Dr Sarath Obeysekera

The world is once again moving towards a period of geopolitical uncertainty. Conflicts in the Middle East and tensions among major powers are beginning to disrupt global supply chains. While the headlines focus on military developments and oil prices, another silent crisis may soon emerge — the global shortage of fertiliser.

Sri Lanka has already experienced the painful consequences of agricultural policy mistakes. The sudden fertiliser ban introduced under the administration of Gotabaya Rajapaksa triggered a dramatic drop in agricultural production, particularly in rice and tea. The resulting food shortages and loss of export income contributed significantly to the broader economic crisis that engulfed the country.

Today, the danger is different but equally serious.

Modern agriculture depends heavily on imported fertilisers such as urea, potash and phosphate. Much of the world’s fertiliser supply is linked to energy markets and is produced in regions vulnerable to geopolitical conflict. When wars disrupt shipping routes, increase energy costs or trigger sanctions, fertiliser prices rise rapidly and supplies become uncertain.

Sri Lanka, unfortunately, appears to have learnt little from recent experience. There is no clear indication that the government has built sufficient fertiliser reserves to protect farmers against a potential global supply disruption. If shipments are delayed or prices spike, the coming cultivation seasons could face serious difficulties.

Farmers cannot wait until the last moment. Paddy cultivation cycles depend on timely fertiliser availability. Even a short delay can reduce yields significantly. A shortage would not only affect rural incomes but could once again threaten national food security.

Countries that have learned from recent crises are quietly stockpiling essential agricultural inputs. Strategic reserves of fertiliser, much like strategic petroleum reserves, are increasingly seen as necessary buffers against global instability.

Sri Lanka must act with urgency. The government should immediately assess national fertiliser requirements for the next two cultivation seasons and secure adequate stocks while global supplies are still accessible. Diversifying import sources and encouraging local organic supplementation may help, but these measures must be implemented gradually and scientifically.

The lesson from the recent crisis is clear. Agriculture is not merely an economic sector — it is the foundation of national stability. Food security, farmer livelihoods and economic resilience are deeply interconnected.

If global tensions escalate and fertiliser supplies tighten, Sri Lanka must not once again find itself unprepared.

Preparedness today will prevent crisis tomorrow.

Regards

Dr Sarath Obeysekera