government
forces must take the upper hand in this retaliation based warfare.
On the other hand, ensuring Hambantota security is quite easy as the
ethnic diversion is low and any strange behaviour or development is
effortlessly detected. Why the government hesitant to execute the tigers
roaming Hambantota? Is it the same doomed plan CBK had in 1995 to ‘bring
the LTTE back to the negotiating table’? If so this is the beginning
of the LTTE’s victory over the Rajapakse administration. It should
be remembered that the LTTE has already beaten the SB (1970-77), JRJ
(1977-88), RP (1988-93), RW/DBW (1993-94), CBK (1994-2001), RW (2001-04),
CBK (2004-05) administrations.
LTTE still husbands the UNP
It is unfortunate that the nation and the people do not have a viable
alternative as the UNP is still under the direct control and ownership
of the LTTE. The big fat lie the UNP leadership came up with in September
after Ranil’s government toppling DFNC (daily fertilising, no children)
attempts failed, as usual, has turned even bigger and ugly. The UNP’s
conduct has not changed; it still waits on the LTTE; does all menial
work for the LTTE and engages in everything that is harmful to the armed
forces. When the military scores victories they downplay such victories;
but when the LTTE (UNP’s perennial masters) wins, UNPers jump for
joy. What on earth could the government should have done to stop the
A’pura attack when the SLAF and Army failed? The armed forces personnel
are paid to do their job and they failed for once. It is said that unlike
an office worker, a bad day at work means utter devastation in the case
of a fire fighter, soldier or a miner.
What the UNP should have done was to point out the ways to overcome
the loss and the defeat. Instead it used it as an opportunity to sling
mud at the government while joining the LTTE in celebrations. The UNP
saluted the LTTE in no small measure depicting the terror military spokesman
as a comparable to a world class modern warrior. Therefore it is imperative
that the government check-mate the UNP as well. The USD 500 million
bond is a sufficient deterrent for the UNP to grab power as it has been
disastrous in managing the economy, especially when foreign financing
is involved. The largest amount of foreign aid received during its term
2001-04 ended up in the hands of the LTTE/TRO; it attempts to sell 15%
of SLT to a foreign investor failed miserably and the shares were sold
to the locals with no gain for the buyers and the government; the USD
4 billion promised by the donors in 2002 was not received partly due
to the mismanagement of the economy and aid by the UNP and LTTE; no
privatisation endeavour succeeded with foreign investors; the UNP administration
failed to capitalise on the very low oil prices (less than USD 26 a
barrel) and many more financial blunders. On the other hand if the finances
are to be handled, they will have to stick to the present military plan.
The media clout of the UNP has been used very heavily to promote the
LTTE. In a foolish if not resentful act by a journo (with a name of
a Jamah Islamia terrorist leader) at a newspaper company (owned substantially
by Ranil’s mother) stated among other nonsense that the LTTE would
resume brining in shiploads of weapons again as the spy plane that tracked
LTTE deep sea missions has been destroyed. His piggery should never
have been tolerated in any other country. The spy plane he referred
was the American made Beechcraft 200 Super King Air aeroplane; it has
a maximum range of approximately 3,300 kilometres. Tiger ships positioned
over 1,700 kilometres from Dondra Point have been destroyed. A Beechcraft
200 Super King Air plane travelling 3,400 kilometres from Dondra and
back has to cover another 600 kilometres to and from Anuradhapura making
the total distance to 4,000 kilometres; far beyond the plane’s
capability of 3,300 kilometres!! It should also be appreciated that
the flight path is not a straight-line and back; it involves a curvy
travel path; many circles; taking photographs; reserving a sizable amount
of fuel for an emergency; heavy equipment and provisions. All these
boil down to an even lesser distance in practical terms for this plane.
Another point is that this plane was in the possession of Sri Lanka
for more than a decade; why no LTTE ships were detected in the past
decade in the deep sea? Why did it happen only in 2007 and why all previous
encounters took place very close to shore?
Guarding the periphery and the vicinity of targets
Peripheries of possible LTTE targets must be protected at the same intensity
of guarding the target itself. Military and paramilitary units must
patrol the vicinity executing any trouble makers beforehand. Had this
type of simple things done, many terror attacks would have been avoided.
This is the only way to ward-off guerrilla attacks.
The more the LTTE becomes desperate many would be their terror attacks.
Therefore it is time to expand the paramilitary and civil operations
of the armed forces.
All economic and military locations of importance must be heavily guarded;
there perimeter and the surrounding areas need to be roamed by the paramilitaries
with adequate impunity to do the needful at all times. Action while
a suicide attack is on is nonsense as it cannot do any good.
The security establishment must seek laymen’s opinions on potential
security breaches that can take place for each of the facilities. If
USD 60 million assets are stationed in a military base, it equals to
the average annual earnings of 60,000 Sri Lankans! This should give
a sense of perspective of the relative issues surrounding paramilitary
deployment, extra-judicial justice resolution and the potential loss
on one side and the need to protect these assets at all cost.
The beggar’s wound
Elam War 4 is also becoming another beggar’s wound to excuse continued
under development, oppression of the media, oppression of opponents
and the like. It is the task of patriotic forces to pressurise the government
to win the war ASAP. The three year plan to win the war is too long
and such a prolonged war can only help the LTTE. The longer it takes
to find a settlement the more complicate the situation becomes, the
higher the number of terror attacks/HR violations/military expenditure/economic
destruction/military and civilian casualties become. First let’s
exterminate the LTTE, and then we can redress HR issues. As with the
political solutions experiment, it is vital that we wait out till the
US or UK complete this experiment in their own countries granting political
autonomy to Muslims living there. If it proved successful and workable
we can use the same model here. There is absolutely no need for us to
become the guinea pigs of a nasty political solution experiment
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