Dilrook Kannangara

In an unprecedented development, US Democratic Congresswoman Deborah Ross (NC) and US Republican Congressman Bill Johnson (OH) introduced a bipartisan Resolution last week calling for a referendum for Eelam Tamils to be democratically and equitably represented” as well as a lasting peaceful political solution”.

This has been played down by local news media for obvious reasons. However, it is a serious matter. The resolution may or may not pass the US Congress but it is only a start of what will be a series of US attempts to push for a referendum for Tamil Eelam – a separate nation for Tamils in the island of Sri Lanka. What is more worrying is the initial resolution has bipartisan support from both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party though the exact number of congresspersons backing it is yet to be seen. As mentioned above, this will not be the last of its kind if it fails this time. USA will continue to push for a referendum for Tamil Eelams over and over again.

Interestingly this came at a time when the US president was meeting the Indian PM at the G7 Summit held in Hiroshima, Japan. This is the happy convergence of US and Indian interests. Both nations and QUOD alliance benefit from the creation of Tamil Eelam.

Sri Lanka must have a Plan A and a Plan B (more important than Plan A) to minimize the damage, ensure equal rights and equity. Insane utopian solutions (unfortunately the most popular kind of solutions among loud patriots) will only lead to the creation of multiple Tamil Eelams within the island while their hunt imaginary geese (peace).

Plan A – Resist All Attempts to Hold a Referendum to Divide the Island Nation Without Compromises

Most Sri Lankans today would not support the division of the island nation into multiple nations. It will cause inconvenience and possibly violence too going by similar events in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, East Timor, Sudan, etc. For this reason, Sri Lanka must resist holding a referendum to appease separatists.

However, the demand to hold a referendum may be a red herring to cover up a more sinister plan – using it to terrorize the government and the people to extort undue favours for the Tamil community at the expense of others. This is far worse than the division of the island nation.

Firstly, because it creates inequity, unequal rights, injustice to ethnic Sinhalas and Muslims. Secondly, such inequity leads to civil unrest and clashes. Thirdly, such targeted appeasements for the Tamil community will economically deprive 84% of the population resulting in a severe economic downturn. Fourthly, even if these compromises are given to appease separatists to remain within one nation, they will extort whatever they can and again demand Tamil Eelam a year later. This has been the separatist extortion cycle since 1985 Thimpu Talks. These compromises have ruined Sri Lanka economically, politically and militarily.

Plan B –Tamil Eelam to Essentially Accompany Sinhala-Only Eelam

If for some reason it comes to the creation of Tamil Eelam, equity and fair play must ensure. The US resolution calls for it to be democratically and equitably represented”. Total Tamil population percentage is 15.5% and equity dictates Tamil Eelam can only be 15.5% of the island. Anything more is a trespass on others’ rights. This 15.5% of Tamils include Tamils in Colombo, Kandy, Nuwara-Eliya and other districts outside the north and east too. If they are to remain in these districts, the territory of Tamil Eelam must be equitably reduced to reflect this fact. As 55% of all Tamils live outside the north and east, only 7% of the island nation should be carved out for Tamil Eelam (15.5% times 45%). Otherwise, all Tamils living outside the north and east must be relocated to the north and east to make up 15.5% of the island to be carved out for Tamil Eelam.

The north and east make up 28% of the island nation by landmass. As per the 1987 Indo-Lanka Peace Accord to which Sri Lanka is a signatory accepted the north and east to be the traditional place of abode of Tamil speaking peoples which includes Muslims (10%) of the population. Therefore, Muslims should also be relocated to the north and east to make up the entire northern and eastern provinces into Tamil Eelam (minus 1.5% of the landmass as their total will be 26.5%). That is equitable and fair under the circumstances.

Solution from Hell – Inequity and Greed

However, ultra greedy and racist elements would not agree to equity and fairness. They will want to live on both sides. This will ruin the entirety of what remains. A second round and a third round of Tamil Eelam will emerge within a few years and the rest of the island will be again salami sliced to smaller and smaller pieces.

Not following Plan B in the event of Tamil Eelam will automatically result in this (the solution from hell). Going by the misfortunes that befell Sri Lanka in the past due to too much kindness, compassion and lunacy, it is very likely that this will be the final solution for Sri Lanka. It must be avoided at any and all cost. All other nations used every means at human disposal to avoid inequitable division and Sri Lankans must do same.

All economic resources in the north are enjoyed by one community and almost all economic resources of the east are enjoyed by two communities. This is the case even today! With Tamil Eelam, things will get worse. 73.5% of the population must have exclusive access to 73.5% of the island in the case of division as 26.5% of the population will have exclusive rights to 26.5% of the island post-Tamil Eelam.

US Strategic Requirements

USA is desperately searching for another expendable population like Ukraine in the Indo-Pacific. Attempts to woo Japan, Australia, India, ASEAN nations, East African nations, South Korea and Taiwan failed. None wanted to end up like Ukraine. The search has expanded and Sri Lanka is a definite candidate. However, two Sri Lankan ethnic groups are difficult to manipulate due to severe sufferings from NATO-QUAD military moves against them in the past. One ethnic group has been favoured by NATO-QUAD nations for the past 200 years and they are the best bet. Even during the war, all funds received by the LTTE, EROS, PLOT, etc. came from NATO-QUOD nations. The entire Tamil Diaspora lives in NATO-QUOD nations. These are powerful levers to control the Tamil community in the island. In addition, Tamil terrorist groups had the world best naval wing of all terrorist groups in the world. This is an enormous advantage for the US maritime strategy against China’s commercial shipping fleet. After Blackwater, USA is yet to have a serious non-state actor to advance its military moves against civilian targets.

In the long term, Diego Garcia and other US island bases will be increasingly affected by rising sea levels. The north and east of Sri Lanka is much larger than all US island bases in the world combined. It can safely sustain a very large military and cannon fodder presence.

Creation of Tamil Eelam also benefits India as it will be administered by India as part of Tamil Nadu state. Tamil Eelam will be a huge military and economic power projection platform for India. It will also resolve the simmering fisheries dispute between Tamil Nadu and northern Sri Lanka.

NATO-QUOD plan also includes creating multiple Tamil Eelams in the island in future if the seven provinces as a new nation fails to assert their own right of self determination and equity by relocating people equitably and based on ethnicity into Tamil Eelam and Sinhala nation. This makes the case for unceasing war in the island.

Sri Lanka’s poverty, economic calamity, bankruptcy and continuing negative economic growth rate will push Sri Lanka to accept the least confrontational path when USA pushes for Tamil Eelam. It did not happen by chance. This is the result of a craftly devised plan since 2009. Over 81% of Sri Lanka’s foreign debt is held by NATO-QUAD nations. It must not come as a surprise to anyone. As Sri Lanka is unable to repay this huge amount of money (approximately $40 billion) due to NATO-QUOD nations, the inability will be used as a bargaining tool to get Sri Lanka to agree to their terms.   

Conclusion

Sri Lanka is facing economic coercion, political pressure and gunboat diplomacy from NATO-QUOD nations to give up part of its territory to create an expendable nation like Ukraine in the Indo-Pacific. However, this is not the end of the plan. This is just part 1. Part 2 is to further divide the rest of Sri Lanka (the seven provinces outside the north and east) for Tamil Eelam Part 2, Part 3 and so on. While it is imperative that Sri Lanka resists all attempts to create Tamil Eelam in the first place, putting all eggs in one basket is a sure recipe for disaster. A Plan B is essential. Otherwise, most islanders are going to lose absolutely everything, not just the north and east. It must be avoided at all cost.