Election Results: MID-TERM REPORT
Posted on July 30th, 2015

By GOMIN DAYASRI

Candidates made up, with make up, show pretty faces, virtually unrecognizable when met with their harassed appearances. Trick photography at photo shop makes them look younger and leaner.  Strapped across are their numbers sans rugby jerseys but do a localized Haka with a smile on a platform.

Will the government and the opposition extract the votes they collected at the presidential elections held 10 months ago? If so, the result is foreknown but the emerging picture is more byzantine – campaigns geared for a ‘manape’ contest does not excite voters. Worse, it is the same old disreputable names recycled in vintage bottles.

Turn out would be lower than at the previous, if political parties treat voters shabbily by providing undesirables to vote for, an insult to their intelligence. Don’t take the voter for a sucker –if hurt, retribution will be harsh. Rajapakse suffered the first dose of the awful concoction: UNP had many more.

If the polling stations register a low slow poll on the morning of the elections, Rajapakse could sense a yellow card is drawn against him. If an aggressive poll materializes in the first three hours, means Mahinda is playing referee armed with a red card to throw at foul play. If the polling is regular it is a close election. This is an alternate formula for a homemade exit poll used by public servants at polling booths.

Watch for early returns of the postal vote. If the early results disclose a close call at the postal vote: so it will be at the final count. That vote was overwhelmingly for Rajapakse but now is more evenly distributed. Will this trend continue? It will reveal if the first three postal results show uniformity. Ordinary state employees vote with the government in power but a swing in the country will show if there is an anti or pro movement among public servants.

Previously, Mahinda carried the vote with the helping hand of his majesties services at his easy disposal that were over worked, overtime. This time he has to pay for space searched; cannot afford the same. Mahinda comes from a fractured party with dubious backers and decayed horsemen enjoying state patronage.

A motivated campaign can inspire people to carry Rajapakse way beyond? Crowds at his meetings are a stimulated bunch; does not run deep outside the captive audience. Rajapakse’s weakness primed the moment his motely crowd of candidates’ names surfaced. National list members have risen, as if, from the dead. It carries many rejected parliamentarians and featherweight intellects known for spinning yarns to put Mahinda to sleep. New faces have affinity to the discredited old. Rajapakse has people at the ground level because of the war victory but they remain dormant with a refusal to align with the candidates named. Where have all his young people gone…gone to slumber due to disuse and discard? You need be a progeny of the charmed circle to be counted.

Ranil cannot attract Sirisena’s vote bank that is grievously splintered with many pecking for a share of it. JVP is running on it’s own and is a more attractive proposition. Fonseka is carrying his negligible few but that few can make a difference since the majority is slim. The northern vote does not get aggregated at the national count and stops its progress at district level unlike at the presidential election. Tamils in the south have formed mushroom parties and will pick a share of the vote for keeps. JHU is fatally discredited and for survival depends on the UNP vote to gain respectability having forfeited the Sinhala Buddhist vote with its double talk.

Sirisena, the pin up boy of the past, is now a lost nowhere man. Remember it is the North that brought Sirisena to his glory and that vote will not be counted beyond the district.  With a limited plus vote to attract, UNP reaches the near maximum on Sirisena’s aggregate. UNP has to retain that vote and not let it slide away. Its national list contains a share of Mahinda’s hidden loyalists in deceptive green caps. Why is a favorite son Karu Jayasuriya hidden without extracting a turbo boosts from otherwise a dismal Buddhist vote UNP possesses in the South? Inter party feuds are more important to the leadership than the importance of winning an election.

This leaves a large float vote idling. Mahinda’s campaign is not attracting the vote that floated away from him but the governance of the UNP, which is its own worse enemy, is drawing it towards Rajapakse, as are Mahinda’s candidates standing in the way of anchoring the dissatisfied youth with the UPFA.

Few months of Ravi Kaunanayake at Finance Ministry has done as much harm to the UNP as the Central Bank did to Rajapakse for years – in distancing the institutions from the peoples’ yearnings.

Arjuna Mahendra issue does not take the air borne route to the rural- it disturbs Colombo’s moneymen that will vote UNP, anyway, after mollycoddling the Rajapakse Family for years, now out of favor.

If the UNP is to win it has to hold on to the Facebook’s under – 35 vote that Sirisena acquired without a sweat. Vote is not static but the slippage is yet not coming in hordes since the UPFA campaign targets on the ‘manape’ vote without a damn to attract the impressionable new youth vote in the urban quarter. If UNP loses a substantial share of the urban middle class youth vote at elections 2015 it can occupy the opposition office again, as many groups are seeking good governance vote under diverse names alleging the UNP for its ineptitude. If the Colombo count becomes close; families and friends of these fringe ‘good governance’ groups with a few thousand votes can make the difference. Colombo, so far, is secure for the UNP but that is not good enough to win comprehensively as the rural vote is swinging against them except in sure Kandy and is marginally ahead in Puttlam and Badulla.

Badulla district is the place to watch – is a traditional UNP home. Unlock it: is a forerunner of the ultimate winner – a backward district that weathers changing fortunes and reads the Sri Lankan political chronicle correctly.

Few months ago when Sirisena won: Badulla district, bordered by pro-UNP Nuwara Eliya and pro- UPFA Moneragala, went with Sirisena picking a wafer thin majority of 261 votes; Rajapakse won only three of the nine constituencies namely Mahiyanganaya, Wiyaluwa and Uva Paranagama.

Looks easy for Rajapakse on paper in 2015 with the JVP and Fonseka in the field. They collected at the 2014 Pradesheeya Sabha elections respectively 20,625 and 4835 votes in Badulla district, which the UPFA won with a majority of 11348 votes. It reveals JVP and Fonseka votes count in the Badulla district results.

This time around UNP will clean the Indian Tamil vote with Thondaman loosing ground at the wage negotiations. But that vote is insufficient to register a win. It is the swing electorates of Welimada and Bandarawela that will decide the outcome to determine the winner of the critical Badulla district.

The general perception is different. UNP is expected to win with a smart campaign under Harin Fernando deemed attractive to the youth while the UPFA carries on with its usual colorless campaign concentrating to gain manapes instead of the district. Is the statistician going to undo public opinion?

However economic issues are more likely to take over. Falling prices for tea and rubber for small holders, with no guaranteed prices for the purchase of rice and other crops, denial of employment prospects in projects and construction and road activity are at a standstill with the cost of living rising sky high makes it fortunate being in the opposition.

Bid & Buy process of the elected representatives commences with the release of the election results. Election campaigns are financial windfalls for candidates of the major parties because black money gets into circulation in bulk from the vaults of the blue chips and secret drawers of the wheeler – dealers. A photo finish at the end of the contest is where the party whip loses the control of its winners. It will be a free fall like in bungee jumping. Its bonus time for the winning candidates, where money talks and tongues wag: the spotlight falls on the crossover artisans. Will the Yankee dollar outsmart the Chinese Yuan or the Indian Rupee hold sway to lasso around MPs of doubtful pedigrees? Local currency is candy- floss compared to supplies from Embassy Street. Final result is not contrived by voters but on the weight of hefty war chests provided by the alien powers –if the result is too close a call. Elections are democratic thus far and no further.  Election Commissioner becomes a passive spectator.

Sirisena is stupid if he fails to act democratically in his presidential role, forgetting petty prejudices to over come the peoples will. He is safer with Ranil: owes much for propelling him to the present position. If Rajapakse wins and is not given due recognition, Parliament has the power to make financial cuts to make a President smaller in stature than the 19th amendment envisaged.

The silver line is in having a stable government after heavy traffic is acquired from the losing side but it would not last long in an environment where governments are compelled to last four and a half years according to the 19th amendment. Passing bucks will keep governments’ in office. J.R.Jayewardane strove to make his governments stable: his heirs strive to make it weak. Who will benefit…undoubtedly the opposition?  Whose dunnit?

15 Responses to “Election Results: MID-TERM REPORT”

  1. Ananda-USA Says:

    A VOTE for the Un-Patriotic Party (UNP) is a VOTE FOR EELAM led by the Tiger Nominated Agents (TNA)!

  2. Ananda-USA Says:

    TRICKY WICKY the Eelamist is getting Cold Feet! Suddenly …. he wants to remain impartial having been INCURABLY COMMUNAL until now demonizing the UPFA GoSL with Genocide and War Crimes ….. and distance himself from the TNA! Oh, My …. is the water getting too cold for ya, TRICKY WICKY?

    This UNABASHED REPROBATE ….. who thrived with Sinhala support on the Supreme Court ….. a father-in-law to Sinhala men …. FORGOT his Jucicial Prerogative to be Fair, Just and Patritic and joined the EELAMIST Bandwagon to curry favor with the Tiger Nominated Agents of the TNA once he became Chief Minister!

    Now he senses that the direction of the wind is going to suffer a SEA CHANGE on August 17, 2015 and is moving to a LESS COMMUNAL position saying “I am one who would be able to work with whomsoever our people are pleased to elect.”

    May God Damn his Black Hide …. and THROW HIM INTO the FIRE to ROAST on August 17, 2015. Once a BACKSTABBER …. ALWAYS a BACKSTABBER! TRICKY WICKY the Bloody HYPOCRITE!

    ………………………..
    Northern Province CM to remain neutral at Sri Lanka election

    Colombopage.com

    July 30, Colombo: The chief minister of the Northern Province, C V Wigneswaran has said that he would remain neutral and non-partisan during next month’s general election, despite being elected to his seat by the Tamil National Alliance (TNA).

    The Chief Minister has said that it would be wrong for him to be seen at any political meeting of the TNA candidates though it was they who elected him.

    “I am one who would be able to work with whomsoever our people are pleased to elect. Whatever the result may be it is hoped that whosoever is elected should work united for the betterment and wellbeing of our people. The welfare and wellbeing of our people takes precedence over Party considerations,” he says in a statement released yesterday and obtained by Tamil Guardian.

    Wigneswaran said he expects the people to elect in the coming Election those who would work for “our people dedicatedly.”

    He said that the Tamil people need people’s representatives who are “honest in politics, strong in principles, dedicated in people’s service, far in sight and incorruptible in spirit.”

    The former justice of the Supreme Court highlighted that the post war rehabilitation, resettlement and development remains a “piece-meal exercise” that is “not in tune with the needs and priorities of our People.” While permanent political solution to the conflict remains elusive, Justice for the war affected remains distant, he noted.

    “You the people have a paramount duty to send the best among us to tackle these challenges,” he said in his statement.

    Recalling a question posed to him by a politician from the South – whether the TNA would accept ministerships in the new government if offered, Mr Wigneswaran said “my view was that under no circumstances should our representatives accept portfolios until a political solution is found.”

    “Otherwise the demands of our people would get dissipated and we would be engulfed by the majority community. The Ministers would be stifled by Cabinet Responsibility. lt would be the surest way to compromise our rights and aspirations.”

    He said, whatever the outcome at the election is, they will look for the support of the international community to support the Tamil people as they attempt to shape a future that is built on strong democratic foundations.

    “We urge the International Community to walk along with us as we strive to live up to the hopes and aspirations of our peoples,” the Chief Minister said.

  3. Susantha Wijesinghe Says:

    HO HO HO !!!! This is not TRICKY WICKY. This is TRAITOR, PERPETRATOR, CONSPIRATOR, HYPOCRITE NESWARAN.

    **We would be engulfed by the Majority Community** Damning Hipocrisy !! Mis-leading the Tamil Community in toto.

    WHAT IS THIS POLITICAL SOLUTION VIGGIE IS WAITING FOR ?? Traitor, waiting for EELAAM, Eh ???

    “””Whatever the outcome at the Election, they will look for the support of the International Community to support the Tamil People.””” Damning Conspirator, to bring Interlopers to meddle with the Internal Affairs of the Government of Sri Lanka. As if the REST are going to watch **the walk along** by the International Community. NOW MAY I ASK WHO THIS INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS ?? I hope it will include Dalits from South India, who will come and defecate on the streets of Jaffna.

    ***We urge the International Community to walk along with us*** Damning PERPE-TRAITOR, To break up the Harmony of the Ethnic Communities of Sri Lanka.

    Resettlement and development remains a ” piece-meal exercise” that is “” not in tune with the needs and priorities of our people” THIS IS THE TRUTH. 27,000 Sinhalese who were ethnically cleansed from the North have still to be resettled. Then, 100,000 Muslims who were ethnically cleansed within 48 hours too have to be resettled. WHO PLAYED THE TUNE IS ANYBODYS GUESS.

    I really admire this NEUTRALITY, damning hypocrite.

    Ananda !! may all your wishes come true. Blessings of The Noble Triple Gem for the Sinhalese of Sri Lanka.

  4. LANKAPUTHRA Says:

    Gomin, you, as usual encrypted news update can be only understood by Sinhalese like Susantha Wijesinghe, but for the Urban SINHALA it is little bit difficult. If any body wants to know, it is the Buddulla District that MR should win. If he gets the majority votes then his party and the seat is safe. Now Gomin like others has to throw a rock at late JR. I do not know why Sinhala are so infallible to look at JR in this context. What happened to the 6th amendment and constitution? Gomin should be asking him self IS THIS GOVERNMENT LEGAL? How was it created? TAMILS FOR OBAMA knew how to ride on the HORA CHANT. Soon after the election MUSLIM OBAMA CALLED RANIL PUNK and told him RORA chant must come to the street level. Election commissioner must do his job of counting the vote and not the security or who violates election rules. Former CJ Sarath De Silva clearly stated that his government is not legal. RANIL PUNK tells the supreme court what to do and what verdict they should give. Gomin, please tell us how much kappan did he pay you to write the Musical chairs article that was published on Lankaweb?

  5. Ratanapala Says:

    Sirisena won on 8 Jan with the Separatist and Jihadist Vote.

    Sirisena won on a separatist, jihadist and Christian vote. That summarises what he is and what he now so stubbornly wants to stand for. It is time that every Sinhala Buddhist think clearly whether he or she wants a divided and broken Sri Lanka and non ending warfare. Sinhala Buddhists have something very big to loose which has not happened during their 2600 year recorded Sirisena won with Separatist Votes.

    Sirisena won on a separatist, jihadist and Christian vote. That was to end the Sri Lanka’s future as a Unitary State. The votes that decided for him to be the President of Sri Lanka came from the hands of the Separatists, Jihadists and Christians. That summarises what he is and what he now so stubbornly wants to stand for. He cannot claim to he the President of Sri Lanka or rather the interim president of a divided Sri Lanka.

    It is time that every Sinhala Buddhist think clearly whether he or she wants a divided and broken Sri Lanka and non ending warfare. Sinhala Buddhists have something very big to loose which has not happened during their 2600 year recorded history. If the Eelam project and other “istans” become a reality in different parts of the island it will be swansong of the Sinhalese Buddhists. There will not be any return to status quo. It is only in a Sinhala Buddhist run administration that all other communities can live and prosper.

    In Eelam there will be ethnic cleansing. In the ‘”Istans” there will be Sharia and Sinhala Buddhists and others discriminated as infidels.

    Therefore all Sinhala Buddhists, Tamils and Muslims who desire to live and prosper in peace and harmony must think many times over before they cast their votes. It is very simple – It is between Libya, Syria, Iraq and the supposed to be and yet unproven vagaries of a Mahinda Rajapakse administration.

    With all the blame that has been laid at his feet and his administration – I will gladly go for the lesser and the known devil that is Mahinda Rajapakse and his supposed to be corrupt administration than for Christian Ranil who has already many times over displayed his animosity towards the Unitary State of Sri Lanka and towards Sinhala Buddhists in particular.

  6. SA Kumar Says:

    It is only in a Sinhala Buddhist run administration that all other communities can live and prosper !!!

    My Sinhala Sakotharam last 2600 years what happened in Mother lanka and will happen for another 2600 years more ….

    Do not get panic with these unlawful administration Govt by these three head of state (MS/RW/CBK).

    Eg: TNA only going to get 3 seats out of 7 ( 1 UNP/ 2 SLFP(EPDP)/ 1 IC / 3 TNA) in Jaffna !!!

    Nalai pirrakkum TE always Nalai pirakku ( Tomorrow will get TE always We will get Tomorrow (Not Today) We repeat ever day since Eelara time to VP than to day)!

    Om Shanthy !!!

  7. NAK Says:

    Lads,Atul Keshap with his state Dept.boss is here to survey the Sampur Land,all 1300Hec.of it and perhaps the southern side of the Trinco port and China bay air strip. Everything is ready to go for the US Army SE Asia Indian ocean command

  8. Fran Diaz Says:

    It appears that Pres Sirisena won on jan 9 by some pre-arranged cheating at the election. Reliable sources have said that double voting and minors’ voting took place for MS.

    Curious that no VIP or lawyers have challenged this in the Courts.

  9. Susantha Wijesinghe Says:

    VIGGIE HAS TO SERIOUSLY TAKE COGNISCANCE OF WHAT I SAY HERE.

    THERE IS ONLY ONE PERSON IN THIS COUNTRY WHO CAN, AND WILL ALWAYS REFER TO SRILANKANS AS *OUR PEOPLE*
    THAT ONE PERSON IS THE PRESIDENT OF SRI LANKA.

    VIGGIE HAS NO RIGHT TO USE THE WORD “”OUR PEOPLE”” IT IS BLATANTLY CLEAR THAT HE REFERS TO ** OUR PEOPLE ** AS TAMIL PEOPLE. HENCE IT IS OBVIOUS THAT IT IS WITH MALICIOUS INTENT, AND WITH REFLECTIONS OF RACISM. HE CAN CONTINUE TO USE THAT TERM TILL THE COWS COME HOME. IT IS MALA FIDE, AND THE MORE HE USES IT, THE MORE HE CLINGS ONTO RACISM, AND THE MORE HE IS EXPOSED AS A HARDCORE RACIST.

  10. Indrajith Says:

    Today’s Divaina reports:

    ‘බැඳුම්කර මගඩිය’ අනිද්දා එළිදකී

    රට තුළ ඉමහත් ආන්දොaලනයට තුඩු දී තිබෙන මහ බැංකුවේ භාණ්‌ඩාගාර බැඳුම්කර නිකුතුව පිළිබඳව ‘බැඳුම්කර මගඩිය’ නමින් ලියෑවුණු නවතම ග්‍රන්ථය එළිදැක්‌වීම අනිද්දා (03 වැනි සඳුදා) සවස 3.30 ට කොළඹ 07, නිදහස්‌ මාවතේ, ජාතික පුස්‌තකාල හා ප්‍රලේඛන සේවා මණ්‌ඩල ශ්‍රවණාගාරයේදී සම්භාවනීය ආරාධිතයන් රැසකගේ සහභාගීත්වයෙන් සිදු කෙරේ.

    මාධ්‍යවේදී ශ්‍යාම් නුවන් ගනේවත්ත විසින් රචිත මේ ග්‍රන්ථය ඔහු විසින් රචනා කරනු ලබන ආර්ථික ග්‍රන්ථ මාලාවේ හත්වැනි ග්‍රන්ථයයි. මෙතෙක්‌ රජයට විශාලතම මූල්‍ය පාඩුව සිදු කළ බවට චෝදනා එල්ල වූ මහ බැංකු බැඳුම්කර නිකුතුවේ ඇතුල් කතාව ලෙස හඳුන්වාදී ඇති මේ ග්‍රන්ථය මගින්, එම බැඳුම්කර නිකුතුවට අදාළ ආර්ථිකමය කරුණු රැසක්‌ ඉතා සරළව විවරණය කර ඇත.

    මෙම ග්‍රන්ථය එළිදැක්‌වීමේ උත්සවයේ ප්‍රධාන ආරාධිත දෙසුම පවත්වනු ලබන්නේ හිටපු අගවිනිසුරු සරත් එන්. ද සිල්වා මහතා ය. හිටපු කෝප් සභාපති ඩිව් ගුණසේකර, හිටපු පාර්ලිමේන්තු මන්ත්‍රී සහ කෝප් කමිටු සාමාජික මහාචාර්ය රජීව විඡේසිංහ සහ හිටපු මහ බැංකු අධිපති අජිත් නිවාඩ් කබ්රාල් යන මහත්වරු ද මෙහිදී අදහස්‌ දක්‌වනු ලබයි. මේ සම්බන්ධයෙන් උනන්දුවක්‌ දක්‌වන ඔබ සැමට මේ උළෙලට සහභාගි වන ලෙස ආරාධනා කෙරේ. සියලු විමසීම් 0714834627 දුරකථන අංකයෙනි.

  11. SA Kumar Says:

    THERE IS ONLY ONE PERSON IN THIS COUNTRY WHO CAN, AND WILL ALWAYS REFER TO SRILANKANS AS *OUR PEOPLE*THAT ONE PERSON IS THE PRESIDENT OF SRI LANKA.- in which dictionary !!! Sinhala Modayas Dictionary ???

  12. Hiranthe Says:

    Indrajith,

    This is a good move by Shiyam Ganewatta to publish it in the right time.

    Patriots, we should buy multi copies and distribute free among the young generation those who are 50 / 50.

    S.A. Kumar,

    We appreciate your positive comment. you should inspire people from Velu’s human shield to vote against the separatism. Your contribution will save Mother Lanka. I hope MR will do wonders to develop the country as a whole, North to South, East to West. Poverty is our main enemy and common enemy. we have to defeat it together!!! To start with, we have to support MR camp!!

  13. SA Kumar Says:

    we have to support MR camp!- Sorry I can not MR not reliable president as He promised us We-Tamil before war 13 plus ( 13 +0.000001) than BS us .

  14. LANKAPUTHRA Says:

    Nice thing about Gomin is that he never replies to my comments.

  15. Susantha Wijesinghe Says:

    GOMIN NEVER REPLIES TO DOLTS.

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