If NPP Government Cannot Fix Sri Lanka, No One Can
Posted on December 4th, 2024
Dilrook Kannangara
NPP government received the largest percentage of votes in any parliamentary election in South Asia. What is more important is its mandate came from all ethnic and religious groups. It won all except one district. With 159 seats in parliament, it is the only party ever to rule Sri Lanka without a coalition. In addition, unlike some leaders in the past, NPP leaders have no foreign travel restrictions, war crimes or serious human rights violation allegations against them. They have no corruption or other criminal cases in courts of law against them. Compared to all previous ruling parties, the NPP has the highest number of professionals as MPs. Only NPP unified the north, south, east, west and the hill country for the first and only time in over 550 years. Impressive in every way.
This puts the NPP government in a commanding position to fix manyfold problems affecting Sri Lanka.
If the NPP government cannot fix Sri Lanka’s problems, obviously no one else can.
The question of experience is irrelevant. Experienced politicians bankrupted and bloodied the nation, literally and at every level of meaning of those words. Besides, by the time of the next parliamentary election, NPP MPs and ministers will be the most experienced in the island. The others in active politics will be far less experienced in managing ministries, etc. by then.
However, the real questions are, can Sri Lanka be saved, can Sri Lanka truly develop and can Sri Lanka be truly peaceful?
A dispassionate, honest and expert analysis of all aspects of Sri Lanka suggests that it cannot. Root causes of problems facing the nation are far bigger than the capabilities of all political, economic and social power Sri Lanka can muster. From an economic front, the three evils cannot be overcome.
Trade deficit since 1977 – the gap between export earnings and import expense (negative)
Budget deficit since 1991 – the gap between government revenue and expenditure (negative)
Debt trap since 2013 – the inability to repay debt without further borrowing
With an economy of $84 billion and a total loan balance of $102 billion, Sri Lanka needs at least a GDP growth rate of 6% to repay interest and not do anything else additionally. A 14% annual GDP growth is needed to repay loans and interest and not do anything else additionally. Impossible. An annual GDP growth of over 16% is needed to achieve all this and develop the country where people feel some development takes place. Absolutely not possible to achieve.
A very rare opportunity is there to overcome some of these challenges with radical and drastic measures. However, taking these measures will fracture ethnic harmony, national security and public loyalty towards Sri Lanka.
And these are only Sri Lanka-specific challenges. There are global challenges including climate change and climate change action (both cost money, lives and livelihoods), ageing population, increasing hostility between superpowers and economic sanctions and counter sanctions crisscrossing international trade. How Sri Lanka can navigate all these challenges and develop itself is beyond reality.