CLASSIFIED | POLITICS | TERRORISM | OPINION | VIEWS

Is there a Plan to Prolong the Conflict and Compromise National Interests?

Dilrook Kannangara

Speculation is ripe in some circles of a plan to call off military operations and recommence the tragicomedy of peace talks that cannot achieve anything. Interestingly in a country where every cricket match is relayed live, “peace talks” are not even open to the public or media. As a result people are kept in the dark about what their representatives talk with their national enemies. No wonder “peace talks” always fail. Expecting a different outcome next time is naïve and dangerous.

Why a compromise with the LTTE is not possible

No compromise is possible with the LTTE as any compromise involves the very existence of the Sri Lankan nation. LTTE’s demands are based on Tamil aspirations – Tamil nationality, Tamil homelands, Tamil right of self-determination. Granting any one of them requires a serious amputation of Sri Lanka. A compromise requires serious surgery to this tiny unitary island. As one cannot compromise on life, LTTE demands cannot be entertained.

The second reason is that there is no need to compromise with the LTTE if the LTTE can be annihilated. In order to annihilate the LTTE the war must continue as promised. If the war is stopped halfway, then there is a need to talk to the LTTE as the terror group will still be in control of part of Sri Lanka which it controls using weapons and coercion.

Thirdly a compromise with the LTTE cannot solve the ethnic problem. Tamil separatism is the ethnic problem and as long as it lives, no matter what the “solution” is, the problem is going to stay. LTTE is the champion of Tamil separatism and without a doubt it will keep separatism alive as long as it survives. Therefore if the ethnic problem is to be solved to create ethnic harmony and ethnic unity, LTTE cannot be allowed to survive.

The fourth reason involves the additional bargaining power the LTTE gives to one ethnic community over another. Once LTTE is wiped-out there can be discussions with democratic Tamil political parties to address grievances faced by Tamils. These grievances of Tamils can then be addressed to the extent that others are not aggrieved. However, as it is, addressing all Tamil grievances and connected aspirations involve toning down others’ constitutional rights. Therefore a level of disappointment must be expected. What will happen if the LTTE is around? It will go to town with it and start another round of war to get what cannot be given. Thus it is imperative to annihilate the LTTE even for a democratic solution to hold.

Indianisation of Sri Lanka

India has no business here in Sri Lanka. However, going against Lankan sovereignty, India is trying to impose its “solutions” on Lanka. Eventually according to their plan Sri Lanka will have an Indian style violence where one community goes killing and sexually assaulting the other which is only too familiar in India even in the 21st century and where one region fights with another over resources. Hindu-Muslim violence, Hindu-Buddhist violence, Hindu-Christian violence and a myriad of other instances of racial intolerance defines what India is today. To top it all these intricacies are exploited by powerful neighbours! India suffered multiple fractures in the last century and its disintegration is not over yet. India is an example of failed integration and there is no sane reason why Lanka should even consider Indian advice on how to solve the ethnic problem.

However, India has found a good way to export its separatism abroad. While the Dravidian campaign (that aimed at creating a separate state for Dravidians especially Tamils) died an unnatural death in 1962, it emerged from Sri Lanka soon thereafter by way of the Vadukoddai resolution. Main reasons for the unnatural death of the Dravidistan movement were tougher anti-separatist laws and the war with China. Both reasons brought Indians close to each other. The timing of anti-separatist legislation couldn’t have been better! However, in Sri Lanka the exact opposite happened. People distanced from each other along racial lines and separatism raised its head with unseen vigour backed by terrorism. While India with all its ethnic intolerance is trying to move towards the Lankan model (by introducing tougher anti-separatist laws, Hindi as the national language), Indians encourage Sri Lanka to move towards the chaotic Indian model! The beneficiary is India. Today the Dravidistan movement is haunting Sri Lanka and even India can afford to team up with Tamil Nadu separatists in instigating Tamil separatism.

Regional economics of the Lankan conflict

India had very strong economic reasons for instigating, complicating and sustaining the Sri Lankan conflict. By the 1970s the world was divided along the two conflicting economic systems – capitalism and communism. India was one of the closest allies of the communist bloc although it was a nonaligned country. Sri Lanka too was a nonaligned country but like India held a pro-Soviet tendency in the early 1970s to late 70s. Then in 1977 an unprecedented economic move was made; Sri Lanka became the first south Asian country to openly and officially adopt the open economy which brought the island nation closer towards the US. India did its share to advance the communist concept by helping Tamil militant who interestingly followed a communist line of thinking at inception.

Reason number two is more interesting. India swiftly changed its economic direction in the late 1980s because it’s ally – Soviet Union - failed repeatedly to provide it with larger economic benefits which it needed to sustain its growing population. Within a few years India opened up its economy and reaped its benefits. It won multi billion dollar IT contracts that established a strong export base. The Indian IT exports industry is worth more than the Sri Lankan economy today. In spite of adopting open economic policies in 1977, more than ten years before India, Sri Lanka couldn’t get the advantages that come with it; Lanka lost the first mover advantage. Although Sri Lanka produced the CEO of Computer Associates, a pioneering software company, at a time when the Indian IT industry was in infancy, the country failed to follow suit. Had there not been this conflict, big US IT companies would have invested in Sri Lanka which had the whole gamut of the infrastructure and the right economic ‘attitude’ for foreign investments. Following a large foreign investment, local investors could have easily emulated as it is very common in the IT industry.

The same goes for many other industries that are lost opportunities for Sri Lanka whereas they were windfalls for India. The shipping and sea freight industry is another example.

China and other competitors are likely to come into business partnerships in Lanka much to the disadvantage of India if peace prevails. India on the other hands thrives in regional chaos; already it has inimical neighbours and one such additional neighbour doesn’t make any difference. This way it can balance both the warring parties and at the same time keep away outsiders.

Therefore it makes economic sense for India to keep war fires burning in Sri Lanka.

The victory dividend

Along with a fully fledged military victory comes economic revival. More than 30% of the land area that was not open to local and foreign investors will spin into business. Over 60% of the coastline will be added to industry giving unparalleled opportunities for the fisheries, tourism and connected industries for people of all races. Moreover economic benefit will accrue to Sri Lanka which was not the case for almost 25 years.

However, peace with the LTTE cannot bring any of these. It will be another economic devastation as in 2002-05 when Sri Lankan resources were wasted on LTTE controlled areas with not return for Lanka. Defence expenditure will continue to linger around the same level and war will re-emerge when tigers are ready.

Paramilitary activists need to be disarmed following the war. If LTTE remains, this cannot be done and that means more violence as we see in the east.

That is why this war must be fought to a finish.

If the government tries to prolong the war, people should put pressure for the continuation of the war at the end of which sustainable peace will result. Otherwise war and peace will again become the beggar’s wound.

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