Dr. Sudath Gunasekara Mahanuwara.
Before I present
my updated write up on the above topic I give here my prediction made on the
last Presidential Election on 14 Oct 2019 in
an email I sent to Mr Gothabhaya Rajapaksa.
Your victory as well as that of the country is a
foregone conclusion. I am repeating, you will be definitely starting with at
least 65 lakhs the minimum that is what the SLPP, UPF and SLFP got at the 2018
Local Government Elections. Looking at the present trend no one should be
surprised even if it exceeds 70 lahks.
(This is the
introduction of an email sent to GR on 14.Oct 2019)
The accuracy of my prediction was proved to the very letter when he polled 6,924,255 votes
and comprehensively won that election and I take pride in that forecast as I
was the only man who said so. Many of my friends expressed their reservations
on my conclusion. But I persistently maintained my conviction and finally it was
proved correct.
Similarly I ammaking this prediction this time too on
the upcoming General election after making a general survey of the political
situation on ground by listening to people in the work place, paddy field and
on the streets and media. In addition to the changes that have taken place over
the past two weeks changes bound to occur in the behavior of the electorate
between now and the 5th of August also have been taken in to
consideration in arriving at this conclusion. This election is definitely going to be a historic land mark in the
political history of this Island Nation and it will mark the beginning of a period
of new political culture, the change people of this country are yearning for
decades.
First of all I
opine the next General Election is going to be an important historic land mark
in the political history of this Island nation for the following reasons. The
final result will be something unexpected by any. But definitely it will happen
and it is destined to become a turning point in Lankan history.
The summary of my
considered guess on the outcome of the election is given below
1The SLPP will emerge
victorious with a landslide with 170 -175 or more out of 225 seats in the next
Parliament (Eg 150-155 elected and 20 national list slots, the minimum)
2 The UNP (Ranil and +Premadasa camps
together) will get 35 or 40 (elected + national list)
3 TNA this time
may get about 12 elected and 1 National list members
4 None of the
JVP candidates will get elected. They might get 1 national list seat.
5 Not a single Independent candidate will get
elected and they all will forfeit their deposits.
This overall
result is predicted on the basis of two sets of mutually exclusive factors
coming in to play, one negative and the other positive. Both sets will have adverse
negative effects on the present UNP and Samangi Balawegaya. It is very likely
they might get completely wiped out at the end and the term UNP” in any case will
be only past history thereafter. As the ongoing life and death battle between
the two camps with no intelligent policy statements or pragmatic solutions to
the burning problems of the people or the country with hardly any effective
rebuttal against the achievements of government in power and the failure to
offer any alternative to the people have already made both these camps dwarfs
in the 2020 election battle. The harvest of their follies will be handsomely reaped
by the SLPP, recording a landslide victory never expected by any, including
even those of the SLPP and the President’s Office. It reminds me of the 1956
and 1977 election scenarios but with a marked difference. That is in both those
occasions the opposition re-emerged but this
time there want be an opposition left behind as the UNP will disappear from the
political map of this country as a political party. There is also absolutely no
chance Saji’s Camp emerging either as an alternative as it is bound to
disintegrate in to pieces after the election.
First let us look at the negative factors I mentioned
above.
1This election
is held after 5 years of complete anarchy and political bungling and economic
mismanagement in this country under the ill-famed Sirisena–Ranil-Karu, the three
headed Government. Going by the present situation in the country, the political
environment at Home could be compared to a sinking and wrecking ship in mid
seas caught by a giant Tsunami, sans a captain to rescue and navigate it in the
proper direction.
2 We are going
to have this election at a time when the country is beset by extremely serious
crises in a plethora of political, economic and social fields never witnessed
before in this country.
3 The country is
going through a serious economic depression after the nation’s Central Bank had
been robbed by the then ruling UNP lead by its own leader, and subsequently the
whole country paralyzed by extremist Muslim terrorist attacks on the nerve
centers of the economy throughout the country, now in complete disarray and
reached its lowest growth level in its 72 years of Independence. On the top of
it is a time when the whole world is
undergoing one of the most difficult and unpredictable future due to the world
wide Covid 19 pandemic that has almost crippled the whole world and brought it
virtually on its knees almost to a non-returnable situation.
4 The country’s
economy is also undergoing one of the most difficult times ever in its history
more or less facing a national crisis level with no agricultural or industrial
production and nor exports, where the main foreign exchange inflow channels like foreign employment has
almost got dried up
5 Scanty
domestic FE reserves and worldwide economic depression and limitations and
constraints on exports and imports due to global restriction on shipping and
international trade mechanism and production in all sectors.
6 Meanwhile continued interference in our
domestic affairs and competition by powerful countries to take control of our
strategic situation on the great E-W trade route in the Indian Ocean in view of
its importance in the context of emerging supremacy of the Indo-Pacific zone in
world politics and by various International agencies hostile to this country
that are trying to create disunity among Sinahala, Tamil and Muslim communities
within the country that have created
many a problem to this country.
Second on the positive side
In spite of this
darker side, after 72 years of So-called Independence on the other hand, we as
a nation have got a patriotic and strong Sinhala Buddhist Statesman in
President Gothabhaya Rajapaksa as a man with a clear vision and a mission who
has the proven capacity to successfully
face all these challenges of multifaceted conundrum and take this country
out of the Augean mess it has been put in to by all politicians who are
supposed to have ruled this country for the past 72 years since the so-called
Independence in 1948.
None of them
knew the kind of fake Independence they got in 1948. As I see it none of them
knew that the kind of Independence given by the British was only a transfer of
continuation of the same British governance to a local set of kalu Suddhas to
run the country as their proxy. This is exactly what we are doing even today.
But the brainless politicians call it Independence. The true Bhumiputras of
this country, that is Sinhala Buddhists expect at least Gothabhaya Rajapaksa
the new President to make this country a fully pledge Independent and sovereign
State after this election. This perhaps
is the priority number one, the people of this country expects from him. This
long overdue political strategy forms
the cornerstone of all the rest like economic and social development as an Independent
sovereign and free country.
1 Going by his
past record as the Secretary of the Ministry of Defense, as to how he defeated
the LTTE and how he converted Colombo to be recognized as the best City in Asia
within four years after the war are enough testimonies for his ability and
leadership as a task master. His peerless success in these two fields almost
made him the Sinhala Buddhist benevolent Statesman with no peers overnight; the
nation was desperately looking for seven decades. That is why the whole nation
almost unanimously got him elected as the 8th President of this Island nation
with 6,924,255 votes that gave him an unprecedented majority of 1,360,016 in spite
of numerous false and vicious conspiracies and intrigues’ relentlessly deployed
against him until the last moment by anti-national ant-Sinhala forces both from
within the country and outside the shores to prevent him from getting even
nominations. All such attempts were successfully foiled and finally truth
prevailed, justice won and he got him elected as the 8th President of this
country to the overwhelming joy of the Sinhala nation at last.
The way how he
has conducted in office as well as in personal life since he was sworn in front
of the Ruwanwelimahaseya and his short but dignified speech from the hallowed
precincts of the Great Stupa reminded me ancient traditions of our great Kings
who swore in in front of the Mahasangha to rule the Lankan Kingdom according to
the Dasaraaja Dhamma. How he set about thereafter by ordering not to exhibit
his photo in Government offices, reducing his staff, and even security and
banning all state tamasas, reducing the Cabinet to 17 and his simple dress and
manners has won the admiration and the hearts of the masses. How he managed the
Covid 19 pandemic when even countries like USA have miserably failed, has
already made him the most outstanding national leader the post Independent Sri
Lanka has produced. The majority in the country are unanimous on this
consensus. For them he is already a national idol and a hero as well. For the
poor and those deprived of their daily bread due to the Covid 19 disaster, the
food basket and the 5000 payment given was manna from heaven in their difficult
times. As for me I see in him as the
legendary Diyasena eulogized in Perakumbasirita by Sri Thotagamuve Rahula Thera
at last born to rescue this thrice blessed Punyabhuumi, by Lord Buddha.
All these
actions on his part have convinced the masses that at last after 72 years of
so-called Independence they have got a Patriotic and honest Sinhala Buddhist
task master Statesman of proven ability and unblemished character beyond any
doubt in Gothabahaya Rajapaksa, as the Head of State they have been looking for
decades.
2 At the same
time there is an unprecedented emerging unity among the Sinhala nation from
west to East and North to South and from the sea to mountain tops throughout
the country with no regard what so ever to their differences like caste, creed
and religion as one nation.
3 A towering
sense of belonging together also has emerged among the people of the country as
one nation due to the exemplary leadership of Maha Sangha in unison and
Catholic clergy headed by His Eminence Cardinal Malcom Ranjit Fernando.
4 The splitting
of the main opposition party UNP and infighting within it for personal gain and
glory rather than the concern for the people and the vituperative speeches
thrown at each party have left the grass root UNPers dismayed, frustrated,
disillusioned and high and dry. Majority of UNPers have already realized that
hanging on to UNP an already a sunken ship will not take them anywhere under
these circumstances. In sum all of them know pretty well that there is
virtually no UNP as an alternative Political party that can come to power ever in
the foreseeable future. It is already dead and buried under six feet, thanks to
Ranil and Sajit Premadasa. No one will hear about the UNP after 5th of August.
5 The patriotic
younger generation looking for change and new hopes getting attracted by this
new leadership qualities displayed by Gota have already got rallied round him
6 Nationwide
hope and the dream for political stability under a joint partnership between
the proven and able leadership qualities of the Rajapaksa brothers specially
the charismatic MR and proactive and dynamic Gota the task master who does not
tolerate humbug and who has aptly proved his capacity in his war against the
savages LTTE, as the Defense Sec of the country and as the President of the
country from the day he was elected as
the President and more particularly as to how he rescued the nation form
the Covid 19 pandemic when almost all world leaders have failed has made the
people confident that they have got the
leadership they were looking for decades who can rescue this country out of the
political, economic and Social mess in to which successive Governments have
dumped it.
7 The newly
emerging wave and the sense of patriotism and Sinhala Buddhist nationalism
gathering momentum around this new leadership supported by the Three Forces,
Professionals, Civil Servants and the Six National Forces Sanga, Veda, Guru,
Govi-kamkaru and Ranaviru and the youth votes around the country brimming with
new hope and power like a multi barrel war machine rolling across the battle
field are taking the lead for nation building under the new President.
At the same time we see all round auspicious
sings like anti-national elements getting caught and exposed daily clearing the
way for the nation to march forward without any obstacles.
In this most
encouraging and welcome backdrop the Pohottuwa will emerge victorious in a
landslide victory unheard and unseen in the political history of post
Independent Sri Lanka. I predicted SLPP 69-70
lakhs at the last Presidential poll and Gota polled 6,924,255. Based on
the same argument at this election the SLPP should get it increased to at least
80 lakhs of votes taking in to account ground reality factors like the
defections from the UNP, JVP, Tamil and Muslim votes and new youth segment, who
are seriously looking for a complete change in Sri Lankn politics. Therefore the
SLPP should bag at least 150t-155 out of 196 elected seats and therefore it
will bag at least 20 national list pin
slots as well, making the total to stand around 175 since the UNP disarrayed
factions together are very unlikely to get even 25 lakhs this time as against
the 5,564,239 Premadasa polled at the Presidential election. Both Ranila nd
Sajith camps will get at least 2,500,000 less than what he got at the
Presidential election.
1 On the other hand
substantial number out of UNP floating voters will also vote with the Pohottuwa
this time as they are convinced that there is no point in betting a losing
horse. The disgusted UNP hard liners will boycott elections and that will also
drastically reduce the UNP votes. The JVP as usual will get eliminated at this
election for their sins they have committed to this nation and they are also
very unlikely to get any national list slots either. The chances of UNP getting
Thodamans votes is also not there at this election as Mahinda has played his
cards well, the SLPP will get a majority of Estate Tamil votes. Estate Tamil
votes not going to SLPP getting divided between R and S will also unlikely to
make any significant impact over the overall results. But even if those
brainless Sinhala Budhhist UNPers who are suffering from chronic and incurable
UNP constipation syndrome fail to realize the gravity and the seriousness of
the crime they are going to commit against the Sinhala nation and the Sinhala
Buddhist civilization in this country by voting an anti-Sinhala, anti-Buddhist
and anti-national force, that is UNP, that is now fast disintegrating and
disappearing as a national political force in no time from the surface of this
land. Under these circumstances no force either at Home or abroad can stop the
victory of the Sinhala Buddhist forces led by Rajapaksas at this election.
There is a likelihood of all Sinhala forces drifting towards this historic
goal. I have a deep feeling all forces will merge and coalesce to emerge as one
giant national force to rescue this Land of the Buddha on the 5th of August.
Under these circumstances, even though there is going
to be a substantial drop in the voter turnout, no one can stop the MR Camp
getting a 2/3 majority in the 2020 Parliament. It will go down in history as the biggest
electoral victory ever in the post Independent Sri Lanka by any political
Party. As for me, I am fully confident that this miracle will happen on the 5th
of August, the results of which will be obvious by the 6th evening.
Taking the above
situation as a stimulant and a blessing in disguise the whole nation should
rise in unison as a mighty force in one roar like the Phoenix from ashes under
the new patriotic and vibrant leadership of President Rajapaksa to march
forward as one united and determined nation
Thereafter it is
left for Gothabhaya and Mahinda to lay the firm foundation to rescue this
country and the Sinhala Nation from all misdeeds and misfortunes committed by
all the previous Governments since 1948.
Now what all of
us, the patriotic people of this country have to do is to give the President a
clear and stable Government by voting the SLPP en-block at the forthcoming
election to enable to have a strong government exceeding 2/3 majority under MR
in Parliament to carry out the Presidents avowed mission by the nation and our
motherland.