Courtesy The Daily News

Sri Lanka’s political story has never been short of twists and turns, especially since last year when a leader elected with a resounding majority, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, resigned paving the way for a nominated Parliamentarian, Ranil Wickremesinghe, to replace him. That drama is now set to continue.

There was some quiet on the political front last week as the nation celebrated Vesak. These were the first fully fledged Vesak celebrations in five years. Celebrations in 2019 were dampened by the Easter attacks, in the next two years due to the pandemic and last year due to the economic crisis.

Another reason for the lull in political activity was the absence of President Ranil Wickremesinghe who was away in Britain, attending the coronation of King Charles the Third. Being of a similar age, both the President and the King had to wait for several decades before reaching the pinnacle of power.

Despite the slow pace of political activity last week, there has been renewed interest in the possibility of elections. The polls that are being considered are the Presidential Elections that have to be held by October 2024 which, as per current constitutional provisions, cannot be expedited to an earlier date.

Setting the date for Presidential Elections and General Elections are the prerogative of the Executive President, under the terms of the Constitution. That they would do so at a time that would be to their advantage is an accepted norm. This is what President Wickremesinghe is reportedly keen to pursue.

Two former Presidents have exercised this privilege. In 1999, then President Chandrika Kumaratunga called Presidential Elections a year early, contested and won. In 2010, then President Mahinda Rajapaksa did the same. Rajapaksa tried to repeat the feat in 2015 but lost to Maithripala Sirisena.

Call for early elections

Those Presidential Polls were called early Under Article 31 of the Constitution. This allows the President to call for an early election. That too is allowed only after a four-year period of the first term of office and only if the incumbent President is standing for re-election for a second term of office.

However, the Constitution also decrees that these provisions apply only to an elected President. This is through a caveat to Article 31 which states that a person elected as President by Parliament to serve the remainder of the term of another, is not entitled to exercise the right to an early election.

President Wickremesinghe belongs to this category and constitutionally, as of now, he would not be able to call an election earlier than October 2024, so a new President could be in office by November 2024, when the President’s current term of office ends. This has created a constitutional conundrum.

The matter has been raised and discussed at the highest levels of Government. There is a school of thought that President Wickremesinghe’s popularity is on the rise and that the prospects of being elected at a Presidential Poll are best if the election is held early rather than in October 2024.

This is due to several reasons. The first is the public perception of the President as the person who ensured a smooth transition of power following the tumultuous last days of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s Presidency. He is credited with restoring the rule of law after a few days of near anarchy last July.

Then, the President is also perceived as bringing some balance to the economy. The last days of Rajapaksa’s rule were identified with queues for gas and fuel and power cuts. The economy has not made a complete recovery yet but such shortages are no longer seen and there is a sense of stability.

There is also an acknowledgement among the masses that President Wickremesinghe stepped into the breach with no conditions attached when Rajapaksa resigned. The astute politician in him may have seen an opportunity but nevertheless, it was a gamble that other politicians feared to take at that time.

Amidst all these reasons why an early Presidential Poll will be best for President Wickremesinghe, is arguably another compelling factor. That is the disarray the collective Opposition and even the President’s partner in Government, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), finds itself in at present.

At the beginning of this year, there was some tangible momentum in favour of the Opposition, most notably the main Opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), now in its latest incarnation as the more inclusive National Peoples’ Power (NPP).

As the date first announced for the Local Government elections, March 9, drew near, that momentum was seized mostly by the NPP. It conducted rallies criss-crossing the country and attracted large and enthusiastic crowds. Its leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake was spoken of as presidential material.

The elections never eventuated. The Government has cited a lack of finances to conduct the poll. Several attempts by Opposition parties to compel the Elections Commission to hold the election through court orders have ended in a stalemate. They have now been postponed indefinitely.

Opposition parties have been critical of this approach by the Government and the President who are accused of stifling democracy. What the Opposition has found to their consternation is that, with the indefinite postponement of the polls, the support they enjoyed has now dissipated and disappeared.

The other factor that is to President Wickremesinghe’s advantage is the absence of a leader of national stature who can mount a challenge to the President. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa is not eligible to contest. Former President Maithripala Sirisena is under a cloud due to the Easter attacks.

That narrows down potential serious contenders to Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa and NPP Leader Dissanayake. Premadasa’s leadership credentials are being seriously questioned after he refused Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s offer of the premiership and following internal divisions in the SJB.

Premadasa is reportedly facing the prospect of a revolt in his own party. There are reports that a faction would soon join the President by accepting Cabinet portfolios. Even if this group does not constitute a majority of the SJB, it would significantly dent Premadasa’s image as a strong leader.

There have even been suggestions that, if President Wickremesinghe succeeds in wooing a sizeable number of SJB MPs to join the Government, Premadasa would have no choice but to acquiesce to joining the Government as a party or risk being left with a handful of MPs who remain loyal to him.

The NPP has a different problem to contend with. It spent much time, resources and finances on the Local Government election campaign, hoping it can win and thereby generate the momentum that would carry it to victory at the next Presidential and General Elections. That has been all in vain now.

The NPP realises that it cannot indefinitely sustain a campaign for an election that will not be held in the near future. It is struggling to restore public confidence in the party as economic hardships recede. As a result, Anura Kumara Dissanayake is no longer the political hero he was a few months ago.

support for President

It is no secret that some Cabinet Ministers see their political futures being better under President Wickremesinghe rather than with a SLPP candidate because the party’s popularity is not at its peak. Among them, some have openly indicated their support for the President to be a ‘common’ candidate.

The SLPP leadership group- consisting of the Rajapaksa family- has been silent on the issue. Among potential nominees, Basil Rajapaksa would have to renounce his United States citizenship to contest. It is doubtful whether Namal Rajapaksa wants to stake a claim when his party is not so popular.

For all these inducements for President Wickremesinghe to call for an early Presidential Election, he still has to overcome the constitutional hurdle cited earlier. That can only be achieved by an amendment to the Constitution for which he would require a two-thirds majority in Parliament.

Chances are that the President will throw down the gauntlet at the Opposition which has been stridently complaining about the postponement of Local Elections. He could present a constitutional amendment and request that they support it because it would bring early Presidential Polls, no less.

This political drama will resume after the President returns to the country. A first step, reports suggest is the replacement of Governors in several provinces, where provincial councils are non-functional. Slowly but steadily, it appears that the stage is being set for 2023 to become an election year.