KELUM BANDARA Courtesy The Daily Mirror

The government’s action has now created a launching pad for the Opposition to form an alliance

In politics, even the right action has to be taken at the right time

The arrest and remanding of former President Ranil Wickremesinghe has become the talking point of politics

Almost all the political parties in the Opposition stood in solidarity with each other to secure bail

The arrest of Mr. Wickremesinghe has now become a unifying factor for the Opposition.

In recent Sri Lankan political history, there were watershed moments that changed the directions of governments. 

The past governments sometimes experienced such defining moments when they were at the peak of popularity. The immediate impact of them was minimal, rather invisible. Nevertheless, it started becoming visible in the long run changing the course of government and ensuring its downfall in the end. 

Such defining events only sowed seeds to be sprouted up later when conditions develop in favour.

For example, the 2010/2015 Mahinda Rajapaksa government took a radical decision to impeach then Chief Justice Shirani Bandaranayake. She was impeached according to the procedure laid down in the Constitution. A Parliamentary Select Committee was appointed to hear charges framed against her. 

Afterwards, a motion was presented in Parliament. She was stripped of her post with the approval of that motion by two-thirds in the House. 

The Mahinda Rajapaksa government was at the peak of its popularity in the wake of war victory. There was no major public backlash against the government in the immediate aftermath, although it offered ammunition to the then Opposition to take on the ruling side. 

No matter what, the impeachment of the then Chief Justice turned out to be a fatal political mistake for the then government years down the line.

It infuriated the legal fraternity. Meddling with judicial independence and alienation of professional groups are a clear recipe for electoral disaster for any government.

The impeachment was widely interpreted as an assault on judicial independence. The Opposition amplified its protesting voice against the Rajapaksa government. Infringement of the rule of law was one key allegation that led to the downfall of the Mahinda Rajapaksa government in 2015. 

The Yahapalana government succeeded the Rajapaksa rule. It was established with the promise to restore the rule of law and root out corruption and fraud. 

The Rajapaksa government faced a lot of criticism over that.

Less than two months into office, the Central Bank bond scam occurred on February 27, 2015 rupturing the foundation of the Yahapalana (Yahapalana is the Sinhala word for good governance) government which professed the anti-corruption approach as the cornerstone of running the country. 

It was a turning point for that government, a government elected on a platform of eradication of corruption and restoration of the rule of law.

The Gotabaya Rajapaksa government that followed also made policy errors leading to its abrupt end in 2022.

Popularity of the current government is now on the wane. It was proven at the last local authorities’ election. The ruling National People’s Power (NPP)’s vote share has significantly dropped by about two million compared to the last general election conducted last year.

The government is now about to complete its first year in office. 

Its recent decision- the arrest and remanding of former President Ranil Wickremesinghe- has become the talking point of politics.

It is now a case before court. Hence, it is not time for anyone to discuss merits and demerits of the case until court proceedings are over. 

Still, the event bears political significance, for sure. His arrest and incarceration were unexpected, and therefore it was a shock to his camp. Whispers of such an eventuality had long been in circulation, though.

The Opposition parties remained scattered up until then despite attempts being made in certain political corners to unify them as a viable alternative to the government. Mr. Wickremesinghe’s arrest suddenly turned out to be a rallying cry for them.

Almost all the political parties in the Opposition stood in solidarity with each other to secure bail for Mr. Wickremesinghe. 

The arrest was seen by the Opposition as a major attempt by the government to stifle democracy and silence dissent. The old dictum ‘united we stand, divided we fall’ now resonates among them. They were meeting for quite some time to forge unity . In the wake of Mr. Wickremesinghe’s arrest, they have now felt a sense of urgency to form a broad alliance.

 However, in politics, political parties come together or part ways under circumstances. There are no permanent friends or enemies in politics. When interests merge, it will decide who should forge ties with whom. In Sri Lankan politics, what was perceived as impossible had happened in the past. At one point, it remained unimaginable for many that the NPP would win national elections. Yet, it was a reality last year.

The coming together of the opposition parties, at this time of crisis, is understandable. The situation demands them to be together. 

For them, it is solidarity in time of crisis. Now, they try to strengthen this unity for a possible alliance in view of future elections. However, it is riddled with challenges. Current unity has been forged in the heat of a single issue.

In the future, they have to face practical questions of leadership, policy direction, and electoral strategy. The opposition alliance in the making has to grapple with several challenges.

 Who will be the face of such an alliance? Each party carries its own leader with ambitions and followers. Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) is the main party in the opposition. Its leader Sajith Premadasa did not see eye to eye with Mr. Wickremesinghe in the past. Following the latter’s arrest, Mr. Premadasa expressed solidarity. Who will be the leader in case the two parties merged in an alliance?

The government’s action has now created a launching pad for the opposition to form an alliance in the future. The government’s declining popularity provides fertile ground for such an opposition platform. However, its gradual progression into a well-knit alliance will depend on how the government performs in the months to come.

The arrest of Mr. Wickremesinghe has now become a unifying factor for the Opposition. These parties had a meeting on August 27 and decided to stand together in the face of repressive actions by the government. 

More and more parties and individuals will be invited to join the Opposition. The event has turned out to be a trigger point for the Opposition to converge. 

For the government, Mr. Wickremesinghe’s arrest is an ill-advised action in that sense. 

In politics, even the right action has to be taken at the right time. If anyone takes the right action but at the wrong time, he or she will fall flat on the ground in politics.