Dilrook Kannangara

ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”The more you bash Sri Lanka, the better off the Tamils areƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢. This is the guiding principle of the Tamil Diaspora, UNHRC headed by a Tamil, India controlled by Tamil political parties, manyfold Tamil NGOs abroad and in Sri Lanka, Tamil political parties in Sri Lanka and Tamil civil activists in Sri Lanka. The government of President Rajapaksa keeps appeasing Tamils. What it doesnƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢t realize is there will never be an end to Sri Lanka bashing if such bashing producers results for the bashers. A local saying goes, only a tree full of fruits get stoned, a barren tree will not be stoned. This is more applicable to Sri Lanka than any other country. It is high time the government understood this modus operandi and approach it accordingly.

Terrorism Has Two Well Co-ordinated Claws ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢¢”š¬…” One Hard, One Soft

Conventional war is about testing the military and political superiority of the parties. However, terrorism is completely different. In terrorism, the objective is to gain as much as possible from a government. There are two well co-ordinated claws in all terrorist operations. One is a hard one that carries out acts of terror forcing terrified governments and people to seek protection and peace. Then comes the soft arm of terrorism. It reassures the terrified people and the government and offers ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”solutionƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢. This ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”solutionƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ is nothing but a highly disadvantageous position for the terrified people and the government. It is all about extortion. Once the extorted favour is obtained, the hard claw (terrorist group) scales down attacks temporarily. However, their attacks resume after a while. The cycle continues. Terrified people lose more and more while terrorist people gain more and more. It is this cycle that is known as terrorism.

In the Sri Lankan case the hard claw of terrorism comprised of the LTTE, EROS, TELO (military wing) and today it is made up of GTF, TFO, BTF, UNHRC and Tamil Nadu. The soft claw of terrorism is made up of TULF, Jehan Perera, CPA, TNA, UNHRC, India and western imperialists.

Despite the defeat of the LTTE in 2009, terrorism continues through other Tamil actors.

Ending the Vicious Cycle of Terrorism

The vicious cycle of threats, extortion, gratification and threats again needs to be broken to save the nation. It cannot be done by giving into Tamil demands hoping the demand will end. On the contrary, they increase with every successful demand. Instead a cap or a stop must be put to Tamil demands. Once the terror operators are convinced their demands fall on deaf ears, they are forced to give up gradually.

Tamils have a choice of extortion targets including Sri Lanka, India, Malaysia, Canada, Australia, etc. However, only Sri Lanka has been playing according to their expectations and as a result they have been concentrating only on Sri Lanka. When the government of Sri Lanka stops giving into Tamil demands, they will be forced to seek their demands elsewhere. Dravidistan demand was cut down by India in 1930s for the first time, 1947 for the second time and almost entirely in 1962 which pushed the Tamil national struggle to Sri Lanka. Tamils must be convinced Sri Lanka is not their paradise.

Tamils have cleverly exploited this temporary geopolitical goldmine in their favour.

Geopolitical Developments in the Near Future

At the moment geopolitics of the region is highly disadvantageous to Sri Lanka. The US-India axis is on a rampage intimidating all regional countries and China. There is a respite in terrorist threats on western interests which has given them more time to concentrate on human rights. However, it is fast changing. A definitive change is due after December 2014. NATO troops will substantially leave Afghanistan conceding defeat in December 2014 leaving a very weak Afghan security force to battle a rejuvenated Taliban. The terrorist group has already shifted gears anticipating the 2014 retreat. NATO troops have no future in Afghanistan as they are substantially leaving in another two years and the only challenge will be the Afghan army which is now taking a massive beating. Although NATO casualties have decreased after the announcement of the withdrawal plan, there is a corresponding and huge increase in Afghan troop casualties. How long can the weak Afghan troops last? Not very long as popular sentiment is rising against them from within. All the freedoms, democracy and security assurances ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”wonƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ by NATO will be buried by January 2015.

However, the withdrawal poses a massive security threat to western interests. Just because the NATO troops withdraw, the war will not stop. In fact the Taliban will be back in the west with a vengeance. NATO is now seeking help from India and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to intervene in the war torn country trying to contain the terrorists. India tries to pass the responsibility to SCO. It is unthinkably stupid for the SCO to assume this needless menace created by the west. Afghanistan or the Taliban is not the responsibility of the SCO. In fact, this potent terror group can be a strategic asset of the SCO against western hegemony. Hopeful of IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s positive response, USA props up India with every way it can. USA and its allies changed their decades old policy of not supplying nuclear materials to India. Western weapons are free flowing to India now. Kashmir and other horrendous Indian war crimes are forgotten by the west, for now.

USA Desperately Seeks Troop Commitment from India in Afghanistan

Late 2009 Robert Blake made a request to the Lankan Defence Secretary to send troops to Afghanistan as the war has ended which was put down citing unrest among local Muslims. It came with a warning ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢¢”š¬…” unless Sri Lanka agrees, USA will bring war crimes allegations against the island nation. The US Possible War Crimes Report was released following the refusal to supply troops. Repeated requests were made with no positive outcome. Similar requests were made from India. Instead of an outright denial, India has been relaying mixed signals. Reluctantly it agreed to train the Afghan troops and police. However, India is pressurised to make a firm troop commitment in Afghanistan before the NATO troops leave in 2014. India now tries to convince SCO to ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ”¹…”play a bigger roleƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ in post-2014 Afghanistan. It is a ridiculous demand as India is only an observer state in the SCO, not a full member! Besides the SCO is not a military organisation.

During the time of the last UNP government (2001-2004), Sri Lanka was among 54 countries that participated in a global network of involuntary disappearances, torture, murder and other human rights abuses led by the USA. Unarmed Muslim civilians were tortured and unlawful restrained under these activities in 2003. It created a rift between the then UNF government and its Muslim ally ƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢¢”š¬…” SLMC. In the same year Sri Lanka was instructed not to sign the Rome Statute Against Torture by the US network so that the country can remain a torture hub of the US network. For this reason, USA now wants a regime change in Sri Lanka which will bring back the UNP which interoperated with the USA on the global torture campaign. USA is hopeful if the UNP comes to power it will send Lankan troops to fight in Afghanistan. Although the 2001-2004 UNP contribution to the global torture network had minimal domestic effects, a troop commitment to Afghanistan will be cataclysmic. In short, the war in Afghanistan will come home to Colombo.

During many US military operations, Pakistan played a key role. But that mistake condemned them to total ruination. Today even the US attacks Pakistan with drones! Going to Afghanistan is such an unwise approach despite strong American influence to do so.

End of the US-India Honeymoon

If India falls into this inducement, chaos will rule the worldƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s largest democracy. Logistical advantages of closer proximity, large unused armed forces, excess capacity of Indian troops, battle experience for Indian troops, US-EU military support to upgrade Indian weapons, concessionary weapons purchases from the US-EU and other sweeteners are not sufficient for India to go to war in Afghanistan. Large scale violence, explosions, attacks and disruptions will derail India if it goes to war. Therefore, India will have to reject the US proposal. Although Indian has been successful in buying time, the clock is ticking as December 2014 approaches fast. Sooner rather than later, USA will demand troops from India. That is when the US-India honeymoon will end.

It is better for USA to help disintegration of India as it will give the west more options. Smaller nations, like in former Soviet nations or former Yugoslav nations, will be friendlier with USA in return for protection, favourable trade concessions and geopolitical advantage. As such, when India refuses to play by US rules on Afghanistan, etc., USA will disintegrate India. Indian disintegration will be highly beneficial to IndiaƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢s neighbours as they could engage with these smaller nations on an equal footing in the absence of the bully. The process itself will be beneficial as it will bring them many global advantages.

Implications for Sri Lanka

No one can save Sri Lanka from suicide, if its leaders prefer itƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ . Not giving into 2012 UNHRC demands was a brave move by the administration. Hopefully defiance in the face of foreign threats will continue in 2013 as well. The government must follow a broader approach with a longer time span. As the current geopolitical impasse will pass in another 20 monthsƒÆ’‚¢ƒ¢-¡‚¬ƒ¢-¾‚¢ time, Sri Lanka must not hurry into any US, India or UNHRC demand. Tamils in Sri Lanka have equal rights (equal individual rights) and they deserve nothing more. Giving too much rights to Tamils will inflate Tamils into a community of geopolitical clout in the region which is a disaster. Give into no Tamil demand and wait out till the dark clouds of the current geopolitical impasse pass over. The party that can withstand and persevere for the longest, wins this warƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ raged at the UNHRC.

We don’t wish the UNHRC majority to vote against the anti-Sri Lanka resolution.ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ We don’t challenge their free choice.ƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ But we all wish the Sri Lankan government to totally disregard the twoƒÆ’-¡ƒ”š‚ UNHRC resolutions against Sri Lanka and continue its good work to assimilate all Sri Lankans into one nationality.

Disregard of the 2012 UNHRC resolution pushed it to the rubbish bin of history. Now USA brings another resolution. That too will end in the same bin if the government wisely continues its disregard for UNHRC impositions.

It is timely to remind the President his own words – there are two groups of people; those who love Sri Lanka and those who don’t. It is productive to safeguard the interests of those who love Sri Lanka. Sacrifices of 27,000 men and women cannot be betrayed to appease the enemies of the nation. The camp that has no love for Sri Lanka can find their love elsewhere