Courtesy:  AI Overview

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AI Overview

Demographic shifts are placing Islam on a trajectory to potentially become the world’s most populous religion by the end of the 21st century

. Current data from Pew Research Center suggests that while the world is adjusting, significant social and political challenges remain. 

Global Growth and Parity

• Rapid Expansion: The global Muslim population is projected to grow by 73% between 2010 and 2050, compared to a 35% increase for Christians.
• Near Parity by 2050: By mid-century, Muslims are expected to reach near parity with Christians, with each group making up roughly 30-31% of the global population.
• Drivers: This growth is primarily fueled by a younger median age (24 vs. 30 for the global average) and higher fertility rates (3.1 children per woman vs. 2.5 globally). 

Shifts in Non-Muslim Countries

• Sweden

Europe: The Muslim share of Europe’s population is projected to rise from roughly 6% in 2010 to 10% by 2050. In high-migration scenarios, some countries like could see shares reach as high as 30%.

• United States

: Islam is expected to surpass Judaism as the second-largest religion in the U.S. by 2050.

• India

: Despite remaining a Hindu-majority nation,India is projected to have the largest Muslim population in the world by 2050, surpassing Indonesia.. 

Readiness and Challenges

• Social Friction: Research indicates that in some Western societies, information about these demographic shifts can increase perceptions of threat and negative sentiments among majority groups.
• Political Response: Some experts argue that short electoral cycles in Western democracies may prevent governments from effectively addressing the long-term social and political implications of these shifts.
• Economic Opportunity: Conversely, the “youth dividend” in Muslim-majority regions offers a massive potential for labor and innovation, provided there is adequate investment in education and development.
• Changing Majorities: Countries like the

United Kingdom

,

France

, and the

Netherlands

are projected to no longer have a Christian majority by 2050, though the largest single group in some may be the “religiously unaffiliated”

Courtesy:  AI Overview