By the Sri Lankan Solidarity Movement

We read the ICRC report of mid April-12th May, 2009 which was available on the internet at the time and it stated that, during four weeks upto 12th May, 2009, the ferry from Puthamathalan to Pulmuddai in Trincomalee which had a hospital manned by not only Sri Lankan doctors but Indian doctors too, around 12,000 persons (please check this figure, I am quoting from memory only since the rest of the analysis depends on this figure) were evacuated. Of this number, the report said that there were only 6000 patients and 6000 were a relative or a friend who were accompanying the patient. Of even the 6000 patients, half i.e. 3000 were due to normal illnesses such as fever, diarrhea, dysentery, pressure etc. just normal illnesses, and only half were conflict related injuries, according to the ICRC report. Therefore we can assume that the 3000 who were evacuated by ferry were LTTE cadres with conflict related injuries.

Two things are very clear from this. If there was such a huge emergency, why were half the evacuees just evacuated with normal illnesses only? This means there were only a maximum of 3000 conflict related injuries (of LTTE cadres I am sure) during this period i.e. one month. Also all injured persons would have been evacuated using the ICRC ferry since no one would keep an injured person in a makeshift hospital when a ferry was available to ferry them to a well equipped hospital. This  then means during the period of mid February to mid May, of three months,  only around 9000 conflict related injuries would have happened as a maximum. We can then infer that if there were 9000 conflict related injuries (who we assume were evacuated by the ICRC), then conflict related deaths would have been around 2000 conflict related deaths (taking into account a 1:4.5 ratio of conflict related deaths to conflict related injuries ratio). How did I come up with this ratio? The Maj. Gen. Kamal Gunaratne in his just released book says that 5600 Sri Lankan Forces were killed while 25,000 were injured from around 2007-2009. This provided me with the 1.4.5 ratio which should be similar for the LTTE terrorists, too. Realistically, this ratio can be taken as even 1:6.25. What is interesting is that Maj. Gen. Kamal Gunaratne says that between January-May 2009, around 2,500 Sri Lankan Army soldiers perished in the war. This figure can be compared with the analysis of the figure that perished on the LTTE side provided below.

This means that only 1400 or 2000 as an absolute maximum conflict related deaths happened on the LTTE side from February-May 2009 (this may actually have been lower than this). We know the fighting ended by 12th May, 2009 since the LTTE commenced letting the civilians go even by 11th May, 2009 itself. This means this figure is definitely the absolute maximum. However, once all the civilians were evacuated, the Sri Lankan Army did go after Prabhakaran and group and as we know that group perished and this means a further two or three hundred should be added to the 1400 or the 2000 figure.

That these figures are either correct or even less than this is corroborated by a group of patriotic Sri Lankans from the US I remember carried out a study of aerial photos of LTTE graveyards (where the LTTE buried anyone who died) in the entire areas where the conflict took place during the last three months inclusive of Puthamathalan and Puthukudiyurrupu earlier, and they went and visited all the LTTE graveyards at that time possibly in 2010 I cannot remember and someone wrote an article on this which I read, and it says that they observed all the  LTTE graveyards in this entire area and they counted all the graves inclusive of at Puthamattalan, Puthukudiyurrupu and elsewhere and all they could come up with is around 1300 or 1400. This corroborates with the conflict related deaths calculated using the ICRC data of evacuees as a reference. I think it was a lawyer, Mr. Dharshan Weerasekara, who wrote the article. It is best to contact him to obtain details of the article and the information gathered by the patriotic Sri Lankans from the US who carried out this study. Some of these graves please remember would even be of our Sri Lankan Army soldiers who died on the LTTE side of the frontlines.

As far as I can see, it is very likely that around 1400 LTTErs perished during February-May 2009. Another thing is civilians were only ever involved in the fighting even remotely only during the mid February to mid May period as a maximum. This is because as we know, once the Sri Lankan Army commenced advancing from Mannar, the LTTE quickly evacuated the entire Vanni civilians and made them travel deep into the Vanni inlands. Therefore, they were not anywhere near the fighting between the Sri Lankan Army and the LTTE until mid February-mid May, 2009.

The above proof from the ICRC report and the survey carried out of all LTTE graveyards in the entire area of mid February-mid May fighting tells us without a doubt that almost all deaths of possibly 1400 from mid February-mid May 2009 were of LTTE cadres. Since civilians were hardly nowhere near the Sri Lankan Army and LTTE frontlines prior to mid February 2009, we can infer that since most of the 1400 or so who perished were LTTErs, civilian deaths would only have been minimal possibly one or two hundred or so? We know that the LTTE fired at fleeing civilians fleeing towards the Sri Lankan Army held area prior to 12th May 2009, and killed around 100 civilians, possibly?

Does the above not prove that the US, EU, UK, Canada, Norway, Sweden etc.,  the UNSG, the OHCHR, the TNA, the LTTE supporting diaspora are making up utter lies in order to set up a war crimes trials against the Sri Lankan Army using anonymous witnesses (who’s identities will only be revealed in 20 years time) and via that somehow obtain their Eelam ?

One other thing, a figure which we saw in newspapers suggests that there were 350,000 persons within the human shield. What we know is that since the 1981 census, there has not been a census conducted in the Northern Province and in the Batticaloa District. In the 2001 census a partial census was carried out within Trincomalee and Ampara Districts. Therefore we cannot say for sure how many persons were made to flee by the LTTE since most of the population of the Mannar District and entire populations of the Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu Districts were made to flee by the LTTE. During the 1983-2009 period, within the LTTE held areas, it is the LTTE which provided the Sri Lankan Government with figures of persons living within areas controlled by them since the Sri Lankan Government provided provisions in terms of food etc. to the population within the LTTE held areas. However the LTTE would have provided inflated population figures in order to obtain a lot more supplies of food etc. from the stupid Sri Lankan Government, I am sure. Therefore even if we look at the various Ministries figures (who provided the provisions to the LTTE held areas), no one can vouch for their accuracy. Most probably they are inflated figures. Therefore how can anyone suggest that there were 350,000 for sure? We cannot suggest that or for that matter any other figure either. Please remember that during this long period, many persons would have relocated to the US, EU, UK, Canada, Sweden, Norway, India and elsewhere as asylum seekers and a few would have relocated to live in the South. Therefore we should not state definite figures such as 350,000 since this figure maybe used by Sri Lanka’s enemies to slap war crimes charges against our Sri Lankan Army.

What we know for sure is that around 293,000 civilians were evacuated and that 12,000 LTTE cadres surrendered. We also know that possibly 3,000 fled in boats to Western countries surreptitiously. This amounts to around 308,000 persons in total. However, from ICRC reports we know that around 36,000 persons were evacuated by ferry from Puthamathalan to Pulmuddai from mid February-mid May. Were other persons evacuated by the ICRC before mid February 2009 by use of land routes? If this 36,000 figure is added to the 308,000, then we come up with around 344,000 and if a few thousand were evacuated via land routes prior to that by the ICRC then it is around 350,000 most probably.

It is this kind of rational analysis which can ascertain the reality. However the US, EU, UK, Canada, Sweden, Norway, India, the UNHRC, the UNSG, the TNA, the LTTE diaspora only want to spread as much lies as possible, use anonymous witnesses, create bogus evidence so that war crimes charges are proved using bogus evidence. It is only then that they can obtain their Eelam. That it their goal and Sri Lanka should remain vigilant regarding this.